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Old 14th Nov 2015, 06:02
  #4121 (permalink)  
 
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I hear Menzies met with FR head of engineering yesterday, can anything be read into that meeting? I believe the decision has been made and it's city.
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Old 14th Nov 2015, 06:29
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'harp tailed halfwits'

Husky One,

No need for such commentary which just sounds daft. Call Ryanair what you wish, but stupid they are not. Love them or hate them, they are amazingly successful...
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Old 14th Nov 2015, 07:02
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Didn't say they weren't. The term perhaps more accurately describes those who dabble with the organization. Yes a few thousand people will get a ticket for £1 and in the aftermath airports, handling agents, wannabe crew get burned and when they're done they'll bugger off again into the sunset claiming it was somebody else's fault. Genius.
Previous post edited lest I offend the radical O'Leary fans.

Last edited by Husky One; 14th Nov 2015 at 07:55.
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Old 14th Nov 2015, 09:34
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What use would Ryanair be at city? They've been there before, promised much and delivered little (although same could be said of EI in Belfast I suppose!).
I'd be happy to see FR in belfast but only if there was half a chance of them bringing some new and interesting routes -for which they would need to be at BFS.
Not to operate one domestic route from city.....
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Old 14th Nov 2015, 09:53
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I think there will be two domestics, both London initially, and plans for other destination from winter 16. At the minute they are mainly talking the traditional sun routes which AL currently serve but the hope is to encourage them to do other unserved routes.
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Old 14th Nov 2015, 12:06
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Originally Posted by shoe shine
I hear Menzies met with FR head of engineering yesterday, can anything be read into that meeting? I believe the decision has been made and it's city.
I wouldn't read anything into that. It means nothing.
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Old 14th Nov 2015, 13:24
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airport66

In fact they also have been talking to SR Technics on a few occasions recently at Bfs,so as was said above really wouldn,t look into that info to much.
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Old 14th Nov 2015, 13:32
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So RYR left the City because the runway wasn't big enough and their 737's often couldn't carry a full load on domestic routes. What has changed to suddenly make LGW rotations viable?
Domestic flights were not an issue. They possibly were initially but eventually flights were uncapped and departed/arrived regularly with 189Y. MOL wanted to expand with European routes but couldn't do so unless the runway was extended, hence RYR left.
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Old 14th Nov 2015, 18:58
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Have to say, that whilst I am no great fan of Ryanair, I do believe that Ezy are almost holding Bfs and in turn the paying passenger to ransom. It looks to me that they carefully control capacity and while I accept that they need to make a profit, I do think it is going to far now. Take a Saturday in winter, the last flight back from London is at 18.05 pm from Luton. I do not believe that a later flight would not work and be profitable from any London airport. Next summer, the first flight on a Sunday to Lgw is at 16.20 pm , a major airport for connections and of no use to N Ireland residents due to this useless schedule. On a Saturday next summer the last flight back from London is at 14.50 pm. During the week next summer, the first flight to Lgw is at 6.15 am, the next is at 16.20 pm, a gap of 10 hours.

Seems to me that Ezy need some serious competition to make them sit up and take notice. Maybe some serious competition in the form of Fr or Norwegian might make them put in some decent schedules and stop this practice of almost dropping the likes of Birmingham during the summer so that the aircraft can do sun routes instead. Clearly it benefits Ezy, but not the local airport(Bfs) or the paying passenger.

TB
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Old 14th Nov 2015, 22:50
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Definitely TrueBlue. I do like EZY but I agree, far too dominant. It would do BFS and as you say local economy well to see another operator there or the expansion of maybe LS. You mention BHX, its a great service pricing wise and useless timing wise, and in summer no Sat flights. I also notice BE scaling quietly back to 6x daily next summer, although other routes have increased. Hate FR passionately but it may just stir things up......
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Old 14th Nov 2015, 23:02
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Bye bye flybe and BHD

If Ryanair are coming to BFS and it is starting to look very likely, this will be Armageddon for Flybe and BHD. With the 2 strongest airlines in Europe operating from Aldegrove, Flybe are almost certainly be the 1st casualty, at least by default we may end up with one strong airport at Aldegrove and City returns to being development land from the Harbour Commissioners. Long term great for NI
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Old 14th Nov 2015, 23:10
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If Ryanair are coming to BFS and it is starting to look very likely, this will be Armageddon for Flybe and BHD. With the 2 strongest airlines in Europe operating from Aldegrove, Flybe are almost certainly be the 1st casualty, at least by default we may end up with one strong airport at Aldegrove and City returns to being development land from the Harbour Commissioners. Long term great for NI
Easyjet won't do well either, look at Rome, FR came in and they are more less pulling out of the airport. Flybe were perfectly fine last time FR were at City.....

I think BHD will be chosen for the UK routes.
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Old 15th Nov 2015, 00:10
  #4133 (permalink)  
 
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Jet2

ALC, FUE and LPA now on sale for winter 16/17
ALC available to hid Nov 16 then from mid FEB

Oops LPA already on sale
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Old 15th Nov 2015, 08:36
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BFS watcher,

Flybe are catering for a very specific segment of the market, city to city. They are not aiming for mass market at lowest price. A return of Ryanair to the Belfast market would have have the least impact to Flybe of any carrier..

Let's not forget on Ryanair's last entry, they operated STN, EMA, LPL, BRS and PIK. At that time without any increase in frequency BE grew numbers on LGW route. EasyJet held its own on its routes, though STN and LPL took a hit of about 5k pax each per month. Obviously, all involved suffered on yield. PIK was a disaster, some flights coming in and out with as few as 20 pax!!! Ryanair had widespread £1 all in fares each way, it was a bonanza for the public. So Belfast has established players, easyJet is well established, I think it would hold its own if Ryanair came back....
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Old 15th Nov 2015, 09:14
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Once again and several years on we find ourselves in the 'careful what you wish for scenario'. Adding a new carrier into the mix provides only a temporary advantage to passengers in the form of cheap fares. Ultimately whoever emerges as winner gets to play monopoly and can charge what they like and schedule what they like. Flybe have been around for decades and have brought a lot to the NI economy. These days they are also reasonably competitive so I'd be wary of plotting their demise and disappointed to see it given the alternatives on offer.
The reason easyJet dumped FCO has nothing to do with Ryanair. The fire at FCO was the end on of a tenuous relationship with FCO where OTP was awful and yield wasn't much better. Their model is based on return on capital and they don't hang around when that is put under strain as they have plenty of other options. Great for shareholders but not for passengers or staff (take note BFS)
The BFS to London schedules next summer are similar to last year and previous year's although there may be odd additions in the wake of EI's departure. They are all based on maximization of yield and take no account of connecting passengers as easyjet have no interline agreements. The schedule gap during the day reflects the unavailability of aircraft at those times because they are all across Europe taking the leisure brigade on their holidays. Those flights are the money makers in summer. That's not going to change much as there are no airframes to do it. The schedule in summer always reflects the importance of the international timetable.
Nothing has changed at BHD to suggest Ryanair would stay longer than before. They can't do international routes with the -800. The runway isn't getting bigger anytime soon. I'd be surprised if BHD had made a penny out of the last deal. Those circumstances are unlikely to change either.
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Old 15th Nov 2015, 13:01
  #4136 (permalink)  
 
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Husky One,

You make some very valid points in your last post. The comment re 'monopoly' is especially true. Though FR will want to be in the market, all markets and consolidation had been a factor of our time, this was written in the stars when the deregulation of the market came about. But of course that's worthy of much debate.

I wholeheartedly disagree with comments that easyJet's curtailment at fco is not due to FR and is more to do with the fire, otp etc. 'and yield was no better '... The reason yield was no better was due to intense competition in the market, namely from FR and VY.

OTP is important clearly, and if yield is their ezy will work with the airport to remedy otp...

EasyJet tend to be very commercial, ie they don't engage in protracted battles with rivals who have cost advantage and deep pockets.... Many examples, Madrid, Rome.. They wouldn't spend time in these markets where they can't win, and they can deploy aircraft more profitably elsewhere..

Ex STN they are now faced with intense rivalry on STN domestics. It isn't showing any sign of letting up. Whereas the 2 compete on lots of routes like LPL ALC, the 2 exist comfortably in the interest of high yield, sun routes...
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Old 15th Nov 2015, 13:48
  #4137 (permalink)  
 
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Husky One

I agree with and accept everything you say, except Fco as I do not have enough knowledge on that issue to comment. My comments are more about the differing needs of Ezy and the pax they serve. It may well suit Ezy to have their aircraft deployed in the manner you say, but the paying pax have a slightly different need. At the moment, I can't get a flight to Lgw on a Saturday next summer from Belfast to allow me to connect to a flight that departs Lgw mid-afternoon. And then the local airports and no doubt the airlines, wonder why so many travel out of Dublin. It will be 8 pax that will be lost to a local airport that I would prefer to support.

TB
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Old 15th Nov 2015, 13:53
  #4138 (permalink)  
 
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If Ryanair had been making money down at Bhd last time, why would they ever have left?

TB
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Old 15th Nov 2015, 13:55
  #4139 (permalink)  
 
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If Ryanair had been making money down at Bhd last time, why would they ever have left?
Yes, if not for losses but somebody's ego and if you make such a public threat if they didn't leave it would be disaster for them.

Would also suspect APD was an element as they scaled back a few domestic routes then but look at EDI/GLA-STN back operating and doing well or at least we are lead to believe.
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Old 15th Nov 2015, 20:12
  #4140 (permalink)  
 
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FR are a coming to BFS

Contact down in Dublin telling me 12 routes within 18 months from BFS with 5 based aircraft by winter 17. LGW, EMA, BHX, ALC, TFS, BRU, CGN, STN, AGP, AMS, GLA and BGY. Looks like they wil go after both Easy and Flybe Other routes being considered are SXF and various Eastern European destinations plus BCN and MAD.

Last edited by BFS watcher; 15th Nov 2015 at 20:13. Reason: Spelling
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