MANCHESTER - 8
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I think Manchester is a great airport, I think the people are much friendlier than London but I try not to ley my heart rule my head. For the love of God they're certainly more pro-aviation, but if I'm being honest being a Scot, I see the "local" effect in place a lot that I saw back home
I think this is what it all boils down to. We are all proud of our 'little' airport, and amidst all the decline we cling on to any good news we can get. I can tell you that NZ have certainly looked into MAN, but as to how serious, well, we all know that sort of information is confidential and not something I am privvy to.
Bear in mind Company X flying from A to B is NOT the same as Company X making money flying from A to B. I don't see how a small-ish home market like New Zealand can make money flying direct to Manchester.
I think this is a given, but with EK even saying demand is unmet, with such a large connection base I wondere where the 'unmet' demand is to?
Ive read somwhere that NZ has a good casm and low operating costs, so whilst it seems I am throwing darts, I think tapping into the HKG/AKL market at the same time could prove beneficial. Im not advocating a 2 daily B744 service, but maybe a 3-4 weekly B772 service. The seat count is lower, the risk is lower (its pretty much a proven market) and gives pax that extra option.
Actually I got the A380 wrong, I thought MAN would not be up there so quickly
In all fairness, not many thought EK would have sent a 3 class A388 to MAN before the likes of PVG/HKG/JFK? MAN was always on the cards for an A388, but maybe further down the pecking order or a 2 class varient. I think its a case example of showing just how the market dynamics are changing. Yes SQ are on a smaller scale and Via MUC, but who can sit here and honestly say a year ago they forecasted that there would be 2 first class cabins going east by the end of 2010?
I think travel agents can be blamed for the mass migration to LHR for the longhaul flights in the past, as they are usually the 1st options and cheapest. As more people book online and realise the options, I think we will see more of this pattern emerging.
fanboy speculation of other places
a.net, yes is quite fanboy now, but like Ive said before, planemad is actually quite accurate and 90% of posters are genuinly connected to the news they are posting. yes there are some spotters as with every other site, but Id take news off their anyday over other sites.
However I will say Thank you for such a balanced response Skipness
I think this is what it all boils down to. We are all proud of our 'little' airport, and amidst all the decline we cling on to any good news we can get. I can tell you that NZ have certainly looked into MAN, but as to how serious, well, we all know that sort of information is confidential and not something I am privvy to.
Bear in mind Company X flying from A to B is NOT the same as Company X making money flying from A to B. I don't see how a small-ish home market like New Zealand can make money flying direct to Manchester.
I think this is a given, but with EK even saying demand is unmet, with such a large connection base I wondere where the 'unmet' demand is to?
Ive read somwhere that NZ has a good casm and low operating costs, so whilst it seems I am throwing darts, I think tapping into the HKG/AKL market at the same time could prove beneficial. Im not advocating a 2 daily B744 service, but maybe a 3-4 weekly B772 service. The seat count is lower, the risk is lower (its pretty much a proven market) and gives pax that extra option.
Actually I got the A380 wrong, I thought MAN would not be up there so quickly
In all fairness, not many thought EK would have sent a 3 class A388 to MAN before the likes of PVG/HKG/JFK? MAN was always on the cards for an A388, but maybe further down the pecking order or a 2 class varient. I think its a case example of showing just how the market dynamics are changing. Yes SQ are on a smaller scale and Via MUC, but who can sit here and honestly say a year ago they forecasted that there would be 2 first class cabins going east by the end of 2010?
I think travel agents can be blamed for the mass migration to LHR for the longhaul flights in the past, as they are usually the 1st options and cheapest. As more people book online and realise the options, I think we will see more of this pattern emerging.
fanboy speculation of other places
a.net, yes is quite fanboy now, but like Ive said before, planemad is actually quite accurate and 90% of posters are genuinly connected to the news they are posting. yes there are some spotters as with every other site, but Id take news off their anyday over other sites.
However I will say Thank you for such a balanced response Skipness
Join Date: Feb 2007
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Wanna_be_there
A lot of the time the travel agent isn`t really given the option, most business clients to
be fair would rather give their business to a British company first before going to a non UK airline, however BA have never really had any interest in the regions other than a token to show face, they are more for forcing them through Fortress London.
Route deals were done with companies and nearly always the best fare was from London with the shuttle thrown in, which is the same as most tour operators who use
them find as well.
If you were to draw an imaginary line through say North Birmingham accross the country, the people to the north of the line would much prefer Manchester as the departure point ( sorry Birmingham not trying to pinch your traffic but just trying to
prove a point)
Ian B
A lot of the time the travel agent isn`t really given the option, most business clients to
be fair would rather give their business to a British company first before going to a non UK airline, however BA have never really had any interest in the regions other than a token to show face, they are more for forcing them through Fortress London.
Route deals were done with companies and nearly always the best fare was from London with the shuttle thrown in, which is the same as most tour operators who use
them find as well.
If you were to draw an imaginary line through say North Birmingham accross the country, the people to the north of the line would much prefer Manchester as the departure point ( sorry Birmingham not trying to pinch your traffic but just trying to
prove a point)
Ian B
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BA have never really had any interest in the regions other than a token to show face, they are more for forcing them through Fortress London.
The only place BA ever made real money was Heathrow. Commercially, there was little business case for capital investment of new equipment outside of LHR. Even LGW is stuck with classic B737s.
It's got nothing to do with loyalty. BA has been a PLC for over two decades.
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I used to work in the travel industry and know what used to go on,7 they promised the earth to Manchester, got Manchester to build a terminal for them and then said bye bye
The girl who lived next door to us was a BA long haul stewedess and used to commute on the shuttle and I know many others who used to do that.
Ian B
The girl who lived next door to us was a BA long haul stewedess and used to commute on the shuttle and I know many others who used to do that.
Ian B
Last edited by Ian Brooks; 21st Oct 2010 at 17:12.
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I used to work in the travel industry and know what used to go on they promised the earth to Manchester, got Manchester to build a terminal for them and then said bye bye
Two broad options
MAN to alliance hub with feed ie ZRH, FRA, MUC on legacy cost base
MAN to holiday or business destination on LCC cost base
MAN to Europe on point to point with no feed and legacy cost base
The last one is BA and they were squeezed by the first two into smaller aircraft, high fares bigger losses. Ideally, the regional routes from MAN, BHX and GLA should have been shut years ago, this is why the BAC111s lasted so long, this is why they got LHR B737-200s when the world was phasing them out. Commercially it was a battle that wasn't worth the fight as the number of people flying with the cheaper alternative multiplied.
Marketing men promise the Earth and often under deliver.
The girl who lived next door to us was a BA long haul stewedess and used to commute on the shuttle and I know many others who used to do that.
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got Manchester to build a terminal for them
->Yes they did and they shouldn't have
I actually think BA asking MAN to build T1-BA was a good thing for MAN. It spured MAN into action to add capacity that they may not have done off their own back, and later turning it into T3. Its kind of the same way EK asked MAN to build an A380 gate, it adds to the airports appeal.
So, what can we realistically expect for MAN in 2011? (announced and rumoured)
VS- adding LAS, upping BGI, MCO up to 11 weekly (all announced). No other expansion as the B747's are off for a refit so leaves very little slack for new routes. Id expect in 2012 ANU to be launched, thus completing what bmi had (minus ORD) and giving VH their capacity back.
UA/CO- Id honestly expect a B757 to ORD, alongside 2 daily EWR. Will the ORD route push AA off? with ATI Id hope not but the AA ORD tatl routes are few and far between nowdays
DL- Maybe have JFK go up to a B767-300. There were many upgrades to the B763 this summer so likely to be the same story next year but permanantly. Id also expect ATL to move to an A330 with the new crew base, as this year flights are regularly overbooked and cargo is good.
AA- JFK is already confirmed as year round, but Id think any new routes/frequencies are unlikely
EK- The long anticipated 3rd daily/morning flight. Id take a punt at a B777 due to cargo (EK has slashed cargo capacity by around 40% to accomodate the A380), and Id assume that even though the A330 will be better for a more levelled pax increase, it just wont do for cargo.
QR- maybe move up to the B773 due to cargo and maybe keep up with the Joneses. Either that or an increase of around 3-4 weekly with another A330. Due to fleet constraints, the B773 is more likely.
SQ- will they split MAN from MUC and have us as a say, 3 weekly B777 service again? they seem to chop and change that much its hard to say!
CI- With the new air agreement, their TPE hub, large volume of chinese pax, lower cost base and a low frequency, would they be interested? Adding that to the fact hey already have cargo ops, have never been allowed to serve MAN as a pax destination before, and LHR may not have slots that would be worthwhile to them, it could, just could see the light of day. Even more so if they combine us with say, VIE or somewhere to help fill up the cabins (not that they would need help).
Id certainly expect them to up their cargo frequency, they have been stuck at 3 weekly with no chance of increase for years now, and with the agreement upped to 10 weekly, Id be flabberghasted if they didnt increase.
EZY- Id expect 2 more based units and around 5-6 routes (3 per unit). Routes Id expect are:
-LIS, a new base and LIS is underserved from MAN as it is
-SAW, previously rumoured and give a cheap option to IST
-VIE, a good city route, not served from the north-west
-PRG, start a good bun fight with LS/WW
-FRA, Easy seem to like going after star routes from MAN
-AMM, has been rumoured and right outside the box!
Id say there is scope for more but these are my guesses.
WW- these have long rumoured to be expanding from MAN on niche routes, could 2011 finally be the year
LS- have already got a couple of new routes for 2011, but Id bet LS have more plans up their sleeve. Id expect TLV to go 4 weekly on the back end of 2011
So, thats my scope for 2011, what does everyone else think?
->Yes they did and they shouldn't have
I actually think BA asking MAN to build T1-BA was a good thing for MAN. It spured MAN into action to add capacity that they may not have done off their own back, and later turning it into T3. Its kind of the same way EK asked MAN to build an A380 gate, it adds to the airports appeal.
So, what can we realistically expect for MAN in 2011? (announced and rumoured)
VS- adding LAS, upping BGI, MCO up to 11 weekly (all announced). No other expansion as the B747's are off for a refit so leaves very little slack for new routes. Id expect in 2012 ANU to be launched, thus completing what bmi had (minus ORD) and giving VH their capacity back.
UA/CO- Id honestly expect a B757 to ORD, alongside 2 daily EWR. Will the ORD route push AA off? with ATI Id hope not but the AA ORD tatl routes are few and far between nowdays
DL- Maybe have JFK go up to a B767-300. There were many upgrades to the B763 this summer so likely to be the same story next year but permanantly. Id also expect ATL to move to an A330 with the new crew base, as this year flights are regularly overbooked and cargo is good.
AA- JFK is already confirmed as year round, but Id think any new routes/frequencies are unlikely
EK- The long anticipated 3rd daily/morning flight. Id take a punt at a B777 due to cargo (EK has slashed cargo capacity by around 40% to accomodate the A380), and Id assume that even though the A330 will be better for a more levelled pax increase, it just wont do for cargo.
QR- maybe move up to the B773 due to cargo and maybe keep up with the Joneses. Either that or an increase of around 3-4 weekly with another A330. Due to fleet constraints, the B773 is more likely.
SQ- will they split MAN from MUC and have us as a say, 3 weekly B777 service again? they seem to chop and change that much its hard to say!
CI- With the new air agreement, their TPE hub, large volume of chinese pax, lower cost base and a low frequency, would they be interested? Adding that to the fact hey already have cargo ops, have never been allowed to serve MAN as a pax destination before, and LHR may not have slots that would be worthwhile to them, it could, just could see the light of day. Even more so if they combine us with say, VIE or somewhere to help fill up the cabins (not that they would need help).
Id certainly expect them to up their cargo frequency, they have been stuck at 3 weekly with no chance of increase for years now, and with the agreement upped to 10 weekly, Id be flabberghasted if they didnt increase.
EZY- Id expect 2 more based units and around 5-6 routes (3 per unit). Routes Id expect are:
-LIS, a new base and LIS is underserved from MAN as it is
-SAW, previously rumoured and give a cheap option to IST
-VIE, a good city route, not served from the north-west
-PRG, start a good bun fight with LS/WW
-FRA, Easy seem to like going after star routes from MAN
-AMM, has been rumoured and right outside the box!
Id say there is scope for more but these are my guesses.
WW- these have long rumoured to be expanding from MAN on niche routes, could 2011 finally be the year
LS- have already got a couple of new routes for 2011, but Id bet LS have more plans up their sleeve. Id expect TLV to go 4 weekly on the back end of 2011
So, thats my scope for 2011, what does everyone else think?
Join Date: Feb 2004
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wanna_be_there you forgot these...
Biman - but I won't hold my breath !
ANZ - 4 weekly via ???
ACA - possibly to return ? YUL mentioned, but surely it would be YYZ ?
AA - I don't see immediate growth, but we may see the return of both DFW and MIA at some stage.
US - there was talk of CLT. May happen in 2013 ?
Biman - but I won't hold my breath !
ANZ - 4 weekly via ???
ACA - possibly to return ? YUL mentioned, but surely it would be YYZ ?
AA - I don't see immediate growth, but we may see the return of both DFW and MIA at some stage.
US - there was talk of CLT. May happen in 2013 ?
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I think we must be careful that all these TATL changes.
All airlines will now be competing to gain the upper ground. Certainly in the UK Oneworld rule the roost and overall within Europe I think they will have the greatest number of flights across both North and South America. Surely they don't want to give up that status?
My main point is that I hope all these airlines don't launch tens of routes and a number from MAN to gain first ground and/or retaliation to competing airlines operations to then realise they aren't profitable and then dump them.
Just a thought...
All airlines will now be competing to gain the upper ground. Certainly in the UK Oneworld rule the roost and overall within Europe I think they will have the greatest number of flights across both North and South America. Surely they don't want to give up that status?
My main point is that I hope all these airlines don't launch tens of routes and a number from MAN to gain first ground and/or retaliation to competing airlines operations to then realise they aren't profitable and then dump them.
Just a thought...
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ANZ......er they have applied before ! Sorry only us "old Gits" go back that far !
Simply applying for slots is no confirmation the flight will start, last time (circa 10 years back) it was just a bargaining chip.
They wanted extra flights into LHR and applied for additional service into BOTH LHR and MAN.... there was never any intention to serve MAN but the desired result quickly came to pass. They covered their tracks by applying for MAN in case they could not "up" the LHR service....
...and lo it then came to pass that slots suddenly became available and LHR increased !
Here endeth the 3rd lesson ! Hope i'm wrong !
Simply applying for slots is no confirmation the flight will start, last time (circa 10 years back) it was just a bargaining chip.
They wanted extra flights into LHR and applied for additional service into BOTH LHR and MAN.... there was never any intention to serve MAN but the desired result quickly came to pass. They covered their tracks by applying for MAN in case they could not "up" the LHR service....
...and lo it then came to pass that slots suddenly became available and LHR increased !
Here endeth the 3rd lesson ! Hope i'm wrong !
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RE ANZ and indeed Cathay...
Is it possible the success of EK 380 plus the further planned 3rd daily is finally sparking airlines like Cathay into life as their forecast market share Ex London etc is "possibly" starting to erode ?
Is it possible the success of EK 380 plus the further planned 3rd daily is finally sparking airlines like Cathay into life as their forecast market share Ex London etc is "possibly" starting to erode ?
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Manchester loses Malaysia flights over APD - ttglive
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Quoting spannesatcx
Nope not Cathay
Hmm, I dont Know? CX are going to launch at least 2 new destinations next year.
CX themselves have said they want to tap into unmet demand, and Id expect 138000 pax, with at least 40000 of those pax being MAN-HKG O&D traffic, Id say that is deffinatly unmet demand!
I dont know what your guy higher up the tree is telling you spanners, but is it possible he is not telling the truth thus to avoid leakage of information of a possible route? (Im not saying your not trusted, but usually only specific people in a company are told of this kind of info to protect confidentiality)
End of the day, there may be no chance of a CX route, but they tried in 2006 but were stopped by red tape. Maybe they want to try again? Cargo does well so a pax route offset by cargo could possibly be a low risk venture.
Nope not Cathay
Hmm, I dont Know? CX are going to launch at least 2 new destinations next year.
CX themselves have said they want to tap into unmet demand, and Id expect 138000 pax, with at least 40000 of those pax being MAN-HKG O&D traffic, Id say that is deffinatly unmet demand!
I dont know what your guy higher up the tree is telling you spanners, but is it possible he is not telling the truth thus to avoid leakage of information of a possible route? (Im not saying your not trusted, but usually only specific people in a company are told of this kind of info to protect confidentiality)
End of the day, there may be no chance of a CX route, but they tried in 2006 but were stopped by red tape. Maybe they want to try again? Cargo does well so a pax route offset by cargo could possibly be a low risk venture.
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Would Hong Kong Airlines with their 332 not be more of a Manchester Hong Kong potential? They have launched Europe flights recently. Same with Bangkok Airways and Bangkok when they get their 350s.
Regards
Mike
Regards
Mike
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Has the third daily Emirates rotation been confirmed and if so do we have times and flight numbers
Not announced yet, but shoulf be up and running by March 11. No definate times yet.
Would Hong Kong Airlines with their 332 not be more of a Manchester Hong Kong potential? They have launched Europe flights recently
Hong Kong airlines is owned by Hanian, and thus far seem to have avoided MAN. They had a press statement once saying they didnt want to go where there was a lot of competition, hence routes like BRU.
MAN, therefore with no direct competition, could feature in a future plan.
Not announced yet, but shoulf be up and running by March 11. No definate times yet.
Would Hong Kong Airlines with their 332 not be more of a Manchester Hong Kong potential? They have launched Europe flights recently
Hong Kong airlines is owned by Hanian, and thus far seem to have avoided MAN. They had a press statement once saying they didnt want to go where there was a lot of competition, hence routes like BRU.
MAN, therefore with no direct competition, could feature in a future plan.