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Old 7th Apr 2009, 09:01
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RTÉ Business: Aer Lingus passengers numbers down 7%

Aer Lingus March passenger numbers

2009 - 835,000 down by 7%.

Yield up from 75.3% to 75.6 %
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Old 7th Apr 2009, 09:43
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Load Factor:

78.6% on Short Haul (up 0.3%)
71.5% on Long Haul (down 0.8%)

The numbers seem to be no worse than other airlines across the industry, short-haul seems to be holding it's own once again but long-haul is a worry.

I doubt there's much panicking going on regarding these numbers, the later Easter may have played a big part in this performance and short-haul is actually staying relatively steady.
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Old 7th Apr 2009, 09:48
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I would assume any deal with Air France would have the government putting in place some guarantees on the Heathrow slots. Having seen what happened to services from Rotterdam and Eindhoven to Heathrow after the merger with KLM and Open Skies coming in, they would have to be clued into that.

But then this is the Irish government we're talking about...

One things for certain, they need the money.
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Old 7th Apr 2009, 09:58
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sacre bleu.....AF will have to talk to Michael though re that other 30 per cent.
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Old 7th Apr 2009, 10:10
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the ESOT and Pilots are expected to be asked shortly to get behind the deal which will see AF become the majority shareholder in Aer Lingus.
How does the current shareholding breakdown?
Government? Ryanair? Pilots? etc?

Can AF become the majority shareholder without Ryanair or the Irish government selling them any shares?

So AF will be obliged to take over EI no? Once they have more than 30% of the shares?
And are AF an entity unto themselves capable of this? Isn't it AF/KLM?

Anyone know the status of AF/KLM investing in the new Alitalia?
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Old 7th Apr 2009, 11:04
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AF equals AF/KL, they are one company. They own 25% of the 'new' Alitalia with first dibs on the rest of it in 5 years when the investors who own the other 75% are allowed to sell their share.
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Old 7th Apr 2009, 11:36
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FT is quoting more of an alliance than a trade sale with Goldman Sachs being engaged to talk to potential airlines/groups.
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Old 7th Apr 2009, 12:05
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Share price down 7% this afternoon
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Old 7th Apr 2009, 12:12
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I'm not sure what form an alliance could take.

There's already close co-operation with KLM on the Amsterdam route. Where would it lead CityJet to Paris? Could Aer Lingus even absorb CityJet in return for AF/KLM taking a stake?
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Old 7th Apr 2009, 13:25
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March Pax figures

Various airlines released figures today, EI are not the worst.

Aer Lingus down 7%
Finnair down 8%
AF / KLM down 9.4%
SAS down 16.7%
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Old 7th Apr 2009, 15:18
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AF taking a share in EI is a foolish idea unless you can buy all shareholders out.......unlikely unless at a very significantly higher price. Why would shareholders who turned down 1.40 euros sell at less.
Because dear boy, the people who refused to sell to your boss will sell to the devil to thwart him. You just don't get it, do you....either that or you're pretending to be dumber than you really are.

No reason for FR to sell its shares so EI couldn't be delisted from the stock exchange.
Holding 29.9% means that Board could never get 75% vote at AGM or EGM to do lots of stuff including major investment.
Listen buddy, when the wind is blowing a certain way, Micko will get the message. He's not welcome. Holding on to his puny shareholding against a hostile 70% opposition will do him no good whatever. He'll merely have a packet of money tied up in a business where he'll have ZERO influence. Unlike you I think he'll know when the games up and cut a deal to get out.

Other than that there are numerous stock-market wheezes which might see him off, including a share issue to dilute his holding and pass the 75% target to de-list. Its the same strategy O'Leary himself wanted to use - reversed against him.

You need 90.001% before you can compulsorarily acquire the rest of the shares.
Yeah yeah....they'll get it if they want it. They'll have the full support of the ESOT, the Pilots, the Government etc...

Any action taken by board which impacts negatively on a minority shareholder pretty much guaranteed going to court and that would include transferring route to AF or anything that would impact on value of minority shareholders holding in a company.
Huh. Tell it to Micko.

Not convinced EI board are doing this with support of its shareholders.
What would you know? The only shareholder you're interested in is thick Mick.
What is in it for AF ? Don't see anything there for them.
Just another step along the road to their European Mega Carrier destination.
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Old 7th Apr 2009, 17:27
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Yeah yeah....they'll get it if they want it. They'll have the full support of the ESOT, the Pilots, the Government etc...
Rivet any truth in the rumours that the pilots are looking to increase their holding?
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Old 7th Apr 2009, 18:39
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I might be putting two and two together and getting ten, but for those not aware of it, we just had an emergency budget here in Ireland today, and the following is a direct quite from the speech the Minister of Finance made

We need to explore all options to fund our infrastructure needs including the disposal of assets, sale and leaseback arrangements, franchising arrangements and the proposal from ICTU for a National Recovery Bond. My officials have been asked to examine these options with the relevant Departments and agencies.
The EI share holding would be considered an asset.

While economic times are different, the argument about large airline vs small airline has raged in the industry for decades. EI, as a small player has, traditionally, had the Irish State as it's only share holder to fall back on for cash when times were tight. Today that share holding is wider. It is possible that EI can survive as an independent player outside of any major alliance or other arrangement. It would not be easy, but it would not be impossible.

JAS
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Old 7th Apr 2009, 18:45
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The EI share holding would be considered an asset.
Yup but accepting less than 1.40 a share is unlikely to occur.

Why accept 90 when 200 million was on the table.
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Old 7th Apr 2009, 19:44
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And allow the man from Mullingar to have complete control over your air transport links and therefore national interests. The government are useless imbeciles but on this matter they got it right.
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Old 7th Apr 2009, 20:08
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Why would shareholders who turned down 1.40 euros sell at less.
There has been no talk of a price per share offer.
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Old 7th Apr 2009, 21:12
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There has been no talk of a price per share offer.
Not yet but there will have to be one IF AF are interested but somehow don't think an offer will get made.......they would have to spend lots of cash.

Its not legally possible with a listed company just to buy 20% then work in concert with someone holding 5% and 25% which is why it would need to be a cash offer.

Irish Takeover panel were pretty clear what you can and cannot offer in a takeover and pretty much anything that shows one shareholder getting a preference over another is ruled out. It would likely get stuck in court for a year or two.

Given the AF Alliance with Delta from Heathrow and potentially Conti/NW though Conti looking to join Star Alliance then wonder what benefit there is to have more planes flying the Atlantic with poor numbers when you can push them through CDG or AMS.

If happens then EI is dead for Long Haul expansion and probably Long Haul with exception of Legacy routes like Bos / NYC and Ord.

Brand name may be used BUT does anybody think AF would look after Irish or French employees first ?

Biggest question is what is in it for AF ?
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Old 8th Apr 2009, 16:20
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AER LINGUS said it never held merger talks with Air France despite mounting speculation that meetings between the airlines have taken place.


JAS
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Old 8th Apr 2009, 19:07
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let's not forget Shannon in this equation. FR are apparently pulling off a heap of routes ex SNN such as faro, malaga and barcelona (girona). These flights I've been on a number of times as well as my family and friends and reports come back saying that they are always full. There's an opportunity for EI to jump in and take em and keep em. SNNLHR is back and there's a 321 going onto it for the summer due to the high bookings already.
FR aren't pulling off any of the routes mentioned. They aren't pulling off any sun routes at all in fact, they are mainly pulling off UK and Eastern European destinations. I can't see EI jumping onto any of these routes since they are to destinations with little or no EI presence. Berlin is the only one I can think of that EI have a presence at but thats highly unlikely since it would damage EI's own Cork-Berlin route. As far as I know the change to an A321 is as a result of an extra A321 being switched to the DUB-LHR route to make up for the loss of 2 rotations daily (due to the slots being used to relaunch SNN-LHR). SNN-LHR is operated by a Dublin based aircraft (which overnights in Heathrow). From what I've read on another site, initial loads on SNN-LHR haven't been great.
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Old 9th Apr 2009, 02:33
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In fact EI operate to all the previously mentioned destinations already from ORK (320), DUB (320/321/330), BFS(320) and now LGW(320). Also it's worth noting that an A330 (275 - 327 pax) is operating an all year round service to Malaga from Dublin EVERY morning and a 320/1 operates again later in the day. Faro is serviced ex DUB by a A321 (212 pax) at least once a day and twice a day during the summer. So the presence of EI in these destinations is quite significant. As regards the initial loads on SNNLHR. That is a normal situation to occur when a route initially starts.

As regards the 321. The a/c is based in LHR - as in it overnights in LHR. So the flight originates from LHR first thing in the morning and then terminates later on in the evening in LHR. In between it does go to DUB but that accomodates a mid day operation. There are also 320 mid day operations between DUB and LHR so it's not specifically to accomodate a 321 rotation. A 320 was initially meant to be the a/c on the route for the entire summer but it's now changing to 321 as of 01 June til the end of October. Before the SNNLHR operation was always a 320 operation except for tech/operational reasons when it might change to a 321.

Back to SNN and sunshine routes: Don't get me wrong I think it'll be a shame for FR to pull off so many routes ex SNN. It's understandable though cos they are not generating any revenue. However, it would be great to see some competition in SNN and not have it all left to one particular airline. EI had it like that for too long themselves and now FR do. There needs to be a balance.
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