BIRMINGHAM - 4
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Flybe Galway - gone?
Prompted by the Belfast City - Galway impending axe, I checked BHX.
The original winter schedule had Tuesday, Thursday & Saturday but it
now only shows October in the booking engine.
I suppose it might be back for summer 08 as flybe operate quite a few
seasonal routes. CAA Stats show that it has not set the world alight
and flybe never carried as many as Arran when they operated it.
Pete
The original winter schedule had Tuesday, Thursday & Saturday but it
now only shows October in the booking engine.
I suppose it might be back for summer 08 as flybe operate quite a few
seasonal routes. CAA Stats show that it has not set the world alight
and flybe never carried as many as Arran when they operated it.
Pete
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September Pax
Got this one totally wrong and what a result 
969407 up 2%
IT's were down 17000 making schedules even better than I first thought.
I had under estimated 1000 schedule pax per day, which has been a nice surprise.
As for my IT estimates, which is the easiest of all to calculate... I can't
explain other than a bad hair (if I had any) day. My estimate was 900000, I must keep remembering to take the happy pills.
2% compared to East Mids and Luton might sound poor but considering
the loss of BACON it is not that bad at all.
Per East Mids thread, baby are to announce two new routes and assuming
one is EMA - WAW, I wonder if the other is a new one for BHX?
Not much space in the BHX schedule for winter (Tu, Th Sat day flight) unless another route is reduced. My guess/hope is Krakow but this one is not amongst the rumours, yet SkyEurope have averages around 75-85% recently and it only has a few weeks to run.
Could it be MAN or CWL for change?
Pete
969407 up 2%
IT's were down 17000 making schedules even better than I first thought.
I had under estimated 1000 schedule pax per day, which has been a nice surprise.
As for my IT estimates, which is the easiest of all to calculate... I can't
explain other than a bad hair (if I had any) day. My estimate was 900000, I must keep remembering to take the happy pills.
2% compared to East Mids and Luton might sound poor but considering
the loss of BACON it is not that bad at all.
Per East Mids thread, baby are to announce two new routes and assuming
one is EMA - WAW, I wonder if the other is a new one for BHX?
Not much space in the BHX schedule for winter (Tu, Th Sat day flight) unless another route is reduced. My guess/hope is Krakow but this one is not amongst the rumours, yet SkyEurope have averages around 75-85% recently and it only has a few weeks to run.
Could it be MAN or CWL for change?
Pete
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Could it be MAN or CWL for change?
The only thing WW are interested in is expanding the EMA and BHX bases. You be very surprised if the route was from MAN - unless it was MAD!
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Does anybody know whether Monarch will be adding new routes from BHX next summer? The Monarch thread implied that the company was cutting quite a lot of Scheduled routes system-wide.
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Monarch
There were rumours that BHX would get aircraft number 5 but it has all gone quiet.
Summer 2008 is a virtual copy of summer 2007 with the odd tweak here and there but hardly noticeable at the moment.
While TJ is still there, then there is always hope.
Another forum has Monarch receiving 3 more 321's arriving next year, April, May & September but no hint where these are all going assuming it is true.
Pete
Summer 2008 is a virtual copy of summer 2007 with the odd tweak here and there but hardly noticeable at the moment.
While TJ is still there, then there is always hope.
Another forum has Monarch receiving 3 more 321's arriving next year, April, May & September but no hint where these are all going assuming it is true.
Pete
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Modest 2008 increases on some routes
Just checked a few reservation systems out and noted the
following: -
From 7/1/08 SAS evening flight re-timed to 1520/1600 and upgraded from
the Q400 to MD80 series.
It stays the same aircraft type for summer but 10 minutes later.
From April the morning flight on Mon & Wed is a 319.
The Q400 remains on the weekend flights
Lufthansa Munich from 2/1/08 is showing as a 735 on the afternoon
flight and night-stopper. There is the odd cancellation in the first week
but then they both stay as a 735's until the end of March less a week
of CR7/9's in February. Back to 3 x RJ85 in April.
Added to the afternoon 16.40 KLM going back to mainline as well
not too bad for winter.
Pete
following: -
From 7/1/08 SAS evening flight re-timed to 1520/1600 and upgraded from
the Q400 to MD80 series.
It stays the same aircraft type for summer but 10 minutes later.
From April the morning flight on Mon & Wed is a 319.
The Q400 remains on the weekend flights
Lufthansa Munich from 2/1/08 is showing as a 735 on the afternoon
flight and night-stopper. There is the odd cancellation in the first week
but then they both stay as a 735's until the end of March less a week
of CR7/9's in February. Back to 3 x RJ85 in April.
Added to the afternoon 16.40 KLM going back to mainline as well
not too bad for winter.
Pete
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I know that quantity does not necessarily equal quality, but surely Swissport must be doing something right at BHX, as they are now the largest handling agent at the airport, having been there only for a few years.
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Swissport/Aviance
Do we know who has the new "Thomas Cook/MyTravel" contract and
when does it start?
I am just presuming that there will be a decision at some point as TCK are
Aviance and MYT Swissport.
Pete
when does it start?
I am just presuming that there will be a decision at some point as TCK are
Aviance and MYT Swissport.
Pete
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Re Swissport...
Well it's definitely not a buyout of BHX. The new board meet next week. Don't think they will want to sell what they just aquired. The councils definitely are not selling.
If the Company President showed his face, I doubt they are pulling out. As someone said they have expanded a lot in a little time compared to the others.
Maybe they are going to get some decent equipment at last.....
Well it's definitely not a buyout of BHX. The new board meet next week. Don't think they will want to sell what they just aquired. The councils definitely are not selling.
If the Company President showed his face, I doubt they are pulling out. As someone said they have expanded a lot in a little time compared to the others.
Maybe they are going to get some decent equipment at last.....
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how's the Lyon route doing? I believe it's doing quite well so could we see an upgrade on a few flights to a CRJ7
Also, Whoosh appear to be doing OK, not brilliant but they are getting a steady stream of punters although the ATR42 maybe a little too large for the route (possibly ideal for a Jetstream41?)
FC
Also, Whoosh appear to be doing OK, not brilliant but they are getting a steady stream of punters although the ATR42 maybe a little too large for the route (possibly ideal for a Jetstream41?)
FC
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FC
I hope the Lyon does upsize to a CR7 before the skiing season starts, as the CR2 really struggles with the amount of skis it can carry along with the luggage due to the small rear hold! The CR7 has the luxury of an under floor hold as well as the rear one.
I hope the Lyon does upsize to a CR7 before the skiing season starts, as the CR2 really struggles with the amount of skis it can carry along with the luggage due to the small rear hold! The CR7 has the luxury of an under floor hold as well as the rear one.
air france lys
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Air France LYS-BHX
Great result! To see an increase on an already well established route for AF in their first month of operation is good news. Fares were not cheap either so yeilds should be good too. I also think that the flight didn't start until the 3rd?? so it maybe even more than a 1% increase. The way the flights are timed, there is room for another night stopping CRJ arriving late in BHX and departing early to LYS which would be more adventagous for BHX originating passengers and would allow for a business day in LYS.
Pity other carriers haven't taken on some of these BACON routes. I'm sure LH would make a better job of HAM, HAJ and STR than Flymaybe and still no TXL, ARN or VIE???
Daza
Pity other carriers haven't taken on some of these BACON routes. I'm sure LH would make a better job of HAM, HAJ and STR than Flymaybe and still no TXL, ARN or VIE???
Daza
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September 2007 routes
Lyon was very good considering the 5-6 month gap from when BACON
ceased. However it was averaging 39 in March but off course the SKI
season was still in swing (there was snow in Europe - just
).
Some other selective routes: -
Krakow 2186 - average pax 137 load factor 92%
Lisbon 4617 - average pax 136 load factor 91%
Barcelona 7661 - average pax 128 load factor 86%
Marseille 3226 - average pax 95 load factor 65%
Warsaw 4022 - average pax 118 load factor 79%
Galway 893 - average pax 34 load factor 44%
Waterford 1881 - average pax 38 load factor 57%
Toulouse 1545 - average pax 35 load factor 72%
Cologne 3750 - average pax 89 load factor 60
Dubai 32557 - average pax 271 load factor 77%
Newark 9745 - average pax 162 load factor 93%
Delhi 3272 - average pax 74 but transits I believe were good
Ashkhabad - 4991 average pax 147 about 77%
Islamabad 7107 - average pax 197 load factor 60%
Dundee 1605 average 18 or 39% based on 90 rotations
Pity that no other airline can make a 92% load factor work
(Krakow) as it has two months since its demise was known -
what a disappointment.
The PK ISB was up but still a low load factor (Ramadan affected it?)
Galway and Cologne are going and no surprises there unless Galway
reappears in summer.
Still a bit surprised that Toulouse is going even if they have wiped
about 2500 pax off per month. I have not posted Hamburg but it is
still struggling, Stuttgart perked up a little and so did laod factors on Dusseldorf. However I agree with Daza and I think other airlines would
do better.
Newark continues to frustrate, can't make money with two a day
or ten a week but they must be turning people away with constant
load factors of 90%. Again I trust it is the lack of business pax.
Dubai was up about 7000 and the evening EK38/37 is nearing capacity
on a regular basis with its connections to Aus, are you watching Qatar?
Pete
ceased. However it was averaging 39 in March but off course the SKI
season was still in swing (there was snow in Europe - just
).Some other selective routes: -
Krakow 2186 - average pax 137 load factor 92%
Lisbon 4617 - average pax 136 load factor 91%
Barcelona 7661 - average pax 128 load factor 86%
Marseille 3226 - average pax 95 load factor 65%
Warsaw 4022 - average pax 118 load factor 79%
Galway 893 - average pax 34 load factor 44%
Waterford 1881 - average pax 38 load factor 57%
Toulouse 1545 - average pax 35 load factor 72%
Cologne 3750 - average pax 89 load factor 60
Dubai 32557 - average pax 271 load factor 77%
Newark 9745 - average pax 162 load factor 93%
Delhi 3272 - average pax 74 but transits I believe were good
Ashkhabad - 4991 average pax 147 about 77%
Islamabad 7107 - average pax 197 load factor 60%
Dundee 1605 average 18 or 39% based on 90 rotations
Pity that no other airline can make a 92% load factor work
(Krakow) as it has two months since its demise was known -
what a disappointment.
The PK ISB was up but still a low load factor (Ramadan affected it?)
Galway and Cologne are going and no surprises there unless Galway
reappears in summer.
Still a bit surprised that Toulouse is going even if they have wiped
about 2500 pax off per month. I have not posted Hamburg but it is
still struggling, Stuttgart perked up a little and so did laod factors on Dusseldorf. However I agree with Daza and I think other airlines would
do better.
Newark continues to frustrate, can't make money with two a day
or ten a week but they must be turning people away with constant
load factors of 90%. Again I trust it is the lack of business pax.
Dubai was up about 7000 and the evening EK38/37 is nearing capacity
on a regular basis with its connections to Aus, are you watching Qatar?
Pete
Last edited by OltonPete; 19th Oct 2007 at 17:59. Reason: spelling & added text
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Af Tls-bhx
I have used the BHX-TLS route for many years with work, though not this year. It was always busy and I felt that two ER4/CRJ aircraft could have made it a business day return route. Maybe another for AF?
I worry about summer 2008 with Flybe at BHX. None of the former BACON routes are showing enough growth to warrant DH8-400 and certainly none of the routes have needed an EMB195. I feel we may see a further cull of routes from Flybe who, lets face it have never really developed BHX they seem to use it as a testing ground for routes, then move to where there is less competition such as NWI and SOU. Pity BMI didnt move in on those BA routes.
Daza
I worry about summer 2008 with Flybe at BHX. None of the former BACON routes are showing enough growth to warrant DH8-400 and certainly none of the routes have needed an EMB195. I feel we may see a further cull of routes from Flybe who, lets face it have never really developed BHX they seem to use it as a testing ground for routes, then move to where there is less competition such as NWI and SOU. Pity BMI didnt move in on those BA routes.
Daza
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Couldn't agree with you more Daza. I have felt for a long time that Flybes main priorities lie at SOU and EXT and I also think that former BACON pax have deserted them in droves at BHX since the takeover, hence the reducing loads and credible worries for the future of a number of routes Summer 08. BA/BACON had a good reputation and on board product and their staff generally helpful and professional (not saying that BE are not before anyone jumps down my throat - like any airline they have good and bad days). I think BHX will see a reduced presence from BE as they expand and make the most of their strengths at both SOU and EXT. Trouble is for BHX who will step in - lets face it the airport has not exactly attracted a huge number of new routes or carriers over the past couple of years and whenever something new does start its introduction is nearly always tempered by the loss of an existing route. And the airport can simply not afford to lose any more routes while the likes of others on the doorstep carry on gaining.
Wotmesir?
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Are the other airports 'on the doorstep' gaining trade due to the excellent communications from Brum to London/Manchester? Being around 80/120 miles from the major UK airports BHX was never going to be the big player that others are when you look at the catchment areas within about an hours drive.
When I lived in Marston Green then BHX was the first choice for a direct flight, where available, but a short train journey gave me much more choice. The southern catchment area (say 50 miles) are within easier reach of the London airports, while 50 north will probably choose MAN.
Birmingham is a victim of geography, too close to London to be the major UK entry point but too far from the north to be the second airport. With the local West Midlands population BHX will always be attractive to the charter airlines but less so to the legacy carriers who will always base long haul at London/Manchester and provide feeder flights between the two.
Maybe it is time for BHX to embrace the lo-co market in a bigger way. Sure there are arguments for and against but the surrounding population would use them and would not have to travel to EMA/LPL/STN etc.. The likes of FR and EZY would provide new destinations and passenger turnover. Busier terminals mean more revenue for the airport and will attract other airlines keen to tap into the 3 million plus that live within easy reach of BHX.
It may be simplistic but it is a business model that works. Look at STN, crap communications with all but London yet it thrives. BHX has to identify its true market and not try to compete with the big boys for the inter-continental work excepting the niche market it already has.
Sorry if I sound a bit downbeat. Birmingham deserves better than it has.
When I lived in Marston Green then BHX was the first choice for a direct flight, where available, but a short train journey gave me much more choice. The southern catchment area (say 50 miles) are within easier reach of the London airports, while 50 north will probably choose MAN.
Birmingham is a victim of geography, too close to London to be the major UK entry point but too far from the north to be the second airport. With the local West Midlands population BHX will always be attractive to the charter airlines but less so to the legacy carriers who will always base long haul at London/Manchester and provide feeder flights between the two.
Maybe it is time for BHX to embrace the lo-co market in a bigger way. Sure there are arguments for and against but the surrounding population would use them and would not have to travel to EMA/LPL/STN etc.. The likes of FR and EZY would provide new destinations and passenger turnover. Busier terminals mean more revenue for the airport and will attract other airlines keen to tap into the 3 million plus that live within easy reach of BHX.
It may be simplistic but it is a business model that works. Look at STN, crap communications with all but London yet it thrives. BHX has to identify its true market and not try to compete with the big boys for the inter-continental work excepting the niche market it already has.
Sorry if I sound a bit downbeat. Birmingham deserves better than it has.
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I agree with some of the comments raised here but would like to draw a few things to Daza and Gayfriendly's attention.
Flybe have always in the past introduced new routes to BHX and therefore feel that they do not put all their energy into EXT and SOU. If pax are not willing to use the services enough to allow them to be profitable, Flybe are not gonna keep them going if the aircraft could be used elsewhere.
I think Flybe have given BHX a fair chance.....the Croatian routes were a big gamble and opened up a new market. It worked and therefore, should, be back next year.
Alot of the routes to France are always summer only and indeed a number of French services are cut at EXT, SOU, LBA, EDI and other places.
Flybe have always in the past introduced new routes to BHX and therefore feel that they do not put all their energy into EXT and SOU. If pax are not willing to use the services enough to allow them to be profitable, Flybe are not gonna keep them going if the aircraft could be used elsewhere.
I think Flybe have given BHX a fair chance.....the Croatian routes were a big gamble and opened up a new market. It worked and therefore, should, be back next year.
Alot of the routes to France are always summer only and indeed a number of French services are cut at EXT, SOU, LBA, EDI and other places.