New Thames Airport for London

[PAXboy]

... just an acknowledgement that R3 really means R3 and R4.

Indeed, DaveReidUK, just as T4 was not T4 + T5.

[Dannyboy39]

...having said that, surely sooner rather than later there will be a tipping point of the number of people wanting to fly? If RWY3 was built, that would possibly give the airport a capacity of around 720,000 ATMs per annum and around 110m passengers, with a few more squeezed out from mixed mode ops.

The exponential forecasts of 350m in my opinion are totally ludicrous and more pie-in-the-sky than Fantasy Island. Doesn't rake into account rises in APD, fuel, the inevitable collapse of large airlines, external economics etc.

[DaveReidUK]

...having said that, surely sooner rather than later there will be a tipping point of the number of people wanting to fly? If RWY3 was built, that would possibly give the airport a capacity of around 720,000 ATMs per annum and around 110m passengers, with a few more squeezed out from mixed mode ops.

The exponential forecasts of 350m in my opinion are totally ludicrous and more pie-in-the-sky than Fantasy Island. Doesn't rake into account rises in APD, fuel, the inevitable collapse of large airlines, external economics etc.

Couldn't agree more. But then forecasting is very difficult, especially when it comes to the future.

Assuming, for the sake of argument, that the Conservatives get in at the next election with an overall majority and a commitment to build R3, it's still unlikely to become operational much before the end of the decade.

By that time we will have 10 years' worth of accumulated unsatisfied demand for slots (don't believe the doomsayers who tell us that traffic will be irretrievably lost to FRA, AMS and CDG). That's going to make an immediate, huge dent in those additional 240,000 ATMs.

R4 will follow R3 on the agenda as surely as night follows day.

[silverstrata]

Paxboy

Just how are the loaders going to be offerred a relocation package?
Just how will they finance a move to a new address without a relocation package?

Since this is a government proposal, especially if they step in to legally close LHR, the government will have to chip in.

However:
You will note that property prices are cheaper in the east of London.
Why the hell should a loader demand and get a relocation package, when I as a captain have never had a reloation package in more than 17 moves?

So we come back to the new heros of Europe being those who weep and wail and throw a tantrum, but would never dream of helping themselves. The new heroic god of Europe is no longer the mighty Hercules, but the simpering Priapus (who was known as Bigus Dickus to his friends).



T'was the basis of the 'Life of Brian' joke:

You Tube

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[PAXboy]

You will note that property prices are cheaper in the east of London.

Yes indeed they are - Today. If an island were to be buiilt in the next 25 years, the prices would change.

I am not in air transport but have moved for work on more than one occaision and changed country too. But did not have children and was already used to moving. I am currently at the 24th address of my life.

Since this is a government proposal, especially if they step in to legally close LHR, the government will have to chip in.

But the govt intend it to be built with private money becuse the UK govt has no money - just like the USA govt.

The whole ethos of the Conservatives is small govt (rather like your Tea Party) and the conviction that the market can sort it all out. So, that's alright then.

[silverstrata]

Pax:


But the govt intend it to be built with private money becuse the UK govt has no money - just like the USA govt.

They have plenty of money. The UK government has has already created about £300 billion, and the USA more than $1 trillion. And the US has just announced it is creating another $40 billion each month.

The problem is that politicians keep giving this money to the banksters, instead of to industry and to worthwhile reconstruction projects. The Silver-Boris airport could be funded in five minutes, if Lord King signed another bit of paper creating another £50 billion.




Edit: Banisters??? Damn spell checker.....

Skip

Also, QE has massive economic consequences for savers.

QE has enormous consequences for everyone, but so too does sitting and playing your filled while Rome burns. The only upside of QE is that (eventually) it effects everyone equally. Its not just savers who get their fingers burned with QE (when it is applied properly).


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[jabird]

Your responses show you have never lived in the US

OK, I made a wrong assumption about you, I stand corrected. Apologies.

However Silver, I'm afraid you are wrong about the above, I have lived for around a year in the USA.

how the BBC is still so left wing and winging when it's been run by Tories for all but three of the last 26 years?

I'm not sure that the politics of the person at the top always equates with those further down. I think the BBC as a whole is to the left of centre, but it clearly has key presenters who are further left than this, just as it also has those on the right. If people weren't accusing it of bias (remember the SNP say it is London-centric too), it just wouldn't be Auntie Beeb.

And Fox is fair and balanced?

R4 will follow R3 on the agenda as surely as night follows day.

I'm not so sure. R3 can take most of the short traffic, no more than 0.5 NQPs per movement, a 4th runway like this might start to place constraints on where the heavies would go. Where would you put T8&T9 by then?

I'd rather go on the basis that demand for air travel is as likely to level off as it is to keep growing. LHR is always going to take the premium connecting traffic, with R3 it will take some of the more ptp stuff from LGW, over time, maybe some of that reverts back, who knows.

Certainly far from a done deal.

[Skipness One Echo]

Again, details. You got my numbers yet?
Lord King, the late Lord King, Chairman of BA passed away some time ago.
Mervyn King is not a lord.
Also, QE has massive economic consequences for savers.

Details.....

[PAXboy]

It is true that the UK govt could print the money to fund this - but they won't. They are having enough difficulty getting approval for HS2, for which they seem perfectly happy to print the money. I do not forsee HS2 in the immediate future and the Island, not for some considerable time ...

[silverstrata]

Jabird

OK, I made a wrong assumption about you, I stand corrected.

And so you should. My/our various accommodations included:

Hour building: caravan, shared house, room, hangar.
Licences: seaman's mission, christian mission, attic, attic, caravan, attic.
CPL: condemned sqat, attic, caravan, attic, shared house, house.

And even that house we squatted in for 6 months. The purchase was taking so long, we broke into the property and lived there while the sale was going through. (And the 17 addresses are CPL and beyond.)

Think its fun to be a pilot?? ****tiest job in the world, especially after O'Leary came along.



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[PAXboy]

For those new-ish to the topic, there is a page with graphics for the the three existing London ports in The Independent: 15 Sep Airports Graphic

if the link doesn't work, start at the article here: How to make a runway out of a molehill - Home News - UK - The Independent

[DaveReidUK]

For those new-ish to the topic, there is a page with graphics for the the three existing London ports in The Independent

I don't know about Stansted or Gatwick, but the Heathrow diagram referred to is a very old one, predating the plan for T6 and with just a narrow taxiway "corridor" between the existing airfield and R3.

Here's a more representative one:

[PAXboy]

Thanks DRUK, I thought it looked odd and have sent a correction email to the newspaper with the updated graphic you cite, as seen in the BBC.

[silverstrata]

Dave:

I don't know about Stansted or Gatwick, but the Heathrow diagram referred to is a very old one, predating the plan for T6 and with just a narrow taxiway "corridor" between the existing airfield and R3.

I hope someone is thinking about a better way of getting between this ever-increasing number of 'stick-on' terminals.

The last time I tried to get from T1 to T4, we went down a long corridor to get an airside bus, but when we got there the last bus had gone. Retracing our steps, some kind soul had realized the last bus had gone, and locked all the doors. We were now well and truly stuck. After 20 minutes of screaming, shouting and banging, with no response, I found an internal 'phone and dialed random numbers until someone answered and gave me a number for security. The only saving grace was that our aircraft could not easily find our bags, and were still in the middle of a baggage search when we finally arrived.

Welcome to a real 21st century airport ......... :-(



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[jabird]

Think its fun to be a pilot?? ****tiest job in the world, especially after O'Leary came along.

I thought you'd quite like O'Leary - move aircraft base airport at a moment's notice, zero tolerance of slackers, unions, or even "idiot" passengers.

Or do you despise a man who only needs to use low cost "base" airports, having no time for the traditional hub and spoke + close down the rival model Fantasy Island needs to make it work?

So is Jim French your aviation hero?

T'was the basis of the 'Life of Brian' joke:

How did I miss you bringing Biggus Dickus into a PPRUNE thread the other day? Surely FBI is the biggest dickus waving contest of them all?

I think the argument clinic would have been a better Cleese sketch, we could have all been cleaning up on the £5s!

[Fairdealfrank]

Lots of diversions and entertainment from the protaganists of Silver Fantasy Island but, regretably, no substance.

Three basic questions remain unanswered:

(1) Silver Fantasy Island and associated infrastructure is not a good business proposition, so who pays and how do they get a return on their investment?

(2) If it is ever built, how are the airlines, passengers and associated industries persuaded to leave Heathrow and move to Silver Fantasy Island?

(3) Silver reckons that just digging up the runways is the way to close Heathrow (if it was that simple, Sipson would have been dug up by now). Apparently all those who favour Silver Fantasy Island assume that "Heathrow will close". In reality, how would this be made to happen?

Any chance of these being answered, properly? Thought not.

[DaveReidUK]

Apparently all those who favour Silver Fantasy Island assume that "Heathrow will close". In reality, how would this be made to happen?

That question might be better asked the other way round:

"Under what circumstances would UK Plc allow Spanish-owned BAA/Ferrovial to hold it to ransom having decided [for the sake of argument] that a Thames Estuary airport was the future?".

Clearly, whatever happens, it's going to be a great time to be a lawyer ...

[silverstrata]

Dave:

Clearly, whatever happens, it's going to be a great time to be a lawyer ...

Unfortunately, they are the only ones who always win.


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[Fairdealfrank]

Quote: "That question might be better asked the other way round:

"Under what circumstances would UK Plc allow Spanish-owned BAA/Ferrovial to hold it to ransom having decided [for the sake of argument] that a Thames Estuary airport was the future?".

Clearly, whatever happens, it's going to be a great time to be a lawyer ..."

Too late!

For those who are not aware, the UK aviation industry, including airlines and airports, is private and deregulated. Like much in the UK, the market decides, except in the case of airport expansion, the government cannot cannot resist interfering. The market wants Heathrow expansion, it is a good business case, the governemnt blocks it.

Without commenting on the pros and cons of a private and deregulated aviation industry, the result is that "UK PLC" can do nothing, it is no longer its business.

This is why the private sector would need to be persuaded to build Fantasy Island, and the airlines would need to be persuaded to move there, and then there's the question of the pax...

For the government to be able to direct any of this to happen, at least part of the aviation industry would need to be returned to the public sector costing taxpayers billions. The chance of this happening is nil.

So, please, let the questions remain as originally posed. Then dear old Silver can continue to fail to answer them, as usual.

[silverstrata]

Jabird:


I thought you'd quite like O'Leary - move aircraft base airport at a moment's notice, zero tolerance of slackers, unions, or even "idiot" passengers.

While I once promoted a Ryanair style airline, long before O'Leary came along, he has taken it far to far - sailing so close to the wind and so close to every law (or outside every law) he is literally courting disaster.

Ryanair is 'courting disaster' by flying planes with near-empty fuel tanks to cut costs | Mail Online

He is to be congratulated for being efficient, he is to be condemned for being cavalier.



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