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Old 21st Feb 2011, 16:27
  #621 (permalink)  
 
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I think this is to do with Ryanair~German relations at the moment. They're making their point. I'm sure Ryanair will make an attempt again with Germany in the future. They always return like the prodical son!
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Old 21st Feb 2011, 21:38
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Why all the concern for Wizz Air? They aren't pushovers and are no strangers to competing with FR. Doubt they will be happy with the announcement, but I doubt they are fearing for their future in Vilnius
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Old 22nd Feb 2011, 08:58
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I doubt they are fearing for their future in Vilnius
But you forget the VNO curse ;-)
STN flight times now out, bookable. Well chosen. STN-VNO 16:50-21:25, VNO-STN 21:50-22:30, daily, starting 1st May. STN-based plane then.
If anybody at FR is reading this: Note the name of the city is 'Vilnius'. During the booking process, FR's website says 'Vilniaus' with the extra 'a', but this means 'of Vilnius' or 'from Vilnius'. So saying 'Stansted-Vilniaus' is somehow like saying 'Dublin-Mancunian'. See what I mean.
 
Old 22nd Feb 2011, 09:23
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TFS on the booking engine from Derry now... schedule still to appear though.
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Old 22nd Feb 2011, 12:16
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What has happened to TFS - LDY was on the booking system this morning now it is gone, can anyone explain
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Old 22nd Feb 2011, 12:46
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Finland

There are chances to get first ever private low-cost terminal in the territory of Finland. So far Finavia Civil Aviation Administration did its best to delay any development in the field of low-cost flying, now it has to do something with the issue as it even harder to continue with its constant excuses. In a few month an investor in Lappeenranta might succeed in refurbishing an old hangar as a basic low-cost terminal aimed at travellers from St. Petersburg, Russia.

... very basic indeed.

The postulated adaptation of the existing terminal in LPP is pointless as Finavia-monopoly, its owner, has been completely unwilling to accomplish anything new anywhere in lo-co area and generally excludes any possibility of price differentiation for its services at Finnish airports.
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Old 22nd Feb 2011, 14:16
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nice greenhouse, where do they grow the tomatoes
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Old 24th Feb 2011, 11:25
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Lappeenranta? No way.

The Finnish state monopoly hardliners say Finavia could abandon the airport if Ryanair terminal is built. Just published English-language news says:
Finnish Civil Aviation Authority Finavia is considering withdrawing from Lappeenranta airport if Ryanair carries out its plan to set up a private low-cost terminal there. The current number of passengers is not enough to justify two terminals, according to Finavia's head of airport operations Reijo Tasanen.
It’s currently laid down in law that Finavia maintains Finland’s airport infrastructure. Finavia says that its network of 25 airports all over Finland allows them to service planes at airports that would not otherwise be economically viable.

This model would be threatened by a new, private terminal for low-cost airlines. Finavia already has two terminals in Tampere and Turku, where one of the terminals is dedicated to low-cost airlines. Tasanen says that the number of passengers using Lappeenranta would have to treble from its current level of 60,000 before Finavia would build a new low-cost terminal there.

If permission is granted to build the new terminal, it could begin operations in June. The land on which the Lappeenranta International Airport Ltd has applied for permission to build the new terminal is actually owned by Finavia, and was rented to the city council in order to improve airport activities seven years ago.

“We can’t rent our land to competing operators,” says Reijo Tasanen.
Fearing the competition on what used to be an unused airport! Simply unbelievable - all that is happening within the EU member state!
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Old 24th Feb 2011, 13:22
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The outlook for oil prices is uncertain with some projecting it will rise to $220/barrel. FR will clearly drop sectors as the fuel price goes up. It hedges around 90% of what it uses a year ahead. If we get very steep rises it could pull more than 10% of its flights and sell the hedged fuel on to others at a short term profit. After a year an oil price of over $200/barrel will kill off much of FRs traffic and drive europe into a big downturn. The nightmare for FR is if the revolts spread.
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Old 24th Feb 2011, 14:04
  #630 (permalink)  
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Who is talking about $200? Befree do you not thing the high cost of oil will actually help in the long run, fr has the lowest cost base. It will be the smaller higher cost airline that will go under. Plus this high is a short term rise.

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Old 24th Feb 2011, 16:14
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FR - what's to say that after the credit crunch in 2008, the global economy is now (slowly) recovering. In addition, China and India have seen their economies grow significantly in the last 24 months.
This of course means that China and India have a much higher demand for oil, and the rest of the world is now returning to the level of energy demand similiar to maybe 2006

Oil supply (measured in millions of barrel pumped out per day) has not increased significantly.

The only obvious conclusion, is that the invisible hand of capitalism allocates a higher price to a barrel of crude, and the more elastic consumers (e.g leisure based) find the cost of transport sometimes costing more than they are prepared to pay - i.e. leisure airline passengers find they can make do with staying nearer to home compared to flying

Yes, the blow up in Libya has had a short term effect, but the underlying growing world demand for energy is still driving up the price
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Old 24th Feb 2011, 16:26
  #632 (permalink)  
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But no one long term is expecting $200, if so my shares in rrr.lse would be worth alot more. These gains will be short term then level back down to about $80.
The earlier civil uprising in Tunisia and Egypt saw crude price rise around 20 percent, from US$80 to US$100 a barrel, but now as the revolutionary movement crosses into Libya - and threatens to spread further into more volatile, and oil-rich, parts of the Middle East - the rally has accelerated significantly. Might I add with the new higher prices we will see new oil fields now being cost effective like puntland.
The biggest fear is that the ‘unrest contagion’ could spread to the world's largest oil producing nation Saudi Arabi – where Al Saud, or the House of Saud, has ruled since the kingdom was founded in the nineteen-thirties.
Saudi Arabia is the world’s largest oil exporting nation and it has the largest oil reserve with around 19 percent of the world’s total reserves. So often the region’s politics and the oil industry go hand-in-hand, particularly as threatened and embattled leaders leverage the remaining piece of collateral they hold over Western nations. Yesterday’s reports of Gaddafi’s order - which went unanswered - to blow up the country’s oil and gas infrastructure has echoes of Iraq’s burning oilfields in the days leading up to Desert Storm. So I fail to see how oil will go much above $140 in the short term.
And OPEC spare capacity will also likely be drawn down to 2.1 million barrels a day.
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Old 24th Feb 2011, 16:43
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But no one long term is expecting $200
I'll try to remember to return here next year. I hope YOU are right.
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Old 24th Feb 2011, 16:50
  #634 (permalink)  
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Yeh maybe we should return to all the derampers on here, doom and gloom bunch
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Old 24th Feb 2011, 17:36
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For aviation, oil prices and supply are the elephant in the room aren't they?

Plenty of peeps (geologists, not economists) think they we just may have already gone over peak production. It will take an awful lot of sunflower oil to fill up one of those 737s.

Any ideas what plan B will look like will be read with great interest.



WikiLeaks cables: Saudi Arabia cannot pump enough oil to keep a lid on prices | Business | The Guardian
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Old 24th Feb 2011, 20:48
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Finnish Civil Aviation Authority Finavia is considering withdrawing from Lappeenranta airport if Ryanair carries out its plan to set up a private low-cost terminal there. The current number of passengers is not enough to justify two terminals, according to Finavia's head of airport operations Reijo Tasanen.
It’s currently laid down in law that Finavia maintains Finland’s airport infrastructure. Finavia says that its network of 25 airports all over Finland allows them to service planes at airports that would not otherwise be economically viable.

This model would be threatened by a new, private terminal for low-cost airlines. Finavia already has two terminals in Tampere and Turku, where one of the terminals is dedicated to low-cost airlines. Tasanen says that the number of passengers using Lappeenranta would have to treble from its current level of 60,000 before Finavia would build a new low-cost terminal there.

If permission is granted to build the new terminal, it could begin operations in June. The land on which the Lappeenranta International Airport Ltd has applied for permission to build the new terminal is actually owned by Finavia, and was rented to the city council in order to improve airport activities seven years ago.

“We can’t rent our land to competing operators,” says Reijo Tasanen.
Very interesting. Concerning 180 000 p.a., for Ryanair it is just 3 in/out operations per day with LF~85%, not very hard to achieve even in current year.
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Old 25th Feb 2011, 06:33
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Who is talking about $200? Befree do you not thing the high cost of oil will actually help in the long run, fr has the lowest cost base. It will be the smaller higher cost airline that will go under. Plus this high is a short term rise.

fr-
FT Alphaville Nomura’s $220-a-barrel crisis oil call

FR low base cost only works with low fuel prices and punters who fly in the dead periods. Adding 15 euros to the ticket price will kill off demand at a time when they have even more planes to fill. FR has also done well from high selling prices for 737s. If world airtravel srinks 20% it will be hard to sell 2nd hand planes.
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Old 25th Feb 2011, 06:56
  #638 (permalink)  
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Finavia

Very interesting.
Yes, interesting. In fact, the similar situation takes place in Tampere. The most ugly terminal in Europe, TMP-Pirkkala Two needs acutely some very basic investment to keep it going. Finavia was able to invest 150 millions Euro to support AY's needs in Vantaa and built a new terminal there with no hesitation at all. The cost of a most basic investment in Tampere low-cost would be not more than € 3,3 million. Finavia didn't find the money, no way. Then the city of Tampere with the help of the State has expressed its readiness to provide the sum required. But no, before Finavia gives the green light, the traffic should go up 50%. Yeah, it's however virtually impossible to add more traffic with the present very limited capacity of the terminal in question. And the stalemate situation continues.

Actually, Finavia could easily be re-branded as the National Agency for Protection of Domestic Carrier, it looks more and more that way.

Generally I don't like Ryanair's quarrelsome and defiant conduct on many occasions, but here we do have a typical situation where some strong arguments against Finavia's impartiality could be found.
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Old 25th Feb 2011, 06:58
  #639 (permalink)  
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Nomura’s commodity analysts, led by Michael Lo, are calling for oil at $220 a barrel, if both Libya and Algeria were to stop oil production. Oil’s currently around $113.
Might I add, Gaddafi’s order - which went unanswered - to blow up the country’s oil and gas infrastructure.
No new government will blow up its biggest income of tax.

Plus we have all seen your endless posts about how ryanair will be out of business next year . . . .
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Old 25th Feb 2011, 15:35
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I have never said FR will be out of business next year. What I have repeadly said is the FR business model is breaking and they will soon be making a loss.

With FRs massive capital it will take 5-10 years for them to go under if things go wrong for them. They have already run out of growth in the last few months.

by the way I did predict Silverjet going under and Coventry airport going broke.
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