Ryanair - 6

[The Real Slim Shady]

Because if the RPL is filed for 2245 the flight will be delayed until 2315!

[RAT 5]

Concerning the 'charges' which all airlines apply. Guess where it started. RYR! The competition looked at the market reaction, which was very tolerant, and followed in the wake. Once one operator gets away with something like this, thay all follow. Where will it end is more the question? Rememer it started with only a wheelchair levy; then baggage charge (since increased drastically); then checkin charges; then credit card charges;

MOL has declared that he will increase charges until 50% of pax checkin online with cabin baggage only. This is imparactical if travelling for more than a couple of days, or on a sports holiday. I was onboard recently where 20 or so cabin wheelie bags had to be loaded in the hold due lack of space, so delaying departure. And that pax had that done for free. There is no way 189 pax can load 189 legal cabin sized wheelie bags into the cabin. The ensuing chaos will mean a long delay; and missing a slot could be severe.

Regarding the comment that the airport is responsible for pax until at the a/c; if so then why is RYR charging a wheel chair levy? This is one of he most insidious stealth charges of their whole scam, and serious source of profit.

Also, I'm still trying to find out what their fixed insurance premium is for. What is being insured? I cannot get an answer from RYR. Does anyone know?

[daz211]

So yet again the talk yesterday around STN is that Ryanair is very
near to securing five 777's, the word in the terminal is that
AGP, STN and DUB will be offering flights to the USA buy winter 08.

How true could this realy be ???
and if true why AGP ???

[MUFC_fan]

PMI, AGP and ALC plus FAO are becoming popular with the North Americans abit like Orlando is with us Brits and CO and DL are starting to realise.

The US consider Mexico and the Carribean their Spain and Portugal where as we see them as our long haul destinations. I wouldn't be surprised in a couple of years time if our Spains became their Carribeans. If ya get my drift! ;!

If anyone is to do it it would be FR. I wouldn't expect the US airlines to sit back and watch it happen though.

When the US/EU really opens up in 2010 I really hope we see Easyjet USA and Ryanair USA along with Southwest EU. There will be only afew LCCs left after the credit crunch deals with the flackers and we will probably come out of it during this period which will probably rock aviation just like EZY did 11 years ago.

Bring on the new times ahead in Western Aviation. When BA get their deal with CO and AA the LCCs are going to have to move into the TATL market before it is too late. Remember, BA are still after IB which would make the partnership a HUGE player in Europe, North America and South America - watch out EU/US airlines!

[james170969]

I go to Torremolinos several times per year and I'm always amazed at the amount of Canadians and Americans I see and hear. There are also a number of Canadians and Americans who live along the Costa Del Sol. I presume it's the same in other coastal areas of Spain. My friend who lives in Torremolinos told me that there is only one transatlantic flight from Malaga per week and that's to New York with Continental so I think there is a market there for the likes of Ryanair.

[Devonair]

DL commencing flights from JFK to AGP in June, 4 times per week I believe.

[Playamar2]

James170969

There are no flights from Malaga to the USA at present (until DAL start next month). The only TATL service is a Air Transat A310 which is once a week.
Continental code share with Air Europa changing at Madrid.
Playamar2

[daz211]

I just cant get my head around AGP, would ALC not be better for FR.

[MUFC_fan]

Why?

The only difference is a crew room. The FR crew cannot fly the T7 as they are only 737 type rated.

If we were talking airbus then there would be more of a reason to select ALC.

[pee]

The traffic and LF data / April' 08

Passenger traffic at Ryanair surged by 15pc in April compared to the same month last year but its load factor slumped, its latest figures show.

The airline carried 4.72 million passengers in the month compared to 4.11 in the same month last year.
It has carried 51.55 million passengers in the year to the end of April, it said.

However, its load factor fell by 4pc from 83pc to 79pc.

Ryanair said that this Aprils load factor figures were weakened because Easter was in April of Last year but was in March this year.

In line with expectations, I'd say.

However, after several months of flying with other carriers, I took a flight yesterday (Monday) from BGY to TMP and I was surprised being unable to spot a single free seat left. Moreover, the price of my flight was really non-LCC alike. One of my colleages tried recently to book a TMP-HHN flight and he didn't succeed (the plane was full). There IS some existing potential still unexplored, don't you think?

On my flight, I overheard also a flight attendant's remark (while selling food and beverages): "Finns really keep us working all three hours". Kinda good customers, aren't we?

[aerospace]

In line with expectations, I'd say.

If you expected poor performance, yes it's in line with expectations.

-4p is a big decrease of their LF, which is very problematic for an airline that drives its revenue from the LF rather than from the yield.

Ok, last year April LF was high because Easter was in April.
The problem was actually more March results. How could they increase their LF of only +1% in March08 vs. 07 whereas Easter was in March in 2008???
If we consider March and April, therefore without easter effect, it's a net decrease of -2p of LF!

This is huge!

It clearly shows that Ryanair new bases are performing very badly. BOH looks a nightmare, BHD a stupid choice just against Aer Lingus, BRE is a disaster, VLC and ALC are difficult, without talking about MAD and MRS which apparently are still not breack-even.

Poor new bases + lower LF + higher fuel cost not hedged = bad performances

For me, it shows Ryanair top managers inability to enter in an optimisation model. When everybody were predicting a fuel barrel above 100$, how could they be 100% not hedged???
When everybody were saying german and spanish markets were saturated, how could they choose to launch bases at MAD, REU, ALC, VLC and BRE???

It's easy to tell the airports to reduce their costs because Ryanair is in a difficult position. That's unbelievable!!!
If they are in bad position, this is MAINLY because of theirselves...


Finally, only Ryanair people could think that if last year LF are of 83% and this year of 79%, this is a decrease of 4%

Of course, this is a decrease of 4p. This is unbelievable to see that on a public website! This is basic mathematic!!!

How could anybody at Ryanair noticed that???

I checked easyJet website and hopefully for them they are stated that correctly:

Load factor 90,2% 86,8% 3,4 pp

[EI-BUD]

aerospace comments

Aerospace, I was reading some of your comments about Ryanair. I would suggest that unless you are at a very senior level within Ryanair you are not in a position to say that Madrid or Marseille are not at break even, or to suggest that Belfast city is a poor choice against Aer Lingus, all Ryanair bases are performing well, Belfast City has required intense discounting to shift habits or flyers, ie to use Ryanair.

From the tone and language of your post it would seem that it is doom. The company is in great shape, cash rich, asset rich, and is best placed to meet a down turn, the beauty about Ryanair is that they will plan in advance of any slowing of profits instead of other companies who react to profit slumps when they happen. The average fare continues to fall and the operating margin is healthy.

I think that it is very easy to give the postmortem when things get slower/less profitable. I have confidence in the model that is Ryanair, and despite unhedged fuel they will be more profitable consistently that competitors going forward. For me the one weaknesses that it has is brand. MOL and Company need to invest some imagination into making Ryanair the airline of choice for other reasons other than price.

What do you think?

EI-BUD

[eu01]

Originally Posted by aerospace

-4p is a big decrease of their LF (...)
It clearly shows that Ryanair new bases are performing very badly (...)
...a nightmare (...)
...a stupid choice (...)
...a disaster (...)
how could they choose to launch bases at... ???

They simply went too far in developing their imaginary deal-driven network and bases, including most of the new, as you say, "disastrous" ones. But is there any sense in continuing the policy of selling numerous flights for pennies just because the carrier is able to save some euros/pounds at selected airports? Or perhaps would it have been wiser just to intensify the use of some niche markets where Ryanair has been successful in spite of being unable to get any "superior" deals with the local airports? Like, say, the above mentioned Tampere - or indeed anything else with good enough LF's and yields. Here and there people want to fly (and pay decently, I guess) - but nope, says FR, your airport doesn't grant us the marketing aid or something, you will not get any new routes. What's better: to sell flights at 50€ per pax getting no discount at the airport or to "give out" tickets for 10€ each to gain some 5€ of a local contribution? You cannot go beyond the limit of stupidity while huggling, otherwise the purpose is lost.

I think Ryanair's main competitor (EZY) has a better grasp of this matter and that's why their load factors are higher.

[Flitefone]

Ezy operate smaller aircraft (156 seats normally) which accounts to a large extent for the higher LF. 130 pax on an ezy flight typically represents 83% LF, 130 pax on a RYR (189 seats normally) represents 69% LF - simple maths.

What counts is not the LF or the airport, but the costs and the revenues.

RYR have sold 52m seats in the last 12 months - 1m per week. The airline is one of the most profitable in the world. Thats not a broken model however you look at it... EZY is equally impressive.

Lets stick to decent rumours..

FF

[kick the tires]

Flitefone,

selling 1 million seats per week means nothing if they are sold for 1p!

As for profitability, lets see what the 08 figures are like after profit warnings of -50%.

[Budfrey27]

....i don't know too much about yields and LF but would the limits on BHD flights paxwise bring the overall figure down a bit?

cheers
Bud

[ReallyAnnoyed]

Flitefone, loadfactor IS important! A 738 with 130 pax on board costs considerably more to operate than an A319 with 130 pax on board.

[LGS6753]

Ryanair use their 1p flights as a marketing exercise, and very successful it is too. Millions of people outside the industry have heard of FR by the use of these ultra-low fares.
But of course, it isn't 1p. Add to that the £4 credit card fee (far more than it costs them), the fact that a proportion of people booked on these flights don't actually fly, the costs of baggage, check-in, in-flight refreshments, insurance, etc and the value of click-through bookings from their website for cars, hotels and the like and you've got a much greater income than 1p.

Just looking at their figures, they make good profits by airline standards, and have a strong asset base. Indeed they are rumoured to be selling their early 737-800s for more than they paid for them, so they've had 5-6 years' use from them free! I'm afraid its tricks like that which place Ryanair apart from its competitors.

Their model will come under pressure when some or all of the following things happen:
- massive reduction in consumer disposable income
- insufficient routes available to continue the growth
- concerted efforts by airport operators to push up prices (highly unlikely)
- having to buy aircraft at more realistic prices and/or being unable to sell on existing fleet
- a safety issue impacting purely on FR

As others have said, it's a robust model for the present.

[ryan2000]

Ryanair and Shannon.

Interesting article in today's Irish Examiner about Ryanair's Shannon operation. They may look for a renegotiation although I can't see how much more favourable the terms could be from the airlines point of view.

[en2r]

Interesting article in today's Irish Examiner about Ryanair's Shannon operation. They may look for a renegotiation although I can't see how much more favourable the terms could be from the airlines point of view.

Ryanair have Shannon over a barrell. Bar Cityjet to Paris and Aer Lingus to Dublin, Ryanair have a complete monopoly on all shorthaul flights from Shannon. Ryanair can probably dictate to Shannon what they want because Shannon have no other choice but to accept whatever Ryanair are offering.