Aer Lingus - 5

[Just a spotter]

WRT the discussion as to whether the A350 is a worthwhile investment, keep in mind that the individual aircraft will, if EI are true to form, be in the fleet for roughly 15 years.

You can't base those types of long term investment decisions on current market conditions. As senior manager, you get the best information you can, listen to as many opinions as you can and finally you make a best guess.

I do agree that a smaller aircraft below the A320 is probably an option on a number of routes and that in the short to medium term, A319's are the most likely best investment given the commonality, which will provide 'leverage' of the existing investment in A320 family support and training.

If EI can get the right mix of pricing and service provision on their T/A routes then I think RE have a unique opportunity (in business parlance a Competitive Advantage) in selling inter-lining to the long haul network. Keep in mind that there are only limited number of airports in Britain that provide T/A routing and those outside of London have a limited route network.

JAS

[Noxegon]

I'd like to see EI innovate with its transatlantic service.

Specifically, I'd like to see a day time departure from JFK that gets into DUB around 22:30/23:00.

I'd use it...

[EI Premier]

You can't base those types of long term investment decisions on current market conditions. As senior manager, you get the best information you can, listen to as many opinions as you can and finally you make a best guess.

Indeed,

But that's not what transpired in relation to the A350 order. Instead, it was undertaken under the tenure of the ever expansionary Dermot Mannion who incessantly claimed that EI was ''moving forward''.

To have a uniform Long Haul fleet capacity of in excess of 300 Pax per aircraft in the longer term is adverse in the case of EI - it is not appropriate for additional frequencies on routes such as DUB-BOS, DUB-MCO or on such routes during seasonal periods of limited demand.

I'd like to see EI innovate with its transatlantic service.

Specifically, I'd like to see a day time departure from JFK that gets into DUB around 22:30/23:00.

I'd use it...

That's an excellent point. If the economy had not collapsed so dramatically, this may well have been developed by now. The only issue is that wouldn't an aircraft the size of the B757 be more suited to capacity for this route?

EI Premier

[Papa2Charlie]

Just a thought re the 100 seater discussion....

Yes I agree that an aircraft with that sort of seating capacity would be a nice to have but the costs are just prohibitive for Aer Lingus at this stage. I've seen an airline try to introduce new aircraft of the same type but with different engine type and honestly it just eats resource. If you now throw in a different airframe and crew training etc., it is a significant investment and I really don't believe EI can justify it.

The A319 is a good airplane also but I'd be interested to see how it compares to the A320 on a cash operating cost basis i.e. do the disposal costs of A320's justify the acquisition of A319's? Also, bear in mind the EZY A319's are effectively specials with the double overwing exits which allows them increase the pax numbers to 156 (18 less than an EIN A320) from a nominal 134 (40 less than an EIN A319). The sales figures for the A318 speaks for itself and on that basis, I don't believe you'll ever see it in the EI fleet.....unless they are being leased in at US$0/month.

With regard to the A350's, I think they should go for it but the A350-900 is too big, a better choice would be to exercise the options and switch to the A350-800. The seating capacity better matches the current A330 fleet and ultimately, the A330's will have to be replaced with something. I know the 350-800 isn't an optimal airplane (heavy for it's size) but there's limited scope out there for acquiring other A/C. The B787 is probably a better match to the requirements but you'd lose out on the cockpit commonality which has significant benefits in an airline the size of EIN.

All the best,

P2C.

[Noxegon]

That's an excellent point. If the economy had not collapsed so dramatically, this may well have been developed by now. The only issue is that wouldn't an aircraft the size of the B757 be more suited to capacity for this route?

I think it'd be a case of try it and see, but I know quite a few people who would happily pay a little more to avoid the purgatory of the transatlantic night.

[vkid]

Not good news you would think!

Aer Lingus posts €53.7m loss - The Irish Times - Thu, May 05, 2011

Aer Lingus warns Greenfield may not be enough - RT News

[840]

Industrial Action, Cork closed for 2 days because of the Manx2 crash, a late Easter. There are a number of special factors that will have hit the figures for that quarter.

The good news is the rise in yield per passenger.

The bad news is the current price of oil, which is unlikely to come down any time soon and which most analysts see increasing.

[airbourne]

I don't know the EI management team, but actually I'm inclined to give them the benefit of the doubt on this one.

I find it hard to give EI management any credit at all. For years this was a company that had government idiots running it. The mistakes this company made was just followed by money been poured into it.

Fast forward to the past 15ish years and the same mistakes are being made. Chop and change on aircraft, chop and change on policy. Seriously, you do not need half a brain to know that a heritage fat union controlled airline cannot compete with the true low cost carriers like Ryanair and EasyJet.

I can only presume that one of the biggest things about running an airline is foresight and planning ahead. EI thought the golden bubble would last forever, which we know it didnt. In a very Irish way, when we thought we thought we were too good to work in the service sector, EI thought they were too good to fly the smaller regional routes in the UK and Ireland. So it allowed RE and FR to fill all those gaps! So it got rid of the Fokkers and 146's.

Everything Ive seen EI do has been rushed, ill thought out and unpractical. Does anyone want to list off some of those 'great ideas'??

The 100 seater aircraft may not be a good idea to some, but when BMI had days of low loads on the LHR-DUB route they can easily change to an EMB-145. EI continue to fly a fat A320.

[vkid]

@840 While all those were factors, the very mention of Greenfield not being enough was where i thought the issue would be but didnt have time this morning to write a full post. Unions already asking questions. More cuts could possibly lead to more action and thats not good news.
IMPACT calls for more detail on Aer Lingus 'problems' | BreakingNews.ie

The other thing that stands out is the state of the Irish economy which accounts for a huge portion of EI's business. Can anyone see that improving hugely in that short term(or even medium term)?

[peba]

Delighted to see that EI have eventually voiced their concern over airport charges in Ireland. Hopefully now, they along with Ryanair, can force the Govt to address the issue and insure the ridiculous charges are reduced so we can finally see tourists again in this country. Both airlines agreed to consider expansion if certain areas were addressed, i.e. airport charges!! Now it's down to Dr. Varadkar to use his muscle in the Dail and do it quick before the usual winter cut backs come into affect.

[ryan2000]

Aerlingus and airport charges

I agree with Leo Varadkar that there is no point in reducing travel taxes so that John and Mary can fly to Lanzarote.

There has been far too much emphasis on bucket and spade routes in recent years. A case in point is Cork where there is excess capacity to the Canaries, Spain and Portugal and very little access routes for inbound tourists or even outbound City Breakers.

The airports should reward airlines who make a genuine effort to bring tourists in to Ireland and charge premium rates to those whose only agenda is to drive the competition out.

[Jack1985]

I see Aer Lingus have fully released their Gatwick schedule;

CAPCITY INCREASES:

• Dublin increases to Six daily | Previously reduced from 5 daily during Summer (5 Daily Current - Summer 2011) down to 4 daily during Winter 2010/2011.

• Knock-Irl West increases to once daily | Previously reduced to Four Weekly flights during Winter 2010/2011.

CAPCITY DECREASES:

• Malaga reduced down to once daily | Previously operate Twice daily in Winter 2010/2011

• Shannon reduced to Four Weekly Flights | Operating as daily this Summer.

UNCHANGED:

• Cork remains as once daily | Operated by ORK based A/C on M-W-F-S , and by LGW based A/C on -T-T-S-.

Overall i Think its a good schedule, given that LGW base is reduced to 2 A/C from 3 A/C (Summer) since Winter 2010/2011.

[ayroplain]

charge premium rates to those whose only agenda is to drive the competition out.

Yes, I agree, like the way EI behaved when FR first tried to break the EI/BA monopoly all those years ago.

Addressing the media following the airline's AGM in Dublin, Christoph Mueller said that in Ireland's darkest hour, when we urgently need tourists to visit, to increase airport taxes by 39% is 'insane'.

I'm afraid EI has nobody else to blame but themselves. Before Mr. Mueller's time, when the DAA decided to go completely overboard with their vision of the new T2 all it needed was for the two main airlines FR/EI to say to them categorically, "If you build that we will NOT come". FR made their intentions abundantly clear but EI showed the usual lack of foresight, strength and business acumen. Did they seriously believe that the DAA's planned T2 would not involve hefty increased charges. Now everyone is being forced to pay the price for this enormous debt.

I had high hopes that Mr. Varadkar would get stuck in and be everything his grossly incompetent (to be kind) predecessors over a great many years were not but, already, I have my doubts. DUB and IRL in general needs more passenger numbers/tourists but I'm not convinced that at the present time any significant increases at DUB can be generated and, in any case, EI is just too small to have any significant effect and does not have the aircraft (or fares) to expand. If it can be done the only airline that could make any significant difference is FR but it looks like the usual thought processes - we can't give anything to FR without giving the same to EI - are still around. These are desperate times and we can't afford to apply such niceties.

[airbourne]

So its the airport charges that are keeping tourists away from Ireland???

Nothing at all to do with the charges the airlines pass on to customers, like baggage, check in fees, fees for this or that, 1.50 for a fun size can of coke. As much as i would be a fan of Aer Lingus, they along with Ryanair, Easyjet and the rest have screwed the passenger and now they cry foul because of airport charges!!! Cut down your own secret fees and maybe the public will return!

[ayroplain]

So its the airport charges that are keeping tourists away from Ireland???

No, not directly but it's a fact of life that increasing the charges acts as a disincentive to airlines and especially so in DUB's case as they have been unnecessarily brought about by the stupidity and arrogance of those who run it.

I don't know what you mean by "secret" fees. All the charges are plainly visible when you book. In FR's case even with all the extras you hint at the fares are still dirt cheap as many of the charges are avoidable. I still can't understand why passengers can't do without buying food and drink on a short haul flight. In a normal working day they go without them for hours but put them on a plane and they're scrambling to purchase so, if the airlines are screwing them for food and drink, good luck to them.

[FR-]

I still can't understand why passengers can't do without buying food and drink on a short haul flight. In a normal working day they go without them for hours but put them on a plane and they're scrambling to purchase so, if the airlines are screwing them for food and drink, good luck to them.

Have you been on a Ryanair flight, sales, sales, sales, you will buy them on board sales of food, drinks, gifts, lotto cards, phone cards, has a turn over of 90million plus euros a year.

fr-

[ayroplain]

Have you been on a Ryanair flight

Yes, hundreds and hundreds of them and never once bought anything on board

€90m? Nice one, Mick. There's one born every minute.

[FR-]

90m? maybe you should take time to ask the crews what the average spend is per pax

[racedo]

Nothing at all to do with the charges the airlines pass on to customers, like baggage, check in fees, fees for this or that, 1.50 for a fun size can of coke. As much as i would be a fan of Aer Lingus, they along with Ryanair, Easyjet and the rest have screwed the passenger and now they cry foul because of airport charges!!! Cut down your own secret fees and maybe the public will return!

I have travelled across to Ireland couple of times a year for last 25 plus years and the view that its extra charges on airlines stopping people travel is laughable.

The £150 minimum fare for a 2 day stay not including a Saturday night was the norm in those days, whoopee a free cup of tea and some crap food makes it sooooooo much better NOT.

It was the norm to meet people who had never been on a plane which is something I rarely come across now.

T2 is a disaster in terms of spending money which should never have been built because economically there is no pay back. EI should have had the balls to refuse to use it but they were still stuck in the "We are better than Ryanair mentality and deserve better".

People not travelling because of a worldwide recession and that will continue for another year or two.

Irelands costs have come down but it still is expensive to spend a couple of days there.

[840]

I think you have to look at this slightly differently

In general, if a direct flight isn't available, the average tourist won't come.

In the case of Dublin, that's reducing long-haul tourists in particular.

In the case of Cork and Shannon airports, it's reducing European tourists.

In the case of the smaller airports, it's reducing tourists from the UK.

And that's where a change in charges can come in.

With the margins that airlines operate on, even a saving of E3 per passenger can seriously affect the viability of a route. They can still obtain the same yield from the passengers, so effectively, it's like starting a flight with an extra E200-E600 to cover costs. You'd be surprised how many extra routes become viable from that.

And with the extra routes come extra tourists.

Now, I've written before on other threads about how Ireland seriously needs to update its tourism offering.

In particular, we're stuck in the 1980s where tourists got bussed around the country or brought/hired a car. With the rise in independent tourism over the last 10+ years, the coaching option has become almost obsolete.

But you want to travel round by public transport?

Look at the tourist areas...

Schull to Killarney - Please take a massive detour via Cork
Cllifden to Westport - Galway looks forward to welcoming you

With a reduction in travel tax and airport costs, and without a more comprehensive review of tourist needs, there's likely to be an increase in short-stays in Dublin and to a lesser extent Cork, Limerick and maybe Galway.

And that's about it.

Of course, that's completely outside the realms of an aviation thread, but yet without it, where do the airlines get their passengers.