Not sure what you are talking about there Wiggy. First I've heard of last year being an "outlier". Before Brexit the profit was forecast to continue to grow, in part due to the unwinding of fuel hedges but also as the economy was supposed to be growing. IAG have issued the profit warning as advance bookings are below trend. Hopefully all short-term due to uncertainty in the markets. But it is worth noting that pilot recruitment is NOT due to retirements (fewer than 40 this year I recall) but mainly due to expansion. If expansion stops, which is a possibility as a result of Brexit, it will have a very real impact on recruitment.

Of course REMAIN could equally put a hold on recruitment and expansion.

CW

No doubt correct you're on the maths, the forecasts and yes, I have a rough idea of the financial logic and what the city have been told earlier this year.

However in all honesty most guys I spoke to on the line thought this year's profit were unlikely to be repeated, so yes, an "outlier" in many peoples POV..and the response I've heard to the profit warning hasn't been "what a surprise", it's mostly been "no surprise there then, the rise couldn't continue".

I think I get what you are trying to say, but in a growing economy there is no reason why profits cannot continue to rise as we grab hold of our costs. IAG want their return on capital and will not stop in their pursuit of it. My worry about the IAG profit warning is how IAG and BA react industrially as well as commercially. Will expansion stop? Is a significant attack on our terms and conditions now firmly on the cards? I am very hopeful this uncertainty ends soon so that the economy, and thus the company and recruitment continues to grow. I do feel that people reading this thread should understand that the current recruitment wave has everything to do with growth (as well as new sickness assumptions) and very little to do with retirements.

Worrying piece of info there for those of us in the pool. However, I was under the impression that the new EASA ftl's also played a significant part in increasing the number of pilots required.

Would be interesting to see what we're told. How will Brexit affect EASA/UKCAA relationship, etc etc.

Congratulations to all of you guys who voted "OUT" :ok:

European Union is a dictature. More countries will soon be leaving EU.

wind check. Yuk. There are plenty of other places to vent your spleen over Brexit.

Whatever happens the UK CAA will be regulated by EASA. We aren't going back to the days of CAP371, forget it!

Hold on, so the 'Vote Leave' camp made promises that would never be delivered? Imagine that? Sorry about the spleen venting!

How on Earth does a stock go from 520p to 345p in two trading days?

Some of the comments here might have something to do with it:

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/brexit-clo...072831386.html

Personally even sceptical old me is now becoming slightly concerned about where this could lead if the current uncertainty continues...I think we're below a share price that can be explained by a bit of a readjustment and " no surprise there then" and are heading more into "OK, this is starting to feel a bit uncomfortable, you can stop now...!!"

..CW, you're more clued up on the stocks and share stuff than me - do you have any thoughts on the AFP piece?

I could have sworn Walsh said IAG would be unaffected by Brexit though. Yes, I can see that statement may well have been made on the basis that traffic can be moved within the group and so still effect BA greatly for instance, but if his words are true the IAG share price should not be experiencing such a violent hammering.

IAG is a Spanish registered company, right? And BA (whilst nominally British but owned by a Spanish company) don't in any case do any intra-Europe flying. So aside from the short term reduction in passengers - even if that does become reality - what exactly is the problem? Thought it would be more easyJet affected by this as per the previous post and Willie Walsh's comments.

In any case it has got me worried to the point where I've actually registered and started applications elsewhere. To be sped up or ignored as necessary.

I reckon if anybody comes out and says they know what's going to happen in the forseeable future they're having you on.
Certainly none of the political elite knew what the result was going to be and seem amazed and shocked.
I can't imagine the likes of the BA or IAG board having planned for a Brexit, and having just finished Taleb's book Black Swan, can see it is the unforeseen consequences of Brexit that are likely to scupper future plans, whether for expansion at LHR or BA.
That coupled with the fact that the second raters are about to take charge of the UK economy doesn't bode well for the future.

Yes that article does make for worrying reading Wiggy.

On the revenue side it seems like 2 large customer bases for BA will show less tendency to travel due to Brexit. The first group are the city and business types. The current uncertainty puts corporate deals, IPOs etc on hold until there is some idea of what a future trade agreement will look like with the EU, thus there will be less demand for business travel. The other group to be affected will be UK based would-be holiday makers now less likely to travel due to the value of Sterling.

On the flip-side it is worth noting that a devalued sterling makes our flights, and our country, more affordable for foreign points of sale, and other BA markets such as connecting India-USA flows via LHR may be unaffected so it is not all bad news.

On the cost side the price of fuel (paid for in US dollars) has just shot up as a result of sterling's devaluation. There will also be significant other costs paid for in foreign currency that have now just shot up in price. But we do also earn revenues in foreign currency so this mitigates it to some extent.

Overall the analysts paint a bleak picture in the short to medium term. I wouldn't expect any immediate reaction from IAG ( apart from perhaps accelerated cost cutting and delaying capex). But if things do go south it isn't unthinkable for the company to shrink again with 744s being sent to the desert. On topic this could halt any further recruitment, apart from that required for new sickness assumptions, retirements, and EASA, although these would be far smaller numbers than required for growth.

Fingers crossed and all that.

Sim date
 

Hi all
I have a sim assessment 27th July, PM me if you have the same.

Many thanks

Brexit
 

These may be of interest to some of you.

British Airways Seeks Brexit Tourism Boost as Ryanair Downbeat - Bloomberg

Brexit: British Airways owner IAG claims it won't cut UK jobs or move assets

.....apart from that required for new sickness assumptions, retirements, and EASA, although these would be far smaller numbers than required for growth.

" Sickness and Fatigue levels are unsurprisingly on the rise in BA (and many other airlines i'd expect) due to EASA FTL's, some fleets doing 5-6 LH trips a month which isn't sustainable long term so certainly numbers will be needed to cope with this continuing problem.

5-6 LH Trips a month. Factually correct but the annual limits stand unchanged. So yes they may be able to roster 5-6 trips in a month for a while but sooner or later in the year you are going to hit the 900 hour buffer. Sooner in this case! 90 hours a month leaves you with November and December off by my reckoning, not much number crunching involved. So no, these rosters are not sustainable even as it stands.

90 hours a month is not unusual and doesn't necessarily mean two months off at the end of the year. Factor in six weeks leave and two simulator blocks/SEP etc and it all comes together.

Just wanted to clarify what the new verbal reasoning test entails, is it similar to the old one in respect of reading a long passage and then answering either True/False or Cannot say?

Flap62 that wasn't meant to be taken literally it was just to highlight that to all practical purposes it is completely impossible to do 90 hours month after month.

@cw

Yes, and apart from true/false some answers are a sentence and you have to pick which one is correct according to whats featured in the text.

What are some good resources for day 2? Thanks all!

BW

Thank you very much for the clarification, best of luck in the remainder of the selection process.

BW - Reading the previous 154 pages of this thread and the low down part 1 thread gives you all the preparation material you need! Good luck!

Any thoughts on when application window will open again?

Any news on change of requirements or still expecting 320 TR with 500+ hours ?

MA

:ok:

Hi all,

Just for info the BA PRIAM bidding process has just opened and will stay open for the next month. This is the system that allows current BA pilots to put in a request for a fleet transfer. It is seniority based, and takes into account forecast vacancies, retirements, part time requests, fleet growth or decline and any freezes relevant to the individual.

Bidding now is for the training year starting Jan '17 and it is worth noting that this will be the first time that those pilot who started in 2012, when recruitment started to ramp up, will be able to bid without the initial 5 year freeze. Once the bidding closes BA then allocates courses on a seniority basis and then looks at what seats it has left and recruits appropriately.

What this means in terms of numbers and LH/SH I have no idea and I suspect neither will BA until the end of the summer/ early autumn.

Regards

I would not be overly pessimistic about the effect of BREXIT.

Revenue has been under pressure for a while now and the industry trend is downward at the moment.

Companies like BA will fair much better than the larger ones out there in the long run as long as Mr Cruz does not go mad.

Whilst some fixed and variable costs will go up with the weakened pound we are neutrally hedged on a number of fronts.

The 747 plan will remain unchanged. We own them, and they are full so making good money, so I do not foresee a huge change in the retirement plan for them.

Biggest threat to employees / pilots is the company itself using the present uncertainty to leverage more efficiency and cost reductions.

As a manager I told guys years ago "Go part time asap and do something that either makes you happy, or rich (not necessarily monetary) in your spare time but do not rely on BA in the future to deliver on all your needs".

My advice remains un changed.

Off on holiday.....

Hope your well Wiggy.

It looks like the A320 campaign has just opened...it also looks like the window is quite short too, end date of 27th July!

https://jobs.ba.com/jobs/vacancy/584/description

[QUOTE=JazzyKex;9439321]It looks like the A320 campaign has just opened...it also looks like the window is quite short too, end date of 27th July!


https://jobs.ba.com/jobs/vacancy/584/description

Only able to apply if one can attend one of two available dates on this short notice?

Dear Fms1,
Hi, may I ask you when did you book the slot for the sim assessment?
I'm trying to book a sim slot since the beginning of june but on the webpage says "slots not available".


Best Regards,
Angelo26

I always looked at BA but I'm not sure what the actual positives are beyond the ones of variety, large company, image. Those are low down on my personal list. Genuine question, reading though the threads it seems a common theme:-

1/900 hours pa airline. Only one in UK that does this LH
2/ changing terms, not for better with variable flight pay, bidline going
3/ New boss with cost cutting on horizon
4/ decent pay but not the best
5/ only base south east

I was reading the VS thread and it seems they get paid more and fly a lot less. People who fly for Thomas Cook, Mon, Thomson seem happy with the lifestyle. So what apart from the image and reckoned security attracts people to BA lifestyle wise? It has to be lifestyle as priority surely? Even with bidline you still fly max hours. Just seems reading its potentially worse than likes of Vs or charter operators. Has anyone joined BA recently and regretted it?

Please don't take this as a dig, I'm interested. I considered applying but I am not sure it's for me and for the reasons above so interested to hear what those on t' inside thought of these things.

Hi Jack, all good questions to ask. If more guys thought like you, the T&C's would probably rise. Sadly, if I was a young thrusting pilot with a few thousand hours and a decent type rating, I would be looking East. The way aviation is regarded and taxed in the Uk and EU, it is a dying industry. For a semi decent lifestyle and decent money , stay out of the U.K. By decent money , I'm talking 100K+ take home.
Many of us in BA do ok because we joined 20+ years ago, and are towards the top of the seniority lists for bidding. Many live abroad, paying reduced levels of taxation.
If I had other options, I don't think I'd join BA again, knowing I'd be stuck in the SE.

Hi Jack

some really good questions and having been at BA now 18 months i'd say a lot of your assumptions are right!

I'm LH and never worked so hard in my career and the tiredness is a killer if you aren't the type that can just sleep anywhere!

EASA has certainly made getting good chunks of time off a lot harder add to which if you leave a gap of more than 3 days you risk being forced assigned anyway! Lots of Trip 2 days off trip 2 days off trip 2 days off and after a while you just don't feel recovered. :sad:

Bidline going who knows how the new system will be until it comes in but the sceptical side of me thinks it will be much like a Blind Line with very little control especially if junior but time will tell. :E

The new boss definitely has cost cutting on the agenda how much of that will come our way no one knows but one of the biggest things as a newbie in BA that surprised me is how low morale is on the line, i guess for many the reality of being in BA and not being immune to the downward changes going on is starting to sink in for many. That said the people you fly with are mostly great and no different from any of the other airlines I've worked at.

I'd say the command gradient is shallow at BA you are given a lot of responsibility on your sector as an FO which i think is good for progression.

If you want a big corporate and the security that goes with it then i guess BA gives that a big tick but i came from a bucket and spade company where the airport was 35 mins away and i was home every night and felt like my flying skills were much sharper than they are now! Never felt as tired as i do now and was Parked back outside my house within 55 mins of shutting engines down, now I'm lucky if i am at my car within that time. :{

All i'd say is BA certainly is not the holy grail it once was but you know that already, but many don't and i think once the honeymoon period is over some will be in for disappointment. The current work load is not sustainable full time in my opinion unless you want serious health issues or death early into your retirement which i guess is why many are going earlier than planned at the top! I flew with a skipper who was 75% a few months back, he said he's working harder 75% than he was full time 6 years ago! I have a mate at VS and he doesn't work anywhere near as hard. I guess do what works for you. Hope that helps. :ok:

Interesting questions from Jack, and I wouldn't quibble with the responses.

In my experience that sounds very credible.

Judging by the numbers trying to get onto one of the part time contracts you are not alone in that belief. The ability to sustain the full time workload is becoming a major concern for many, in both seats.

Interesting the 900 hour point. Some great stuff from BA people above.

Far from me to say I know about BA's approach being a cantankerous fart, but they've always struck me as being a very safe, cautious lot riddled with an approach not to push up to fixed safety limits. Presume like most they don't like pushing to limits on anything regularly - it's bad practice. Odd then that they regularly and decisively push crew to the legal limit on hours.

Before we get too hung up on the 900 hrs thing. On the 4 long haul fleets there are only 82 pilots over 800 hrs in the 11 months to 31st Aug (ie within a fighting chance of hitting 900 before 30th Sept). Some of them probably have leave etc that will keep them well below.

That's out of 2800 odd pilots.

There's only around 300 who'll even be over 750hrs in the same 11 months.

It was much worse a few years ago. 1/3 of the 747 fleet were 'on the list' at one point

It's not just the 900 hours though is it HM?

There's the whole associated issue of Force assign and it's effect on people's the ability to generate predictable and/or usable block of days off that is causing grief for some in their off duty lives, hence the some of the increased demand for Part Time.

There certainly seems to be an increase of days at work on some fleets (Short haul Duty Rig)....

I'm now in the top 20% of the Airbus RHS and about to move on, but I can report that life as an SFO at BA on short haul is a lot better than other airlines I've worked at. On around 750 hours at the moment although that's less than most.

The main thing for me about BA is the roster stability. I've been force assigned once (my fault for messing up the bid) and other than that its rock solid. The only time it changes is when trips are taken off you for training and they normally apologise for that!

Oh and I don't know how many thousands of pounds of club class travel my wife and I have enjoyed at staff rates, but its a LOT.

So it still does have perks... although other posters are right to point out that there is increasing pressure on terms and conditions at BA.