FlyBe - 6
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Not difficult to do a quick ACARS check and see that all E195's except for one are in service today. The odd one is 'EE which is presumably under MX, as it hasn't flown since Friday.
Last edited by Tonyq; 5th Nov 2012 at 15:29.
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195's
insuindi
The answer is quite straightforward - It is just the winter schedule, which has all the based 195's on the ground after their first morning return until mid afternoon other than the one operating for Air France. The spare might have been there as well.
One 195 does CDG x 3 (on the ground from 10.15 - 12.20 & 15.50-17.20 appr)
Another BHX-BHD-BHX-GLA-BHX-BHD-BHX The first BHD arrives around 09.50 and the Glasgow departs 15.00
The other does 3 x EDI but the morning in is around 10.20 and it stays to 14.45.
Of course they can mix and match and this is only a guide but you should see three parked up around midday, one boarding for CDG and visiting 195's from EDI, GLA & BHD. So anything up to six or seven between 11.45-12.45. The two 175's should be in as well on long turnarounds for DUS and MXP.
Pete
The answer is quite straightforward - It is just the winter schedule, which has all the based 195's on the ground after their first morning return until mid afternoon other than the one operating for Air France. The spare might have been there as well.
One 195 does CDG x 3 (on the ground from 10.15 - 12.20 & 15.50-17.20 appr)
Another BHX-BHD-BHX-GLA-BHX-BHD-BHX The first BHD arrives around 09.50 and the Glasgow departs 15.00
The other does 3 x EDI but the morning in is around 10.20 and it stays to 14.45.
Of course they can mix and match and this is only a guide but you should see three parked up around midday, one boarding for CDG and visiting 195's from EDI, GLA & BHD. So anything up to six or seven between 11.45-12.45. The two 175's should be in as well on long turnarounds for DUS and MXP.
Pete
Last edited by OltonPete; 5th Nov 2012 at 17:56. Reason: added text
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Not good.
Flybe
That's after what is traditionally the strongest part of the year.
Doesn't bode well.
Flybe
It warned there may be some impact on its workforce – consisting of 3,000 staff in the UK and up to 700 in Europe
Doesn't bode well.
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Obviously I'm not privy to internal guff now but would set up costs from Flybe Nordic account for the difference? If so why not say so in the media release?
Looks like another IFSD today too.
Looks like another IFSD today too.
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Obviously this is not good news, but none of it is actually new. Flybe have already forecast a full year loss of around £15m for 2012/2013 (the figure being announced today is for the first/traditionally strongest half of 2012/2013). The four aircraft being parked has also been known for some time.
It's also worth mentioning that the internal email I received today regarding the half year results makes no mention of job losses or jobs being at risk. Of course the impact on staff doesn't necessarily mean job losses, it could be just another year or two of no bloody pay rise.
Time will tell. Lets hope the government see sense and stop flogging domestic passengers with APD - this hits Flybe hard.
It's also worth mentioning that the internal email I received today regarding the half year results makes no mention of job losses or jobs being at risk. Of course the impact on staff doesn't necessarily mean job losses, it could be just another year or two of no bloody pay rise.
Time will tell. Lets hope the government see sense and stop flogging domestic passengers with APD - this hits Flybe hard.
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Fuel Hedging
To be fair, it looks like last year's fuel costs were flattered as a result of FlyBe hedging at a rate well below the market. This year the hedged cost looks to be pretty much in line with the market price. So you can't really blame FlyBe management for the fact that they weren't as fortunate this year as last.
That's not to say that these aren't a pretty sick set of numbers. FlyBe are rapidly burning through the cash they raised in the IPO - when the share price was 295p compared with 50p ish now. They really have to turn things round quickly or they will be very short on cash in a year or two.
That's not to say that these aren't a pretty sick set of numbers. FlyBe are rapidly burning through the cash they raised in the IPO - when the share price was 295p compared with 50p ish now. They really have to turn things round quickly or they will be very short on cash in a year or two.
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I'm not so sure that it is either a mistake or a mismanagement.
Fuel costs are high, APD has been increased, there is a recession and with Europe not in a fine state, less people are prepared to pay much to travel. Also, there is then the small matter of £20m in card charges no longer being collected.
Fuel costs are high, APD has been increased, there is a recession and with Europe not in a fine state, less people are prepared to pay much to travel. Also, there is then the small matter of £20m in card charges no longer being collected.
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If the airline can't cover fuel then it will cease to function!!! Where else can cost savings be made???? Easy and Ryanair were charging debit card fees till the beginning of Nov. Maybe Flybe were a little hasty in removing that charge??? How do other airlines cover the rise in fuel price??????
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The problem with fuel hedging is that you don't always get it right. If a company hedges one year and makes a win that's good. I imagine the broker will probably price it to get his money back next year! If you hedge at what you think is a good price and then the price falls you're stuffed. There's probably an element of the old crystal ball in there somewhere.
The £20m was a figure quoted in my ART course a couple of months back. It probably offset any yield and a considerable bit more too.
I accept that the Europe thing is getting tiresome now. But, because it has been going on since 2007 doesn't make it any less a fact.
Flybe need bums on seats and at a fair price too.
Hopefully the 1% increase in the economy recently announced will give a bit of consumer confidence and start to turn the corner
The £20m was a figure quoted in my ART course a couple of months back. It probably offset any yield and a considerable bit more too.
I accept that the Europe thing is getting tiresome now. But, because it has been going on since 2007 doesn't make it any less a fact.
Flybe need bums on seats and at a fair price too.
Hopefully the 1% increase in the economy recently announced will give a bit of consumer confidence and start to turn the corner
Last edited by Certa Cito; 8th Nov 2012 at 17:38.
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Whilst I accept that any business must adapt and respond to the trading conditions it finds itself in, much of the time the degree to which you react is dictated by past knowledge and experience. The cyclical business nature of regional air travel has never experienced a downturn so deep, nor as long as the one we are currently experiencing so I think that flybe can be forgiven for not having taken an knee jerk reaction. I guess the underlying question any business needs to ask is at what point does the environment we are in now become the new norm?
I also think that what hasn't been highlighted as much here is that for the most part, when personal budgets are tight the one thing we seemingly don't give up is our week in the sun. The weekend city breaks and that extra visit to see friends and family and relatives get ditched in favour of preserving the summer holiday and this is perhaps why the likes of Ryanair and Easyjet are still recording strong figures. Perhaps Flybe have recognised this too as they have laid on more Med flights next year and added EXT and SOUBCN routes which may help them to take a bigger slice of the summer holiday pie.
I just hope its enough - but god help us on APD! When will the government listen - and don't get me started on the big airports who seemingly report every increasing operational profits.
I also think that what hasn't been highlighted as much here is that for the most part, when personal budgets are tight the one thing we seemingly don't give up is our week in the sun. The weekend city breaks and that extra visit to see friends and family and relatives get ditched in favour of preserving the summer holiday and this is perhaps why the likes of Ryanair and Easyjet are still recording strong figures. Perhaps Flybe have recognised this too as they have laid on more Med flights next year and added EXT and SOUBCN routes which may help them to take a bigger slice of the summer holiday pie.
I just hope its enough - but god help us on APD! When will the government listen - and don't get me started on the big airports who seemingly report every increasing operational profits.
What part of Flybe's business is taking the pain ? Just UK domestic ?
The fact that Flybe have cut their flying to France significantly for next summer as well as the reduction at Gatwick suggests that was also a cause of losses.
I know that fuel has gone up, but every single flight needs fuel. Thus it should be possible to apportion the increased cost of fuel to every single route, and then see which routes or bases are suffering the biggest losses
The fact that Flybe have cut their flying to France significantly for next summer as well as the reduction at Gatwick suggests that was also a cause of losses.
I know that fuel has gone up, but every single flight needs fuel. Thus it should be possible to apportion the increased cost of fuel to every single route, and then see which routes or bases are suffering the biggest losses
Last edited by davidjohnson6; 9th Nov 2012 at 09:52.
If you look back at previous accounts, they did have some quite good fuel hedges in place at about $800/tonne. It was pretty evident that when those hedges expired (and hedges can only delay the onset of a sustained rise in fuel prices rather than eliminate them) then Flybe's fuel price would go from a pretty good level up to the current market trends at around $1,000/tonne. That was always going to hurt, but the pointers about this were in the previous set of accounts.
I'd be more worried about the free cash level - dropping from £70m to £29m in one year is a concern.
I'd be more worried about the free cash level - dropping from £70m to £29m in one year is a concern.
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The thing about fuel hedging - as Flightrider points out - is that every hedge runs out!
The challenge is then to move on to what the next best deal is and heads need examining if anyone honestly thinks that if Flybe (or any other airline, come to that) would do anything other than get the best deal available
. And looking at the Flybe hedging deals, they are virtually bang on the industry going rate.
I thought it was interesting that they went out of their way to put staff cost increases of 7.7% year on year (page 10 of report) down to one group of staff alone. And who's to blame? Yup - you got it, those nasty pilots.
The challenge is then to move on to what the next best deal is and heads need examining if anyone honestly thinks that if Flybe (or any other airline, come to that) would do anything other than get the best deal available
. And looking at the Flybe hedging deals, they are virtually bang on the industry going rate. I thought it was interesting that they went out of their way to put staff cost increases of 7.7% year on year (page 10 of report) down to one group of staff alone. And who's to blame? Yup - you got it, those nasty pilots.
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Cashflow
Agree with Flightrider that cashflow is FlyBe's main problem. This really ought not to be the case after all of the cash they raised in the IPO. But most of that is now gone. At the time of the August trading statement FlyBe said they should still achieve a positive operating cashflow this year. But based on this week's results it now looks as though cashflow will be a negative £15million or so for the full year. They can't sustain that for much longer. And even cutting the cost base would only achieve a breakeven position, which isn't really a comfortable position to be in when you have £600m worth of new aircraft on order. Something has to give, but I really don't know what.