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Old 26th Jun 2017, 11:10
  #4881 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by cumbrianboy
I know CFR showed good growth but good% growth on a low basic load factor still leds to a low load factor.
Actually good% growth on a low basic load factor normally leads to an improved load factor.
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Old 26th Jun 2017, 11:50
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Was not an ATR42 brought in for winter 15/16?
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Old 26th Jun 2017, 14:37
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Anyone fancy leasing a '42 and taking on the Caen and Groningen routes from SEN? There'll soon be a gap in the market for the bold and optimistic.......
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Old 26th Jun 2017, 15:43
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Isn't the ATR42 pretty much the same cost-wise as the ATR72 except for the second flight attendant ? (hence why the ATR42 is only selling small number for niche applications these days). Of course capital costs are another issue if the choice is between a knackered- written-down 1990 vintage ATR42-300 and a factory-fresh ATR72-600, but generally speaking the operating costs should not be that different - with the ATR72 giving the airline additional flexibility to cover peak-time demand.
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Old 26th Jun 2017, 15:57
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The initial route negotiations were based upon the ATR42 both because its capacity seemed appropriate and also the ownership costs of new ATR72s were considered too great to be viable on such routes as CFR, GRQ and RNS.

I would agree that if ownership costs were similar the additional cost of using the 72 would probably not be too much above that of the 42.
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Old 26th Jun 2017, 18:46
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All things being equal a switch to a ATR42 would see passenger numbers drop. The 42ish per flight is an average of course so some flights will be much busier, some much emptier. If you cap seats at 48, that is your new maximum. You would lose X pax. Also in theory you would be losing revenue from pax that would have bought the more expensive seats on the full flights.
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Old 26th Jun 2017, 19:16
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What makes you all think that GRQ, RNS and CFR will be dropped? With the exception of the booking system, there is no clue at all that this routes will be dropped.
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Old 26th Jun 2017, 20:05
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Because RNS is on sale, just at reduced frequency. GRQ and CFR are not, and there is no scope to add them as the aircraft is doing MAN thrice daily.
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Old 26th Jun 2017, 21:48
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Shame Stobart couldn't find another ATR and continue those routes. At the end of the day, it's their decision, and whether it's right or wrong remains to be seen.
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Old 26th Jun 2017, 22:01
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will look at the bottom of the garden and behind the shed,once iv cut the stinging nettles and brambles down
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Old 26th Jun 2017, 23:41
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ATR's are the largest part of Stobart Air's DNA. If they wanted another ATR, they would certainly be able to obtain one.
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Old 27th Jun 2017, 06:59
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AirportPlanner

I agree with you that the 72 gives you more potential in terms of gross revenue. However if it enables you to enjoy, say, 15% more revenue and yet your costs are 20% greater than on the 42 that hasn't helped your profitability. There are obviously some routes where the smaller aircraft is better suited and I think CFR and GRQ are among those. The smaller aircraft also enables you to offer greater flight frequency which can be a major contributor to a route's success.
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Old 27th Jun 2017, 07:31
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Expressflight

15% increase in revenue could be a greater sum than the 20% increase in cost.

However, there have been many posts on this thread about having the right aircraft for the job, so, given your knowledge, I think you definitely have a point.

I think there's a 'new broom' element at work here. 'Out with the old' etc. Seems to me the baby could be being thrown out with the bathwater.
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Old 27th Jun 2017, 08:06
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Originally Posted by DC3 Dave
Expressflight

15% increase in revenue could be a greater sum than the 20% increase in cost.
Good point.
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Old 27th Jun 2017, 12:17
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According to regional news channel RTV Drenthe in the Netherlands, Flybe/Stobart will keep flying between Groningen and Southend in the winter. According to this article, the weekly frequency will go from 8x/week to 6x/week: the six evening flights (daily except Saturday) will continue, only the Tuesday and Thursday morning flights would be cancelled.

The flights will be added to the booking system this week, according to a Groningen Airport spokesperson.

Ochtendvluchten lijndienst tussen Londen en Eelde verdwijnen - RTV Drenthe
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Old 27th Jun 2017, 12:35
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The article also mentions that the route funding has expired and that now the airport will provide "marketing support". So probably some sort of power game involving a threat to axe the flights.
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Old 27th Jun 2017, 13:26
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Which all highlights the risk of jumping to premature conclusions...

If the GRQ route continues they will need an extra ATR at SEN because there is no space for an extra rotation by the aircraft planned for MAN and RNS.

Just a thought (maybe irrelevant )when is the expiry of the lease of those two -500s to Flybe for IoM services?
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Old 27th Jun 2017, 14:02
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If true I think this represents a change of mind on the part of Stobart. Everything I had heard up to now indicated that CFR and GRQ would definitely be dropped for the winter.

It will certainly be interesting to see where the capacity to operate the flights comes from.
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Old 27th Jun 2017, 14:27
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The IOM contract is 18 months into a 5 year deal, so 3 and half years left. The 500s won't be back at SEN anytime soon (unless the IOM changes to a 600 base)
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Old 27th Jun 2017, 15:01
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Whatever is actually happening on GRQ this winter CFR will definitely not be operating.
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