SOUTHEND - 3 The new beginning

[davidjohnson6]

84,000 is for a month in peak summer. Yes it is a lot of people, but has to be seen against likely numbers in low season as well.

My point is that SEN has seen very large capital expenditure over the last few years. Any major consumer-oriented project would likely need the customers to come flooding in as soon as the product goes on sale - a comparable might be a new out of town shopping centre that opened in September and was being judged on its performance purely in the run up to Xmas.

I don't deny that 84,000 is plenty of passengers for a new-ish airport, but given the population on its doorstep, the new capacity of the airport, the new terminal, the train station, the marketing power of Easyjet, the fact that based aircraft have been moved to SEN from a major (but monopolistic) London airport, and a shockingly rainy spring/summer for a peak summer month I see this as performing well, but still not yet fully proven.

We're currently looking at SEN numbers under perfect conditions - we need to see SEN perform under some less than perfect conditions to judge its underlying strength - e.g. November. How many people flying out of SEN would have flown out of the other Essex airport anyway but for the fact that aircraft have moved to a different base ?

I think people are getting a little too excited at this stage in SEN's development. Hit (or be on target for) 1m pax per year, and I'll genuinely regard SEN as an unqualified success.

[tophat27dt]

Stobarts are very good for keeping their mouths shut when actively seeking new business. How many of us knew six months before it was announced that EasyJet were starts operations from SEN? Rumours will always happen, some with dead ends, but I believe the rumour that the same airline WILL base three or more A319s there next year provided all the facilities are open for the comfort of their passengers. Thomsons/First Choice and Stobarts have not officially confirmed their twice-weekly flights to Palma yet because contracts need to be signed, but it got leaked out via the broker dealing with the Germania aircraft used by Fords. He is actively looking for more useage and basing it at SEN. Other scheduled operators? maybe but you certainly wont hear about them until every dot is in place.

[EI-BUD]

What is the point in selectively comparing the pax figures for three well established UK airports when SEN has been operational for only 5 months?

I completely agree, the airport is just started out with a new terminal, gotten Easyjet to start a base and the 3 aircraft are fully utilised and the loads are very good. The business case was and is strong for the airport and solely looking the local catchment it is a good story. The airport and terminal in the current state has major opportunities to expand. When the 3 easyJet 319s go out in the morning there a few hours of gaps with an empty terminal. So I would say at a guess the airport could handle x4 times the passengers without extension etc.

The plan was to use the olympics as a major opportunity to get SEN on the map. the next challenge is to convince the flying public bound for London that the airport is just a credable and convenient at other London Airports.

Continued success to SEN and Easyjet (and EIR)

EI-BUD

[Nakata77]

Funny how yesterday I was saying Flybe should forget LGW and consider SEN.

They have just announced closure of their LGW base.

Daily Nantes route will transfer to SOU, but i'm sure this is opportunity to revisit SEN development

[LTNman]

I think it is generally accepted that SEN is unlikely to exceed 2 mppa under current plans for terminal capacity and its infrastructure. That's all it needs to do in order to become a commercial success for its current owners while maintaining its growing reputation as an easy to use, rapid transit airport.

So you agree with my predictions up until 2014 when I predict the airport could be maxed out if all goes well


When Luton was hovering around the 2 million mark it was seen as an unsuccessful failing airport. I would say that 2 million passengers at Southend would be viewed as a great success.

I don't see how LTNman squares his view that STN will offer lower costs to fill their half empty terminal with his statement that LTN will be looking for an addition 8 million pax by 2014. Surely that would be a tough ask for LTN, while I don't see why it should dent SEN's modest ambition for 2 mppa by then.

If easyjet keeps faith at Southend and why shouldn't it then Southend will do well but as we all know airlines close bases and shift capacity at a drop of a hat. Look what happened with easyjet at East Midlands. Look how easyjet has reduced capacity at Stansted. There are only so many passengers around and all the airports want them.

Easyjet

East Midlands Airport
Earlier today we announced our intention to stop all flying from East Midlands Airport from 6 January 2010.

This decision is a result of Commercial considerations and plans to redeploy our aircraft across our network. We will continue to operate as normal up until 5 January 2010.

.

When the 3 easyJet 319s go out in the morning there a few hours of gaps with an empty terminal. So I would say at a guess the airport could handle x4 times the passengers without extension etc.

Wouldn't say 4 times but Southend needs to attract jets that are not Southend based to fill in the gaps. Think they might find it hard to get airlines out of other London airports though but that is the way to go.

[pug]

LTNman, correct me if I'm wrong, however I was under the impression that easyjet pulled out of EMA due to only having 2xaircraft stationed there (they tend to base at least three aircraft), and increased competition from FR, WW and Jet2.

Easyjet currently have the run of SEN, it has been rumoured that they got a very good deal to operate from there, and that the contract is a long term one being 10 years..

Stobart and easyjet's ideas of success may be different from your own.

[LTNman]

Stobart and easyjet's ideas of success may be different from your own.

Success = profit for airline and airport

[pug]

Success = profit for airline and airport

Of course, so you will also know that profit/loss is not necessarily defined by the number of passengers using the airport. I expect you do not have access to that information either.

[LTNman]

Of course, so you will also know that profit/loss is not necessarily defined by the number of passengers using the airport.

Could not agree more with your wise words.

1,000,000 passengers and a nice profit = success.
2,000,000 passengers and a fat loss = failure

Problem is that there are a few plane spotters here that would disagree as numbers mean everything and nothing else counts.

[pug]

Problem is that there are a few here that would disagree as numbers mean everything and nothing else counts.

I would say that 2 million passengers at Southend would be viewed as a great success.

I need say no more.

My opinion is that the people who need to know what they are doing, will know what they are doing. Stobarts also dont appear to have gotten ahead of themselves, perhaps unlike some other airport operators in recent years who have publicly over estimated their future passenger throughputs.

[LTNman]

I would assume that 2,000,000 passengers at a maxed out Southend would return a nice profit. If it didn't then there will be trouble ahead.

[Expressflight]

LTNman

I cannot help but me amused by your criticism of those here to whom "numbers mean everything and nothing else counts". Yet all of your recent posts have been full of references to the 'numbers' and what represents good numbers and what would represent failure. I happen to agree with you that numbers don't mean anything on their own, but they are all that we generally have to go on, as pug has pointed out.

I personally feel that 2 mppa will not only represent a profitable situation for all involved (whether that is reached by 2014 or later), but that it will also ensure that SEN can continue to offer something a little different in terms of passenger experience to that available at LTN and STN. SEN will certainly be tied to a movement cap of around 55,000 mpa by its planning consent Section 106 agreement so growth beyond 2 mppa might anyway become difficult. SEN would at that stage be similar is size to SOU today and I assume you would consider that to be a successful airport.

To be honest, I getting a bit tired of all this to and fro number exchange and meaningless speculation, so until something more interesting comes up I'm giving this thread a rest.

[LTNman]

good news indeed

[vulcanised]

That's a stupid and totally wrong remark LTNman.

Expressflight is arguably the most knowledgeable contributor to this thread and has provided useful information on many occasions.

[Aero Mad]

The silencing of some truths (inconvenient and otherwise) can often be good news for those who don't wish to hear them.

[Barling Magna]

I know you were only joking, but not very funny LTNMan.

Expressflight is the most informed contributor to this thread, and to many others.

[EI-BUD]

Wouldn't say 4 times but Southend needs to attract jets that are not Southend
based to fill in the gaps. Think they might find it hard to get airlines out of
other London airports though but that is the way to go.

I think x4 comfortably and you are absolutely right that it is jets that are not SEN based that are needed. Hence my suggestion previously that Wizzair would be ideal airlines. As with LTN a wave of aircraft coming in just as the over nighting aircraft have left. And another wave in the evening before the 3 319s get back from their respective destinations.

The proof will be what easyJet do re STN and SEN, if EZY move another 319 over then it will prove that SEN is commercially working for EZY, airlines will watch this with interest. EZY @ STN will not be closed mainly because the 3 dometics are a great success and numbers strong, and no competition from Ryanair. If EZY moved STN EDI or GLA to SEN completely, FR would find it too attractive to pass up (EDI) and even BFS.

SEN now has to take the next step and sell the good news story that has been this summer, the olympics will be a good support. Looks like the domain of low cost airlines, and room for strong regional airlines who can develop thinner routes though sadly the list of possible airline options is getting smaller by the year.

[asdf1234]

Vested interests

I may be wrong but I sense that Expressflight has a vested interest in championing SEN?

Easyjet will be at SEN as long as their sweetheart deal lasts. At maximum profits of around £2.50 per seat flown the true test of SEN's worth to Easyjet is when Easyjet have to start paying for the use of the airport rather than SEN paying them.

Trying to gauge the success or otherwise of a new airport from 5 months operations, the majority of them summer months is just daft. By all means get excited at pax numbers in excess of 80k for one month but remember that Easyjet redeployed units to SEN, they didn't position new units there. As far as they are concerned they are simply serving the same Essex pax from a different location - no real increase in demand.

LTNman is right (and funny). I'm bored of SEN mouthpieces spouting off when the facts simply aren't there to make an informed judgement. I've posted elsewhere on the airport's dismal failure to attract business aviation, their laughable attempts to create a "world class" FBO facility (look at the pics - if that's world class Harrods must be laughing right now!) and their failure to open their own build hotel in time for the Olympics.

For all the spotters out there it must be terribly exciting to see 3 x based orange aircraft flying daily - to the rest of us it is business as normal until enough time passes to be able to accurately judge the success or otherwise of the airport.

[Expressflight]

asdf1234

Solely to avoid any possibility that my contributions here might be interpreted as anything other than my honest opinions, no I have commercial vested interest in SEN. I do have happy memories of many years working there though and I hope you get as much satisfaction of working in the industry as I did, assuming that you do.

[EI-BUD]

Easyjet will be at SEN as long as their sweetheart deal lasts. At maximum
profits of around £2.50 per seat flown the true test of SEN's worth to Easyjet
is when Easyjet have to start paying for the use of the airport rather than SEN
paying them.

Completely odd statement, can you explain how you know this detail? At this stage there are no indicators of success or failure of easyJet at SEN. I noted the term 'well informed facts' in your post somewhere.

I may be wrong but I sense that Expressflight has a vested interest in
championing SEN?

I sense you may be wrong too.