NEWCASTLE - 8

[Skipness One Echo]

I really cannot see why it couldn't work

It's marginal, Newcastle is not a capital city like Edinburgh nor a large inbound tourist gateway for the the Highlands and Islands like Glasgow. It's an English regional city and given United's Belfast route is hanging by a thread and Bristol was dropped, I don't see United giving it a go. American are phasing out the B757 and USAirways are now part of AA, which leaves Delta who had two goes at EDI and failed. Since BA are not going to be an option and Emirates have many more high yielding options going West from Europe, there's is no likely contender aside from Jet2 doing seasonal IT type ventures while they still have B757s. Virgin don't operate anything small enough and are focussed on maxing out the JV at LHR with Delta.

Going forward NCL are even more likely to be squeezed by an increasingly aggressive EDI, especially if with QR and EY moving in, Emirates decide they don't want to be left out of a rich European capital city. Look how fast EK moved for a third daily MAN to drive QR back to less than twice daily, it's a firefight.

Also given BHX lacks any F offering, I doubt NCL would be in the running? QR don't offer F from EDI nor will EY, the oddball here is EK offering F from GLA (!)

[EK77WNCL]

Yeah apart from those reasons... There is demand enough to make profit... But not as much profit as they want to make.

Your comment about EK is relevant, but will they be allowed into those markets? MXP-JFK kicked up a hell of a fuss. If EK35/36 were to continue on to JFK (after a second flight is introduced) I could see it working, although with slow growth, just as happened with NCL-DXB, which is slowly maturing into something many thought was never possible.

Just so I'm not seeming too NCL centric other routes I could see happening are DXB-MAN-LAX, possibly DXB-MAN-DFW/HOU and DXB-GLA-ORD. I don't think EK would be wanting to start out by going up against the big US legacies on routes to New York from MAN/GLA. LGW could be an option for transatlantic but slots could be difficult.

Emirates and their focus on new markets outside of Dubai will definitely be something to watch. Even though they still have a way to go from DXB.

EDIT: Didn't see your edit, do EK definitely not serve F from BHX... They have the new lounge and everything, same as GLA. I don't think it's fair to compare EY and QR to EK in terms of when/where/how they offer First class. QR is phasing first class out and EY doesn't have many more planes with first either. Emirates is the opposite, granted making them the oddball.

[Kev 1]

British Airways

Increase in capacity on the NCL-LHR route from mid/late November - with up to eight flights per day on selected days - operated by a mixture of A319/A320:

NCL-LHR
1234567 07:45 (09:05) BA1321
123456- 09:35 (11:00) BA1325
---4--- 11:15 (12:35) BA1329
-----6- 11:45 (13:05) BA1327
12345-- 12:15 (13:35) BA1327
-----6- 12:40 (14:00) BA1349
------7 12:40 (14:00) BA1327
------7 13:35 (15:00) BA1325
1------ 13:45 (15:05) BA1349
-234--- 14:35 (15:55) BA1333
1---5-7 14:45 (16:05) BA1333
1234567 15:50 (17:10) BA1331
-----6- 18:10 (19:30) BA1335
12345-7 18:15 (19:35) BA1335
12345-7 20:10 (21:20) BA1337

LHR-NCL
1234567 (07:35) 08:45 BA1324
1234567 (08:40) 09:50 BA1330
1234567 (09:50) 11:00 BA1326
12345-7 (12:45) 13:55 BA1332
1234-67 (15:50) 17:00 BA1334
----5-- (16:00) 17:10 BA1332
-2----- (18:20) 19:30 BA1336
1-34567 (18:25) 19:35 BA1336
12345-7 (20:25) 21:35 BA1338
----5-7 (21:05) 22:15 BA1348
--3---- (21:00) 22:10 BA1328

Thanks, Kev

[tigertanaka]

Good news on BA but why does the 6am flight always disappear during the winter season? 07:45 is too late to connect through LHR when KL do 6am flights from both NCL and MME.

I still live in hope that BA will sign a codeshare agreement with someone to pick up the LGW route. Disappointed at U2 pulling out but without an ability to interline and protect connections, BA destinations such as TPA, MCO etc are not accessible from the North East.

[EK77WNCL]

50 flights per week is excellent, good to see they haven't completely given up on the regions, but I agree LGW would be good to see return.

[pallan]

Good to see BA increasing flights yet again, a slight surprise considering LHR's slot restraints and aircraft being out of service getting their new seats fitted that they add at NCL - great news, shows the confidence they have in the airport.

Ah I see EK and NY have returned...... Sorry EK77WNCL, but how do you know there is demand to make a profit? Genuine question as I'm sure not one person on this site knows if NCL-NYC could make a profit....

[EK77WNCL]

I think that after the success of Dubai, given time to mature, of course there is, New York has a much higher O&D market and is in general in much demand. Emirates, Newcastle Airport and the councils and businesses etc. Say that since EK started, business between the North East and Australia has risen massively, and although Emirates has onward connections to the rest of the world, Someone like UA has extensive connections in the USA. I think that if EK want to make it serious in the EU-US, Asia-US, Australasia-US markets, they will need another QF-like joint venture, and a carrier I can see being willing to do something like that could be AA.

[pallan]

But you don’t know it could make a profit, nor does anyone.

I also don’t understand how you can compare Dubai to New York.
EK has an enormous global network of connections out of Dubai which brings business as well as leisure pax. A NY flight of course would have some business pax on board however the majority will be on packages of 4-7 day sightseeing holidays to New York, travelling in discounted economy fare buckets – the demand may be there yes, but profit, I’m not so sure.

Also, EK has significantly lower costs than any US airline. There are very little, if any, human rights in the UAE, there is no minimum wage (and an average 48 hour work week), fuel is cheaper and then ancillary costs even as small as catering production are cheaper there. These factors are a large part of the reason EK are so successful – they can price many competitors out of the market. The bottom line is that the majority of people book flights based on price; if that means having to one-stop through LHR, AMS, CDG etc over a nonstop then the vast majority would do so to save a bit of money. I just can't see a US airline making a flight economically viable.

What also needs taking into account is the inbound traffic. Newcastle city is a nice place but it’s hardly a tourist hotspot for Americans – the flight may be full of outgoing visitors but may have little inbound traffic, something which the likes of LHR, MAN, EDI etc bring.

There are also other reasons but I don’t want to thread drift even more…

[EK77WNCL]

I mentioned all of the cost base points above and I'm aware of them, hence I said EK is probably our best bet (after LS), namely because no other carriers are interested because they think there is no market.

The only point I'm trying to make is Dubai has built it's own market from Newcastle when it came out of the blue with an unsustainable frequency and aircraft too large for the market... So people said. Why couldn't New York do exactly the same after being at the top of the North East's wishlist for... 15 years?

N.b I would like to say that "very little, if any, human rights" is pretty harsh when generalising a whole country, yes jobs for unskilled workers in Dubai do have harsh working and living conditions from our point of view but it's a damn site better than most of their options at home. For businesses like Emirates, that is untrue, I highly doubt so many European, Australian and American people would work for them that being the case. I don't know if you've been before but the Middle East gets a lot of bad cop over here, Qatar seems about 10 years behind Dubai in all respects, including human rights, but seldom is it as bad as made out over here. I have spoken to plenty of "working class" people in Dubai, who will be doing these kind of jobs and they are happy with the jobs they have. Finally with regards to a 48 hour week and no minimum wage, yes it is not ideal, we probably think it's very unfair over here but you still can't get away from the fact that the UAE is a developing country, the UK was hardly fair in the 1800's was it? I think they've probably beaten us on that one and I'm sure they'll even themselves out to "our standards" soon enough. Any airline based in the ME has advantages of lower labour costs, fuel costs (for now), no tax (does that work both ways?) but it's the luck of the draw and times change.

List of minimum wages by country - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

[pallan]

'Why couldn't New York do exactly the same after being at the top of the North East's wishlist for... 15 years?'

Has it really though? Apart from spotters, I haven't exactly seen a mass flock of people desperate for a NY flight for the last 15 years when they can go through LHR, AMS, CDG etc relatively easy and for quite cheap.

I'd love it to happen don't get me wrong but just can't see it working.

[SWBKCB]

Its unfair to describe NY as just a spotter fantasy as its regularly mentioned by the airport and other regional "movers and shakers" as being a priority.

What I find a bit unrealistic, though, is the thought that the UK and/or the USA would grant EK fifth freedom rights out of NCL - why on earth would they??

[HeathrowDictator]

Qatar seems about 10 years behind Dubai in all respects,

Correct

including human rights, but seldom is it as bad as made out over here.

Not true...what is reported in the UK only scratches the surface.

As for NCL getting a NYC route...it was only a matter of time before it was mentioned again here...it will not happen any time soon. Airlines know their markets and cost bases a lot more than the "experts" we see frequenting the forums and if there was profit to be made the route would be there. We need to move past NYC and look at the vast number of routes NCL does have which are doing very well!

Just my 2p...

-HD-

[HH6702]

I agree it MAY not happen for a while but we all hope it will.

The point made was why when people go via other hubs,
AMS,CDG,LHR then onwards to USA/CANADA.

This is very true but WHY SHOULD WE?

Loads of people fly daily via these hubs to the USA and I'm sure if we did have a link to a USA hub on the east coast it could work.

Airlines don't want to take the risk of making a small profit when they can make slightly more flying half empty planes from heathrow but they have the business class pax there.

Same story as easyjet more money to be made from the south.

Delta could work from NCL even a codeshare with virgin holidays then there is a brand that is well know in the UK too.

Surely there hasn't been a lot of change in the market since AA planned it.
They knew there was a market then just the cost of fuel stopped it. Fuel is now less or more level now then back then so maybe we aren't too far away !!

[Skipness One Echo]

EK is not a point to point carrier, it's a classic hub and spoke operator with geographical and cost base advantages. There are numerous options west from NCL with BA, KLM etc, there's one way east mopping it up. People get blinded to this as EK operate one heavy to their hub daily whereas the others operate numerous narrow bodies.
If NYC is even an outside possibility, who would operate? See my post above as to who is unlikely to try.

What makes you think Delta can make JFK work from NCL when it failed at EDI and manages MAN only peak summer each year?

[Hipennine]

S1E has it spot on. BA announce increased rotations NCL-LHR (7 per day), with multiple rotations to NYC and other US from LHR and with onward connections throughout N.america. The high rollers (not that there's many in the NE anyway) will go for the frequency via LHR, rather than once per day (or less) direct possibility, whoever any possible carrier may be. Move on.

[ATNotts]

NCL and UK regions to NYC

The problem here is that for NCL, and for that matter everywhere else apart from LHR and MAN, the chances of sustaining more than a once daily service to New Yorks are pretty slim.

Regional Chambers of Commerce always bang on about what international and long haul connections they want from their local airports, but their members (the companies that make up the chamber memberships) then go off and use their chosen alliances (Star, One World etc) via London, or Manchester, to get the multi daily frequencies and best prices.

New York isn't a good hub; if you want to hub in the USA then Chicago or Atlanta are streets ahead - but even then, as has been said, the hub and spoke opportunities are so much greater in Dubai than they are in the USA, where you can get to pretty well anywhere, provided it's in North America.

Look at BHX for example, bigger market than NCL, but can't even sustain a daily EWR through the winter months. BRS was dropped by United, and Belfast probably only hangs on due to (ex pat. Irish) political pressure and the bribe regarding APD which the rest of UK doesn't benefit from.

My advice - forget about New York; look east, that is where the world's industrial powerhouses are, and before too long, where the principal centre of commerce will be, whether or not the US and EU like it or not.

[Heathrow Harry]

tend to agree - almost certainly enough people from the NE going to North America to pay for a daily flight but how many go to New York?

probably less than 50% - the rest go t o Toronto, SFO, LAX and Florida

If someone was staging through and could pick up some passengers it might have worked but these days with a A330 or a B777 almost anywhere in Europe can do a direct flight to the E coast of the USA without a stop

[LFT]

the oddball here is EK offering F from GLA

Why's that then?

[CabinCrewe]

its historically not the highest yielding airport. Just ask EZY etc. It is therefore a surprise that GLA achieved EK F. Lets hope its not full of upgraders. Do you know otherwise ?

[LFT]

No, but Emirates obviously do.