BELFAST (BHD) - 3

[EI-BUD]

Code:

 
would this not be the time for LS to operate BFS/LTN, say three flights per day, first one out at 06.45 say and one in at 22.30. Giving a full working day in London (the longest avail). Does LS not have a few idle 737's sitting around. Judging by the 'low' figures LS get on LBA with 2 returns per day, he could give it a go in time for the Christmas rush.

With a very well established link between BFS & LTN, there certainly would be an opportunity for another airline to move in and pick up where Easyjet left off and Jet2 would be in a position to do that however, the last time that Jet2 got frisky and started joining Easyjet on routes ex BFS eg Ibiza,Venice and a few others Easyjet then went and joined Jet2 on some their routes eg Barcelona, which Easyjet had not done from here.
So cant see Jet2 entering the London Belfast market.

It would not surprise me one bit if Ryanair launch a new Belfast Luton route, and possibly from BFS, BFS may want to ensure that EZY have a bad experience on the new LTN BHD route and Ryanair may be the vehicle to ensure that. The figures from CAA from March on will tell alot in terms of the overall size of the BFS London market and what shifts occur, i cant see BHD LTN doing more than 10k pax per month for Easyjet and the Ryanair STN figures will be one to watch to see what changes occur.

Will EI see growth ex BFS with the LTN route moved (usually about 20k per month) and will Easyjet see growth in numbers on the STN and LGW routes.

EI-BUD

[MUFC_fan]

LS's scheduled airport of choice is LGW and U2 have that corner well and truly covered.

STN would be second choice due to their base there but I would doubt an LON route from BFS - they have tried the market twice and failed on both occasions.

[gate 22]

It would not surprise me one bit if Ryanair launch a new Belfast Luton route, and possibly from BFS, BFS may want to ensure that EZY have a bad experience on the new LTN BHD route and Ryanair may be the vehicle to ensure that.

I don't think FR would be pemitted by BHD to double up on BHD/LTN also cap levels etc. BFS should wait and see what the outcome of the runway extension is before even talking to FR, sit back and relax.
I think that BHD have been naive to announce the arrival of EZY to their facility during this application. The planners will take this on board, and it gives fuel to those who are objecting.

I would doubt an LON route from BFS - they have tried the market twice and failed on both occasions

When was this?
I still think that LS on a London route would be worth a try.

[MUFC_fan]

Man/ncl-lgw.

[tigger2k8]

Surely this is BFS's problem, if EZY want to go they won't care how much Abertis have spent on facilities.

think you missed my point, without EZY's passengers there would litrally be up to 1000 job losses from ground staff, operations, airplane cleaners, catering, engineers (SR Tech) shop staff and ofcourse EZY staff... this would be enough to cripple BFS and would render the £10m investment useless, unless someone stepped in straight away...

what i was saying, was now that EZY have fired a warning shot, Abertis might realise the above and hopefully suck up to them to keep them at BFS... hopefully Abertis has learned from its past mistake with an airline which did pack up its bags and move to BHD..

[gate 22]

Man/ncl-lgw.

Most players in NI operate London, now is the time for LS

[BFS101]

Thomas Cook severly reducing capacity for summer 2010.

Summer 2008 was 2 based A320's and 1 peak season bmi A321. This summer was 1 based A320 and the bmi peak. For 2010 we are also loosing the peak based bmi.

This results is complete loose of Corfu and Fuerteventura that were served June / July only. Capacity cuts to Reus, Las Palmas (down by X2 week, now only served by tui season long on Wednesdays, not served at all by Thomas Cook Group for summer), Ibiza, Lanzarote, Palma, Tenerife (no peak Tuesday and loosing peak Friday) and Dalaman.

Sanford is also down to 1, yes 1, TCX departure for the entire season.

While overall number may not be horrendously different, with holidaymakers switching to the loco's, the tour operators here seem to be taking a hammering. Loosing destinations with the tour operators, to the benefit of loco capacity increases to Malaga, Faro, Tenerife and Lanzarote, Great!!! At least Jet2 offer something a little different with Toulouse, Pisa and Dubrovnik...

[speedrestriction]

Most players in NI operate London, now is the time for LS

Gate 22,

Where is the logic in this? Because everyone else is doing it is in fact probably a good reason not to do it. Belfast to London is a decent sized market but there is more than enough capacity on it. Five minutes looking at fares for flights to London for next Wednesday gave me this, completely non scientific, I chose first cheap fare of the day. Obviously there are things to select/de-select all I was basically looking for was fare and taxes. Final figures by the time some companies take their hidden card handling fees will be higher.

Flybe £84.99
BMI £91.00
Aerlingus £81.98
Easyjet to LTN/LGW £63.99
Ryanair £77.37

I'm not trying to establish who is cheaper but my point is these are not full aircraft. There is still plenty of capacity on the route without another competitor entering a mature market with another 300 daily seats each way. Furthermore Jet2 would have to spend a significant sum to generate any profile for the route. When people think Jet2 they think maybe North of England, sunshine and ski. I cannot see any positive aspect of any more companies trying to fly a London route.

sr

[danielmellor]

Could Jet2 Maybe Switch There Bfs-Leeds Route to Manchester??

or even Doncaster??

[MUFC_fan]

Why? They have a monopoly on that route with only twice daily BE flight from BHD to compete with.

Got to MAN and you have direct competition from WW and six BE flights from BE, one being an Embraer flight which further increases capacity.

Jet2 have proved over the last couple of years that if a route doesn't work, it goes and I am sure that there current routes are doing fine so why tamper?

[david1994]

For 2010 we are also loosing the peak based bmi.

BMI will be going to Corfu , Dalaman and also Paphos again.

Sanford is also down to 1, yes 1, TCX departure for the entire season.

Such a pitty TCX have put it down to 1 departure , on the 24th June for 14 nights , and by looking at the FLY GLOBESPAN website they have cut some flights as well ....

Air Europa will be doing a PMI on behalf of Thomson

Thomas Cook have took away GERONA and put on a RHODES route. Departing the same time as the GERONA used to ..... a good decision Rhodes bound to be more popular with young people.

Thomas Cook also have increased capacity for DLM in JUNE / JULY with departures on a MONDAY , THURSDAY , FRIDAY

Thomson have dropped NAP and replaced it by a morning REU on a FRIDAY and then TFS on the afternoon as usual. Also putting on a late night PMI flight on a SATURDAY night again bound to be popular with young people.

[johnnychips]

DSA-BFS

FlyBE already on route DSA-BHD so no point in Jet2 trying to compete with their bigger jet on a route which stuggles to fill a prop plane.

[BFS101]

BMI will be going to Corfu , Dalaman and also Paphos again.

Are Olympic Holidays taking the full allocation of seats on the bmi flights then to CFU and PFO, or with another operator?? Monday CFU, Wednesday PFO and Thursday DLM (Holidays 4U) have flights times UK - desination - UK suggesting based aircraft??

Jet2 have proved over the last couple of years that if a route doesn't work, it goes and I am sure that there current routes are doing fine so why tamper?

Exactly, and three flights a day on Fridays for winter timetable so obviously pleased with demand, two flights on the other days with exception of Saturday that's daily.

[Cahlibahn]

Could someone clarify for me how CAA stats work? I was pondering the effect of easyJet switching their Luton service to City and had a look at the CAA passenger stats for July.
UK Airport Statistics: 2009 - 07 | Data | Economic Regulation
No statistics for BFS - LTN were published but apparently 24911 people travelled LTN - BFS. Assume that easyJet operated all 90 scheduled flights for July we get a total capacity of 13410.

Does the CAA figure mean total pax in both directions? If so, that gives us a load factor of 92.8%. Going from 90 flights each way in July to 2 flights daily from January reduces capacity by something like 8300 seats per month (Obviously I'm aware that January load factors are going to be considerably lower than those for July).

I'm clearly 'statistically challenged' so any guidance gratefully accepted!

[anna_list]

Hi,

>Does the CAA figure mean total pax in both directions?
Yes

>Assume that easyJet operated all 90 scheduled flights for July
The actual figure was 219 flights (I reckon), all B737s.

>for July we get a total capacity of 13410
32,361 using the above stats.

>If so, that gives us a load factor of 92.8%
76.3% using the above stats.

The capacity reduction in January will be about 18,000 seats per month (total in both directions).

Hope this helps a bit.

[Cahlibahn]

Thank you, that clarifies things nicely.

[danielmellor]

Any More Information On The Route to Belfast. If so what airline?
Aer Arann? Read That They wanted back into shannon
flybe? Theyve already Tried Galway
Jet2? Theyve done cork already
Aer Lingus? They could come back
Ryanair? Theyve hinted before about it

[david1994]

Hi guys !! Just found that BMI will be flying to these places in Summer 2010 !

CORFU , REUS , FUERTEVENTURA , LAS PALMAS , IBIZA , LANZAROTE , PALMA , TENERIFE and DALAMAN.

looks like we might be getting a based A321 again ??

Corfu departs on a Monday from 21 Jun - 19 Jul

Reus departs on a Tuesday from 22 Jun - 28 Jul
Sunday from 27 Jun - 18 Jul

Fuerteventura departs on a Saturday from 26 Jun - 27 Jul

Las Palmas departs on a Monday from 28 Jun - 19 Jul
Saturday from 26 Jun - 31 Jul

Ibiza departs on a Sunday 27 Jun - 18 Jul

Lanzarote departs on a Thurday 24 Jun - 29 Jul

Palma departs on a Saturday from 26 Jun - 17 Jul

Tenerife departs on a Tuesday from 22 Jun - 20 Jul
Friday from 25 Jun - 16 Jul

Dalaman departs on a Friday from 25 Jun - 16 Jul

All from THOMAS COOK SUMMER SUN 2010 brochure

[EI-BUD]

Jet2? Theyve done cork already
Aer Lingus? They could come back
Ryanair? Theyve hinted before about it

Hi Danielmellor

Do you mean Belfast Cork? Jet2 listed this flight and it was to be a scheduled service but they pulled the schedule before it was set to be launched. Hence it never operated.

Aer Lingus most unlikely to do BFS SNN

EI-BUD

[tigger2k8]

was there a problem with the TNT tonight that meant it didnt reach BFS? Icelandair cargo 757-200FR and a 737 cargo flight appeared with TNT ULDs sitting beside the 757