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Old 9th Apr 2014, 16:51
  #1181 (permalink)  
 
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Some fares on new routes

Just done a quick random check on prices on two of the new routes in July and August. To Antwerp and Caen basic fare not bad at 60-70 pounds return but all-in fare which includes VIP lounge (is there one at Caen or Antwerp) wait for it 700 pounds YES 700 pounds. Has somebody gone mad!
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Old 10th Apr 2014, 13:37
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CGN cancelled

SEN-CGN ist no longer bookable since yesterday, appears they had early warning of the new FR base at CGN with its double-daily CGN-STN.
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Old 10th Apr 2014, 17:59
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Cologne has also been removed from the destinations page on the SEN website.

A real shame. I was looking out for the December flights as my family and I had already decided that we were going to be going out for the Christmas markets. We won't be flying Ryanair and Germanwings is generally much pricier so I doubt we'll be going now.

Most of the other routes are targeting the inbound market, although I may take the opportunity of a weekend in Antwerp when the route starts in July.

The current schedule is obviously pretty tightly planned so I wonder whether there's any scope for a different route to be substituted for the summer or whether they'll try and rejig things (as may happen anyway given seasonal variation in demand) for the winter.

Either way, with the reduction in easyJet routes and no new destinations planned for the winter, I find it difficult to see how they reach 2-2.5 million passengers per annum over the next year / 18 months. Interesting times nevertheless.
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Old 10th Apr 2014, 20:00
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Can't see Germanwings being too impressed at the FR competition. Perhaps SEN may tempt them?! That would contribute to meeting the 2 million
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Old 10th Apr 2014, 20:47
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Maybe a 2x daily EDIN to take its place would be nice
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Old 10th Apr 2014, 20:49
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Maybe a 2x daily EDIN to take its place would be nice
It would be but given that Cologne was only planned to be once daily and both ATRs appear to be otherwise fully occupied, I don't see how it would fit into the current schedule.
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Old 10th Apr 2014, 21:38
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Wonder if they have an alternative up the sleeve... Cannot think of too many destinations at the same distance? Maybe LGG oder MST? Or SCN that OLT gave a try?

I guess the folks at Stobart Air must be fuming given that CGN allowed them to release the new route, assuming that the Ryanair development did not occur in the last week....
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Old 10th Apr 2014, 23:37
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It will be interesting to see what destination will replace CGN.

I wonder if BE's NQY service could be destined to operated under the Stobart Air franchise agreement. The 3 x weekly service would fit perfectly If BE moved there Thursday Caen flight to a Wednesday.
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Old 11th Apr 2014, 06:39
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Not sure - what would BE do with the Q400 sitting at NQY then? I suppose they are more interested in the utilization of their own aircraft than presenting a franchisee a route on a silver plate.

As to Germanwings moving to SEN - that would be nice, but I don't think it will happen. While the CGN route carries a lot of Ford employees for which SEN would be a slightly better gateway, my impression is that the route also carries a lot of passengers headed to the north of STN and not only to London proper (e.g. students). Plus 4U also serves HAJ and STR from STN and as I doubt that they would be interested in stretching their presence over three LON airports, they owuld need to move those flights to SEN as well.
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Old 11th Apr 2014, 11:21
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Apparently there will be a replacement destination which is good news. Maybe somewhere like Maastricht/Paderborn/Liege/Saarbrucken/Dijon/Waterford? I imagine there are plenty more...
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Old 11th Apr 2014, 13:44
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I wonder if BE's NQY service could be destined to operated under the Stobart Air franchise agreement. The 3 x weekly service would fit perfectly If BE moved there Thursday Caen flight to a Wednesday.
You're just not getting it, SEN is far from ideally placed for west or south-west UK mainland services and Stobart Air clearly agree because not one of their route announcements was to/from the west or south-west UK mainland.
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Old 11th Apr 2014, 23:14
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Smart for Stobart Air to axe the route rather than pursue it at a loss. I have flash backs of FR stepping up the pressure on DUB ORK in a clear attempt to put RE out of business. I think we will see FR responding ex STN where possible to RE routes .

FR have responded heavily to a resurgent RE/EIR, STN is an example where DUBroute has been increased in frequency , BHX DUB etc.

RE will need to find gaps and niches that are thin routes, hence of little interest to FR.
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Old 12th Apr 2014, 04:02
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..or airports with short runways that Ryanair can not operate from.
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Old 12th Apr 2014, 07:11
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What about Jersey, now that EZY are stopping it ? ATR is a better size than an A319 for this route.
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Old 12th Apr 2014, 07:20
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Regarding Jersey - there is a reply (from the airport) to a query on the Southend Airport Facebook page stating that this route will revert to a seasonal Summer schedule in 2015.
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Old 12th Apr 2014, 08:15
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Apparently there will be a replacement destination which is good news. Maybe somewhere like Maastricht/Paderborn/Liege/Saarbrucken/Dijon/Waterford? I imagine there are plenty more...
Just enter 284mi@SEN (distance CGN-SEN) into the Great Circle Mapper and it will give you an idea what destinations could replace CGN without messing up the whole schedule. Dijon and - to a lesser extent - Waterford would be too far away. MST/LGG/SCN are pretty much the same distance. PAD could work as well, but I doubt it makes sense given the FR/U2 presence at nearby DTM and the existing SEN-route from FMO. FMO and DTM are more or less just down the road from PAD.

A wide shot would be KSF (Kassel), the new regional airport that opened last yearhalfway between FRA and HAJ. They are desperate to attract airline customers because of growing political pressure of the waste of taxpayers money. Apparently there are advanced negotiations with Turkish Airlines for an IST link. I doubt there is sufficient demand, but given the desperation there I could imagine that the airport would cough up some money to attract a high-profile destiation.

Another option, altough a bit far away compared to CGN, might be ERF (Erfurt) from where Germania has begun a twice (?) weekly LGW route which appears to be reasonably patronized. Germania is offering 300 seats on the route per week, so a 6x weekly ATR72 service would not be much more capacity but offer more flexibility - should Germania decide to pull out.

However, my best guess would be LGG or MST. A couple of years ago, Aer Arann was close to establishung its first continental base at LGG. Some of you will remember. The relative proximity of Liege to the Eurostar terminus at Brussels, however, might make a SEN route less convincing. MST is a different story, it lacks the same alternatives and used to support a STN route for many years, operated by BASE Airlines under a BA franchise. MST's catchment area also includes parts of Germany, the airport is actually called Maastricht/Aachen.
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Old 12th Apr 2014, 09:56
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i was told the Lufthansa plane just arrived at SEN this morning for service can you confirmation it.... if it is then it is unusually for them to join in for service ...
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Old 12th Apr 2014, 10:09
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While Stobart flights seem to be about passengers originating in cities other than London, it's perhaps worth noting that Liege and the surrounding area struggles to attract tourists - Maastricht and nearby Aachen have rather more for leisure-oriented passengers. Perhaps not absolutely critical, but a bi-directional flow of passengers always helps improve profitability.

It's relatively easy to connect to Eurostar from Liege by train but a complete pain from Maastricht. Aachen to Cologne airport by train is a minimum of 1h15

Last edited by davidjohnson6; 12th Apr 2014 at 12:02. Reason: Correct Aachen-CGN travel time
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Old 12th Apr 2014, 10:36
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As someone that's lived and worked in all three of the BENELUX countries Maastricht is pretty much a dead loss and I'm reading that even KLM CityHopper have dropped it from their route network ... things must be bad!

Liege is too close to BRU and it's straight down a single motorway to/from Charleroi.

Monchengladbach had at least one LON route previously and the time I utilised the route to position crew (to LGG of all places on I had to book them in business class, economy was full.

But having never worked with the ATR I'm not sure how a 72 would get on with Monchengladbach's runway.
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Old 12th Apr 2014, 10:40
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Aachen to both CGN (1-stop) and DUS (nonstop) by train is 91 and 96 minutes (don't be fooled by the current situation, there are engineering works at Cologne main station at the moment). MST seems to be the most logical choice, also given that it takes 2,5h to get to Schiphol. Nevertheless, all scheduled services to "city" destinations from MST have miserably failed over the past decade - Easyjet, Ryanair and Germanwings have all tried since KLM exel disappeared. Even Ryanair's leisure destinations have not been stellar performers.
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