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Is aviation in Africa really unsafe?

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Is aviation in Africa really unsafe?

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Old 11th Jun 2011, 16:22
  #61 (permalink)  
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So when does the new thread entitled 'Is aviation in India really unsafe?' start?
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Old 12th Jun 2011, 06:22
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A possible solution would be to privatise the CAA's in each country. And run them as company's. Similar to the South African CAA model, but more removed from the politics.


If one could de-politisize these organisations then one may get an organisation that is commercially motivated and not politically motivated.

They would have to be funded by fuel surcharges, over flight fees etc. I know that this increases the costs of aviation in Africa but it may be the price one has to pay for progress.

The handover of power from goverment to privat CAA's would have to happen on a macro political level, as there would be too much temptation for interference by polititians to try keep those fuel surcharges for themselves. Not to mention appointing ones buddies to what would be a potentially lucrative company position.

There would have to be some sort of international oversight body to keep checks and balances in place.

One thing that Africa does not need is simply a blanket implimentation of EASA/JAR ops, like what happend in Kenya recently, which almost legislated general aviation out of existance in that country. Africa has very different needs and abilities compared to Europe and America and any new policy implimentations would have to be sensitive to this.

DRPAM007

The cold war also led to the decimation of the real brains and leaders in the group; K.Nkrumah, P. Lumumba, J.Kenyatta, etc.
Sir, at first I thought that you were joking by posting this statement. Then I realised you believe it to be true, which made me think that you clearly have never visted the country's that were once run by these 3 people.

If you had you would have seen the resulting detritus of these mens political and economic contributions to their countries.

They may have been wiley polititians but I would hestiate to say that they had 'brains' in the sense that you meant it.
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Old 12th Jun 2011, 20:34
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Maxrated,
Thanks for a great post with intruiging ideas that will make for a healthy debate. We may not agree on all issues but "Where there are no wise suggestions, purposes come to nothing; but by a number of wise guides they are made certain."
(apologies, in a bit of a rush but I shall make time and bring my thoughts to light).
Your feedback is really appreciated.
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Old 13th Jun 2011, 22:45
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DRPAM007

Looking forward in this regard.
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Old 20th Jun 2011, 02:33
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Max, I haven't forgotten the angle you raised. I'll make time and address as agreed. Meanwhile, I'll just like to throw in a few more factors into the aviation safety equation viz:

1.Poor economic regulation

I believe there are serious instances of poor economic regulation of airlines by the various CAA's in Africa. This scenario becomes obvious when the airlines Begin to owe staff salaries and unable to service their daily operational cost items such as fuel, overnight subsidence expenses for crew, landing, parking and navigation fees.

This results in atmosphere of insecurity and uncertainty. Leading to undue stress and commercial pressure the technical crew that can translate into degraded levels of safety.

2.Lack of adequate labour laws or enforcement

There are instances where local labour laws do not provide safety nets to prevent unethical and unfair practices against employees of safety critical private organizations like airlines;loss of license insurance, medical cover, pension, advocacy groups, union representation, unbiased conflict resolution processes e.t.c. Some cases where these laws exist, the employers flout them with impunity. A scenario where there is no enployee engagement and group synergy provides the perfect environment for the emergence of latent pathogens.

3. Absence of any social welfare system.
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Old 20th Jun 2011, 06:10
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You also have to consider that the value of human life, to an African, is substantially less than to the average European. The idea of risk assessment is an alien concept.

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Old 20th Jun 2011, 06:38
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I think you could sum up the problem by saying that aviation is meant for use in a disciplined, relatively wealthy environment. To try to foster it in undisciplined, flat broke Africa means that failure is a given.

You get operators trying to run machinery that requires regular, expensive servicing without budgeting for that, using operators who do not get regular, expensive recurrent training, overseen by corrupt governments.

Here, you really have to ask if there is a safety problem? A quick look at the accident statistics shows that, doesn't it? The rest is just discussion of the flamin' obvious.

In the First World we do stuff that makes no sense to an African of a certain stripe, taking apart a perfectly functioning machine and throwing away perfectly good parts, just because some stupid sheet of paper says 'At 3000 hours you must exchange the knurled frabulators.' Well, given that the knurled frabulators cost 10 thousand dollars each and that they are working just fine, plus that there are two of them, why not just pencil-whip that item and carry on until one of the two breaks? Ah-henh! And then, if there is still no money in the knurled frabulator replacement budget, you carry on until the other one breaks. At that point either you are lucky and it turns out that the knurled frabulator is not as safety-critical as the manufacturer seemed to think or else you have some sort of accident. At that point you go out of the airline business with immediate effect to retreat until the dust settles.

Of course one must take into account that I am a total racist prick even to think this, let alone write it. On the other hand, I have seen a Boeing 737 operating during the hours of darkness with no, zero, position lights for a period of days. Okay, the beacons were operating, otherwise I would be lying to say that I had seen the aircraft, instead of just seeing a black outline where it was, but still.... I am sure the crew were under threat of being sacked if they did not fly without the required lights but in the First World such a thing is unthinkable. In Africa worse things happen all the time.

To fly, instead of to travel by mammy wagon or ox cart, is inherently expensive. The way the game is run in Nigeria, for instance, means that people can travel below the real cost of properly-run air travel, when this is done in various ways. At some point inevitable reality catches up, when either there is a crash or an operator goes bust, and Nigeria has run through something like 30 airlines in recent history, many departing the scene after some horrific accidents.

The latest, Arik, is in prolonged death throes when it was obviously doomed from the start, with the next one already in the starting blocks ready to repeat the same nonsense, and so it will go until the oil money finally runs out.
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Old 20th Jun 2011, 06:58
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Of course one must take into account that I am a total racist prick even to think this, let alone write it.
No, you are, like me, someone who has seen and who understands the realities of life and death in Africa. For expressing my views on this, I am frequently called 'racist' by the ignoranti. It doesn't worry me one iota. Racism is more in the mind of those who use the term than those towards whom it is directed.
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Old 20th Jun 2011, 09:01
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Yes, but...

Once you can smear someone with a label such as racist, homophobe, sexist or whatever then you can ignore whatever they are trying to tell you!

For instance, I recently told a female professor that I had signed up for a workday task because I had noticed it was all young women on the sheet, that they might also need 'some muscle.' (This was going to be hard, physical labor dismantling a wooden structure.)

Of course the prof told me, 'Women have muscles too!' when I tried to explain that of course they did but that men were simply stronger when it comes to lugging stuff around, when that is down to biology. I really wanted to ask her if I was supposed to arm-wrestle her to prove my point except for two things:

1. She would probably have me thrown out of class.

2. She might have beaten me!

There are some relatively safe and successful African airlines, such as Ethiopian and SAA, which test my proposition. For every one of those, though, there must be 100 outfits that make you want to run away screaming.

I think part of the problem is this ignorance of dull reality that so many ideologues foster. They have a shining vision of equality so that they overlook obvious inequality on so many different levels. Too, if you come across with the money or at least the promise of the money, Boeing or Airbus are going to be very, very eager to jump into bed with you and help you play 'Airline.' Just look at how it went, for a while at least, between Boeing and Arik when Arik was going to be such a good customer in setting up Nigeria's premier airline.

Not so long ago, when I was dissing this shining vision of Arik, many young Nigerians were lining up behind Arik and telling me and others like me that we were not at all correct in our assumptions. I cannot remember if I was called a 'racist' in so many words, but it was a pretty clear assumption on the part of some, so that none of what I wrote was taken as reasonable.

Now, of course, we have this rather sad thread about how Arik is just a typical deadbeat, Nigerian operation, probably a money-laundering scam from the start. No one is talking much about that but I assume it must be impacting the safety of their operation to be so strapped for cash that they cannot pay their wages.

Proof of something or other is that Arik is allowed to continue to operate, passing reviews and checks with no problems found despite news of such chaos in the machinery. Is it reasonable to assume that each and every safety-related item is being looked after despite pervasive tales of 'no money?' This is why a First World operator would have seen their AOC yanked long ago in such a situation.
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Old 20th Jun 2011, 22:11
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Good points made by Chuks and Capetonian me thinks.

DRPM007

1.Poor economic regulation

I believe there are serious instances of poor economic regulation of airlines by the various CAA's in Africa. This scenario becomes obvious when the airlines Begin to owe staff salaries and unable to service their daily operational cost items such as fuel, overnight subsidence expenses for crew, landing, parking and navigation fees.
What you are actually trying to say is that these airlines and CAA's are run badly with shockingly poor bussiness sense and appalling bussiness ethics.

Further to my previous post where I mentioned that there was no political will to fix this.


2.Lack of adequate labour laws or enforcement
Most African countries dont even enforce criminal laws so the concept of even having labour laws would be a far fetched ideal at most.


Absence of any social welfare system.
I'm not sure why you imagine that a welfare system would enhance aviation safety in Africa.

The USSR was the ultimate welfare state in its day and they had an appalling avaition safety record and culture. Me thinks because in a welfare state you get to keep your job no matter how useless you are at it.


Just my 2c worth...
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Old 21st Jun 2011, 01:11
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Hello Ckuks,
A face from the past! Great to see you havent lost your rhetoric, logic and dry humour; (you should consider taking up writing).
I bet you're still bored without the excitement of Lagos et al. Few drivers can boast of having more aviation experience in Africa than you.
Now back to business, I'm really interested in what you'll consider as the preliminary multi- lateral steps/actions necessary towards attaining safe and sustainable airline operations in Africa. Considering the 54 countries in the region are tagged "unsafe by proximate association".
Good to hear you again.
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Old 21st Jun 2011, 11:19
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2.Lack of adequate labour laws or enforcement
In SA that would depend on which side of the fence you are. Highly restrictive labour laws are enforced to the detriment of business and quite often safety. Poor performance is often overlooked in favour of political correctness and party politicking.
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Old 21st Jun 2011, 12:55
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Ah! The Doctor!

As you know very well, Doctor, there are individuals on the African aviation scene who are quite capable, regardless of nationality, race, gender or what-have-you. Then there are those who are a hazard to themselves and others, people who really should not even be allowed out of the house without strict adult supervision. Again, we can find those regardless of nationality, etcetera.

The problem I have seen is that when there is lax regulation then you see those in the second category allowed to work as pilots, engineers, examiners and regulators. In fact, you may find that they are even more successful in the long run than the more capable people! Yes, some of them do manage to kill themselves, at least the pilots do (along with not a few of their passengers and those unfortunate enough to live in the path of their doomed aircraft), but somehow there seems to be such a large supply of them that they crowd out the capable, who are able to move on in any case.

Where else but Africa would you find someone who had just piloted a fatal flight being presented for employment with another operator? Not just that the man was not penalized for having killed a few people, but that someone in a high place was pushing for him again to be given work as a pilot! I was there when the guy was being evaluated, when I wondered why he was so darned nervous. Later I remembered where I had heard his name, when the penny dropped. In the States or Europe you would be out of a job after doing something like that, which must be part of the reason that the accident stats are so very different.

When I think about it, it is not a question of 'locals versus ex-pats,' as many seem to think. I can count off more than a few accidents which were down to ex-pat crew, so that I think it comes down to lax safety regulation, with aviation simply reflecting the way a society as a whole either functions or malfunctions.

Proof of this, in a way, is that you can take a local out, put him in a First World environment and find that he succeeds there, but put an ex-pat into the African environment and find that he fails there. That might show that the problem lies in the environment more than in the individuals operating in that environment.
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Old 21st Jun 2011, 16:29
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hi

most of us said that they are navigation systems but that also not working properly or dead. but I guess I didnt find anyone saying an aeronautical chart. dose not Africa issue an aeronautical chart? dont you all use aeronautical charts while flying when you loose VOR, NDB, VORTAC, etc.
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Old 21st Jun 2011, 16:55
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The only reason why we lose the VOR is when someone is walking away with it....

Can I ask you, how we are supposed to use charts while in solid IMC around mountians?
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Old 21st Jun 2011, 22:53
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Great stuff Chuks, sad but true!

Well, I couldn't agree with you more. The regulator is expected to drive the system. Though most countries Claim to have autonomous CAA's, some of them are still tied to the "political apron strings" of the politicians that appoint the Director Generals or bosses of the regulatory agency. Depressed economies need tighter controls to ensure compliance, and Africa is not quite ready for the philosophy of self regulation. Even where a policy and legal framework exists, the implementation is deeply flawed. Reasons: political interference and lack of skilled competent personnel.
Most of the locally regulated airlines cannot be trusted to maintain the proper balance between economics and safety. The environment breeds complacency which easily leads to reckless disregard for safe practices. Considering th level of infrastructure, Africa is not ready for blanket free market driven private sector liberalization of aviation. A lot of the countries have signed open skies agreements without considering the far reaching consequences for the indigenous industry. My guess is when the competition finally takes advantage of the open skies, the only African airlines that will survive are those, that are members of IATA's three alliances. The short term result is the governements will lose strategic control of their aviation sectors. There will be a lot of aviating, but it'll neither result in transfer of skills for the region nor add to the GDP of the continent. In summary; capital flight on a colossal scale. The long term result will be; Africa' s participation in aviation will only be as a market; providing passengers. Without local airlines, and no indigenous skilled personnel. Pilots, engineers, controllers, etc will all be extinct. Currently, Asia pacific region is ready to absorb anyone with 2500 hrs on a commercial jet. From Boeings estimate, they'll need 24 new pilots everyday to cope the the total demand projected at 180,300 in 2029. Africa isn't training enough to meet their current manpower needs not to mention the extra projected 13,200 required by 2029. Who knows, there may no need for them. The leaders are probably oblivious to the strategic effect of aviation to economic development. 25 years ago the industry looked promising for the AFI region, now it is doubtful. The industry is technologically driven. Training with outdated technology is no training at all. Our 727 and DC-10 engineering geniuses are now completetly behind the drag curve.

Aviation design, manufacture, testing, maintenance , training and even operating may become elusive unless of course sanity prevails......

Thanks guys for all your input and comments.
NB flying4love, I'm sorry but I didn't quite understand your question/comment

Last edited by DRPAM007; 21st Jun 2011 at 23:18.
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Old 22nd Jun 2011, 07:25
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Ground-based navaids....

Modern integrated GPS-based nav systems can replace ground-based aids with very little difference seen by the crew.

For instance, you can fly what looks exactly like an ILS approach using the VNAV function, with the only difference being that the guidance symbols are shown in magenta instead of green.

If you are asked to report over a VOR or an NDB then you can identify that point very easily using your GPS, and never mind if the actual navaid is working or not. This means that you can use the same chart for the navaids when using the GPS.

Problems come in with legality, though. It is not always allowed to substitute the GPS signal for the actual navaid. Not least, you may not get a warning if the GPS signal becomes degraded while doing that pseudo-ILS; not all systems can do that.

One time in Lagos, the LA beacon was stolen, carted away in the middle of the night by thieves who killed the watchman. This sort of stuff usually goes in the 'Only in Africa" thread, though.
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Old 22nd Jun 2011, 14:59
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Yes - You Know You're In Africa when you're branded a racist pr*ck for telling the truth.

Guess that makes all of us realists racists, then.
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Old 23rd Jun 2011, 08:40
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I had a confrontation yesterday with one of these lefty liberal types ........

It started over a dog ..... I took a friend’s Rhodesian Ridgeback for a walk and this young woman comes over to me in the park and starts stroking the dog, asked me what sort it is. “You mean a Zimbabwean Ridgeback .... “ she says.

So I gave her the full history. To give her credit, she sat and listened to me without interrupting. Then she told me I was a racist ..... to which I replied with my usual : “It would be more helpful if you tried to understand why many of us who’ve lived in Africa are racist, as you call it.”

Needless to say she'd never even set foot in Africa but of course was an 'expert' on the topic. They make me sick.
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Old 23rd Jun 2011, 09:56
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Heh.
I had a similar experience talking about old times and when I was working in Rhodesia.
"You mean Zimbabwe".
"No I dont mean Zimbabwe, the place I worked in was called Rhodesia, they changed the name after I left."
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