NEWCASTLE - 8
Join Date: May 2013
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Simonwa I had throught exactly the same thing, they are tremendous figures. I hadn't realised taht the load factors were so high though, I mustn't have put 2+2 together and realised that they're just 1 weekly flights. Emirates' loads may have had something to do with the commonwealth games because GLA was reportedly fully booked for the month... Then again they had a 1% drop for August 2014 so I dunno....
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Simonwa I had throught exactly the same thing, they are tremendous figures. I hadn't realised taht the load factors were so high though, I mustn't have put 2+2 together and realised that they're just 1 weekly flights. Emirates' loads may have had something to do with the commonwealth games because GLA was reportedly fully booked for the month... Then again they had a 1% drop for August 2014 so I dunno....
EI-BUD, I think the reason behind the BHD drops is that the schedule is terrible, there is now only 1 mid day flight from NCL-BHD and back each day, whereas EZY has morning and evening flights, lets just hope they don't go and bugger than one up like they have done Bristol for at least this winter season. Apologies to those with an EZY soft spot but it would almost seem that they are looking for excuses as to why their routes cannot work, particularly from NCL. I know they can make MORE money from wherever else, but 200,000+ passengers per year is not a small drop in the water for Newcastle.
EI-BUD, I think the reason behind the BHD drops is that the schedule is terrible, there is now only 1 mid day flight from NCL-BHD and back each day, whereas EZY has morning and evening flights, lets just hope they don't go and bugger than one up like they have done Bristol for at least this winter season. Apologies to those with an EZY soft spot but it would almost seem that they are looking for excuses as to why their routes cannot work, particularly from NCL. I know they can make MORE money from wherever else, but 200,000+ passengers per year is not a small drop in the water for Newcastle.
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Crying shame, I wonder if EI might do BHD, things could work out for the best if they pushed BD and EZY (not that they'd need much pushing) off the route. Either that or they work side by side with BD, not completely irrational to think something like that could happen. What future does BRS have? FR? Doubt it.
Despite these 4th aircraft rumours I don't think EZY care about us anymore, too much money to be made congesting the south.
EDIT: To be fair I just checked and most days are 3 daily, only Saturday is 1 daily so it's quite good really, but I despair regarding BRS and LGW.
Despite these 4th aircraft rumours I don't think EZY care about us anymore, too much money to be made congesting the south.
EDIT: To be fair I just checked and most days are 3 daily, only Saturday is 1 daily so it's quite good really, but I despair regarding BRS and LGW.
Last edited by EK77WNCL; 20th Sep 2014 at 16:54.
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Yaaaayyyyy!!!!! Will the fares come down so I can use it without having to ask my parents to re mortgage the house 
But seriously, do they still have the Brussels Airlines agreement? And if they can make it work pretty much off their own back without much brand awareness, maybe LH might start the long fabled FRA route. If they can make DUS work once daily with bad timings and no connections... How hard can it be?!?!
But seriously, do they still have the Brussels Airlines agreement? And if they can make it work pretty much off their own back without much brand awareness, maybe LH might start the long fabled FRA route. If they can make DUS work once daily with bad timings and no connections... How hard can it be?!?!
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Emirates in August
Here is my offering.
Data from the CAA, libhomeradar, The EK source and planespotters.net
The August load factor was actually higher according to my calculations = 85%
You can read this in one of two ways: -
1) Very good as 85% is higher than 78% or
2) Bad, as the flight was downgraded 14 times in terms of seats in a traditionally strong month (probably an upgrade for actually passengers travelling on the 3-class)
My calculations are:
34 rotations on the two class 428 seat version = 14552
16 rotations on the three class 360 seat version =5760
10 rotations on the three class 354 seat version = 3540
2 rotations on the two class 346 version (B772ER) = 692
Total = 24544 which when divided by 20831 is 85%.
How does this compare to others, Glasgow was actually down but still averaged 90% but all 354/360 seat versions.
Manchester, BHX and Manchester (93% & 94% respectively) either saw monthly records or were close. BHX saw all 428 seat aircraft, Gatwick saw 15 x 428 seat versions in a an enormous figure of over 76K and Manchester saw a few 428 seat versions.
Comparing Newcastle to the other UK routes of course is unfair as they are more mature routes and probably totally pointless without the yield data but still some food for thought.
EK77WNCL
I am not sure why the surprise at the IT long-haul load factors - what were you expecting? I would expect at least 95-98% all year round and even then I wouldn't get that excited without knowing at what price those seats were filled at.
Dusseldorf/Frankfurt
It won't take long to get a good idea of how strong Dusseldorf really is once Germanwings have been operating it for a while. The change from Lufthansa to Germanwings on BHX - Berlin destroyed the route and it was gone within six months. Hamburg has fared a little better and BHX is lucky as it has flybe on Dusseldorf.
As for Frankfurt it will need to be at least twice a day code-share to fit into the LH hub and for O & D business and have BMIR got the aircraft spare and willing to risk it?
Pete
Data from the CAA, libhomeradar, The EK source and planespotters.net
The August load factor was actually higher according to my calculations = 85%
You can read this in one of two ways: -
1) Very good as 85% is higher than 78% or
2) Bad, as the flight was downgraded 14 times in terms of seats in a traditionally strong month (probably an upgrade for actually passengers travelling on the 3-class)
My calculations are:
34 rotations on the two class 428 seat version = 14552
16 rotations on the three class 360 seat version =5760
10 rotations on the three class 354 seat version = 3540
2 rotations on the two class 346 version (B772ER) = 692
Total = 24544 which when divided by 20831 is 85%.
How does this compare to others, Glasgow was actually down but still averaged 90% but all 354/360 seat versions.
Manchester, BHX and Manchester (93% & 94% respectively) either saw monthly records or were close. BHX saw all 428 seat aircraft, Gatwick saw 15 x 428 seat versions in a an enormous figure of over 76K and Manchester saw a few 428 seat versions.
Comparing Newcastle to the other UK routes of course is unfair as they are more mature routes and probably totally pointless without the yield data but still some food for thought.
EK77WNCL
I am not sure why the surprise at the IT long-haul load factors - what were you expecting? I would expect at least 95-98% all year round and even then I wouldn't get that excited without knowing at what price those seats were filled at.
Dusseldorf/Frankfurt
It won't take long to get a good idea of how strong Dusseldorf really is once Germanwings have been operating it for a while. The change from Lufthansa to Germanwings on BHX - Berlin destroyed the route and it was gone within six months. Hamburg has fared a little better and BHX is lucky as it has flybe on Dusseldorf.
As for Frankfurt it will need to be at least twice a day code-share to fit into the LH hub and for O & D business and have BMIR got the aircraft spare and willing to risk it?
Pete
Last edited by OltonPete; 21st Sep 2014 at 10:23. Reason: spelling
EK - interesting analysis on passenger numbers, but only looks at the top half of the aircraft. My understanding is all the 300's have the same size cargo holds...
BD/SN - yes, agreement sill in place.
BD/SN - yes, agreement sill in place.
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Whilst it may have been operated as 3 class some days, the EK flight is sold as 2 class therefore the load factor based on the amount of seats available on sale would be, as simonwa explained, 78.5%.
This is still a pretty good figure but lets not try and fix the figures to make it look amazing as the flight is nonetheless sold as a 428 seat, 2 class 77W on a daily basis.
This is still a pretty good figure but lets not try and fix the figures to make it look amazing as the flight is nonetheless sold as a 428 seat, 2 class 77W on a daily basis.
Be happy
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OultonPete, regarding the TOM flights from NCL, I'd be willing to bet all the seats went for quite a hefty price. I know 4/5 families who have been to either Florida or Mexico (Sanford or Cancun) in the last 3 years, all of which have flown from GLA or MAN because they were cheaper, and one school friend who goes to Florida every June, has done for the last 10 years, they've never flown from Newcastle, always Glasgow, this year was the first they went from MAN, and always due to the price of the Newcastle flights. They've gone on TOM/TCX and VS over the years and have always been cheaper than the offering from Newcastle.
Good I suppose... That they are still filling it.
Good I suppose... That they are still filling it.
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you would hope they would be full and carrying a cost premium, the othe airports all have far more flights to Orlando than NCL, if there was crazy demand then there would be more flights, and the likes of VS would be at NCL and not at BFS.
Great to have demand for whats available however.
Great to have demand for whats available however.
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Yeah that's the problem with a small (and relatively poor) market such as NCL. 2 fights a week would bring prices down and loads up but yield would also come down. There might be just enough to support 2 per week but not with the margins they'll be getting now. Although the 787 could help... I'm happy with what we have and Jamaica coming up,
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I went to Mexico on the second Dreamliner flight direct to Cancun from Newcastle this year and paid more or less the same as from Gatwick or Manchester. Looked at all options and NCL worked out the same! It would have been a lot more to go from Manchester/Gatwick if you added in overnight hotel, car parking and petrol.
The flights were almost full both ways. Only one or two seats empty. The demand is there for flights, so I hope they add more long haul.
Out of interest, anyone know why the recently announced flights to Jamaica are NOT on the Dreamliner? Seems strange to say that all long haul flying will be on the Dreamliner, yet these flights are definitely not.
The flights were almost full both ways. Only one or two seats empty. The demand is there for flights, so I hope they add more long haul.
Out of interest, anyone know why the recently announced flights to Jamaica are NOT on the Dreamliner? Seems strange to say that all long haul flying will be on the Dreamliner, yet these flights are definitely not.
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EK
Hi guys
Excellent news with EK hitting the 20K mark per month.
Does it really matter if the aircraft was down graded some days?
Maybe on the quieter days for EK route wide they have to down grade some of there routes and put the aircraft where it is needed.
As long as we see the route grow and we keep the daily flight a 777 does it really matter?
I noticed that the lunchtime glasgow flight today wass a 777-200 so does that mean more people flew from ncl today rather than glasgow??
Excellent news with EK hitting the 20K mark per month.
Does it really matter if the aircraft was down graded some days?
Maybe on the quieter days for EK route wide they have to down grade some of there routes and put the aircraft where it is needed.
As long as we see the route grow and we keep the daily flight a 777 does it really matter?
I noticed that the lunchtime glasgow flight today wass a 777-200 so does that mean more people flew from ncl today rather than glasgow??
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I wouldn't get to worried about Emirates swapping planes occasionally - those numbers for their non-London UK flights are amazing - we know they have a lower cost base than say BA and they don't charge THAT much less - and +75% normally means you are making a lot of money
I suspect they may swap if they can use a larger aircraft elsewhere on the day - that's the sort of flexibility you should have - not a slavish mindset that sends out the same plane everyday regardless
My question is what do they do going forward? Add more flights - maybe 10 a week rather than 7??? You'd have to be pretty brave to stick a 380 on the route but I've seen them in Aukland and they can't have many more pax than NCL, GLA or MAN
I suspect they may swap if they can use a larger aircraft elsewhere on the day - that's the sort of flexibility you should have - not a slavish mindset that sends out the same plane everyday regardless
My question is what do they do going forward? Add more flights - maybe 10 a week rather than 7??? You'd have to be pretty brave to stick a 380 on the route but I've seen them in Aukland and they can't have many more pax than NCL, GLA or MAN
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EK
I would say it would be a good way forward for EK to increase NCL to 10 weekly flights on there busy days adding an evening flight.
I just hope they don't add a daily flight into EDB?
I'm guessing they will add a A380 service from glasgow first to offer a different product from the rest of the north of england/scotland compared to the 777/787 that's on offer and soon to be joined by Eithads A330!
Time will tell but we all know these figures are good news.
Its a shame we can't find an airline that can offer the same the other way
I just hope they don't add a daily flight into EDB?
I'm guessing they will add a A380 service from glasgow first to offer a different product from the rest of the north of england/scotland compared to the 777/787 that's on offer and soon to be joined by Eithads A330!
Time will tell but we all know these figures are good news.
Its a shame we can't find an airline that can offer the same the other way
Join Date: May 2013
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How do you mean the other way? As in NYC? If so then I definitely agree, I really cannot see why it couldn't work (except from US airlines having high cost bases and not really offering the service you pay for as a result, or so many say).
I haven't seen it in person but how AKL handles the 3 A380's at once is really impressive, all arriving and departing at the same time. AKL doesn't have that many passengers, hence they all go via SYD, BNE and MEL. I'm not even sure there would be a market for DXB-AKL-DXB, especially not with the flights they have currently.
Anyway... In terms of NCL, I think within the next 2/3 years EK will do something at NCL and I would say that will probably come as either x10/x11 weekly, possibly on A340 500 or 777 200/200ER equipment... Maybe (but please God I hope not) on the A330's. Suppose a slack 77L could work too.
Regarding EDI, I would hope the following will be their logic:
2015/2016 - Get GLA up to A380
2015/2016 - Increase NCL to 10/11 weekly and introduce first class
2017/2018 - NCL 2 daily, GLA 3 daily, then start EDI after securing their existing markets
I'd say 4th daily MAN, daily STN, a South West service, another daily rotation to an existing London airport or two and maybe 3 daily BHX will all come before or around the time of EDI. Then they may start exploring options for new UK markets but I don't know where could be left without starting to cannibalise...
But I've gone a bit off topic... The longer places like Canada, Germany, China, France and India (although they are pretty lenient really) keep restricting flights and blocking markets under the façade they are supporting their local airlines, the more other markets such as the UK and USA will thrive on more opportunities given to them.
I haven't seen it in person but how AKL handles the 3 A380's at once is really impressive, all arriving and departing at the same time. AKL doesn't have that many passengers, hence they all go via SYD, BNE and MEL. I'm not even sure there would be a market for DXB-AKL-DXB, especially not with the flights they have currently.
Anyway... In terms of NCL, I think within the next 2/3 years EK will do something at NCL and I would say that will probably come as either x10/x11 weekly, possibly on A340 500 or 777 200/200ER equipment... Maybe (but please God I hope not) on the A330's. Suppose a slack 77L could work too.
Regarding EDI, I would hope the following will be their logic:
2015/2016 - Get GLA up to A380
2015/2016 - Increase NCL to 10/11 weekly and introduce first class
2017/2018 - NCL 2 daily, GLA 3 daily, then start EDI after securing their existing markets
I'd say 4th daily MAN, daily STN, a South West service, another daily rotation to an existing London airport or two and maybe 3 daily BHX will all come before or around the time of EDI. Then they may start exploring options for new UK markets but I don't know where could be left without starting to cannibalise...
But I've gone a bit off topic... The longer places like Canada, Germany, China, France and India (although they are pretty lenient really) keep restricting flights and blocking markets under the façade they are supporting their local airlines, the more other markets such as the UK and USA will thrive on more opportunities given to them.