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Old 14th Oct 2009, 00:44
  #5781 (permalink)  
 
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Ya, maybe the 35 million refers to the number of individuals.
For example in a typical year I account for 20 Ryanair passengers.
As mentioned, someone on a return trip accounts for 2 passengers.
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Old 14th Oct 2009, 01:27
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I know that EZY use the airport for longer range flights aswell, but if FR were to name the airport Belfast-Derry, which they probably would, then two a/c and flights to LGW, STN, LTN, LPL, PIK, EMA, BRS, NCL etc would be all viable and also would free a/c up at STN, EMA and LPL for other services, alot like the airline do at Cork.
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Old 14th Oct 2009, 07:58
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if FR were to name the airport Belfast-Derry, which they probably would, then two a/c and flights to LGW, STN, LTN, LPL, PIK, EMA, BRS, NCL etc would be all viable
I would doubt if Prestwick would stand a chance via Derry-for-Belfast when the coach & ferry service from Glasgow to Belfast takes 6 hours 15 mins city-to-city for £38.50 return!

50 mins to get to Prestwick
2 hours at airport
30 mins block time
30 mins to clear airport
2 hours on coach to Belfast

5 hours 50 mins or so. Plus associated air-travel hassle.

Given also the chap that posted up-thread about being a good traveller who arrived hours prior to departure, one wonders what the benefit of air travel is these days!
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Old 14th Oct 2009, 10:13
  #5784 (permalink)  
 
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El bunto,

I agree with your argument, but why 2 hours at an airport? With on-line check-in and hand luggage only, I usually allow 40 mins from car parking to boarding. I cut it too fine once at 20 minutes (at LPL) and although I made the flight, it was a bit stressful. I think that 1 hour is more than ample at most airports if you are a regular traveller, perhaps a bit more if unfamiliar with the airport, but 2 hours is excessive.
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Old 14th Oct 2009, 12:38
  #5785 (permalink)  
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Torygraph: Ryanair 'exposé' backfires on Panorama

The travelling public have come out overwhelming in Ryanair's favour after last night's BBC show

..........There was more than a snide grin on the face of whichever of the airline's PR wrote this statement in this morning's press release: "Panorama claimed that 'O’Leary is a bully' – this is clearly false when the whole world knows that O’Leary is a kind and gentle, caring and thoughtful, sensitive and saintly human being widely beloved by all Ryanair’s 6,500 people and its 66m passengers.".........
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Old 14th Oct 2009, 13:53
  #5786 (permalink)  
 
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"Ryanair’s 6,500 people"

That many! The genius of a CEO that makes it look like its a one man show.
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Old 14th Oct 2009, 18:58
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Ryanair's Big Order...Boeing V Airbus V ?

MOL told Reuters,
if for some reason we can't conclude an agreement with Boeing and Airbus, certainly by the end of the year, we will simply announce we are not going to buy any more aircraft
.

He added
we will then stop growing beyond 2012 when our current delivery stream runs out.
The carrier stated it wants to conclude an order for 200 aircraft from either Boeing or Airbus by the end of 2009, for delivery after 2012.

Now its tough to read too much into one statement without context. But on the other hand we are able to see this latest comment in the context of this being a well known subject with many previous comments. Consequently, what can one deduce from the latest one?

It seems that MOL is not getting the deal he wants. There is no doubt that Airbus wants a Ryanair order. There is no doubt that Boeing wants to keep the customer. So the suppliers will play ball. But not at any price. And MOL is a bottom feeder - he will pressurize both vendors for essentially a sale at cost. Neither of them are that desperate in terms of narrow bodies, though each 787 cancellation adds pressure for another 3 narrows to hold order book value...not that OBV means anything, right?

Further, we know that MOL needs more planes to grow. Italy beckons and that in turn opens up the entire Med market. From Cyprus to Spain. Eastern Europe also offers rich pickings. Opportunities exist for Ryanair to grow nicely and the current target of 67m passengers can easily be built upon. Tripled easily within 5 years, we reckon...given adequate commitment from airframe manufacturers. Does Boeing want them, or does Boeing not. THIS is the question.

Therefore it would seem to us, that with Ryanair's commitment to the 737, the airline has breached the tipping point. And Boeing knows this. The last deal they did with Ryanair was made during desperate times. It is one they will not repeat. Ryanair cannot maintain its low costs if they switch to the A320, or run a mixed fleet. That means advantage Boeing and MOL is now coming to realize this. But he is no fool, and will play out his hand. The threat to stop growing hurts nobody but the airline itself. So discount those words.

The rate at which the airline will take deliveries tends to ensure that only Airbus and Boeing could act as a supplier. But that said, if MOL can accept the risk of slightly higher MRO costs and a tad more complexity in terms of fleet, he could turn the market upside down by ordering from Embraer (would roll over and give him the terms he wants) or Bombardier (ditto for CS-300). The increased costs would be offset, in our view, by having more flexibility in gauge for entering and building new markets. Stand by for a shocking Autumn announcement.

Whiplash Out.
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Old 14th Oct 2009, 19:24
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As long as it's not TU204's I'm happy. In all seriousness though, what are the chances Boeing, Airbus and Embraer have all agreed not to prostitute their products? You know, a little bit of price fixing! No honour amongst thieves though. My money is on Boeing. You said Italy as the big Market, how about Russia?
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Old 14th Oct 2009, 20:06
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in my last - the problem with Russia is that it's not part of the EU, and (broadly speaking) doesn't have any kind of agreement to permit non-Russian airlines to fly anything other than bilaterals. This means that Ryanair could fly between Ireland and Russia, but would have difficulty getting Govt permission flying any other kind of route involving Russia. Putin isn't about to let MOL make significant amounts of money at the expense of his compatriots
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Old 14th Oct 2009, 20:12
  #5790 (permalink)  
 
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FR can sweat their fleet relatively easily and not spend any cash on new planes at the end of their current order book.

Given the average age of their fleet is 3 years V Southwest 14 years then Ryanair can take a decision when their current orders are fulfilled to stop buying for 7 years and still be under the Southwest age.

Its easy for people to assume Airbus / Boeing would just ignore this BUT I reckon the replacements of the current management may see it differently.
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Old 14th Oct 2009, 21:14
  #5791 (permalink)  
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Maybe here is Ryanair's Q to go and get a smaller type what about a C Series for Post 2012 deliveries??? Then redistribute the 738s to the highest density routes.

Or even looking at 195?

Boeing might respond with the deal they want. Airbus have been down the road before and in order to make a Ryanair order a reality it would need to be way way more discounted than anything that Boeing could do given the current fleet make up.... In any case highly unlikely MOL would agree to a mixed fleet anyway...?

EI-BUD
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Old 14th Oct 2009, 21:35
  #5792 (permalink)  
 
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ASFKAP

Yes it would - have you decided to 'experience' the
airline before you pass judgement then?

MM
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Old 14th Oct 2009, 22:48
  #5793 (permalink)  
 
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Remember it is all comparative. Once person may be 20 Ryanair passengers but another maybe 20 BA passengers.
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Old 14th Oct 2009, 22:52
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An interesting programme....

The interviewer came across as a bumbling idiot, Mikey-the-Pikey as an unpleasant (to put it mildly) arrogant little so-and-so who treats the public as idiots. Which, it seems, they are.

Why some kid should think it reasonable to swan around Europe for tuppence a flight is beyond me.....

Still, at least that keeps them away from proper airlines and airports, I suppose.
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Old 14th Oct 2009, 23:05
  #5795 (permalink)  
 
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Why does the 16 year old kid from Leeds need to care whether swanning around Europe for tuppence a trip is reasonable ? He presumably doesn't have much of an income himself but can see those days out for almost free and has decided he wants a part of that - ambition and an eye for a bargain are traits to be ecnouraged !
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Old 14th Oct 2009, 23:12
  #5796 (permalink)  
 
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BEagle - what an incredibly patronising post. Oiks being permitted to experience other countries and cultures...I bet they don't even know which way the port is passed...see you in the country club/at the polo match/in the next government
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Old 15th Oct 2009, 09:04
  #5797 (permalink)  
 
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Why does the 16 year old kid from Leeds need to care whether swanning around Europe for tuppence a trip is reasonable ?
That just about sums up the greed of the current era....

The Panorama programme was very weak - but having seen it, would anyone really choose to fly with that airline?

Of course the typical Ryanair passenger probably doesn't watch Panorama.
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Old 15th Oct 2009, 09:35
  #5798 (permalink)  
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the typical Ryanair passenger probably doesn't watch Panorama
Oh, smart people do not watch Panorama any more? Is it so bad nowadays?
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Old 15th Oct 2009, 09:57
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Filling your aeroplane up with 16 year olds who are flying for 2p (+tax) for a quick there and back won't make your accountants or shareholders happy.

Not sure what FR's break even yield are, but their 1p fares are just cheap marketing. It's a false economy.

FR's primary success has been based re-selling Boeing aeroplanes. We now know that avenue has been closed to them, Boeing got wise and Airbus aren't ready to be mugged just yet. Their second success was based on traffic growth and hub expansion. The current climate has stalled their business model.

Worse still, the lo-co market is showing signs of saturation (look at Gatwick). There aren't many places left FR can open new bases and there aren't many places where they don't fly to already. He could keep costs low by 're-deploying' bases but that costs money too and takes time. One of MOL's options is to go acquisitive with an existing lo-co airline and I agree with his synopsys that Aer Lingus is currently a basket case.

Don't believe me? Look at the share performance for all publicly quoted carriers, in the last 6 months FR has been static whereas all the rest (lo-co and legacy) have risen significantly. So his investors know that the game is definitely changing.

DM.

PS: I thought the Panorama programme was very weak, there is so much more they could have highlighted.
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Old 15th Oct 2009, 10:09
  #5800 (permalink)  
 
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FR's primary success has been based re-selling Boeing aeroplanes. We now know that avenue has been closed to them, Boeing got wise and Airbus are ready not to be mugged. Their second success was based on traffic growth and hub expansion. The current climate has stalled their business model.
Is this the business model that added 18% more passengers in the last quarter ?

Selling on aircraft is a nice earner but its primary success is moving people.

Worse still, the Lo-Co market is even showing signs of saturation. There aren't many places left FR can open new bases and there aren't many places where they don't fly to already. One of MOL's new options is to go acquisitive with an existing Lo-Co airline and I agree with his synopsys that Aer Lingus is currently a basket case.
Italy has 60 Million domestic passenger journeys per year and Ryanair is only really starting to expand there over last 12 months.

In France it has pretty much left domestic travel alone because of the AF supporting policies but as shown on its MRS - Lille services it is getting the yields and will continue to open up opportunities.

Low Cost market is in Maturity in some countries but only scrating the surface in others and has probably 6-7 years before reaching that stage across Europe as a whole.
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