Flybe - 7

[OltonPete]

Oslo

SWBKCB

Cheers, fading memory I'm afraid. I must admit it didn't sound right but I thought there was one BHX - Scandinavian flight that dropped into Newcastle for a short period.

However those figures are pretty awful but I am sure will give Oslo a good chance. I suppose you could say that the times favour the UK originating pax but fingers crossed that this one works.

Pete

[Daza]

BHX-OSL

Thanks for the figures as always OP, they make interesting reading.
A few observations about Flybe Oslo

Flybe will be flying to Oslo's main international airport with its connections to the city (fast train and public transport) and flights the rest of Norway/Scandinavia. Torp which is some 130kms away (like landing in Coventry being told its London) is less attractive to all.

An 88 seater 175 is easier to fill than a 189 seat 737-800 much too big for the route to have operated more than two or three times a week.

Flybe are much more well know than Duo, who after their separation from Bacon were virtually unknown. Flybe with their large presence in the Midlands (also in the East Midlands) will certainly be in a better position to market the route. Pete I do agree that a daily flight requires a lot of bums on seats (1232 week) but, the frequency will attract business passengers too.
I do hope the route sells well and there are some really good prices. I have been to Oslo many years ago a beautiful city for a short break.

[LN-KGL]

You also have to take in to account as Duo flew to OSL the airport had only 13.6 million yearly passengers (2003). In 2013 OSL had grown to 23.0 million yearly passengers. If we look at international passengers there were 5.7 million in 2003 and in 2013 the number had more than doubled to 12.4 million.

If we look to the other Midlands, Sterling Airlines flew to EMA from OSL between October 2007 and August 2008 (ended flights a couple of months before they ceased operation) and the result was 16,893 passengers flown during this period. I don't remember how many flights they had per week, but most flights with were with ex. Maersk Air B73Gs (a connection with Duo Airways).

I did fly with Sterling the first day they flew on 29 October 2007 - from EMA to OSL. My thoughts at that time was to fly with them as soon as possible, because this could not last long - exactly one year later to the date, 29 October 2008, Sterling went bankrupt. Even closer to a bankruptcy date happened on 30 April 2004. We were three visiting BHX to get photos of Duo Airways in action for an article for an American magazine. Little did we know that this date was the last day of Duo Airways operation - that we learned early next morning at a hotel in Chester.

I guess I will be flying with flybe to BHX from my home airport OSL one of the first days, not because I want to visit Birmingham, not because I have not flown to BHX before (I have flown to/from 46 UK airports and BHX was one of the earliest), not because I have not flown with flybe before, but because I have not flown with one of their E175s yet (I have flown with SF340, Do328, Q400 and E195 in their colours - and the last flight with flybe was from BHX to EDI with an E195 in September last year). I guess I also need to add another aircraft type in flybe colours on this same trip - the Stobart Air ATR72-600 from SEN. My first trip from SEN was with their once weekly Q400 flight to JER in mid August 2009. A bit over one year later I flew another strange flybe route EDI-MSE. Sad Manston now seems to be something of past. The company I work for is looking in to starting a biotech plant only a few miles from Manston airport. One stop flights from OSL via AMS to MSE would have been much better than a flight to LHR or LGW and then linger along M25 before hiting M2 and 70 mph is a possibility.

[getonittt]

"Having said that, it wouldn't take much for EZY to come in and take a piece of the pie themselves "

Actually I think it would. The key to success for operating these routes is frequency and flybe have taken that factor into account and offer at least daily or 6 a week on most routes . If another airline wanted to elbow their way in they would have to commit at least half a dozen aircraft to set up a BHX operation, without the incentives from the airport for new route start up's which Flybe are enjoying.

More off topic ~ BHX-OSL was a originally operated by Birmingham European Airways with BAC1-11's and operated into the old Fornebu airport , pax figures were rarely into double figures those days.

[cornishsimon]

Sounds like the majority of the NQY routes are selling well this summer, prices on some of the MAN & LGW services are stupidly high or even sold out !


MAN is even with the increased second service on Saturdays.


Good for Flybe and good for NQY. Summer time is when all need to make the most of the punters on routes into Cornwall.




cs

[GCILover]

Does anyone know why SOU is the only UK airport that they haven't announced flights after January for?????

[cornishsimon]

Don't the schedules get trickle fed ?
ie not all released in one batch ?

Checking MAN-NQY a couple of days ago they had only released up until January, and now march.


cs

[callumm92]

Flybe's new management said they wanted to focus on their core markets - and they're certainly doing that at BHX with a big expansion. SOU has stagnated for a while, but they're still very dominant there. LCY seems a bit of a gamble, and I'm not sure I see it succeeding - happy to be proven wrong though.

If another airline wanted to elbow their way in they would have to commit at least half a dozen aircraft to set up a BHX operation

With their BHX expansion, you're right that Flybe have set themselves up quite well. As with any business it would, however, be dangerous to get complacent. Whilst I wouldn't go as far as to predict a mass EZY (or indeed any other competitor) invasion, there is the potential for flights from other bases as a starting point.

Anyway, I think I'm perhaps being a bit negative! I think the new Flybe management do have some good ideas, they're executing a turnaround plan true to their word, and I do wish them well.

[kcockayne]

GCILover

I don't KNOW anything about this, but I was told by a BEE insider that they could be moving to EGHH.
I posted about this a few months ago.
Could it be true ?

[johnnychips]

I don't KNOW anything about this, but I was told by a BEE insider that they could be moving to EGHH.
I posted about this a few months ago.
Could it be true ?

Why on earth would they unless it's for ridiculously better terms?

Southampton is a big, business-oriented city in the middle of a good catchment area (including the Bournemouth area). The airport is near the city centre.

Bournemouth is a nice enough place, but it is on the extremities of urban populations, and the airport is inconveniently out of the centre.

I doubt runway length is an issue with Flybe either.

[GCILover]

I used to work for them and was also advised of this potential move.


Apparently FLYBE have told SOU, drop your charges or we're off. Whilst SOU is one of their biggest bases, I'm led to believe it is also a reason for a huge amount of their losses.

[Phileas Fogg]

SOU can charge more because it has an airport rail station connecting it with London.

What does BOH have besides beautiful countryside and nice beaches?

[Crazy Voyager]

But if Flybee move into LCY, do they need the rail connection? Could that be part of the reason they moved into City in the first place?

[Phileas Fogg]

But if Flybee move into LCY, do they need the rail connection? Could that be part of the reason they moved into City in the first place?

For anyone living in the London suburbs, the home counties, indeed central London, to travel to/from LCY for inflated fares can be a pain in the butt.

The SOU rail station doesn't just serve London, it serves rail stations both north and south, I've previously been a criticizer of SOU for it's restricted length runway and other facilities but having, in a previous life, worked for Air UK I came to realise that SOU is a money winner whereas, pretty much, BOH is a loser.

I suggest FlyBE talking of a move to BOH is an MOL style "toys out of the pram" tantrum in attempt to lower fees, if FlyBE aren't making enough money from their SOU operations then FlyBE's beancounters need to get their act together with their routes and fares structure, if one's business structure is failing then try looking in the mirror rather than blaming it upon others.

[Flitefone]

Flybe has a number of challenges as an airline, which they are working hard to address. Not least seat mile costs. The Embraer 190 are leaving the fleet because they cannot compete against the lower seat costs of the Ryanair B737 and the Ezy A320 that operate to similar destinations. Wherever Flybe try to compete on routes that RYR/EZY can operate, they lose. The costs are too high and the pockets are not deep enough.

Southampton is a large base, but it is constrained by runway length and by the costs and route profiles of the aircraft that can operate there.

Passengers like to use local airports, lets say those within a one hour drive.

So for example if you live in Poole, both SOU and BOH are local. People will take the convenience and sometime cost penalty of a local airport over a less convenient option two hours drive away such as BRS, LGW and LHR.

Now let's consider a resident of Winchester, the back yard of SOU. The local airports for you are still BOH and SOU, but also LHR... Even BRS & LGW is not such a hassle. That's a lot of airline and airport competition for Flybe.

So Flybe is competing with lots of airports from SOU, with aircraft that can't compete on cost for sun routes, but with aircraft that can offer a schedule and airport convenience advantage. That's why Edinburgh, Dublin and Amsterdam work from SOU, but the sun routes come and go.

BOH on the other hand offers a similar catchment, because of the longer runway, the ability to operate larger aircraft that can compete on sun routes and has less sales spillage risk to LHR, LGW and BRS.

But without the smaller lower cost aircraft, BOH cannot offer the frequencies. That is also why the 100k pax that used to use the BOH/DUB route now use SOU/DUB.

Yes SOU has the railway and the motorway, but that also means it's quicker to get to other airports too. Even so, I bet that the majority of outbound SOU pax originate either in Southampton or to the west and Southwest of the city. In other words people that are further away from LHR and LGW both of which offer a range of destinations, costs and frequencies that neither SOU nor BOH can ever dream to match.

So any story that has Flybe operating from BOH has merit, it offers Flybe more flexibility and a catchment similar to SOU, but with less risk from competition. Even so, the story is also likely to be the stick that is used by Flybe to negotiate better charges from SOU.

[davidjohnson6]

If Flybe is ditching the E190 aircraft, that says they don't intend to fly routes where a 100-130 seat aircraft is appropriate until at least 2017, so they either stick with E170s and Q400s or move to a B737/A319
If they stick solely with E170s and Q400s, is opening up at Bournemouth still credible ? Additionally, are Flybe's finances strong enough to buy A319s / B737s ? Would they look at a C Series ?

A threat to move to BOH and extract lower fees at SOU will work only if SOU management believe Flybe is prepared to carry through with their threat.

[Lord Spandex Masher]

A 319 costs 60% of the 195 to lease. So, yes.

[GCILover]

Is the runway really that much of an issue as they claim. I remember the good old days of the 757 going direct to TFS

[Lord Spandex Masher]

With how many punters?

[TartinTon]

The 757 is a different animal. Grossly overpowered for it's size and so has an operational range and flexibility much better than the A320/737 (smaller series).
It's also very thirsty and very expensive to operate.

The game-changer could be the C series with a significant operating cost advantage and a superior range according to the Bombardier specs.

I would imagine that Flybe are currently engaged in discussions with Bombardier around Q400/C series options that may be available to them.