Ryanair - 6
Join Date: Apr 2008
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EI-BUD, I think it will be hard to convince you ;-)
There is actually a very easy way to noticed if a Ryanair base/route is performing well, or not, this is by checking if the route is in the sales offer (or not), or check the ratio of route in the offer / route not in the offer for each base.
They currently run a very aggresive sales, 5, 10 or 15€ one way all inclusive for May (!!!) and June. You imagine, a sales for May!!!
Usually, they run a promo 1 month or 2 months before the start of the month, never for the current month! It's honestly the first time I see that, and on that scale.
A promo on the current month is just an insult to the yield mangement, and a big loose of last minute revenue. What is even more suprising is that the promo is very widely available across the network!!!
Considering the current promo, I am absolutely certain their LF should be in a very very bad shape again for May, so the sales will probably generate volume but also very low yield. If LF for May is again below last year whereas they have such aggresive promo, that would be a very very bad sign!
Considering the bases performances, it's easy to see which one ae good bases. Around 50% only of the routes of CIA or CRL for example are in the offer. Now consider the new bases:
- BRE: 95% of the routes are in the offer!!!!!
- BHX: 95% of the routes are in the offer!!!
- BOH: 90% of the routes are in the offer
- VLC: 90% of the routes in theoffer
- MAD: 90% in the offer
- and the best for the end: BHD: 100% of the routes in the offer!!!!
So, yes I persist to say that BRE, BHD, BOD, VLC etc are real nightmares! And when they say in financial report 07 that their new bases were performing well, this is just a BIG BULL****!
If we take March and April, so easter effect nil, EZY LF is +0.4p, when Ryanair one is -3p!
That's quiet a considerable gap.
EI-BUD, what do you think about my main argument that's Ryanair management is inable to deal with current situation. Some examples:
- fuel 100% not hedged (are they rally 100% not hedged???)
- very bad new bases
- not very clever top managers that doesn't know basic mathematics. 3 examples: only for Ryanair, the difference between 83% and 79% is 4% and not 4p. I also still remember their statement fully available on their website, where they wrote that an increase of 50% of the parking charges, and 1 year later another increase of 50% represents an increase of 100%
Finally, I still remember their Head of air ticket revenue explaining us that PIKBOH were a business route so will have a second daily freq. PIKBOH a busines route 
If I quickly look at the fares for the last week of May, absolutely all the tickets are of 10£ RETURN TAXES INCLUSIVES!!!
What a good busines route!!!
Ryanair forces are negociations (with Boeing especially), low cost (mainly driven by the use of the internet and of the lowER employee cost ie. very low crew salaries) and situation of monopoly on many routes (which generate lots of subsidies). Nothing clever in it...
The problem is also as their P&L has been so strong, their consider their selves as very clever and became arrogant. They must change something, or their will probably suffer over the next years.
They are chasing the volume on May as they will release their financial report next month and don't want to present toO bad LF to shareholders. I think their 2008 results will be not as bad as some could expect, but 2009 will be very very difficult, and I have many arguments for telling that ;-)
There is actually a very easy way to noticed if a Ryanair base/route is performing well, or not, this is by checking if the route is in the sales offer (or not), or check the ratio of route in the offer / route not in the offer for each base.
They currently run a very aggresive sales, 5, 10 or 15€ one way all inclusive for May (!!!) and June. You imagine, a sales for May!!!
Usually, they run a promo 1 month or 2 months before the start of the month, never for the current month! It's honestly the first time I see that, and on that scale.
A promo on the current month is just an insult to the yield mangement, and a big loose of last minute revenue. What is even more suprising is that the promo is very widely available across the network!!!
Considering the current promo, I am absolutely certain their LF should be in a very very bad shape again for May, so the sales will probably generate volume but also very low yield. If LF for May is again below last year whereas they have such aggresive promo, that would be a very very bad sign!
Considering the bases performances, it's easy to see which one ae good bases. Around 50% only of the routes of CIA or CRL for example are in the offer. Now consider the new bases:
- BRE: 95% of the routes are in the offer!!!!!
- BHX: 95% of the routes are in the offer!!!
- BOH: 90% of the routes are in the offer
- VLC: 90% of the routes in theoffer
- MAD: 90% in the offer
- and the best for the end: BHD: 100% of the routes in the offer!!!!
So, yes I persist to say that BRE, BHD, BOD, VLC etc are real nightmares! And when they say in financial report 07 that their new bases were performing well, this is just a BIG BULL****!
If we take March and April, so easter effect nil, EZY LF is +0.4p, when Ryanair one is -3p!
That's quiet a considerable gap.
EI-BUD, what do you think about my main argument that's Ryanair management is inable to deal with current situation. Some examples:
- fuel 100% not hedged (are they rally 100% not hedged???)
- very bad new bases
- not very clever top managers that doesn't know basic mathematics. 3 examples: only for Ryanair, the difference between 83% and 79% is 4% and not 4p. I also still remember their statement fully available on their website, where they wrote that an increase of 50% of the parking charges, and 1 year later another increase of 50% represents an increase of 100%
Finally, I still remember their Head of air ticket revenue explaining us that PIKBOH were a business route so will have a second daily freq. PIKBOH a busines route If I quickly look at the fares for the last week of May, absolutely all the tickets are of 10£ RETURN TAXES INCLUSIVES!!!
What a good busines route!!!
Ryanair forces are negociations (with Boeing especially), low cost (mainly driven by the use of the internet and of the lowER employee cost ie. very low crew salaries) and situation of monopoly on many routes (which generate lots of subsidies). Nothing clever in it...
The problem is also as their P&L has been so strong, their consider their selves as very clever and became arrogant. They must change something, or their will probably suffer over the next years.
They are chasing the volume on May as they will release their financial report next month and don't want to present toO bad LF to shareholders. I think their 2008 results will be not as bad as some could expect, but 2009 will be very very difficult, and I have many arguments for telling that ;-)
Join Date: Apr 2004
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h&s - calm yourself man!
h&s - has Ryanair upset you or something?!
PIKBOH air fares can be as high as GBP300 one way last minute i.e next day travel. They are making good money on that route.
Anyway please cut Bournemouth (BOH) some slack - the base has only been operating for a month! BOH-GRO took a few months before it became one of the strongest routes on the entire FR network.
PIKBOH air fares can be as high as GBP300 one way last minute i.e next day travel. They are making good money on that route.
Anyway please cut Bournemouth (BOH) some slack - the base has only been operating for a month! BOH-GRO took a few months before it became one of the strongest routes on the entire FR network.
Last edited by loveJet; 8th May 2008 at 05:22.
Join Date: Feb 2005
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calm yourself?
has Ryanair upset you or something?!
Join Date: Aug 2007
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0523 cov man
Ryanair cvt - dub route, it's supposed to be a secret but as you seem to already know..........
Ryan has also agreed to pull out of BHX, open a huge base at Coventry and fly 200 routes from there.
They will also pay for the runway to be doubled in length and for two new terminals, finance the diversion of the Western Mainline Rail Route through CVT, pay for the M1 & M40 Motorways to be diverted via the airport and give every CVT worker a new BMW car.
That's Phase 1, in Phase 2 they will...... oh sorry, can't tell you that it's confidential.
Ryanair cvt - dub route, it's supposed to be a secret but as you seem to already know..........
Ryan has also agreed to pull out of BHX, open a huge base at Coventry and fly 200 routes from there.
They will also pay for the runway to be doubled in length and for two new terminals, finance the diversion of the Western Mainline Rail Route through CVT, pay for the M1 & M40 Motorways to be diverted via the airport and give every CVT worker a new BMW car.
That's Phase 1, in Phase 2 they will...... oh sorry, can't tell you that it's confidential.
Join Date: Aug 2007
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0523 cov man
Joking aside, you seem to be the only one who's heard of a possible CVT-DUB route and as you've previously raised the same possibility on the CVT thread it would be a step forward if you could give a little information as to why you think it's a possibility?
Love the mixed metaphor by the way.
Joking aside, you seem to be the only one who's heard of a possible CVT-DUB route and as you've previously raised the same possibility on the CVT thread it would be a step forward if you could give a little information as to why you think it's a possibility?
Love the mixed metaphor by the way.
Join Date: Aug 2007
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i also heard the rumour about cvt and dublin. i've been told that cvt and dublin is an idle threat towards bhx, i dont know why they've done this. i cant see fr ever coming back to cvt. i s'pose cvt will have to wait about the new terminal, to see if any other airlines will turn up at cvt.
Join Date: Mar 2008
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Birmingham
I agree i think Ryanair will be at Birmingham for a long time and by the sounds of it more routes to be announced soon
and
http://www.bhx.co.uk/page.aspx?type=...e=ZaDx7K8KcVk=
Ryanair has already announced from Birmingham this year, with even more to come for the winter.
But watch this space as there are even more to come.
Quote from today's (London) Times:
"My trip to an obscure part of Italy and back, booked three months in advance cost 99.45euro (£78.20). Hardly budget"
Either he's a youngster or he's got a very short memory...
"My trip to an obscure part of Italy and back, booked three months in advance cost 99.45euro (£78.20). Hardly budget"
Either he's a youngster or he's got a very short memory...
Join Date: Mar 2006
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And about "Madrid" Don Quijote Airport now ended where ryanair planned to move operations !
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