Aer Lingus - 5

[johnrizzo2000]

Pre-clearance is done on EI105/137/123. EI133/127 is done in SNN. All other flights EI109/121/147 and 119 are done state-side.

EI already serves WAW ex DUB and seems to do very well. At one point there was LOT/Central Wings, Ryanair, Norwegian aswell as EI. Now its down to a daily EI flight, most of the time operated with the A321. Vilnius also does well ex DUB.

I think EI can handle competition from Flybe ex LGW. Getting the frequent flier programme would help a lot to. I'm keen to see the LGW winter timetable when its released in June, to see the stance EI takes against EZY increasing VIE, MUC etc

[TartinTon]

EI-RB take off your Lingus glasses as they're a bit blurred. They are gonna get their butts kicked. Let's see what happens when the ludicrous amounts of marketing spend runs out and they have to actually make money out of the routes. Bye bye Lingus.....

[tigger2k8]

thx for the info johnrizzo2000

also, does anyone know if the BFS winter schedule is confirmed, or is there a chance of change? ive only seen a rough draft of it which is on 2 base aircraft.

[The Flying Cokeman]

Hear hear Tartinton.


EI-RB what makes you say that EI suits LGW better than EZY? Because of their green color that matches the green Leith hill or....


EI will never beat EZY in LGW and if it's a matter of dumping the prices like EI does, well then it's a matter of when rather than if they run out cash.

EI has shown the world in the first quarter of this year that by giving tickets away for nothing to compete against EZY- 10% of their total cash reserve has vanished ooh and their revenue per passenger has dropped by 20% as well.

The only one bleeding in LGW at the moment is Aer Lingus and I doubt that is gonna change.

I wouldn't be surprised if they gonna pull out this winter and BFS too when a new CEO takes the control.

To me this looks like when Hitler made the mistake of fighting on 2 fronts, EI has done the same against FR and EZY, a fight the Shamrock can't possibly win, too small and not enough cash reserves.

[tigger2k8]

I wouldn't be surprised if they gonna pull out this winter and BFS too when a new CEO takes the control.

sorry, that made me laugh..

with the routes EI have this winter, they are probably set for their most successful winter at BFS since they moved in (AGP, ACE and TFS will do great, ACE on average had 150 PAX during last winter and well AGP and TFS will be set for the same as N.I travellers might aswell live there) getting rid of (BCN, CDG and MXP while disappointing was a wise move for winter... as EZY have enough flights to serve the route, except at Christmas..)

[johnrizzo2000]

Spending a lot on advertising? EI actually got extremely cheap advertising for all of its bases. Advertising has increased yet the adversting budget was cut way back.

EI is loosing money in LGW because the base is barely open. If they were making money already, It would be a miracle, as few if any airlines can launch a base and make money after 2 months. EI wouldnt be planning to base 8 aircraft in LGW if they didnt think they had a chance. EI is very conservative and reserved in terms of expansion, so obviously they see potential in LGW.

I see an a/c being moved from BFS to LGW. The sun routes do well ex BFS, and LHR seems to be coming along, but thats about it

[The Flying Cokeman]

You might be right, but you can't make money on a great winter schedule only.
I know a few people flying for EI in BFS and they have told me of very bad loads in general since the base startup. Not that I wan't to talk with an orange hat on but I'm sure if there are gonna be some very good routes then EZY or even someone else will come onto these routes in the near future.

Time will tell ?

[Shamrock350]

I think it's very naive to think EI are better suited to LGW than EZY!

EI have a big fight on their hands, they know this and that's why they've gone in aggressively with lower fares, better schedules and a big advertising campaign. All of this costs money so it's a big risk and the base probably won't make money for the first year but there is room for EI and there is big potential for them to make money and name for themselves at LGW.

Load factors from what I have heard aren't that bad at all and the EI chairman has said bookings are strong but admitted that he wasn't sure about yield which says to me that he was being completely honest and there was none of that spin like there was with Dermot Mannion about Belfast. Aer Lingus have actually made some big changes at Belfast, they've axed the weakest routes and kept the strongest so right now the winter schedule looks good and these changes are said to see the base break even this year.

All this talk of Aer Lingus giving away flights at Gatwick is quite honestly rubbish, the cheapest one way fares available are £24.99 for NOC, MUC, NCE and ZRH, £26.99 for VIE and FAO while AGP has been £29.99 since the base was announced. Hardly giving away flights at those fares are they?

There is no denying that EI have fight on their hands and it will be tough but those at EZY need to realise that it might not be the walk over they think it will be and that the arrogance from them is worth nothing right now.

[davidjohnson6]

the cheapest one way fares available are £24.99 for NOC, MUC, NCE and ZRH

I don't know about the fares currently on sale, but I know that I picked up a round-trip LGW-NCE-LGW for £19.98 from EI's website for a spring weekend - yes that means EI were selling seats out of LGW on a Saturday morning for £9.99 or less than the cost of APD. At that fare it seemed rude not to take advantage of such an aggressive (and money-losing ?) fare. I may be a bit of a fare shark, but I suspect that EI were subsidising seats to this extent for quite a few other people as well

[Shamrock350]

You're right, Aer Lingus did have very low and likely loss making fares for quite a long period of time in the run up to the base opening. They were probably hoping that their higher baggage charges and credit card fees would compensate a bit. I believe those fares were part of the £9.99 sale however that ended in early April and since then the cheapest available has been £24.99 one way excluding handling fee and other optional charges.

[servisairlgw]

What new routes do you think that Aer Lingus are going to announce from Gatwick for the winter season then ?

Surley the canaries must be favourite ( TFS / LPA / ACE )
Good move may well be into Egypt ( SSH / HRG )
But not sure if the A320s have the range for these routes ex Gatwick ?
And then from Christmas onwards a couple of SKI routes wouldnt go amiss either ( SZG , GVA , TLS )

Any thoughts anyone

[Seljuk22]

All these routes are operated by EZY. And everyone knows what will happen if EI announce these routes. Are there no better routes?

[brian_dromey]

I think it will be routes similar to that, with a few city routes as well, basically as BA pull down routes EI will take them up. The thing to remember is that LGW has an enormous catchment area. There is room for EI and U2 at LGW although the presence of EI at LGW will clearly hurt U2's yields. They were rapidly becoming the only game in town.

[A319-100]

I think due to poor decision making on Aer lingus's part they have made big enemies with both Easy and Ryanair. These two airlines are by far the strongest and most agressive airlines that Aer Lingus could go head to head with. By putting a headline banner on your website of "EASILY BEATING EASYJET AT GATWICK" before you had even established a base is crazy. EasyJets response to that has been to announce new coinciding routes as well as increasing frequency on the existing matches. Aer lingus are not going to win that battle,without a doubt. You are right however that there is enough of a catchment area. If they opened the base, chose other routes and didn't directly target Easy they may have had a chance. Quote from Andy Harrison at the preliminary results presentation "Aer Lingus thought they could challenge us at BFS and they have struggled and have got a bloody nose, we expect the same to happen at Gatwick"

As an Irishman I am dissapointed to see Aer Lingus under a bit of pressure but a lot of it is down to their poor decision making. I just hope that they don't stick with potentially loss making bases so as not to lose face. I am not sure how bright the future is

[EI-BUD]

EI @ LGW & Easyjet

Jet2 and Easyjet both flew from Belfast to a range of destination, and generally didnt go head to head. Easyjet didnt go after the Jet2 markets. That was of course until Jet2 decided to launch service onto some of Easyjets markets, Eg Pisa, Palma and a few other's I cant remember specifically. The resultant was that Easyjet lauched head on with Jet2 on Belfast Prague, Barcelona, Ibiza etc.

Easyjet wont react to a competitor unless they are provoked, and dont usually follow carriers onto routes unless that same carrier has offered a specific challenge.. eg Aer Lingus.

Aer Lingus certainly have made cut backs at Belfast and it looks like down to 2 aircraft at the base in winter, but whether the market is soft or whatever, Easyjet know full well that after a sustained period of competition and consistency Aer Lingus will axe the loss making markets. Easyjet wont have to spend nearly as much to market any LGW routes as the travelling public know that Easyjet are 'big at Gatwick'. Aer Lingus while they are good and want to grow have a massively up hill battle against Easyjet.

[flying_shortly]

I'm optimistic about Aer Lingus at Gatwick. It's a big population there. Not to mention Aer Lingus have the advantage of a nicer and easier to use website. Easy's is just cluttered to the hilt!

They should really use the aircraft themselves to advertise. I know myself when flying you do look out the window and you do notice what is said on the planes. That'd be relatively cheap and effective! Maybe they already do, not sure...

[firstchoice7e7]

They should try LPA and TFS/TFN. Fares always seem to be high with EZY during winter on these routes.

[davidjohnson6]

They should try LPA and TFS/TFN. Fares always seem to be high with EZY during winter on these routes

LCCs (including Easyjet) typically choose flight sectors with an average length of around 1,000 km or 1,100 km so as to maximise profitability.

LGW - TFS is about 2,900 km. While this is not a tripling of costs to the airline (e.g. don't need to pay 3 sets of airport charges or Govt taxes), this still means a lot more time in the air, fuel burn, airframe use, crew hours, etc... as well as only one set of punters (rather than 3) to whom one can flog food / drink / credit card and baggage charges / insurance / other ancillaries.

There is quite a good analysis of this at:
10 of the best analysed: The great global LCC network strategy comparison | anna.aero

[akerosid]

While I'm generally optimistic about EI at LGW, I do have a concern that when it gets "down and dirty" between U2 and EI, U2 may have the upper hand between the two purely because it's using a smaller aircraft; given identical loads on either airline's aircraft, the A319 will surely be more economical than the 320?

Incidentally, I understand from another site that EI-EWR is due to be returned to the lessor this week; the planned "power by the hour" operation will not be going ahead.

JetPhotos.Net Photo » EI-EWR (CN: 330) Aer Lingus Airbus A330-202 by John Fitzpatrick

[globetrotter79]

What new routes do you think that Aer Lingus are going to announce from Gatwick for the winter season then ?

Surley the canaries must be favourite ( TFS / LPA / ACE )
Good move may well be into Egypt ( SSH / HRG )
But not sure if the A320s have the range for these routes ex Gatwick ?
And then from Christmas onwards a couple of SKI routes wouldnt go amiss either ( SZG , GVA , TLS )

The Irish have always been big into ACE, plus with TFS being the main Canaries destination for the Brits, I'd very much expect LGW-ACE and LGW-TFS to be high up the list of things they'd do this winter.

Egypt: as this is a non-EU destination and does not have an open skies agreement with the EU, I don't see how any non-UK (or Egyptian) scheduled service carrier would be permitted to service any LGW-Egypt routes.

Ski - normally makes sense in winter for any LCC, just that the core ski routes are already pretty saturated ex-LGW. Then again, it never stopped EI doing LGW-AGP etc!!

City - perhaps EI will use the winter season drop in demand for leisure routes to use spare aircraft capacity to start another city route. Given frequency reductions etc post Cityflyer Express and now rather pitiful SN offering, perhaps a double daily LGW-BRU?