HEATHROW

[DaveReidUK]

Originally Posted by rutankrd

Again what are these LHR routes that survive ONLY because of connections.

Names please.

It might be quicker to name those routes that could survive unscathed if 35% of their passengers, on average, disappeared.

[Bagso]

Bound to say I do think the term “vile” is a bit unsavoury.
Firstly and foremost Alex Salmond represents Scottish interests, you may not agree, but good luck to him, that is after all what he was voted in for, and what his own constituents clearly want.
I would welcome some of that passion from our own MPs up here in Greater Manchester who suffer complete amnesia and a failure to do some basic maths when they step into the hallowed corridors of Westminster.
Extricating any Government investment in The North is like pulling teeth compared to monies seen as a given in the South East. We may get all watery eyed when the relative pitence of a few million is spent on the Manchester – Leeds railway line but it is as nothing to the billions signed off on a whim for projects down South.
That said, If as reported the Government are not prepared to bank roll the surrounding infrastructure it will be somewhat academic.
If there is a suspicion of “smoke and mirrors” and LHR does indeed have to pay for earthworks beyond the M25 I’m not sure where that leaves the project anyway. HAL might have a seemingly endless pot of money but would that extend to what is currently an unaccounted budget figure of a min’ £5Bn on roads /rail etc OR like a few us do they think these costs might fall into an open ended bottom less pit, hence the CEOs insistence on getting the Government to fully underwrite this particular part of the project ? ….oh not forgetting that extra £500m heading North of the border !
Scots telling the English what to do….no wonder The Daily Mail is so exercised.

[GrahamK]

Air India introducing a 3rd daily Delhi flight from 1st November, flight operates using a 777-200LR, early morning arrival and departure

[eggc]

..and the soon to be announced MAN route by AI cancelled, but hey, LHR expansion will be good for regional airports

[GrahamK]

LHR expansion is good for regional airports

[eggc]

We'll have to agree to disagree on that Graham. Maybe for Liverpool and a couple of others that may get the odd shuttle to connect from, but I cannot see a single benefit for BHX, MAN, and maybe GLA and EDI, but never mind they are north of Watford anyway

[MANFOD]

Air India introducing a 3rd daily Delhi flight from 1st November, flight operates using a 777-200LR, early morning arrival and departure

And LHR is full. Still, there seems to be a good trade in slots. What puzzles me slightly is if there are slots to purchase, why are some airlines keen to sell?

Maybe for Liverpool and a couple of others that may get the odd shuttle to connect from, but I cannot see a single benefit for BHX, MAN, and maybe GLA and EDI, but never mind they are north of Watford anyway

No, me neither, but hey, don't forget the trickle-down effect, and we might even get an extra shuttle to help feed those new long haul routes that need our feed to make them viable

[Logohu]

why are some airlines keen to sell?

Airlines that sell their LHR slots are generally those in the "last chance saloon". Airlines who have been unable (or unwilling) to adapt to the new era of competition, who's backers have basically given up on them, and have therefore resorted to selling off the family silver to try and stay afloat. In LHR's case think Pan Am, TWA, Cyprus Airways, Balkan, Malev, BMI - anyone remember them ? They all sold off or leased out LHR slots in their later years, and the rest is history.

Another source of slots is from airlines who have worked out they can make more money from leasing out their slots to another airline, instead of operating their own flights with them. A fairly recent example there would be Qantas who lease out at least two pairs of LHR slots to another airline (can't remember which - either BA or Emirates maybe ?). SAS has recently been selling LHR slots, as did Air Serbia (formerly JAT).

[LN-KGL]

What puzzles me slightly is if there are slots to purchase, why are some airlines keen to sell?

Some airlines may need the money to keep afloat, and with the price war now going on between CPH and LON we may see more SAS slots for sale.

[Fairdealfrank]

Sorry Frank

This is rhetoric - What is the real evidence especially through Heathrow and with relation to the London markets - One of the top 3 on the planet.

Again what are these LHR routes that survive ONLY because of connections.

Names please.

Probably commercially sensitive information for each carrier, but could speculate: most of the north American routes apart from the major cities, ditto European routes, most african routes. Additionally, BLR, HYD, MAA, MEX are often mentioned. Judging by the way BA shifts some routes between terminals, maybe the routes depending on connections vary over time and possibly seasons. The point is that the presence of these routes benefits O&D pax.

The carriers are housed together (in the main) for alliance convenience not disputed.

Only necessary and convenient if there is a significant amount of transferring pax.

Frank also noted and stated with reference to the ONLY EU HUB that come close to the US model and yes that is Amsterdam .

Wrong again, did not mention "EU hub" or "US model". Just made the comparison between LHR and AMS for numbers of transfer pax.

It might be quicker to name those routes that could survive unscathed if 35% of their passengers, on average, disappeared.

Indeed, though did a little speculation above.

Extricating any Government investment in The North is like pulling teeth compared to monies seen as a given in the South East. We may get all watery eyed when the relative pitence of a few million is spent on the Manchester – Leeds railway line but it is as nothing to the billions signed off on a whim for projects down South.
That said, If as reported the Government are not prepared to bank roll the surrounding infrastructure it will be somewhat academic.

Despite being obviously correct on the need for more spending in the north, you are always selective with the information, Bagso. You never mention that infrastructure projects in and around London are part funded by business rates supplements and/or by the "mayoral community levy", plus, in the case of rail, much higher fares generally. This is not the case in the rest of the UK. Also ratepayers in Greater London will be paying a precept for the Olympics for the next 50 years.

If there is a suspicion of “smoke and mirrors” and LHR does indeed have to pay for earthworks beyond the M25 I’m not sure where that leaves the project anyway. HAL might have a seemingly endless pot of money but would that extend to what is currently an unaccounted budget figure of a min’ £5Bn on roads /rail etc OR like a few us do they think these costs might fall into an open ended bottom less pit, hence the CEOs insistence on getting the Government to fully underwrite this particular part of the project ? ….oh not forgetting that extra £500m heading North of the border !
Scots telling the English what to do….no wonder The Daily Mail is so exercised.

Heathrow management has the money to invest (or can attract it) and it will bring returns over time and well over the initial outlay, so this is a very good business proposition.

As for the "earthworks" on the M25, this will be required anyway, as will similar be required on the M60, when traffic reaches a certain level. All that won't happen without a third rwy is the tunnel. The A4 tunnels will happen because even without a third rwy the airport has to expand accross the A4, for LHR-6 for example, which will be needed when LHR-3 is demolished and not rebuilt.

The rail infastructure improvements will go ahead anyway as people need to be encouraged onto public transport, third rwy or not, and rail travellers other than airline pax and airport workers will benefit.

As for the SNP MPs, they now have some leverage, of course they'll use it! especially as all this appearance of "standing up for Scotland" cleverly diverts attention from the "horlicks" being made at by the Holyrood government.

..and the soon to be announced MAN route by AI cancelled, but hey, LHR expansion will be good for regional airports

[MAN's (and LBA's) links with the subcontinent are with Pakistan not India, so there's not enough O&D for a MAN-DEL route. What little there is would be very low yield VFR and that travels with EK. There was never a question of a MAN-DEL route. A business/commercial MAN-BOM route might just possibly be a different matter, but don't hold your breath.

As for AI, it gets plenty of O&D and low yield VFR on BHX-DEL, which is doing well. Had wrongly predicted that AI would mess it up and had to eat my hat as a consequence, the hat tasted good.

Airlines that sell their LHR slots are generally those in the "last chance saloon". Airlines who have been unable (or unwilling) to adapt to the new era of competition, who's backers have basically given up on them, and have therefore resorted to selling off the family silver to try and stay afloat. In LHR's case think Pan Am, TWA, Cyprus Airways, Balkan, Malev, BMI - anyone remember them ? They all sold off or leased out LHR slots in their later years, and the rest is history.


Another source of slots is from airlines who have worked out they can make more money from leasing out their slots to another airline, instead of operating their own flights with them. A fairly recent example there would be Qantas who lease out at least two pairs of LHR slots to another airline (can't remember which - either BA or Emirates maybe ?). SAS has recently been selling LHR slots, as did Air Serbia (formerly JAT).

Exactly, it's called the "secondary slot market" and based on demand outstripping supply. It keeps many carriers out of LHR to the detriment of most. A third rwy would eliminate this nonsense.

[Ringwayman]

[MAN's (and LBA's) links with the subcontinent are with Pakistan not India, so there's not enough O&D for a MAN-DEL route. What little there is would be very low yield VFR and that travels with EK. There was never a question of a MAN-DEL route. A business/commercial MAN-BOM route might just possibly be a different matter, but don't hold your breath.

Going off The Delhi route shop, there are 54000 O+D passengers on the route. The Manchester Evening News quotes airport bosses thus:

"They estimate that of the four million people from within it who fly from London, 100,000 go to Hong Kong, as well as 60,000 to Beijing, 113,000 to Bangkok, 50,000 to Delhi and 70,000 to Mumbai.".

It's the reticence of airlines to even THINK of not having to serve London to meet the UK market that hinders regional UK growth. It appears that having a non-stop CX service at MAN has not held back any operator offering connecting service there from either MAN or LHR.

Of the 5 destinations quoted in the article:

Hong Kong - on course for that
Beijing - to be announced Friday per hints in the FT
Bangkok - would probably need a low-cost long-haul operator as Thai isn't really in a fit position with appropriate aircraft to launch such a route

But combined 120,000 for Mumbai-Delhi? 328 passengers per day. Seems a very good starting point for a service knowing that launching a route normally stimulates more demand.

It's the reticence of airlines to even THINK of not having to serve London to meet the UK market that hinders regional UK growth. It appears that having a non-stop CX service at MAN has not held back any operator offering connecting service there from either MAN or LHR.

[Bagso]

Heathrow Airport expansion: A 'toxic dilemma for ministers - BBC News

Sssssssshh. ............

[Walnut]

Looking at the footprint of the land needed for R3 will IAG now move their headquarters from Waterside to a site in Spain, Madrid?

[DaveReidUK]

Originally Posted by Fairdealfrank

All that won't happen without a third rwy is the tunnel. The A4 tunnels will happen because even without a third rwy the airport has to expand across the A4, for LHR-6 for example, which will be needed when LHR-3 is demolished and not rebuilt.

That's a novel concept.

It's nonsense, of course - the T3 footprint will be replaced by the final bunch of T2 satellites to complete the "toast-rack" configuration.

Unless you're suggesting that all Heathrow's operators are going to switch to A380s, terminal capacity south of the Bath Road will be more than enough to handle all the traffic that a 2-runway airport would generate.

[eggc]

Frank, AI at MAN was loaded into GDS, flight numbers, days and times. It disappeared some days ago, obviously when they secured the addition LHR slots instead.

[MANFOD]

o there's not enough O&D for a MAN-DEL route. What little there is would be very low yield VFR and that travels with EK. There was never a question of a MAN-DEL route. A business/commercial MAN-BOM route might just possibly be a different matter, but don't hold your breath.

Frank, just to back up Ringwayman's point, at a presentation I attended about 2 years ago, Mumbai and Delhi were 6th and 7th in a list of underserved or unserved long haul destinations from MAN. In fact, they were a few positions above Jeddah which now has a 4 x weekly service. I'd be surprised if that situation has changed dramatically since then.

Again, to support Ringwayman's point that new services stimulate demand, Saudia have averaged 230 pax per flight over the last 3 months. CX has already clocked up over 101,000 pax in the 9 and a half months since the 4 x weekly flights commenced during December last year with some very impressive LFs.

New York was top of the list as an underserved long haul route and the new services provided by Delta and TCX plus extra capacity from AA this summer has produced 76,000 pax to JFK & EWR in the last 2 months.

So yes, I'm disappointed if it turns out that AI has cancelled plans for MAN because it has got slots at LHR for a third daily flight.

[Prophead]

Many of the passengers using Manchester are coming from areas all over the north as it has such a large catchment area for long haul flights. The choice for many people in the north is Manchester or Heathrow.

These people will choose to use a shuttle service from the likes of LBA and connect at LHR rather than drive to MAN once R3 is built. People are already using the BA flights from LBA rather than going to MAN. Anyone that has had to slog over the M62 in winter in the early hours will know this is a preferred option.

It is simple supply and demand. The airlines spend a lot of money researching new routes and if they choose LHR over MAN then that should tell you everything you need to know.

The fact that the Manchester Airport management and enthusiasts are so worried about the effect R3 will have shows that it will be successful in providing for those in the northern regions.

This thread seems to be more about Manchester than Heathrow lately.

[MANFOD]

These people will choose to use a shuttle service from the likes of LBA and connect at LHR rather than drive to MAN once R3 is built. People are already using the BA flights from LBA rather than going to MAN. Anyone that has had to slog over the M62 in winter in the early hours will know this is a preferred option.

That's an interesting assertion although it may well be partially correct.

Firstly, if you read the Leeds thread, you will see that LBA is not considered the most easily accessible of airports, especially in winter and with its overall weather record.

Secondly, there is actually quite a good train service from Leeds, Huddersfield and York direct to MAN which seem to do pretty good business, so driving across the M62 is not necessarily the only option.

Thirdly, MAN 's long haul passenger figures at the moment continue to grow, and I suspect a fair few come from Yorkshire despite the availability of shuttles to LHR from LBA.

All that said, I am a little concerned at the potential risks R3 at LHR would pose for MAN in terms of restricting growth or even reducing some long haul services or frequencies, unlike those who claim it would have no or negligible effect.

However, I don't see how you can assert MAN management "are so worried" about R3, as they have adopted a fairly restrained approach in public comment during the Davies Commission and in its aftermath to-date.

[eggc]

I understand what your saying prophead - to a point, but what we are looking at is solution to LHR overcrowding. MAN can provide a part solution to this, as can Birmingham too, as in the case of the above mentioned now cancelled AI. That could have easily flown from MAN, freeing up that pair of slots at LHR, and MAN handling the hundreds of pax per day that would use it, and also giving people of the north a chance to use a northern airport rather than treck to LHR / AMS / FRA or CDG. Same could be said of other routes, each one that flew from MAN/BHX would ease LHR just a little. LHR is full, MAN/BHX are not, there is demand from north of Watford, but we add to the weight placed on LHR by forcing folk through it. It just makes no sense, to me anyway.

[Prophead]

Firstly, if you read the Leeds thread, you will see that LBA is not considered the most easily accessible of airports, especially in winter and with its overall weather record.

I would say it is more easily accessible than Manchester for the catchment area it would serve if there are also domestic flights from the likes of Doncaster, Humberside and Teeside. The areas from Bradford to York and Ripon to Leeds all have fairly easy access to LBA.

Secondly, there is actually quite a good train service from Leeds, Huddersfield and York direct to MAN which seem to do pretty good business, so driving across the M62 is not necessarily the only option.

The train service is quite good and I used it a few times but you need to be near the train line to make it work. Otherwise its a change at Leeds. When you have just come off a long haul flight the last thing you need is to be lugging suitcases around and changing trains Most people would rather get a taxi to/from the local airport then a 45 minute flight.

The shuttle has been around a while now, I used it every week last year and there seemed to be more and more people going through to connecting flights. I'm not sure how its been doing lately as I don't use it any more. I would say however that should R3 go ahead the shuttle service connection will be streamlined and tickets probably sold within the long haul ticket enabling flights form say LBA to LAX to be advertised at one price rather than the package being put together separately.

For this to be a success it would need to be opened up to operators other than BA and would suit someone such as Flybe.