SOUTHEND - 3 The new beginning
LTNman
I know you always deny being anti-SEN, but your post looks more like wishful thinking to that end rather than any thought out projections.
Firstly, you could be right and easyJet might simply replace some existing routes with others over the next couple of years. On the other hand they may find that nearly all the existing routes perform satisfactorily after a period and increase the number of routes and based aircraft. Such a scenario seems equally possible surely.
Secondly, it's rather sweeping to say that "there will be no real demand from other airlines...." just because STN may be under new ownership by then. Would you say that about LTN then in those circumstances?
Lastly, on what basis do you state that "IT flights from Southend will still be very limited with no real increase on next year." ? SEN's natural catchment area is well populated by those most likely to take IT flights, so there is no reason to assume that it might not be serving half a dozen destination on that basis after a couple of years, rather than the one or two anticipted so far for 2013.
The truth surely is that no one knows how successful SEN with prove to be in the medium to long term; it probably very largely depending on if (I don't feel able to say 'when' any more in that context) the UK economy recovers to a meaningful extent by 2015. The airport's potential is still evolving and it's not expected that the extended terminal will be "maxed out" as you put it until 2 mppa is achieved and it will require considerable growth beyond 2013 before that landmark is reached.
I know you always deny being anti-SEN, but your post looks more like wishful thinking to that end rather than any thought out projections.
Firstly, you could be right and easyJet might simply replace some existing routes with others over the next couple of years. On the other hand they may find that nearly all the existing routes perform satisfactorily after a period and increase the number of routes and based aircraft. Such a scenario seems equally possible surely.
Secondly, it's rather sweeping to say that "there will be no real demand from other airlines...." just because STN may be under new ownership by then. Would you say that about LTN then in those circumstances?
Lastly, on what basis do you state that "IT flights from Southend will still be very limited with no real increase on next year." ? SEN's natural catchment area is well populated by those most likely to take IT flights, so there is no reason to assume that it might not be serving half a dozen destination on that basis after a couple of years, rather than the one or two anticipted so far for 2013.
The truth surely is that no one knows how successful SEN with prove to be in the medium to long term; it probably very largely depending on if (I don't feel able to say 'when' any more in that context) the UK economy recovers to a meaningful extent by 2015. The airport's potential is still evolving and it's not expected that the extended terminal will be "maxed out" as you put it until 2 mppa is achieved and it will require considerable growth beyond 2013 before that landmark is reached.
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Lastly, on what basis do you state that "IT flights from Southend will still be very limited with no real increase on next year." ? SEN's natural catchment area is well populated by those most likely to take IT flights
Secondly, it's rather sweeping to say that "there will be no real demand from other airlines...." just because STN may be under new ownership by then. Would you say that about LTN then in those circumstances?
By 2014 Luton will be looking for another 8 million passengers. Stansted under new owners will be looking to fill up its half empty terminal and Gatwick will be eyeing all airports north of the Thames as a souse of more passengers. Life might get tough for Southend but then as I said who knows.
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To be fair to LTNMan, this is what he said on 7th February 2011:
"From little acorns grow might oaks come to mind. Ok Southend is hemmed in a bit and the terminal will be small but an airline like easyjet could move 3 or 4 aircraft out of say Luton to set up a base at Southend which would have a big impact on Luton’s passenger figures.
Coventry has been mentioned why Southend could struggle but then look at how Belfast Harbour has taken business away from Belfast’s main airport. OK this might be a bad comparison as Harbour is a city airport but with its own railway station Southend could well provide a few surprises."
Which seems pretty percipient to me. Just to amuse everyone, here is what is being stated on another forum today:
"....rumours among The Aviation Industry,are circulating, by stating that Easy Jet, are to base 6 Airbus 319s - at London Southend Airport for Summer 2013, and will be operating New Services, and Destinations !!!! "
Pure speculation, I suspect....
"From little acorns grow might oaks come to mind. Ok Southend is hemmed in a bit and the terminal will be small but an airline like easyjet could move 3 or 4 aircraft out of say Luton to set up a base at Southend which would have a big impact on Luton’s passenger figures.
Coventry has been mentioned why Southend could struggle but then look at how Belfast Harbour has taken business away from Belfast’s main airport. OK this might be a bad comparison as Harbour is a city airport but with its own railway station Southend could well provide a few surprises."
Which seems pretty percipient to me. Just to amuse everyone, here is what is being stated on another forum today:
"....rumours among The Aviation Industry,are circulating, by stating that Easy Jet, are to base 6 Airbus 319s - at London Southend Airport for Summer 2013, and will be operating New Services, and Destinations !!!! "
Pure speculation, I suspect....
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500th employee at fastest growing airport
For anyone who is interested,
ADS Advance - Southend welcomes 500th new employee as it is named fastest growing airport in Europe
ADS Advance - Southend welcomes 500th new employee as it is named fastest growing airport in Europe
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..rumours among The Aviation Industry,are circulating, by stating that Easy Jet, are to base 6 Airbus 319s - at London Southend Airport for Summer 2013, and will be operating New Services, and Destinations !!!! "
So what is Southend’s full potential?
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ADS Advance - Southend welcomes 500th new employee as it is named fastest growing airport in Europe
Who wrote this rubbish. At least the people here understand that if you start off with next to no passengers then it does not take many new passengers to bump up the figures.
The sky really is the limit for London Southend Airport as it welcomes the 500th new member of staff on site since summer 2011, at the same time as it is highlighted as the fastest developing airport in Europe, possibly even the world
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Southend's full potential has always been stated as 2 million ppa, similar to Southampton. However, somebody from Stobart once mentioned 5 million ppa - could have been a slip. With one short, narrow runway I can't see SEN expanding much beyond 2 million ppa; but then there's always LCY with 3 million plus per year.....
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LTM MAN
since when has 84,792 passengers for the month of july not been very many?.there are a lot of well established airports that would like those passenger numbers.congratulations to all at SEN for their hard work,long may it continue
Southend had 84,792 passengers in July 2012
Bournemouth had more passengers
Doncaster had more passengers
Guernsey had more passengers
Yes, it is credit-worthy to see the new routes at SEN perform so well, but neither Bournemouth nor Doncaster would be regarded as having particularly high passenger numbers in the general scheme of things.
Bournemouth had more passengers
Doncaster had more passengers
Guernsey had more passengers
Yes, it is credit-worthy to see the new routes at SEN perform so well, but neither Bournemouth nor Doncaster would be regarded as having particularly high passenger numbers in the general scheme of things.
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Excellent news on the passenger loads. 84,792 is incredibly exciting for Southend. They haven't seen these kinds of numbers in their history, ever! There were some entire years that went by in the 90's with less than the July total.
Southend, being marketed as a London gateway and an alternative for those who despise Stansted, not to mention the immediate catchment area, should easily be able to support 200-250,000 passengers a month once the extension is available in my opinion.
The best days are still ahead for Southend.
Southend, being marketed as a London gateway and an alternative for those who despise Stansted, not to mention the immediate catchment area, should easily be able to support 200-250,000 passengers a month once the extension is available in my opinion.
The best days are still ahead for Southend.
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since when has 84,792 passengers for the month of july not been very many?
Southend, being marketed as a London gateway and an alternative for those who despise Stansted
Last edited by LTNman; 15th Aug 2012 at 07:12.
LTNman & davidjohnson6
I start to wonder what sort of figures you would want to see before you admitted that the rebuilt SEN has so far been an outstanding success.
What is the point in selectively comparing the pax figures for three well established UK airports when SEN has been operational for only 5 months?
I think it is generally accepted that SEN is unlikely to exceed 2 mppa under current plans for terminal capacity and its infrastructure. That's all it needs to do in order to become a commercial success for its current owners while maintaining its growing reputation as an easy to use, rapid transit airport.
I don't see how LTNman squares his view that STN will offer lower costs to fill their half empty terminal with his statement that LTN will be looking for an addition 8 million pax by 2014. Surely that would be a tough ask for LTN, while I don't see why it should dent SEN's modest ambition for 2 mppa by then.
Aviation has suffered more than its fair share of bad news in recent years, dealing with the impacts of recession and ever increasing APD and fuel costs etc. and many airports are seeing reductions in passenger numbers and profitability. Just for once can't we all welcome the good news that SEN represents to the industry?
I start to wonder what sort of figures you would want to see before you admitted that the rebuilt SEN has so far been an outstanding success.
What is the point in selectively comparing the pax figures for three well established UK airports when SEN has been operational for only 5 months?
I think it is generally accepted that SEN is unlikely to exceed 2 mppa under current plans for terminal capacity and its infrastructure. That's all it needs to do in order to become a commercial success for its current owners while maintaining its growing reputation as an easy to use, rapid transit airport.
I don't see how LTNman squares his view that STN will offer lower costs to fill their half empty terminal with his statement that LTN will be looking for an addition 8 million pax by 2014. Surely that would be a tough ask for LTN, while I don't see why it should dent SEN's modest ambition for 2 mppa by then.
Aviation has suffered more than its fair share of bad news in recent years, dealing with the impacts of recession and ever increasing APD and fuel costs etc. and many airports are seeing reductions in passenger numbers and profitability. Just for once can't we all welcome the good news that SEN represents to the industry?
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here here Expressflight
Well said.
I love the UK aviation industry and have a very strong interest in all the UK regional airports but like a lot of people I have my favourites and I would almost compare this forum to forums on who supports what football club - its difficult to separate the emotion if a particular airport means something to you.
I love the UK aviation industry and have a very strong interest in all the UK regional airports but like a lot of people I have my favourites and I would almost compare this forum to forums on who supports what football club - its difficult to separate the emotion if a particular airport means something to you.
When Easyjet began selling seats out of Southend they were at very low fares. Filling aircraft on beach routes in July from an airport that covers the London area when some of the aircraft capacity has simply been moved from Stansted should not be too hard particularly with the marketing power of Easyjet
I have no dislike for SEN at all and genuinely want it to succeed given the monopolistic behaviour of BAA at Stansted.
Yes 84,000 passengers per month is credit worthy with current aircraft but it sets the airport size at what I believe is still quite a modest level and means the airport is dependent on a small number of routes.
Yes, it's a lot more passengers than in the 1990s and 2000s, but with all the expenditure on new terminal, runway extension and train station, one should also expect a lot more passengers when setting any kind of performance target.
Hit 1 million bums on seats in a year (yes I know it'll require more based aircraft) and I'll regard SEN as a serious airport and genuinely be impressed.
I have no dislike for SEN at all and genuinely want it to succeed given the monopolistic behaviour of BAA at Stansted.
Yes 84,000 passengers per month is credit worthy with current aircraft but it sets the airport size at what I believe is still quite a modest level and means the airport is dependent on a small number of routes.
Yes, it's a lot more passengers than in the 1990s and 2000s, but with all the expenditure on new terminal, runway extension and train station, one should also expect a lot more passengers when setting any kind of performance target.
Hit 1 million bums on seats in a year (yes I know it'll require more based aircraft) and I'll regard SEN as a serious airport and genuinely be impressed.
Last edited by davidjohnson6; 15th Aug 2012 at 09:41.
davidjohnson6
Do you really believe that "84,000 passengers per month ....... is still quite a modest level" just five month into SEN's new life? I would suggest that few on here would have thought that even remotely likely just 18 months ago.
Stobarts have been sensible enough to realise that it would be unwise to chase too many other operators at this stage, with a limited sized terminal and only five close-in stands. You said yourself just a year ago:
"Perhaps a few months of letting some A319 and any other similar or smaller sized aircraft bed in and operate in a stable manner would be worthwhile first?"
That's exactly the policy they have followed, but once a date for the extended terminal with its additional five stands to come into use is firmed up they will obviously be working hard to add additional airlines and routes.
Do you really believe that "84,000 passengers per month ....... is still quite a modest level" just five month into SEN's new life? I would suggest that few on here would have thought that even remotely likely just 18 months ago.
Stobarts have been sensible enough to realise that it would be unwise to chase too many other operators at this stage, with a limited sized terminal and only five close-in stands. You said yourself just a year ago:
"Perhaps a few months of letting some A319 and any other similar or smaller sized aircraft bed in and operate in a stable manner would be worthwhile first?"
That's exactly the policy they have followed, but once a date for the extended terminal with its additional five stands to come into use is firmed up they will obviously be working hard to add additional airlines and routes.