Not sure what you are talking about there Wiggy. First I've heard of last year being an "outlier". Before Brexit the profit was forecast to continue to grow, in part due to the unwinding of fuel hedges but also as the economy was supposed to be growing. IAG have issued the profit warning as advance bookings are below trend. Hopefully all short-term due to uncertainty in the markets. But it is worth noting that pilot recruitment is NOT due to retirements (fewer than 40 this year I recall) but mainly due to expansion. If expansion stops, which is a possibility as a result of Brexit, it will have a very real impact on recruitment.

Of course REMAIN could equally put a hold on recruitment and expansion.

CW

No doubt correct you're on the maths, the forecasts and yes, I have a rough idea of the financial logic and what the city have been told earlier this year.

However in all honesty most guys I spoke to on the line thought this year's profit were unlikely to be repeated, so yes, an "outlier" in many peoples POV..and the response I've heard to the profit warning hasn't been "what a surprise", it's mostly been "no surprise there then, the rise couldn't continue".

I think I get what you are trying to say, but in a growing economy there is no reason why profits cannot continue to rise as we grab hold of our costs. IAG want their return on capital and will not stop in their pursuit of it. My worry about the IAG profit warning is how IAG and BA react industrially as well as commercially. Will expansion stop? Is a significant attack on our terms and conditions now firmly on the cards? I am very hopeful this uncertainty ends soon so that the economy, and thus the company and recruitment continues to grow. I do feel that people reading this thread should understand that the current recruitment wave has everything to do with growth (as well as new sickness assumptions) and very little to do with retirements.

Worrying piece of info there for those of us in the pool. However, I was under the impression that the new EASA ftl's also played a significant part in increasing the number of pilots required.

Would be interesting to see what we're told. How will Brexit affect EASA/UKCAA relationship, etc etc.

Congratulations to all of you guys who voted "OUT" :ok:

European Union is a dictature. More countries will soon be leaving EU.

wind check. Yuk. There are plenty of other places to vent your spleen over Brexit.

Whatever happens the UK CAA will be regulated by EASA. We aren't going back to the days of CAP371, forget it!

Hold on, so the 'Vote Leave' camp made promises that would never be delivered? Imagine that? Sorry about the spleen venting!

How on Earth does a stock go from 520p to 345p in two trading days?

Some of the comments here might have something to do with it:

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/brexit-clo...072831386.html

Personally even sceptical old me is now becoming slightly concerned about where this could lead if the current uncertainty continues...I think we're below a share price that can be explained by a bit of a readjustment and " no surprise there then" and are heading more into "OK, this is starting to feel a bit uncomfortable, you can stop now...!!"

..CW, you're more clued up on the stocks and share stuff than me - do you have any thoughts on the AFP piece?

I could have sworn Walsh said IAG would be unaffected by Brexit though. Yes, I can see that statement may well have been made on the basis that traffic can be moved within the group and so still effect BA greatly for instance, but if his words are true the IAG share price should not be experiencing such a violent hammering.

IAG is a Spanish registered company, right? And BA (whilst nominally British but owned by a Spanish company) don't in any case do any intra-Europe flying. So aside from the short term reduction in passengers - even if that does become reality - what exactly is the problem? Thought it would be more easyJet affected by this as per the previous post and Willie Walsh's comments.

In any case it has got me worried to the point where I've actually registered and started applications elsewhere. To be sped up or ignored as necessary.

I reckon if anybody comes out and says they know what's going to happen in the forseeable future they're having you on.
Certainly none of the political elite knew what the result was going to be and seem amazed and shocked.
I can't imagine the likes of the BA or IAG board having planned for a Brexit, and having just finished Taleb's book Black Swan, can see it is the unforeseen consequences of Brexit that are likely to scupper future plans, whether for expansion at LHR or BA.
That coupled with the fact that the second raters are about to take charge of the UK economy doesn't bode well for the future.

Yes that article does make for worrying reading Wiggy.

On the revenue side it seems like 2 large customer bases for BA will show less tendency to travel due to Brexit. The first group are the city and business types. The current uncertainty puts corporate deals, IPOs etc on hold until there is some idea of what a future trade agreement will look like with the EU, thus there will be less demand for business travel. The other group to be affected will be UK based would-be holiday makers now less likely to travel due to the value of Sterling.

On the flip-side it is worth noting that a devalued sterling makes our flights, and our country, more affordable for foreign points of sale, and other BA markets such as connecting India-USA flows via LHR may be unaffected so it is not all bad news.

On the cost side the price of fuel (paid for in US dollars) has just shot up as a result of sterling's devaluation. There will also be significant other costs paid for in foreign currency that have now just shot up in price. But we do also earn revenues in foreign currency so this mitigates it to some extent.

Overall the analysts paint a bleak picture in the short to medium term. I wouldn't expect any immediate reaction from IAG ( apart from perhaps accelerated cost cutting and delaying capex). But if things do go south it isn't unthinkable for the company to shrink again with 744s being sent to the desert. On topic this could halt any further recruitment, apart from that required for new sickness assumptions, retirements, and EASA, although these would be far smaller numbers than required for growth.

Fingers crossed and all that.

Sim date
 

Hi all
I have a sim assessment 27th July, PM me if you have the same.

Many thanks

Brexit
 

These may be of interest to some of you.

British Airways Seeks Brexit Tourism Boost as Ryanair Downbeat - Bloomberg

Brexit: British Airways owner IAG claims it won't cut UK jobs or move assets

.....apart from that required for new sickness assumptions, retirements, and EASA, although these would be far smaller numbers than required for growth.

" Sickness and Fatigue levels are unsurprisingly on the rise in BA (and many other airlines i'd expect) due to EASA FTL's, some fleets doing 5-6 LH trips a month which isn't sustainable long term so certainly numbers will be needed to cope with this continuing problem.

5-6 LH Trips a month. Factually correct but the annual limits stand unchanged. So yes they may be able to roster 5-6 trips in a month for a while but sooner or later in the year you are going to hit the 900 hour buffer. Sooner in this case! 90 hours a month leaves you with November and December off by my reckoning, not much number crunching involved. So no, these rosters are not sustainable even as it stands.

90 hours a month is not unusual and doesn't necessarily mean two months off at the end of the year. Factor in six weeks leave and two simulator blocks/SEP etc and it all comes together.