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Old 24th Apr 2014, 04:45
  #81 (permalink)  
 
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Speed? You make it sounds like the Ejet is an hour and a half quicker. The sector times over the distance from EDI to LCY will be 5-10 minutes different, maximum. Forget what the schedule actually says, think of how long it actually takes; flight time, not block time. Also the seat pitch on the Q400 isn't THAT bad.
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Old 24th Apr 2014, 05:30
  #82 (permalink)  
 
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Pitch on the BEE Q400 is the same as the Aer Lingus A319 on which I was a captive recently ( 31 inches ) but I find the Q400 seat design better as my kneecaps aren't crushed.

Who supplies the seats in the Q400s? They seem much more comfortable than the Recaro planks in the EIN aircraft.

I never thought I'd say this but FlyBE have tempted me with a combination of the Q400 and the London City route.
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Old 24th Apr 2014, 05:53
  #83 (permalink)  
 
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Its more the prop perception rather than the Q400 aircraft itself.

DUB did not work for BA against WX
BHD did not work for WX
EDI was loss making for WX against BA.

With the exception of Switzerland, can any LCY route profitably sustain two carriers?

LCY seems to work for niche traffic to larger corporate banking centres in Europe, rather than secondary (Belfast, Cork) and tertiary cities like Exeter, Dundee or Ronaldsway. The traffic is corporate deal focused so FlyBe will really struggle to break into this segment.

They are also generally unknown in London and don't share the same brand awareness of BA or Easyjet for the leisure traffic from the capital.
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Old 24th Apr 2014, 08:51
  #84 (permalink)  
 
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Just an observation, but why offer the Dundee route from Stansted now they are at LCY? Dundee was long established at LCY (Scot Airways/CityJet) - surely makes sense to consolidate at two airports rather than three?
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Old 24th Apr 2014, 10:16
  #85 (permalink)  
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I don't think the time argument is particularly relevant on short sectors like EDI-LCY, as previously stated, probably all of 8 minutes difference. Seat pitch on Q400 is fine however the noise levels are significantly higher than ERJ. flybe may be able to offer cheaper fares than Cityflyer however if you are travelling at your company's expense and using a lounge you prabably are going to already have your favourite. BHD LCY has been run several times before and has been canned each time for poor performance (flybe approx 2004, euromanx approx (via IOM?) 2008, and Cityjet/Suckling approx 2009).

What may sway it is whether flybe have bagged some big corporate contracts. In any case, I would expect Cityflyer will be working to ensure flybe don't get too good a foothold in their key market.

sr
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Old 24th Apr 2014, 10:45
  #86 (permalink)  
 
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FlyBe on LCYEDI makes me think that they really don't understand the power of the BA Exec Club. These Gold and Silver card holders won't move for price even if FlyBe can offer cheaper fares. As for EXTLCY ??????
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Old 24th Apr 2014, 12:35
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As a long term observer ( and I stress that) and user of the airline industry I am surprised by this move by Flybe. It seems unlikely to me to really work out.

What is the risk to the airline if it doesn't- could they just walk away after a year and carry on or is survival as they are not an option forcing them to do SOMETHING i.e is making there existing operation at BHX, MAN and SOU as efficient as possible not enough to turn the airline round per se).

I live in North Bucks and have never used LCY so may be I don't understand
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Old 24th Apr 2014, 12:43
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FlyBe have signed a 5 year deal with LCY though what that means in practice who knows?
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Old 24th Apr 2014, 13:47
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FlyBe on LCYEDI makes me think that they really don't understand the power of the BA Exec Club. These Gold and Silver card holders won't move for price even if FlyBe can offer cheaper fares. As for EXTLCY ??????
Think you need to see what BA do.

Remember IAG own 15% of Flybe and may be more than supportive of this by reducing frequency. I doubt IAG were unaware of this occuring.
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Old 24th Apr 2014, 15:03
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I'd like to see what BALPA would make of BA reducing frequency to accommodate FlyBe.
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Old 24th Apr 2014, 15:26
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Think you need to see what BA do.

Remember IAG own 15% of Flybe and may be more than supportive of this by reducing frequency. I doubt IAG were unaware of this occuring.
After some recent equity moves thought the value of the BA (IAG) holdings were reduced to about 12.5%
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Old 24th Apr 2014, 15:28
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I think some people overstate the importance or relevance of BA's share in Flybe. It is small minority stake with no board representation. It was acquired as "payment" for BA Connect. It's not like BA went out and bought shares because they had an interest in working with BE.

I doubt very much whether BA and BE work closely on anything and I'd be hugely surprises if BA were to do a deal and reduce capacity to allow BE to move in on what is supposedly BACF most important route.

I could of course be completely wrong... Aviation is a funny business and odd little deals have been done in the past so who knows.
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Old 24th Apr 2014, 17:53
  #93 (permalink)  
 
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are BACF actually making money from LCY? I wouldn't be surprised if FlyBE is getting positioned here as the lower cost producer on these routes on behalf of BA.
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Old 24th Apr 2014, 18:09
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BACF are about to receive three more brand new E190s. Surely an indication they're confident of their operation at LCY, and not about to hand it on a plate to Flybe.
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Old 24th Apr 2014, 18:34
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I think some people overstate the importance or relevance of BA's share in Flybe.
I could not agree more. Remember, BA have no representation on the Flybe board and have publicly stated that they had written down the value of their stake and would offload this if possible in the past.

I accept that you can never say never about the potential for a commercial deal, but I would put money on the fact that BA have absolutely no influence on any of the decisions taken by Flybe.....they are a very minority shareholder whose stake was heavily diluted by the recent share offer to well below the 15% they had originally.

Last edited by JobsaGoodun; 24th Apr 2014 at 18:50.
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Old 24th Apr 2014, 18:35
  #96 (permalink)  
 
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I would be very surprised as it's not BA that operate from LCY but BA CityFlyer with a much cheaper cost base. I doubt BA and BE are working at all together here! LCY has the highest proportion of Gold and Silver Exec club holders of any destination, the quickest way to hack them off would be to palm off the rather impressive product to flymaybe.

This is a new management direction at flybe being buffeted by events rather than controlling them. They had no choice but to leave their long established market at LGW as they needed the cash injection but having done so they are missing the London market. Where to go? Not LGW/LHR so one from SEN/STN/LTN/LCY, they chose LCY. Against an aggressive and dominant BA.

Last edited by Skipness One Echo; 24th Apr 2014 at 20:16.
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Old 24th Apr 2014, 19:08
  #97 (permalink)  
 
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As a reasonably frequent passenger on Belfast - London services, I was saddened when BE pulled out of LGW. The 195s are a pleasure, and the loss of BE took away some choice from the route. I hoped that BE would return (somewhere) in London, but initially LCY didn't look too enticing. However, I checked travel times from LCY to Westminster...and it's a mere 25 minutes. Compare that to LGW / LHR / STN and it begins to look very attractive. And the Q400 isn't a bad machine by any means...4 abreast always makes it feel more spacious (even if it isn't) than the 6 abreast competition. So all-in-all, this might be a smart move. Will definitely give them a try.
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Old 24th Apr 2014, 19:39
  #98 (permalink)  
 
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Oh Skipness for crying out loud drop the flymaybe b******ks. It really is rather pathetic.
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Old 24th Apr 2014, 19:43
  #99 (permalink)  
 
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I could of course be completely wrong... Aviation is a funny business and odd little deals have been done in the past so who knows.
That is my take on it, just because it appears not to be a rational decision doesn't mean it won't happen.
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Old 24th Apr 2014, 20:00
  #100 (permalink)  
 
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This is not a BACF / Flybe / BA carve-up, of that I am sure. It smacks of desperation with Flybe which has five spare Q400s this winter (and perhaps many more!) and needs to do something to avoid contracting too far, particularly as some of the spare aircraft will be accompanied by a loss in turnover from contract flying for Brussels Airlines. Although much lower yield, I stick by my views that they'd have been far better off on GLA/EDI/BHD-SEN than this crazy mission in LCY.

And if they have a commercial deal at LCY, you can also be sure that BACF will be meeting with LCY management very soon to ensure that their deal is better than Flybe's, given that they are a much larger operator there.
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