Aer Lingus - 2

[Faire d'income]

But the thing is, MOL wont stop here if the takeover falls through,
he wont lose money or face, he will go head to head with EI and I would not put it past him to buy another airline or even just aircraft for longhaul and go head to head on all routes, EI will become a tiny airline with high prices and tiny routes its not what I want but its what MOL wants and he normaly gets what he wants. So if I worked for EI I would be thinking, do I
want to work for a timy airline that will be cutting routes and jobs or would I want to work for an airline that announces new routes almost every month and buys new a/c 3x a year.

Daz why would he wipe out a company he has just invested €300m of his shareholders money in?

Don't listen to his media rubbish. He detests the media almost as much as his staff.

[akerosid]

Today's Sunday Times suggests that EI is now looking at focusing its efforts on developing existing short haul routes, which seems to be a departure from the last strategy, which appeared to focus on short haul routes of more than 2h. Regardless of what s/h routes are operated, FR can still complete with them, route for route if it chooses; it's already signalled a significant increase in s/h routes ex-DUB if the planned takeover fails, so why not proceed with long haul plans?

There's been very little said by EI about long haul; OK, growth on t/a routes is stalled by the Open Skies thing, but what about eastbound growth?

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/newspap...426416,00.html

[daz211]

Originally Posted by Faire d'income

Daz why would he wipe out a company he has just invested €300m of his shareholders money in?

Don't listen to his media rubbish. He detests the media almost as much as his staff.

He only bought shares to try and takeover the company, if he cant take
over the company he could sell them at a profit, just because you buy shares, you dont have to keep hold of them.

[akerosid]

Fine in theory, but how do you dump nearly a fifth of shares of a company onto the market without making a loss - particularly if people know that once you've sold out, you're going to make life incredibly difficult for the company in question?

In this respect, I see MO'L being a little stuck; he has also said that he intends to remain an investor in EI for the foreseeable future.

I tend to believe he is involved for the long term; much of what he intends to achieve for EI could still be achievable even if FR were a minority shareholder. From EI's perspective, isn't it a bit disingenuous not ignore a shareholder with 1/5 of the airline's shareholding, particularly if that shareholder could help it get major discounts on new aircraft or help it prepare for the onslaught of new US competition?

[daz211]

I see what your saying but I dont think he would have long to wait until
EI's other shareholders would rip his arm of to get that stake back into their own hand.

[Robertkc]

akerosid

Originally Posted by akerosid

Alternatively, could it be that DM has finally tumbled to the realisation that EI's best hope of success on t/a routes - even when the stopover ratio is reduced - is to have FR on board as a partner?

DM's best hope of gaining immediate growth on long-haul is to team up with his ex-employers Emirates. They have the largest order book for wide-body aircraft in the world. Plus - Aer Lingus have one thing which EK covet badly: those slots at LHR, which Aer Lingus/Ireland woulnd't need if they had a sufficient long-haul operation out of Dublin.

When the ratio is relaxed, the US carriers will make life very hard for EI...

EI have one advantage over all the US carriers - they're a OneWorld partner with American, and the two together can feed traffic to each others short-haul networks on their respective sides of the Atlantic.

[brian_dromey]

Originally Posted by Robertkc

EI have one advantage over all the US carriers - they're a OneWorld partner with American, and the two together can feed traffic to each others short-haul networks on their respective sides of the Atlantic.

Actually EI are no longer a oneworld member. From April(I think, maybe a month or two out, correct me if Im wrong) They will still retain a code-share realtionship with many of the carriers in oneworld, but a formal member EI no longer is.

If EI wants to grow, they should look seriously at aquiring the A346s that EK has apparently cancelled. Buy em cheap, and the economics might be OK, especially as interim lift while they wait for the XWB. There might be payoad issues out of DUB tho? At any rate there are at least 10 free slots comming available on the 330/340 line. They would do quite nicely as medium-term lift until the next gerneration is available, and they should be going for a song.

As for the american carriers, I personally dont see them as huge threat, let us remember that EI has a cost base which can successfully fend off FR. Although the Americans have more compeditive costs these days, I seriously doubt their costs come within an asses roar of EI's. The only problem with EIs long haul network is its relatively limited scope, especially eastwards. (oh ya, PTVs as well!)

[akerosid]

I certainly agree with your comment about LHR. I think that with the
likely steep increase in green taxes in the UK - not to mention ever
more stringent security procedures, transit via LHR becomes all the more
undesirable. Indeed, if anything, it should be discouraged - and not
just in favour of AMS, FRA, CDG etc, but in favour of long haul to Asia,
direct.

I have long wondered if EI could team up with EK with regard to its
impending order for 787s (given EK's relationship with Airbus, I think
we can safely say 350s are out?!). EK is still looking at the 787 as an option (although, I think, at present, it's more focused on the larger widebodies, due to the problems with the 380 and 346.)

The thing that concerns me is that with the cost cutting plan DM has
recently signalled, does EI have the commitment to develop the kind of
long haul product EI needs, to be able to compete? If not, maybe it is
best just to feed into EK, or else, to develop the long haul low cost
concept on eastbound routes out of Ireland.

It would suit EK fine, I'm sure, to take feed from EI, but in an age
when we're more focused on the enviornmental friendliness of routes,
isn't it better to take them right to a major Asian hub, such as BKK or
HKG. It would be a bit of a pyrrhic victory just to change one connection point (LHR) for another, DXB.

Also, EI is no longer in oneworld and I think that while there is some
scope for developing a r'ship with AA, most US carriers are trying to
develop capacity on long haul routes? Wouldn't they rather operate their
own services?

With regard to the environmental issues, it occurred to me that with ever more stringent environmental issues and standards, is it realistic or fair for the EU to continue to insist on the current 1:1 on t/a routes. If O/S fails to get the go ahead when the EU meets the US later this year, we could still be stuck with the current regs if the EU decides to dig its heels in. Perhaps the govt could argue that the obligation placed on it by another EU agency trumps this and in that way, get around it? Worth a try?

[akerosid]

Originally Posted by brian_dromey

Actually EI are no longer a oneworld member. From April(I think, maybe a month or two out, correct me if Im wrong) They will still retain a code-share realtionship with many of the carriers in oneworld, but a formal member EI no longer is.
If EI wants to grow, they should look seriously at aquiring the A346s that EK has apparently cancelled. Buy em cheap, and the economics might be OK, especially as interim lift while they wait for the XWB. There might be payoad issues out of DUB tho? At any rate there are at least 10 free slots comming available on the 330/340 line. They would do quite nicely as medium-term lift until the next gerneration is available, and they should be going for a song.
As for the american carriers, I personally dont see them as huge threat, let us remember that EI has a cost base which can successfully fend off FR. Although the Americans have more compeditive costs these days, I seriously doubt their costs come within an asses roar of EI's. The only problem with EIs long haul network is its relatively limited scope, especially eastwards. (oh ya, PTVs as well!)

Remember, these aircraft are on the same production line as the 330s, so they can be delivered as such; the 330 is about the only widebody that's actually working for Airbus, so I would expect all of these production slots to be converted to 330s. Indeed, DM mentioned some time ago (albeit before EK cancellation - and indeed, the FR plans - were announced) that Airbus was offering it three 330s for 2008 delivery; nothing since ... Getting 330s is a transitional phase for EI and doesn't preclude 787s, although of course, Airbus will bend over backwards to get EI on board with the 350XWB; a 330 customer going for 787s is exactly the message it doesn't want to send out.

PTVs are a must if EI wants to be a serious player on long haul routes, even if it goes down the long haul low cost route. DM has recognised this pretty soon after taking over, although he hasn't done anything about it; I would expect to see a new product in J and Y classes being introduced with the two new 330s being introduced next year.

[brian_dromey]

Originally Posted by akerosid

Indeed, DM mentioned some time ago (albeit before EK cancellation - and indeed, the FR plans - were announced) that Airbus was offering it three 330s for 2008 delivery; nothing since ... Getting 330s is a transitional phase for EI and doesn't preclude 787s.

I would expect to see a new product in J and Y classes being introduced with the two new 330s being introduced next year.

Well if you add the two already on the way to that three, along with the 10 EK slots, the ballpark figure for the future EI fleet. Assuming that all of the 332s were kept(but the 333s dumped) gives a total of 18. I assume that Airbus would be offering these a/c at exceptional prices, especially if EI were also to commit to the XWB for deliver c2015. I think the 332 could do BKK OK, but would be slightly payload limited to SIN? JNB should also be possible? Maybe someone with more knowlage of the specs could confirm?
Let us remember that the A330 is still a really, really good and economical a/c.Especially on Eis surrent network. Also the american airlines will still be operating 757/767s to Ireland untill possibly 2020. EI needs a long haul fleet, 787 is hard to come by and the XWB will most likely sufer delays. By taking the best of the current aircraft available, but still having NGs on order, EI can avoid trouble should there be delays with whatever NG widebody it goes for.

New product is definately hoped for, but what are the chances? We all had money on new cabins b4 DXB, but looked what happened.

[Just a spotter]

Just Spotted ...

Ryanair asks EU permission to buy Aer Lingus

Ryanair today asked the European Commission for permission to acquire Aer Lingus, according to the European Commission website.

http://www.rte.ie/business/2006/1030/ryanair.html

mind you the picture with the story as told by "The Times of Malta" over the weekend reminds us of bygone fleet commonality between FR & EI!

http://www.timesofmalta.com/core/article.php?id=241265



JAS

[840]

New routes announced today

http://www.rte.ie/business/2006/1031/aerlingus.html

Is it just me or are Cork-Manchester and Dublin-Athens the only ones there that are actually new routes.

[a1234]

Why don't Aer Lingus fly to Cardiff? The Dublin route is currently provided by Aer Arann, but surely Aer Lingus would make more sense between the two airports?

[dublinamg]

Aer Lingus go through the same process of announcing new routes and increases in frequencies while also cutting back elsewhere. Just having a quick look at the booking engine for July seems to suggest that both Almeria and Bristol are being dropped (just looked at the first few detinations).

It would be sad to see Bristol go again - first route of the airline - also a great city as I found out for the first time recently and Bath of course. It seems like the same as what happened to Liverpool this year - go on a UK route for a while, drop it back from daily to 5 weekly and then drop it altogether. Hope I'm wrong about that. Id they aren't doing Bristol I can't see them doing Cardiff as they haven't been there in modern times. What are the odds that Newcastle will end up the same way next year?

[VanBosh]

Valencia seems to have gone too.

[Provance]

are those not seasonal routes ?

[Provance]

ALSO, perhaps the bristol timings havent been loaded into the system yet .................. or your correct and that route is facing the AXE

[cym]

CWL

Would have thought that CWL would have been an ideal opportunity for EI given passenger volumes that FR carried (they were well on the way to twice daily when commercials with the airport authority resulted in them pulling the plug).

Co existed with BRS DUB well with both routes growing.

Also an excellent way of using the BRS aircraft if they're dropping the route.

[johnrizzo2000]

I'd be surprised to see Valencia going! Bristol wouldnt surprise me!

[Bearcat]

doesnt suprise re EGGD....Loads and yields were crap. As a driver it is and always was a sh@t hole in bad weather.

Bristol city itself is a fine place and I always think of Jill Dando (RIP) departing 27 as the town on the beach on the 09 end is where she came from.