IRELAND WEST AIRPORT KNOCK

[840]

If Aer Lingus took it over, it would almost certainly be an Aer Lingus Regional flight in an ATR.

They operate the ATR from Cork and Shannon, so it would seem unlikely that Knock would use the A320.

[iwak]

I think there is no reason why a 4weekly a320 wouldn't be sustainable with are lingus. Aer lingus regional can be quite pricey and I think this would lead to a fall in passenger numbers if they were to operate the route.

I still think the best options would be jet 2 for low fares and high volume but flybe have the right size aircraft for a 7 day week operation with the added bonus of interline options for connections.

Would I be right in guessing the route carries circa 50,000 per annum?

[NorthernCounties]

Beggers can't be choosers though.

I know I'd much rather a 5-7 weekly ATR service as opposed to a 4 weekly A320 service.

Also were would the A320 come from? There is no base there, and W rotation planning for just four weekly rotations would be a pain!

I could see Knock getting services on the days Shannon does via a W rotation.

However, I think the actual airline that will step in is Flybe... I'd prefer them tbh too!

[840]

At one point ORK-MAN had 11 BMIBaby 737s a week, plus 7 Aer Lingus A320s.

Now, it's just 2 ATR 72s a day.

For airlines now, it's all about yield, not providing cheap fares to customers.

If Aer Lingus were to consider launching a route to Knock using an A320 doing a W, it would seem more likely for a hub connection like AMS or CDG. Seeing that Knock doesn't have a hub connection yet, there is probably the potential to extract some decent yield there.

[Kinocker]

Would I be right in guessing the route carries circa 50,000 per annum?

Close enough, 47,885 last year, which is a considerable number given the competition from Ryanair with routes to LPL and LBA. It is the fifth busiest route at the airport after STN, LTN, LGW and LPL.

I think its a given that if its Aer Lingus it will be under the EI Regional brand. Would have previously said that RE wouldn't compete with themselves out of Galway but given that they are now doing it at Shannon, they may well be willing to do likewise at Knock. However, my preference would remain flybe as it would help them to improve their brand awareness in this part of the world, I think there is room for them to expand into other routes from Knock and maybe eventually base a plane here.

I like Aer Lingus but my opinion is that they have never properly given Knock the chance it deserves and are unlikely to start doing so now. If they set up MAN it would probably just be a one off route with no real possibility for future expansion from the airline. That is why we have UK carriers like bmibaby and flybe competing with Ryanair here by flying to the major UK airports when at Shannon and Cork it is Aer Lingus doing the competing on these routes.

[Kinocker]

Had a very nice flight into Knock today with flybe, landed from the west which I haven't done in a long time - got a nice aerial tour of east Mayo thrown in.

I'd say somewhere between 55 and 60 on board, back of the plane was packed but a good few spare seats up front, I think they load it that way for weight balance on the dash 8.

Unfortunately it looks like the flight back to Edinburgh has had a four hour delay, I don't know why, everything seemed to run smoothly on the flight into Knock - I guess I was lucky to have escaped a significant delay today.

[Knock63]

I believe the problem was something to do with a faulty hydraulic pump. Replacement aircraft flew in from Bhx to take the pax at 17:00.

[Kinocker]

Credit to flybe for getting another plane over yesterday afternoon to get the passengers to Edinburgh. Plenty of airlines would have cancelled the flight and that would have been that. The original plane went to Birmingham this morning to replace the replacement, so to speak.

Interesting front page in today's Mayo Advertiser. Photo of the inaugural Edinburgh arrival (featuring Ring of course) but also an advert right underneath from Visit Scotland and Galway Airport promoting the Aer Arann Edinburgh service. Clearly Galway not giving this one up without a fight. Don't think this part of the world is populated enough to sustain both services...

Eight of the 12 Ryanair routes have been loaded into the booking engine for the winter season. Faro, Alicante and Reus not there as they are seasonal routes. Gran Canaria is a notable absentee though as it was meant to be a year round service. Of course it may yet be added and these things take time but it is strange that Tenerife and Lanzarote have been updated but Gran Canaria has not.

EDIT: Jamie (below) seems to have clarified that it will not, in fact, operate. That's a pity but six different sun destinations on 738s always seemed like it might be overkill with people taking less holidays these days. Alicante may not return next year due to the Ryanair dispute there so there might be a possibility for Gran Canaria to come back next summer.

[Jamie2k9]

Loads on TFS and LPA routes from NOC.

Tenerife - Feb = 54% (4 flights)
Tenerife - March = 58% - SNN had 77% (both airports had 10 flights)
Gran Caneria - Feb = 12% (2 flights)
Gran Caneria - March = 37% - SNN had 63% (both airports had 10 flights)

Source Aena

Dispute fares from Knock being much cheaper than Shannon, SNN seems to be doing best.

Gran Caneria was very poor for the first full month. Which is why it will not operate next winter.

Alicante may not return next year due to the Ryanair dispute there so there might be a possibility for Gran Canaria to come back next summer.

I think ALC will be back but Gran Canaria may be at risk as there are problems with the base which may close in the coming months.

It will be intresting to see what affect ACE has on LPA and TFS as I think it will be the best out of all 3.

[Fly_bill]

Winter

Interesting stats Jamie, In fairness its early days with Las Palmas and the Canaries routes and it will probably take time before people become accustomed to these routes at the airport, Id have no doubt you will see a major increase in numbers over summer months (I understand LPA seeing very strong numbers in April and I understand ACE is running close to 90% for the month but they are all realtively new. I think two canary islands routes during the winter is ample and dont want overkill, routes are more established out of Shannon as been in place a longer time so would be interesting to see like for like comparisons this time next year once routes are estalblished, also SNN doesent have FAO or ALC or REU which accounts for 9 flights a week in addition which probably is having impact on other sun routes as this is a lot of capacity especially in a recession so all in all routes doing ok!

[Jamie2k9]

Just on another note when you book a Ryanair flight from Knock does it say when you are booking you have to pay a ADF. Aer Lingus and Aer Arann clearly state this but do Ryanair?

[Fly_bill]

No, Ryanair refuse to publish it on their website, they operate a similar policy in relation to other airports who have an ADF in place

[sawtooth]

Ryanair have loaded winter timetable up to March 2012. No major changes jump out, mostly similar times and frequencies. STN, LTN, EMA, BRS, LPL, LBA, TFS, ACE loaded. FAO, ALC & REU not yet loaded though they are seasonal so will probably come later. LPA was supposed to be year round, but as Jamie2k9 posts show it's had one of the weaker starts, wait and see.

On London NOC-STN 13.25 daily except Monday with an 8.30 morning flight (handy for workers, now if they could just do a late Friday)!!

[Jamie2k9]

STN times will change along with some other route times possibly. FR allow 2 months to change flight times/days.

[Knock63]

I wonder is there any truth in the rumour about new FR flights from Knock to FUE and IBZ, seems to be a LOT of holiday destinations already.

[CARNMANORLAD]

I doubt those rumours are true cause the LFs on Gran Canaria show that NOC have more than enough sun routes for the demand. If Gran Canaria aint popular why would Fuertebentura be?

[Kinocker]

Only possibility would be if they feel there is more summer capacity there and are planning to operate them seasonally. Judging by today the Faro flights are doing very well, huge crowd in the departures lounge and a big crowd off the inbound flight as well. It looks very much as though two winter sun routes is plenty though going by the February and March loads this year.

I was on the flybe flight back to Edinburgh, just over half full and a very nice flight. Nice to be able to check in with no hold baggage and not be charged extra for the privilege like the Ryanair passengers in the adjacent queue were!

[sawtooth]

Neither are FR bases at the moment so I'd imagine not this year unless they have a fall out with one of the other 3. Canaries seem seriously well served along with ACE charters, short ferry hop to Corralejo. Who knows maybe FUE feel left out of the hub club and would pay for some FR love.

IBZ could add some variety for younger folk, currently only served from DUB.

Would be better to see them grow current Spanish routes and diversify a bit next year into Italy. Also still believe there is inbound potential from France and Germany if well marketed with Discover Ireland.

[iwak]

Hi kinocker

Good to hear you had a nice flight back to edi ,did you see what the load was like on the inbound.

The canaries are well served from knock and I think Malaga would be more realistic than ibz .

Any rumours on a carrier for man for the winter!

[Jamie2k9]

NOC will not see a FUE service unless NOC or FUE are a base. Ryanair would not operate a W route from FUE.

I don't see IBZ happoning.