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Old 18th Nov 2015, 10:51
  #4161 (permalink)  
 
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Not all CAA figures out yet but looks well, LON routes especially LTN which is in huge growth, EZY's move to increase winter frequency has really paid off.

GTW + 14%

STN + 16%

LTN + 38%

Last edited by mart901; 18th Nov 2015 at 11:02. Reason: stats added
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Old 18th Nov 2015, 11:59
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Good results on the LON routes. From media report overall passengers should be up 22% in October
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Old 18th Nov 2015, 12:33
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Im sure a certain little event in October is a big part of LON growth.
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Old 18th Nov 2015, 14:58
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GAZMO Said:
From BT this morning quoting Easyjet CEO "Easyjet is to unveil yet another new route from its Belfast International hub" ..........any ideas
Irish News is reporting this:

"And although there's nothing we can confirm at the moment, there'll be new routes from Belfast to other destinations in 2016."
''But she wouldn't comment on speculation that Copenhagen and a city in Germany are on easyJet's radar right now.''
Hopefully Lanzarote will be released for S16 too soon for EZY!
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Old 18th Nov 2015, 18:10
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Jet2

Flights to PMI and FAO on sale for April 2017
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Old 18th Nov 2015, 18:26
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Belfast International being considered for a Doha Service?

Interesting article about Qatar Airways considering Belfast International for a Doha Service, but of course Dublin is also being considered...

Flights to Ireland, among options under review, could target either the capital Dublin, competing with Dubai-based Emirates and Abu Dhabi’s Etihad Airways PJSC, or Belfast in Northern Ireland, a location not yet served by any of the three leading Gulf carriers.
Qatar Air Mulls Gatwick Route as Heathrow Flight Upgraded to 787 - Bloomberg Business

I would say it will be Dublin that gets the service but at least they are thinking of starting to Belfast!

Last edited by BFS BHD; 18th Nov 2015 at 18:38.
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Old 18th Nov 2015, 18:49
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At least it would be different if they chose BFS rather than competing with the other two Middle East carriers......probably wishful thinking since they are part of the one world alliance, same as BA and EI
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Old 18th Nov 2015, 20:01
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What are the odds they'll actually choose BFS over DUB doubt we'll be seeing them here but as BFS BHD said it's good they're thinking of us, BFS management must be doing something right.
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Old 18th Nov 2015, 20:32
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These guys at Qatar, Emirates and EY consider serving the population of the island of Ireland as a total 6.4 million population market.


With volatility of Sterling you probably wouldn't get Euro traffic going North. That coupled with and threat of the UK leaving the EU would leave Qatar running the risk of relying on Northern Ireland's population of 1.8 million to justify a service in its own right. I wouldn't say it adds up. Perhaps the proposal of equalising Corporation tax with the ROI might improve prospects and I hope it does.
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Old 18th Nov 2015, 22:17
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Not sure it's possible to 'serve' all of Ireland from Dublin any more than its possible to serve all of England from London. Ok maybe not the greatest comparison but im thinking of geographical catchment rather than population. People in belfast are going to want to fly from their local airport (where possible) just as much as people living near SNN, ORK, etc, or the uk regions - and the choice of connecting options from belfast has improved a lot over the last year or two.

The gulf carriers have already demonstrated their ability to serve regional airports not just the larger hubs.
Belfast at 7m pax pa must be just about the largest UK regional market with no me3 service. Suspect one of them will serve us eventually....

Certainly nice to see some varied and interesting rumours on this thread though!

Last edited by madgav; 18th Nov 2015 at 22:41.
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Old 18th Nov 2015, 22:57
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With the 787 and A350 coming on stream, maybe we have a chance. These aircraft were supposed to open up the "longer, thinner" routes...EK seem to be the ones who can make these things work, and they are mulling over a 787-10 / A359 order...
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Old 19th Nov 2015, 10:07
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B788 is small enough to make it work I would think. Anything else is too large IMO.

I wonder how much market is left on the island for the ME carriers? The unmentionable have cut their DUB service down to 1 daily for the first half of next year, and have stopped sending the 777 up too. With the economies up here picking up the young people are coming back from Oz, and those that aren't have settled down enough where they don't come home twice a year anymore.

Still competition is good, regardless of which airport they rock up to prices will drop as a result.
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Old 19th Nov 2015, 10:57
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I think this often-stated notion of '7m Belfast passengers pa so we should have xy or z international services' overlooks some important unique characteristics of the NI market.
First, most of the services that make up the 7m are flights to GB - someone will be able to provide the actual figure but this is the bread and butter business of airports in NI.
Secondly, since NI has obvious political and cultural links to GB but is physically detached, the number is distorted because the same kind of journeys if they were in GB would be made by train or car.
Thirdly, the population of NI is tiny, about the same as Kent. It's profile (for all the wrong reasons) allows it to punch above its weight already.
Fourth, Dublin and the new improved motorway that gets you there from Belfast in less time than it takes to drive from Central London to Gatwick.

The fact that Belfast has only just been able to attract KLM Cityhopper on a modest frequency should serve as a reality check.
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Old 19th Nov 2015, 11:16
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There have been 3 return flights to Amsterdam on a M-F basis as well as Sabena flights operating at the same time both with based aircraft pre 2001.
There have been regular flights to Canada / Florida all summer long pre 2007. NI has all the top tourist attractions Giants Causeway, Titantic etc
It has been stated that most flights certainly EZY are 90% FULL that includes international flights. So although we are punching low at the moment I am quite confident that the dynamics will change soon.


The problem is Dublin is cheaper and offers more destinations and as a bonus good ground transport links.
Dublin is not far off its ceiling while Belfast is at the bottom of the ladder - plenty of room to climb.
All it will take is someone like Norwegian to come into Belfast and offer multiple transatlantic destinations, and the Dublin bubble will start to slowly deflate!!!
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Old 19th Nov 2015, 11:28
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West Brit, I fear your enthusiasm is perhaps a tad misplaced. The main problem is that Aldergrove regularly set themselves a very low standard which they consistently fail to achieve. For years they were fixated on the perceived threat from Harbour and as a result failed to recognise the real threat was actually some distance down the road! A very smooth and easily travelled road at that!

The investment now required to bring Aldergrove to have a fighting chance against Dublin, both in facilities and infrastructure, is mind boggling. Couple this with the fact that we have a group of politicians who can barely agree on what day it is and there are massive problems to be dealt with.

Dublin has become the first choice for international travel by a lot of NI people, it has invested heavily and is reaping the rewards. Meanwhile Aldergrove management bleat about how unfair everything is and how ever other airport is stealing THEIR business, cargo, passengers etc. Well guess what, people and airlines have a choice and they are choosing to use Dublin, get over it!
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Old 19th Nov 2015, 11:40
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Consolidation is the name of the game in aviation now. The "hub buster" 787 is not being used as such, it is increasing frequency between hubs, and opening new hub and spoke routes. With the small geographical and population size of this island, one airport was always going to grab the lions share of routes and pax once the road network was finally sorted, more so if a proper rail network is ever built. Dublin as the largest population center and being halfway between the 2nd and 3rd largest was always in pole position for that.

I remember when I could fly to FRA wilth Luftie or CDG with AF from SNN while Luftie sent a single heavy a day into DUB. Now those SNN routes are long gone never to return, while DUB has multiple daily A321s to FRA with Luftie and AF multiple daily too. This is echoed across the industry.
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Old 19th Nov 2015, 19:02
  #4177 (permalink)  
 
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If Qatar sent a daily A320 surely that would be viable.
According to Great Circle Mapper the distance from DOH-BFS is approx 3541 miles (yes I know it's not 100% accurate due to winds, detours etc) and the range of an A320 is around 3600 miles depending on various factors.
With 132-144 seats on their A320's surely it wouldn't be that difficult to get a good number of them seats filled without having to make a huge sacrifice for fuel?
Although in saying that some people wouldn't like to fly for ~7.5 hours on an A320 and would probably prefer to use EK or EY in a W/B aircraft from Dublin.
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Old 20th Nov 2015, 05:32
  #4178 (permalink)  
 
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@Carson. Nice idea but I think that even with a reduced load you are looking at a fuel stop on the way to NI at the very least. The great circle takes a track directly through Iraq. If I am not mistaken most flights to and from the Gulf States route east of Iraq via Iran . That alone would increase the mileage. Add on the standard IFR reserves and an intermediate stop looks increasingly likely. That would increase time enroute and have an inevitable cost penalty.

Who knows though?
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Old 20th Nov 2015, 08:03
  #4179 (permalink)  
 
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The backing for "Qatar to Belfast" is unlikely to come from Belfast International but from other agencies.

InvestNI are promoting heavily in that country ( and the UAE ) and local companies have won a few interesting contracts there. I can imagine that that agency is more likely to be effective in cajoling our politicians into providing incentives.
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Old 20th Nov 2015, 12:45
  #4180 (permalink)  
 
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BFS have no chance of getting QR

The full power of the Irish State including Tourism Ireland will make sure that those Northern upstarts will get nowhere. A private company up against a sovereign state! Good luck to the BFS management however can you see those Sormont muppets doing any thing positive to help?
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