as to the seats colors :, the BEA said :
I think they would not make this statement if they had a little more evidence , as to the color ,interiors upholstery also change from time to time on old aircraft especially, do not take an old video as proof...

Anyway if you read carefully the AAIB statement , they have radar data well below 2300ft and are likely to find the wreckage , ( or the bits and pieces it it hit the water with high velocity )
The seats cushions will soon become irrelevant ..

I'd agree with the above. I think it's a matter of days now.

This isn't MH370 and the drink ain't exactly deep. Sonar ship will find it in hours (but will probably take longer Rolls eyes). Though wx is prohibiting commencement until end of week apparently.

I'd not read too much into that silence Eutychus; I think what this has brought home to so many is that the world of "grey charters" of various guises is, in fact, far more widespread than the majority of us ever imagined. Yes, we've all probably had suspicions on odd occasions, maybe when seeing a light aircraft depart in marginal conditions with some smartly dressed occupants from any one of the many dozens of airfields and even private strips in the UK. But, usually, you have no real idea of the circumstances surrounding the flight so you have little grounds for intervening as a bystander. But this sad event has turned the spotlight on this area and more and more one feels that what one maybe sees is only a small part of the story – who really knows?

Now, while I totally understand that the C.I.s are far more heavily dependent on aviation for day to day life (I’m no longer flying there myself sadly) whether ACI/GCI/JER are any more “wild west” than, say, the half dozen big GA fields around London is very hard to say.

You have clearly used the occasion to educate yourself which is fantastic, both for yourself and for those who maybe rely on you. However, I think the only way this genie will be at least partially curbed is (a) by Insurers and, for rental aircraft, (b) by CFIs at Flying Clubs taking a far closer interest in what is happening. The latter check will not curb misuse of privately owned aircraft and, one could argue, if you are breaking the rules in knowingly operating an illegal charter using your own or a friend-of-a-friend’s aircraft, the mere fact you are invalidating the insurance is probably not going to worry those doing so. Just one more illegal act in a flurry of illegality is hardly going to cause such people sleepless nights! In due course, back that up with (c) clearer legislation but (a) and (b) will certainly make a dent in the problem that seems to be out there.

A thought. Just maybe Emiliano has done far, far more for many, many people in the future than he could ever have imagined he could have. While, sadly, he may never thrill the crowds on the pitch or become that International player or whatever his career held in store, just maybe, as a result of this and any changes that come out of it (which I hope they do) he will have helped prevent other deaths and even more importantly, those many unreported “near misses” which escape from being an accident by the closest of margins. His name being linked to this has certainly raised this thread’s profile with even non-aviation friends of mine asking me about it. Small consolation for his friends and family I know – but if it had been me as pax that night instead, this thread would have ended on Page 2 - as did the thread on Dave and Simon in Spain. H 'n' H

Perhaps bodies will be recovered. If so, we can mention that fact then. Until the recovery of a body is news, let's demonstrate courtesy by leaving that topic undiscussed.

Pilot DAR ... I've seen no mention of bodies so far in this thread, ... that is, until you mentioned them. I believe we all, already know how to be courteous in this regard.

Excellent, 'cause I deleted the posts discussing bodies, they were too technical to be appropriate to this forum.

...... to put in mildly! It's 2 poor people we are talking about here. Good delete IMHO!

I saw some interesting and (to me) surprising statistics on an AOPA video recently. I was surprised to see that VFR into IMC is almost as dangerous for instrument rated pilots as for non IR pilots. I guess that was based on USA data, and it might be due to a mix of rusty skills and aircraft not always ideally set-up for IFR. But essentially the message was that statistically, a VFR flight plan that unexpectedly enters IMC is at very (very) high risk regardless of other factors.

Given the weather, would we not have expected an appropriately qualified pilot to file an IFR flight plan? Skimming back through this thread, I cannot see evidence of whether or not that was done, but the fact that he was messing around at 2,500' over water strongly suggests to me (with zero personal experience) that he was trying (hoping) for VFR all the way. That in turn says that pilot capability was by far the biggest risk factor at the start of this flight, the fact that it was single engine over water would seem to be a very minor concern in comparison. That was a damned nice plane! I am sure I will never get to fly anything like that!

TRUTHSEEKER1 It is always safer for a VFR-only pilot to remain VMC - that is obvious and doesn't need asking.

The issue in this case is that, over water and under overcast - it is possible/probable that there was zero exterior reference. Thus, whilst legally VMC, of no useful purpose.

A friend of mine (completely legally) teaches IMC flying in VFR only aircraft. He achieves this by going out over the Canadian prairie on overcast nights - no stars, no ground illumination. VMC conditions (so flight is legal) but you might as well paint the windscreen with black paint for all you can see through it...

Best sum up :ok:

The question was : " Would you think it is safer for a VFR pilot to go up into IMC than try to stay VFR below the crud? " This again is a supposition because it is unknown whether Dave Ibbotson has an IMC or Instrument Rating? ( emphasis on the question was )

Now it has been confirmed that Dave Ibbotson has/had an expired IMCr with no Instrument flying experience other than occasional cloud contact when parachute dropping which is legally a VFR only activity I will readdress the question : " Would you think it is safer for a EXPIRED IMCr pilot to go up into IMC than try to stay VFR below the crud? " Now on supposition it is rumoured that the de-ice systems on N264DB was U/S so this flight didn't have that option to climb, the question asked is based on a fully serviceable aircraft being capable of FIKI.

Quite a few VFR pilots get caught out by unforeseen weather, so there is a real chance that some readers on here will have firsthand experience of this.......some have got away with it and live to tell the tale & some haven't.
At this juncture it would be best if we all stick to the subject in hand.

This.

The regulations have a well known gap when it comes to night flying; It is possible (and certain over long stretches of water) that in night VMC conditions, there will be little or no visual reference from the surface. Arguably, the requirement for VFR flight to maintain visual contact with the surface would be hard to prove sometimes - yeah, I know it's down there, but I can't actually see it. Is that actually flight in VMC? Not really.

Let alone the poor weather conditions associated with this accident, the flight would still have been challenged even on a clear night. JFK Jr. had an accident in very clear conditions over water at night as a result of loss of situational awareness. There was "get there itis" involved, and low experience in a well capable airplane. Only pilot decision making improvements will make this better. In the mean time, eagerness to provide a VFR transportation service in other than clear day conditions should be viewed with great skepticism.

TRUTHSEEKER1 Your question referred to 'a VFR pilot', if you had written 'Dave Ibbotson" then that is a different question with a potentially different answer. Your updated question now refers to 'EXPIRED IMCr pilot' - is that your question, or are you actually (again?) asking about Dave Ibbotson specifically?

The question can be a broadsheet question that both relates to any EXPIRED IMCr pilot or specifically Dave Ibbotson, however it wasn't an attempt to specifically single out Dave Ibbotson.

As has been shown 'everyone' is learning from this bulletin board, you have learnt that some of your flights in Canada could be deemed illegal ( thankfully nobody has to investigate those flights ) I learnt that my ears play tricks on me overwater because I become more adept to sounds :ok:

As this is an ongoing investigation I am led to believe that there is going to be a hell of a lot of explaining to do about why an IFR FPL was filed & then changed to a VFR FPL?
There is also a lot of confusion over how competent airport officials seem to think the paperwork of Dave Henderson was submitted for checking when he claims he hasn't been to Nantes in the last year?

We can all read between the lines, nobody can really explain that at this time but it seems that the CAA & AAIB have insight into what they think is the answer to that conundrum.

This looks like the biggest cover up ever ! So if we break it down paragraph by paragraph it might get a bit more clarity.
A highly experienced pilot chartered by football agent Willie McKay to fly new Emiliano Sala from France to Wales drafted in a 'rusty' part-time replacement for the job, it was revealed today.
Willie McKay chartered David Henderson to do the flights with Emiliano Sala onboard, but David Henderson subcontracted the flights to Dave Ibbotson ( the buck stops with David Henderson )
The Piper Malibu carrying Cardiff City's new £15million signing vanished over the Channel Islands on Monday January 21 after hitting bad weather en route to Wales from France.
David Henderson is reported as being Instrument Rated so capable of making such a flight & contracted to conduct the flights but he elected to put a non instrument rated pilot in the aircraft who was incapable of completing such a flight. ( the buck stops with David Henderson )
Mr McKay wanted his usual pilot David Henderson, 60, to carry the Argentinian striker to Britain but he drafted in David Ibbotson, 59, after asking him: 'Do you want to spend a weekend in Nantes?'
The McKays employ David Henderson regularly by reference to 'usual pilot' but now they must be asking themselves how many David Henderson's have actually flown on their behalf ( I assume not every flight has a McKay onboard so how would they know who was the pilot )
Mr Ibbotson, a boiler engineer and part-time pilot, told a friend he was 'a bit rusty' with the instruments of the 35-year-old aircraft and it did not have the licence to carry paying passengers.
Still it remains unanswered why David Henderson's ID was shown at Nantes Airport? it still remains unexplained why an IFR Flightplan was filed
Describing the time period since, Mr McKay, a mega-agent renowned for his contacts in France, told l'Equipe sports newspaper that it has 'been an absolute nightmare for us.'

He said that if he had not allowed Sala to return to his old club, Nantes, to say goodbye to his former teammates and put his beloved dog Nala in kennels 'he would still be with us'.
Not sure what control McKay has/had to tell a grown man that he cannot go to Nantes to say " goodbye" to his mates & bow wow.
Cardiff offered him a commercial flight for the trip, but Mr McKay offered him a private plane 'for free'.
There is no such thing as a 'free trip' someone paid someone.
Mr Ibboston, who was known to have financial problems, is said to have told Mr Henderson that he had lost his credit card.
That may be true but it doesn't explain personal ID documents being checked?
This led to Mr Henderson having to pay for Mr Ibbotson's hotel in France, and for the flight itself.
That may be true but it doesn't explain Dave Henderson's personal ID documents being shown everywhere?
Mr Henderson's details were accordingly given to officials at Nantes-Atlantique airport, leading to initial fears that he had been piloting the doomed flight.
That may be true but it doesn't explain Dave Henderson's personal ID documents being checked at the airport as well as Dave Ibbotson's?
'Since it was Henderson's bank card, everyone thought he was on the plane,' said Willie McKay.
I smell a festering turd here.

(A1) It is rumoured that Dave Ibbotson was being paid £100 per hour? ( I am guessing that was a rate per flying hour & not per hour spent sitting on his tush in Nantes? ) & that all expenses covered ( Thus DH Credit Card )
(A2) The chances are that the flight would have been legal if Dave Henderson was the PIC, it really depends on who owns the aircraft or who loaned it to WMcK & DH?
(A3) If the Malibu belonged to WMcK or family & DH is his personal pilot it would most likely be deemed a legal flight.
(A4) It would seem there is a lot of confusion as WMcK has said DH is his personal pilot, but of what aircraft is DH the personal pilot if WMcK denies owning any aircraft? It will be very irrational if N264DB is anyway connected to WMcK that he would say he had no part in the selection of the pilot or the aircraft when admitted he employed DH to fly Emiliano Sala back & forth?
(A5) It has not yet been proven that Dave Ibbotson has flown other footballers previously, it might have been DH who flew them seeing as he is purported to be WMcK's personal pilot.

I am beginning to think "Truthseeker" is looking for a conspiracy where none exists. This is a forum, I thought, for pilots to discuss topical matters.

Here's what I understand and I don't think this is in question. Dave Ibbotson had flown a number of ferry flights. Including via Goose Bay/ Narsarsuaq - not a route for the faint hearted or inexperienced, forgetting the ticket in his hand for a moment. Yes, I know that is relevant but the ticket isn't the skill. I know an ex CFI who no longer flies but I'd have him sat next to me in preference to anyone else if I needed assistance on a flight.

There's been a lot of talk about SEP flying over the Channel. I do it a lot myself. Sometimes in rubbish weather sometimes not. According to all the stats I can find, SEP is pretty safe with (before this) 3 fatalities in 50 years between Channel Islands and UK (Wikipedia). I was in Alderney the day before and weather was not wonderful. Let's drop all the SEP part of the conversation.

Fact: Pilot was very low at night in poor viz with an Instrument approach inevitable at Cardiff. Not sure what the freeze level was but almost certainly around 3,000 feet. From Casquets, you'd expect to glide to Alderney coast from 2,300 feet, although probably not with heavy ice build up.

If this was a car crash, we'd be talking about bad luck or bad judgement or both. I'm afraid no matter what the rating of the Pilot, he self evidently made some poor choices and left a minimal margin for error. He either then got bad luck which often follows bad judgement or some of the following airframe icing (highly likely)/ Engine Failure or power loss/ Possible pilot incapacitation/ Leans or a combination of all three. That is not going to end well at any stage of a flight over land or sea.

Most of us would have stayed put that night and not ventured on that route in that aircraft at that time. And that's why the accident stats are as good as they are.

This is a very very sad tale of confidence exceeding capability.