Ryanair - 6
Slim - many thanks for the list. I wasn't sure on one thing though - do the number refer purely to what lies in the official municipal boundary (probably the case, given that Paris looks comparable to Bucharest rather than London), or are they a measure of catchment area, showing number of people within perhaps 75 mins travelling time ?
Further, do you have figures combining both catchment area AND a proxy for disposable income (GDP per capita might be a start) ? Again, Paris should trounce Bucharest on this measure.
Other factors I was trying to think about are:
1) Not going head-to-head with another LCC when an airport probably can't support 2 substantial LCC operations - e.g. Budapest and Warsaw with large Wizz operations
2) Avoiding cities where there is only one airport for miles around that also happens to be a major hub for another airline (e.g. Munich). I consider Madrid to be an exception because of the newly released space in the old terminal
3) Looking for airports where the dominant airline is in a weakened state - easier to grab market share
Further, do you have figures combining both catchment area AND a proxy for disposable income (GDP per capita might be a start) ? Again, Paris should trounce Bucharest on this measure.
Other factors I was trying to think about are:
1) Not going head-to-head with another LCC when an airport probably can't support 2 substantial LCC operations - e.g. Budapest and Warsaw with large Wizz operations
2) Avoiding cities where there is only one airport for miles around that also happens to be a major hub for another airline (e.g. Munich). I consider Madrid to be an exception because of the newly released space in the old terminal
3) Looking for airports where the dominant airline is in a weakened state - easier to grab market share
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For business planning purposes, it is preferable to assess the total size of a conurbation rather than the official quoted population of a "city". City boundaries have in many cases been significantly outgrown in the years since lines were drawn on the map. This results in unreliability of data based solely upon population figures falling within a political or historic boundary. The example of Manchester provided by JES is an excellent case in point. Here is an urban centre which has experienced meteoric growth since the industrial revolution the early 1800's; a growth which political boundaries have never closely reflected.
If you are planning an enterprise such as those which interest us on PPRUNE, the only useful data is the population of the entire conurbation. The arbitrary figure representing the people who happen to live within a long outgrown boundary line is more of a hindrance than a help to accurate planning.
If you are planning an enterprise such as those which interest us on PPRUNE, the only useful data is the population of the entire conurbation. The arbitrary figure representing the people who happen to live within a long outgrown boundary line is more of a hindrance than a help to accurate planning.
I dont mean any offence by this but city populations mean 
all when considering conurbations as other posters have pointed out. Then there is the difficult task of working out propensity to fly, likely business links between cities and the number of airports within an hours drive of said city...
Im sure that is just the start of what any airline would look at when trying to find new markets.
As an example, Sheffield (no.46) DSA has failed to bring in results, EMA (Nottingham, Leicester, Derby, not being on the list) LBA and MAN (not on list either) all offer a superior Dublin service. EMA and MAN being equidistant from Sheffield to DSA, who gets the reduction and who gets the chop? Despite Sheffield having a large population statisticaly.
Bring back SZD
all when considering conurbations as other posters have pointed out. Then there is the difficult task of working out propensity to fly, likely business links between cities and the number of airports within an hours drive of said city...Im sure that is just the start of what any airline would look at when trying to find new markets.
As an example, Sheffield (no.46) DSA has failed to bring in results, EMA (Nottingham, Leicester, Derby, not being on the list) LBA and MAN (not on list either) all offer a superior Dublin service. EMA and MAN being equidistant from Sheffield to DSA, who gets the reduction and who gets the chop? Despite Sheffield having a large population statisticaly.
Bring back SZD
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City Populations
Agree with the above. Quoting DUB at 500,000 is merely quoting the pop of the Dublin City Council area which is basically central Dublin and the Inner suburbs.(Actually, quoting even less than it is!), and ignores the Dublin administrative areas of Dun Laoighre - Rathdown, South Dublin and Fingal completely, not to mention the overspill into Counties Wicklow, Meath and Kildare. The accepted Population of the Urban area of Dublin is 1.2 million, and that of the Greater Dublin Area is 1.7 million.
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Just a though. Ryanair de-camping (albeit) slowly from DUB and Ireland in general could be a pre-curser to the next take over of Aer Lingus.
The Irish goverment/EU arguement that Ryanair would be a monopoly airline in Ireland if they purchase Aer Lingus would be rather weak when/if Aer Lingus themselves have become the monopoly airline.
A third take over attempt, if successful, would then only require the disposal of the A320s with B737s in Aer Lingus colours. (For a time?) And the problems of duplication over routes would have been sorted pre-take over.
The Irish goverment/EU arguement that Ryanair would be a monopoly airline in Ireland if they purchase Aer Lingus would be rather weak when/if Aer Lingus themselves have become the monopoly airline.
A third take over attempt, if successful, would then only require the disposal of the A320s with B737s in Aer Lingus colours. (For a time?) And the problems of duplication over routes would have been sorted pre-take over.
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Early for April Fools?
Is it April 1st today or do Ryanair just think it is? Perhaps they are joining in the fun-poking at O'Bleary's recent suggestion for charging to use the loos;
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Those are municipal boundary figures: nevertheless, you don't have to be a genius to realise that these cities will have substantial draw from the hinterland and the total available market will probably be double the base figure.
What you have to be careful of is overlap: for example, London and Birmingham have a certain degree of overlap in catchment area as do Dortmund, Essen, Koln and Dusseldorf.
Equally, Manchester which isn't on the list has LPL, FR Base, just down the road.
In simple terms though you can see that availability of new territory is reducing.
Of course, the other very valid points you have made( to the vast majority of cogent individuals) don't stand up when you look at certain FR destinations, Torp, Beauvais, Knock, Valadollid, Hahn, Billund, Vasteras, Skavsta and the French beyond the back of beyond airports.
Never assume you are dealing with a sensible mind
What you have to be careful of is overlap: for example, London and Birmingham have a certain degree of overlap in catchment area as do Dortmund, Essen, Koln and Dusseldorf.
Equally, Manchester which isn't on the list has LPL, FR Base, just down the road.
In simple terms though you can see that availability of new territory is reducing.
Of course, the other very valid points you have made( to the vast majority of cogent individuals) don't stand up when you look at certain FR destinations, Torp, Beauvais, Knock, Valadollid, Hahn, Billund, Vasteras, Skavsta and the French beyond the back of beyond airports.
Never assume you are dealing with a sensible mind
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Originally Posted by big.al
Is it April 1st today or do Ryanair just think it is? Perhaps they are joining in the fun-poking at O'Bleary's recent suggestion for charging to use the loos;
Ryanair.com - News : Passengers to Suggest Next Discretionary Charge
Ryanair.com - News : Passengers to Suggest Next Discretionary Charge
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Seats must be the next optional extra. For those who want to go for less they could have a marked area on the floor and a lap belt that fits the the original seat mounting points.
Another option is to do away with extra fuel but this would need to be a whole plane option.
After the check in has gone the cabon crew will be next followed by the pilots (one at a time). I see a totally automatic plane top of MOLs wish list.
Another option is to do away with extra fuel but this would need to be a whole plane option.
After the check in has gone the cabon crew will be next followed by the pilots (one at a time). I see a totally automatic plane top of MOLs wish list.
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I want to respond to that excellent plan which David has shared, frankly - that is almost certainly going to happen. And with strength in all corners, perhaps another take-over bid? Meaing that Aer Lingus either joins them - or get's out.
Still, MOL has given Aer Lingus the perfect reason to expand, but in doing so might just led Aer Lingus to the end of runway line!
RYR has made cuts, but realistically, I can't actually believe that anyone actually uses those routes for anything more than visiting friends/family or weekend breaks - which means that they are unprofitable in the present economical climate.
To conclude, expansion is the key. More people flying = more profits.
Nikolai.
Still, MOL has given Aer Lingus the perfect reason to expand, but in doing so might just led Aer Lingus to the end of runway line!
RYR has made cuts, but realistically, I can't actually believe that anyone actually uses those routes for anything more than visiting friends/family or weekend breaks - which means that they are unprofitable in the present economical climate.
To conclude, expansion is the key. More people flying = more profits.
Nikolai.
Nikolai - my post was just me making intelligent guesses as to where FR might consider using airframes that are not currently occupied in the timetable along with some sort of rationale. I don't have inside information, so am a little puzzled as to why you think my suggestions are almost certainly going to happen !
If anyone who has worked as a route planner would be kind enough to spare a few minutes to give their thoughts, I'd be genuinely interested to hear from them - see weblink
http://www.pprune.org/airlines-airpo...ml#post4794323
If anyone who has worked as a route planner would be kind enough to spare a few minutes to give their thoughts, I'd be genuinely interested to hear from them - see weblink
http://www.pprune.org/airlines-airpo...ml#post4794323
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There is no need to be puzzled or confused - I think that musing is the best option for FR.
Give or take a few destinations and routes, but that is very likely going to happen.
I am sure there is going to be an annoucment soon.
I don't recall suggesting inside knowledge, but your plan was more like a strategic force; a little above casual musing!
Nikolai.
Give or take a few destinations and routes, but that is very likely going to happen.
I am sure there is going to be an annoucment soon.
I don't recall suggesting inside knowledge, but your plan was more like a strategic force; a little above casual musing!
Nikolai.
Moetropolitan area population
Could I suggest looking at the following data for population of *metropolitan* areas within Europe - probably gives a better idea as to potential number of passengers compared to those living purely within a city's official boundaries
Note how Paris is 11 million, Athens is reported as being around 3.75 million, and Manchester at 2.5 million
List of metropolitan areas in Europe by population - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Alternaitvely for urban areas in the EU (EU LCCs would need a good commercial reason to want to fly to places like Russia), look at:
Largest urban areas of the European Union - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Note how Paris is 11 million, Athens is reported as being around 3.75 million, and Manchester at 2.5 million
List of metropolitan areas in Europe by population - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Alternaitvely for urban areas in the EU (EU LCCs would need a good commercial reason to want to fly to places like Russia), look at:
Largest urban areas of the European Union - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia