Ukraine Crisis 2014
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Streetwise Professor: Merkel: No Military Solution in Ukraine. Putin: Really? It’s Working for Me!
.......Back in 2008-2009, I asked whether the situation was more like the 70s (the optimistic view, such as it was) or the 30s (the pessimistic one). I think the answer is now clear. We are in 30s mode, with a craven West cringing before emboldened autocrats in both Europe and Asia.
This provides a demonstration of why history cycles. The politicians who are elected in a time of (relative) peace and prosperity are usually the least fit to keep the peace and stability. They are focused on domestic issues, and take international tranquility for granted. They point to the absence of an imminent threat, and argue that militaries can be slashed. They are masters of projection, assuming that everyone is as pacific as they, and share their desire to focus on economic issues and domestic programs and spending.
But they fail to realize that threats are endogenous. When everyone is a lamb, there is an opportunity for wolves. Predators like Putin can succeed only because stronger nations and groups of nations become soft, let slip their vigilance, drop their guard. They are full of rationales for doing so, but in the end these are just manifestations of their denial of the reality that not all people, politicians, and leaders think the same way and pursue the same ends.
So after a period of conflict, strife-weary countries turn to softer leaders who sing siren songs, who are temperamentally and constitutionally averse to conflict, who despise martial matters (and who are hence ignorant of them), and who are strategic naifs who think that every dispute can be negotiated. Appeasement is their first instinct, and their second, and their third. They believe in win-win, in give-and-take.
This creates a main chance for aggressive opportunists, especially those of a zero sum mindset. Opportunists who interpret every concession made to them as an invitation to demand more. These wolves upset the peaceful (apparent) equilibrium, ushering in a period of conflict and disorder that the lambs are utterly incapable of addressing. Populations are interrupted from their reveries, and turn to more steely leaders, and the cycle begins again.
In the meantime, however, there is much trouble, suffering, and too often, bloodshed. Ukraine is the first to suffer from this phase of the cycle. It is almost certainly not the last.
.......Back in 2008-2009, I asked whether the situation was more like the 70s (the optimistic view, such as it was) or the 30s (the pessimistic one). I think the answer is now clear. We are in 30s mode, with a craven West cringing before emboldened autocrats in both Europe and Asia.
This provides a demonstration of why history cycles. The politicians who are elected in a time of (relative) peace and prosperity are usually the least fit to keep the peace and stability. They are focused on domestic issues, and take international tranquility for granted. They point to the absence of an imminent threat, and argue that militaries can be slashed. They are masters of projection, assuming that everyone is as pacific as they, and share their desire to focus on economic issues and domestic programs and spending.
But they fail to realize that threats are endogenous. When everyone is a lamb, there is an opportunity for wolves. Predators like Putin can succeed only because stronger nations and groups of nations become soft, let slip their vigilance, drop their guard. They are full of rationales for doing so, but in the end these are just manifestations of their denial of the reality that not all people, politicians, and leaders think the same way and pursue the same ends.
So after a period of conflict, strife-weary countries turn to softer leaders who sing siren songs, who are temperamentally and constitutionally averse to conflict, who despise martial matters (and who are hence ignorant of them), and who are strategic naifs who think that every dispute can be negotiated. Appeasement is their first instinct, and their second, and their third. They believe in win-win, in give-and-take.
This creates a main chance for aggressive opportunists, especially those of a zero sum mindset. Opportunists who interpret every concession made to them as an invitation to demand more. These wolves upset the peaceful (apparent) equilibrium, ushering in a period of conflict and disorder that the lambs are utterly incapable of addressing. Populations are interrupted from their reveries, and turn to more steely leaders, and the cycle begins again.
In the meantime, however, there is much trouble, suffering, and too often, bloodshed. Ukraine is the first to suffer from this phase of the cycle. It is almost certainly not the last.
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Orac,
When you say 30's are you referring to the 'German' or 'Russian' '30's'?
Putin wants the USSR back. He's not knocking on the gates of Paris.
Don't get me wrong, I guess my opposition to any action other than economic sanctions is more pragmatic. What is a practical alternative without a full-scale NATO deployment (questions of capability aside..)? That could get real ugly, and I'm personally not prepared to follow history and risk a tragedy for mankind all over some place I know nothing or care nothing about.
The people I am sorry for, but there is no such thing as 'fair'.
When you say 30's are you referring to the 'German' or 'Russian' '30's'?
Putin wants the USSR back. He's not knocking on the gates of Paris.
Don't get me wrong, I guess my opposition to any action other than economic sanctions is more pragmatic. What is a practical alternative without a full-scale NATO deployment (questions of capability aside..)? That could get real ugly, and I'm personally not prepared to follow history and risk a tragedy for mankind all over some place I know nothing or care nothing about.
The people I am sorry for, but there is no such thing as 'fair'.
A little nearsighted Hempy, or I suppose it could be written off as a history lesson forgotten.
Australia has had some dark hours, perhaps not to the point of having its territory occupied in great numbers but dark days none the less. Had far off nations that had little knowledge or care for Australia not acted....
If as your tag says, you're from Oz, then I don't think you need worry as any heavy lifting will be accomplished by others. A strongly worded resolution from your PM should suffice.
Australia has had some dark hours, perhaps not to the point of having its territory occupied in great numbers but dark days none the less. Had far off nations that had little knowledge or care for Australia not acted....
If as your tag says, you're from Oz, then I don't think you need worry as any heavy lifting will be accomplished by others. A strongly worded resolution from your PM should suffice.
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So you are saying that repeating history and not learning from the mistakes of it is being near sighted? I suppose by that argument 2 World Wars needed to happen and we were all the better off as a species for them.
I suppose thats easy to say when you personally wont be called upon..
I suppose thats easy to say when you personally wont be called upon..
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What is a practical alternative without a full-scale NATO deployment (questions of capability aside..)?
Frankly there is a lot of other smaller countries around the globe that have professional forces that have a vested interest in making sure this doesn't become the norm.
Russia is not involved officially, this can be taken care of cleanly at this stage with some backbone and very little risk.
I suppose thats easy to say when you personally wont be called upon..
Nope, that's a young man's game. I was called upon when I was a younger lad to serve so I'm not without compassion of the mission from a firsthand perspective.
You can wring your hands only so much. The not my problem approach will fail you eventually.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
FIRST THEY CAME - PASTOR MARTIN NIEMOLLER
First they came for the Communists
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Communist
Then they came for the Socialists
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Socialist
Then they came for the trade unionists
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a trade unionist
Then they came for the Jews
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Jew
Then they came for me
And there was no one left
To speak out for me
First they came for the Communists
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Communist
Then they came for the Socialists
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Socialist
Then they came for the trade unionists
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a trade unionist
Then they came for the Jews
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Jew
Then they came for me
And there was no one left
To speak out for me
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Personally, I couldn't give a flying fcuk
if you wiped the entire half of Europe and most of Asia off the map. All I am saying this that
a. it's probably not wise to start a fight unless/until you know you are going to win. 'Probably/maybe/depending on the Politicians Will etc' doesn't cut it considering the consequences.
b. Unless you go Strategic, the West simply doesn't have the capability without at least a massive work-up time.
Pissing about with nasty words and even some little tactical manoeuvres is a waste of time.
Using my WW2 analogy, if Hitler had 300 ocean going submarines and a strategic bomber force in 1939 instead of the planned 1942, would things have turned out differently for Germany?
He was impatient. And look how that panned out. Now, it could also be argued that a quick 'bloodless' German victory followed by decades of 'cold war' may have been more preferable to how things eventuated.
In summary. Fill your boots. Don't go in half-hearted though, it'll turn to shlt for everyone.
if you wiped the entire half of Europe and most of Asia off the map. All I am saying this that
a. it's probably not wise to start a fight unless/until you know you are going to win. 'Probably/maybe/depending on the Politicians Will etc' doesn't cut it considering the consequences.
b. Unless you go Strategic, the West simply doesn't have the capability without at least a massive work-up time.
Pissing about with nasty words and even some little tactical manoeuvres is a waste of time.
Using my WW2 analogy, if Hitler had 300 ocean going submarines and a strategic bomber force in 1939 instead of the planned 1942, would things have turned out differently for Germany?
He was impatient. And look how that panned out. Now, it could also be argued that a quick 'bloodless' German victory followed by decades of 'cold war' may have been more preferable to how things eventuated.
In summary. Fill your boots. Don't go in half-hearted though, it'll turn to shlt for everyone.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
16.03 Ukraine's prime minister has rejected Putin's proposals for peace in Ukraine, saying they were an attempt to deceive the West on the eve of a Nato summit and to avoid new sanctions against Moscow.
"The real plan of Putin is to destroy Ukraine and to restore the Soviet Union," Arseniy Yatsenyuk said in a statement. "All previous agreements made with Russia - in Geneva, in Normandy, in Berlin and in Minsk - were ignored or brazenly violated by the Russian regime," he said.
EU sanctions to target Russian oil industry and strip Russia of World Cup
"The real plan of Putin is to destroy Ukraine and to restore the Soviet Union," Arseniy Yatsenyuk said in a statement. "All previous agreements made with Russia - in Geneva, in Normandy, in Berlin and in Minsk - were ignored or brazenly violated by the Russian regime," he said.
EU sanctions to target Russian oil industry and strip Russia of World Cup
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Bloody long border.
Sounds like the new sanctions if they have the balls to implement them will hit Russia hard
EU sanctions to target Russian oil industry and strip Russia of World Cup - Telegraph
Sounds like the new sanctions if they have the balls to implement them will hit Russia hard
EU sanctions to target Russian oil industry and strip Russia of World Cup - Telegraph
Strangely, stripping them of the World Cup would probably sting as much as any economic sanction.
However, the Russian economy is already on the verge of a depression and any reduction in foreign revenue from gas or oil sales will quite quickly push it over the brink - notice how they haven't turned off the spigots of their own accord (for their European customers).
Here's the problem, we are already dealing with a man who is committed to restoring the pride of what he sees as a humbled and defeated nation. If we push the entire country into a severe economic depression do you think that will soften them, or harden them into thinking they have nothing left to lose.
International brinksmanship is a difficult and dangerous game, especially when the other guy has an entire arsenal of nuclear weapons and hates you for what he sees as a) being the Cold War victor, and b) having an extravagant and cushy lifestyle compared to his own somewhat impoverished citizens.
As that noted international ambassador Elmer Fudd once said - "we need to be vewy, vewy careful".
However, the Russian economy is already on the verge of a depression and any reduction in foreign revenue from gas or oil sales will quite quickly push it over the brink - notice how they haven't turned off the spigots of their own accord (for their European customers).
Here's the problem, we are already dealing with a man who is committed to restoring the pride of what he sees as a humbled and defeated nation. If we push the entire country into a severe economic depression do you think that will soften them, or harden them into thinking they have nothing left to lose.
International brinksmanship is a difficult and dangerous game, especially when the other guy has an entire arsenal of nuclear weapons and hates you for what he sees as a) being the Cold War victor, and b) having an extravagant and cushy lifestyle compared to his own somewhat impoverished citizens.
As that noted international ambassador Elmer Fudd once said - "we need to be vewy, vewy careful".
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True, it's almost as if they have used the west to modernise their country and infrastructure after the Cold War when they had nothing and any computer technology was smuggled in....
His problem I see is if he stays on the path he is following is that the sanction will get bad to a point similar to the cold war and a populace that has had everything suddenly finding they have nothing. It's ok living and wallowing in poverty and not knowing better, but when you rise above that, it's a awfully hard step to go back to it.
The World Cup is something that will hit bring it home to the populace.
His problem I see is if he stays on the path he is following is that the sanction will get bad to a point similar to the cold war and a populace that has had everything suddenly finding they have nothing. It's ok living and wallowing in poverty and not knowing better, but when you rise above that, it's a awfully hard step to go back to it.
The World Cup is something that will hit bring it home to the populace.
Since he spent $50 billion on Sochi, and God knows how much made its way into the pockets of various FIFA officials, I think he cares very much about the prospect of losing the World Cup. Given where Qatar's oil money is turning up, such as Hamas, and the deaths of so many construction workers, I'd love to see the World take a stand there too.
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Since he spent $50 billion on Sochi, and God knows how much made its way into the pockets of various FIFA officials, I think he cares very much about the prospect of losing the World Cup. Given where Qatar's oil money is turning up, such as Hamas, and the deaths of so many construction workers, I'd love to see the World take a stand there too.
The ex-Communists dont get Capitalism. Look at all the Russian billionaires spending ridiculous amounts of 'their' money around the world on a whim. Take Russian oil money out of the EPL and the competition would lose half of the players. At least Western billionaires tend to invest their money back into actual growth, not pissing it up against a wall.
Do you think the average Russian has a brighter future now than he did had he lived in the USSR?
Russia wont change until after the Communists die out. It might be too late by then to change direction though.
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We are talking about the country that beat Nazi Germany, that got all the way to Berlin. I hardly think a few western sanctions are going to make the Russian people turn against their own government. Putin can simply point out that this is all the fault of the west, that Washington and its collection of puppets want to destroy Russia, which they do. Its all part of Washington's desire to rule the world. I really hope we see a total collapse of the American Empire in the coming years.
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I would imagine the Russians have some forces in Ukraine. But then again them being in Ukraine is no different to the west invading Iraq. The west did not even try and hide what it was doing there. Also Libya, waging an air war so terrorists can take over the country and removing Gaddafi from power, what a disaster that was. They even wanted to do the same in Syria but Russia stopped them (likely the coup in Kiev was punishment for stopping the planned war in Syria) The west have no moral high ground to talk at all. The arrogance is astounding really. At least the Russians are operating in an area that was part of Russia and has Russian people living there who wish to be part of Russia again.
I would imagine the Russians have some forces in Ukraine.
But then again them being in Ukraine is no different to the west invading Iraq.
Edited to add: And I quote: On 8 November 2002, the Security Council passed Resolution 1441 by a unanimous 15–0 vote; Russia, China, France, and Arab states such as Syria voted in favor, giving Resolution 1441 wider support than even the 1990 Gulf War resolution.
The west did not even try and hide what it was doing there.
Also Libya, waging an air war so terrorists can take over the country and removing Gaddafi from power, what a disaster that was.
They even wanted to do the same in Syria but Russia stopped them
At least the Russians are operating in an area that was part of Russia and has Russian people living there who wish to be part of Russia again.
Last edited by melmothtw; 4th Sep 2014 at 11:59.