SOUTHEND - 3 The new beginning
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If you look at the Flybe press release today, I think you will find they have more pressing issues including dire load factors and awful financial results.
Nakata77
I think you've answered your own question regarding JER.
As far as any Flybe interest in SEN is concerned I would say it is currently non-existent. The last time I met them I was surprised at their negativity so I wouldn't expect that to have changed markedly in the interim.
I think you've answered your own question regarding JER.
As far as any Flybe interest in SEN is concerned I would say it is currently non-existent. The last time I met them I was surprised at their negativity so I wouldn't expect that to have changed markedly in the interim.
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Maybe they need to reconsider. Their current account looks poor, but they could follow that old dictum to invest during times of recession rather than the current retrenching. I'm sure schedules from SEN would offer them a good income.
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Expressflight - so the daily in Aug was temporary to meet demand or was it reduced to 4 weekly after poor demand?
Barling Manga, I agree with you. Considering BE are in the 'low cost' segment, they arn't taking full advantage of this.
BE SEN routes that could offer viable solutions to increased fleet size abound including GLA, EDI, ABZ, INV, NCL, MAN, IOM, GCI, JER, CDG, FRA, HAN, DUS. They surely would do better from SEN than messing around with LGW, slots and high landing fees.
Barling Manga, I agree with you. Considering BE are in the 'low cost' segment, they arn't taking full advantage of this.
BE SEN routes that could offer viable solutions to increased fleet size abound including GLA, EDI, ABZ, INV, NCL, MAN, IOM, GCI, JER, CDG, FRA, HAN, DUS. They surely would do better from SEN than messing around with LGW, slots and high landing fees.
Last edited by Nakata77; 14th Aug 2012 at 09:08.
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That's right Nakata77. Places in France, Germany, Belgium would be excellent destinations for their Q400s. I'm not sure whether their E175s and E195s can operate from SEN's runways (they are both groundhuggers compared to the E170 and E190), but if they can then Eastern European destinations would also prove attractive - there are certainly plenty of Poles in Southend (and delightful they are too).
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I believe the negativity comes from the fact that Southend were not prepared to offer exclusive offers to Flybe and when they started talking to easyJet this sent Flybe over the edge. I think Flybe have a right to be a little peeved seeing as they stuck with Southend albeit only weekend JER services in the doldrums. I would also be apprehensive if I was Jim French because if Southend is as successful as everyone thinks it is, easyJet will not think twice about doing those very routes mentioned with A319's and lower fares.
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SEN does seem to be successful - today's CAA stats will be interesting - but it's asking a lot for 156 seat A319s to be filled on French regional flights. The Q400 looks more SEN sized to me, for secondary point to points.
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SEN does seem to be successful
, all of these people now favour it and are recommending it. I'm sure we'll see some tweaking of routes, some new operators arriving and some probably disappearing - all of this is part of the genesis of a new or re-generated airport. Look at LCY for the first few years - a myriad of routes and operators came and went until it settled down. There is a place for all six of the London airports, between them they serve a vast and diverse population that needs to travel quickly all over the UK, Ireland, Europe and the world. The only negative comments I'm picking up at the moment are about lack of early morning/late night connections from London and the fact that the departure lounge can get crowded during the peak movement times. Both of these can be easily addressed and the latter's extension is already underway.
Last edited by Steviec9; 14th Aug 2012 at 10:00.
Nakata77
JER was daily from 27th June onwards, not just in August, having started at 4 x weekly in May. Presumably they feel traffic will tail off somewhat in September, when frequency reduces to 5 x weekly until the end of October (not 4 x weekly as you suggest). It reduces to 4 x weekly in November.
I would say the demand may not quite support a daily rotation even at peak season so next year's timetable will be interesting.
JER was daily from 27th June onwards, not just in August, having started at 4 x weekly in May. Presumably they feel traffic will tail off somewhat in September, when frequency reduces to 5 x weekly until the end of October (not 4 x weekly as you suggest). It reduces to 4 x weekly in November.
I would say the demand may not quite support a daily rotation even at peak season so next year's timetable will be interesting.
Last edited by Expressflight; 14th Aug 2012 at 10:44. Reason: clarification of flight frequencies
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They may not be quite as effective as the E170/E190 off short runways but the E195 especially is far from a ground hugger - it has very little trouble reaching FAO from SOU with a shorter runway than SEN (1732m vs 1799m) in the Summer with a full load (Just over 1000nmi). The E175 is not quite as good mainly because of its smaller wing and de-rated engines on the Flybe ones but should be good for around 800nmi (about the same as the Q400) ex. SOU so again about the same from SEN. 
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May I just say that this thread is probably the best in this section. Expressflight is always authoritative and erudite, and today Steviec9 makes some very good points.
Always a pleasure to read.
Always a pleasure to read.
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stluke, they are due today but are not on the website yet.
keep an eye here...
UK Airport Provisional Statistics | Aviation Intelligence | About the CAA
keep an eye here...
UK Airport Provisional Statistics | Aviation Intelligence | About the CAA
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Prediction.
This year Southend will be the UK’s fastest growing airport by a long way for passenger numbers as a percentage gain.
Next year the growth in percentage terms will be just a fraction of this year but will still be the UK’s fastest growing airport and in year 3 it will level off with next to no growth.
This year Southend will be the UK’s fastest growing airport by a long way for passenger numbers as a percentage gain.
Next year the growth in percentage terms will be just a fraction of this year but will still be the UK’s fastest growing airport and in year 3 it will level off with next to no growth.
Last edited by LTNman; 14th Aug 2012 at 13:27.
LTNman - when an airport has 42,000 passengers (i.e. barely registers as a commercial passenger airport), and then receives a brand new terminal just before the summer season begins in March, along with a railway station and a load of routes are opened by a large airline, it is to be expected that both this year and next, the %'age passenger number increase is bound to be extremely high. Thus your prediction for 2012 and 2013 is not particularly eye-opening.
The CAA stats for the 12 months ending June 2012 published a month ago indicate a growth in passenger numbers of approx 1,000 %.
Add in the extra passenger numbers for the Nov12-Mar13 season, and the %'age increase for 2013 will also be extremely high, simply because Jan12-Mar12 had very few passengers and Easyjet only began operations in April 2012
I am slightly surprised that in 2014 you expect next to no growth. What does "next to no growth" mean ? Below 1% ? Below 5% ? Below 10% ? Or something else ?
The CAA stats for the 12 months ending June 2012 published a month ago indicate a growth in passenger numbers of approx 1,000 %.
Add in the extra passenger numbers for the Nov12-Mar13 season, and the %'age increase for 2013 will also be extremely high, simply because Jan12-Mar12 had very few passengers and Easyjet only began operations in April 2012
I am slightly surprised that in 2014 you expect next to no growth. What does "next to no growth" mean ? Below 1% ? Below 5% ? Below 10% ? Or something else ?
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LTNman - when an airport has 42,000 passengers (i.e. barely registers as a commercial passenger airport), and then receives a brand new terminal just before the summer season begins in March, along with a railway station and a load of routes are opened by a large airline, it is to be expected that both this year and next, the %'age passenger number increase is bound to be extremely high. Thus your prediction for 2012 and 2013 is not particularly eye-opening.
The CAA stats for the 12 months ending June 2012 published a month ago indicate a growth in passenger numbers of approx 1,000 %.
Add in the extra passenger numbers for the Nov12-Mar13 season, and the %'age increase for 2013 will also be extremely high, simply because Jan12-Mar12 had very few passengers and Easyjet only began operations in April 2012
The CAA stats for the 12 months ending June 2012 published a month ago indicate a growth in passenger numbers of approx 1,000 %.
Add in the extra passenger numbers for the Nov12-Mar13 season, and the %'age increase for 2013 will also be extremely high, simply because Jan12-Mar12 had very few passengers and Easyjet only began operations in April 2012
I am slightly surprised that in 2014 you expect next to no growth. What does "next to no growth" mean ? Below 1% ? Below 5% ? Below 10% ? Or something else ?
There will be no real demand from other airlines that will be looking at a more competitive Stansted under new owners.
IT flights from Southend will still be very limited with no real increase on next year.
Last edited by LTNman; 14th Aug 2012 at 16:28.
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A quick check on the Citalia website shows that using LGW as the baseline, SEN departures are about 5% more expensive and LCY about 20% more expensive. I would think that those figures make SEN quite an attractive proposition taking everything else into account.