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Coronavirus- Rostering and Seating Issues

Old 16th Apr 2020, 16:26
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Originally Posted by 152wiseguy
Where do you get your figures from? The weekly death rates published on the news are double of those we'd normally expect at this time of year and they lag the data by a number of days. Given these are the death rates with the lockdown measures in place, wouldn't it be reasonable to expect even higher death rates without any measures? Are you seriously trying to say everything the country has done is unnecessary just because your symptoms were mild?
I'm saying it was pointless to lock down the economy to the large numbers of people that this virus is a negligible risk. The lockdown should have been totalitarian for those demographics affected and at risk by NCov. Those groups are well known. By locking down the economy to everyone, we are literally burning the economy around us. Instead, the government crapped its pants to the exceptionally poorly managed communications and handling surrounding "Herd Immunity" (utterly the wrong phrase to use). How many over seventies are we still seeing using the supermarket? I counted at least thirty at the last visit. I cannot think of a higher risk area at present than the supermarket (other than a hospital) yet the highest risk groups are still avoiding the advice, refusing assistance and putting themselves at risk. This in turn risks the NHS from being completely inundated with patients requiring lengthy ICU care or death for them and other aged and vulnerable members of their homes. What I am saying is that what the country is doing is an utterly blunt instrument when a more intelligent application of lock down needs to be applied, but to only those at risk of clogging the pipes of the NHS. Exactly what Sweden are doing.

Yes, the figures are double those for this time of year. But this virus has not followed the timelines that the typical respiratory viral outbreak follows. And as a disease that is brand new to humanity, why would it? have a look at the weekly death figures for the past 10 years and have a look at what the typical peak in deaths are during the peak of seasonal flu.

There is significant evidence to suggest that a lot of the additional deaths are due to the fear that mass media and public hysteria has caused, meaning they are staying at home instead of ringing 999 for a suspected heart attack or stroke. A and E attendance is down to 1/3 its normal figure. You need to know what the statistics are saying rather than take them at face value.


Good to see this introduction by Emirates, ultimately sensible and where we will be going as an industry for the next 2 years. Even if a test is only 95% effective, better to have this data than not. 1 in 20 may continue to spread the disease, or there may be false positives, but it keeps things going.

Here is a question for you. How many heart transplants, cancer operations, nurses, schools, small business loans could the tax revenue on the 2.4 billion that we are losing in GDP take a day fund for my kids, your kids and their kids when they need it? Because what we are doing is stealing tomorrow’s money to save today’s problem and it’s a complete abrogation of responsibility of any government in managing a country’s finances.

Last edited by VinRouge; 16th Apr 2020 at 16:50.
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Old 16th Apr 2020, 23:04
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How many over seventies are we still seeing using the supermarket? I counted at least thirty at the last visit. I cannot think of a higher risk area at present than the supermarket (other than a hospital) yet the highest risk groups are still avoiding the advice
Happens in other countries outside the UK as well...as long as they agree to "DNR/Do not ventilate" I guess they can carry on .............

What I am saying is that what the country is doing is an utterly blunt instrument when a more intelligent application of lock down needs to be applied, but to only those at risk of clogging the pipes of the NHS. Exactly what Sweden are doing.
Ah....I think it's a bit early to claim Sweden has got this right and everybody else has been heavy handed.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...l-reaches-1000
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Old 17th Apr 2020, 08:33
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Originally Posted by wiggy
Happens in other countries outside the UK as well...as long as they agree to "DNR/Do not ventilate" I guess they can carry on .............



Ah....I think it's a bit early to claim Sweden has got this right and everybody else has been heavy handed.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...l-reaches-1000
ONS data section 7/8 interesting....
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...rate-for-march

more and more people seem to think my earlier idea will be used as the means to unlock the country:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/a...GH-OSMOND.html


Cancer charities now struggling too:https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news...rpool-18105919

Last edited by VinRouge; 17th Apr 2020 at 11:47.
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Old 17th Apr 2020, 14:38
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An acceptable trade off ?



Yes I know that the Lockdown is extremely damaging to the economy and it might seem to be an excessive response to protect the 99% of victims who are very old or who have multiple medical conditions.



But consider this :



Among the remaining 1%, there are thousands of people with very productive lives ahead of them. This includes many highly skilled and experienced healthcare professionals., people that we may all need to depend on one day. They are courageously putting the lives on the line now to treat Coronavirus patients at close quarters.



Most troubling of all is that, as of 15th April, TWENTY SIX public transport workers in London (mainly bus drivers) have also died. They did not have to get as close as clinicians to their customers but they still caught it. If we come off lockdown too early, I fear a second spike which may kill many of our friends, relations and colleagues. Many will be in customer facing roles. Can we really return to ‘normal’ before we have a vaccine? Who will want to work in a customer facing role ? Who would want to go on a plane? What sort of a normal will that be ?



A terrible dilemma.

.
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Old 17th Apr 2020, 18:26
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Quote


more and more people seem to think my earlier idea will be used as the means to unlock the country:

...are you Donald Trump by any chance?

and “You’re idea” was the idea for a primary strategy before the elected political realised that pursuing it would render them unelectable for the foreseeable future. Most of the “ sunshine” expendables have sons, daughters, brothers, sisters, grandchildren etc...

Recently had a report from a healthy fellow crew member, totally outside of Vin Rouges demographic, that had a dose of Covid. Makes for sobering reading. Wondering if Vin R would be so eager to recommend the infection to everyone if his experience had been similar...
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Old 18th Apr 2020, 06:17
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Vinrouge you make some interesting points. Does the fact that you have had (private testing??) the virus change your point of view?

If you had lost a close young family member and had another plugged into a ventilator would you still be wanting to get back to work so you could maintain what is I presume an expensive lifestyle?
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Old 18th Apr 2020, 08:24
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Public sentiment certainly seems to be moving in the direction proposed by Mr. Rouge from what I can see.
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Old 18th Apr 2020, 10:40
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In what way exactly? Just go back to work and let the NHS get completely overloaded? Maybe they could do the chemo therapy in the car parks.
it's an impossible situation and everyone has a point of view.
If it's just like a normal flu then why are the ICU struggling?

I realise old people die anyhow so maybe someone needs to start making some even more difficult decisions but as aircrew I dont feel we are in full possession of the relevant facts or particularly well qualified to comment.
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Old 18th Apr 2020, 15:02
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How will ithe NHS be overloaded, when those that are causing 95% of ICU admissions are still on total lockdown? Nationally, we did not get anywhere near ICU overload. It was localised only and the military was ready to step in to use specialist intensive care transport support to move the burden around? If at risk groups stick to lockdown and regular test/contract trace of logistics personnel are established for people supplying them at home, there is no reason why at risk groups will be facing any enhanced risk. If people want to cut out all risk, they need to stay at home 24/7.

FACT - 93% of deaths have chronic healthcare issues.
FACT - 95% are over 75.
FACT - deaths amongst under 50s are less than 1 in a hundred of all deaths. Including those with known chronic conditions.

Id like to see from the limp waisted hang wringers where they suggest the money is coming from to make up the money that is being stolen from my children to pay for this economy destroying shutdown. We aren’t talking reduction in living standards. We are talking about long term damage to the economy with strife inflicted far worse than the impact of NCov.

[[color=#000000]If you had lost a close young family member and had another plugged into a ventilator would you still be wanting to get back to work so you could maintain what is I presume an expensive lifestyle?

have you seen the statistics for the number of under 18s, with no chronic condition who have ended up on ICU or have died? A hysterical Uninformed comment doesn’t stand up to the facts.

i don’t have an expensive lifestyle. I just don’t want this generation stealing even more of my children’s future for no long term goal. If a more stringent lockdown is established for vulnerable and aged, there will be no icu overload, reduced economic catastrophic impact with will mean more of us will maintain recognised living standards than what will happen with the mismanagement currently established.

Ive spent extensive time in Central America and central Africa. I’ve seen what happens when NICE cut the cost of a life from the current 50k to under 50 quid. You can have that, I won’t be taking it. Like others will be happy to take your job as a result of the carnage you are proposing.Watch a 4 year old kid bin pick for their next meal and it will change your perspective. I saw that in Argentina, not a third world country by any stretch. Economically illiterate.

Last edited by VinRouge; 18th Apr 2020 at 16:22.
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Old 18th Apr 2020, 16:25
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Originally Posted by Fly Better!
I know that facts, better than you I would suspect.

So what do you suggest?

You obviously have all the answers.

I feel sorry for your kids I really do, not because of the future but because you are their father, I presume you are their father (as do you I guess). Do you not get a free test for that too like your Covid 19 test and Flue jab?

I think we all want to get back to work but for me, not at the cost of those like my parents, who paid for the privilege of using the NHS unlike your children.
if they paid for it, where has the cash from North Sea oil gone and why do we have a public debt of over 1.8 trillion? Why are we now spending far less on education, policing and infrastructure and more on pensions and health as a proportion of gdp than any time in modern history? Get gramps and granny locked up. They will then be safe. Also, Give over on childish insults about paternity. It demonstrates your lack of intelligence.

You are going to have to accept that we cannot wrap everyone in cotton wool at a time like this. Our elected grown ups will make those decisions on our behalf in the next 2 weeks. It will be you and not I that has to deal with dislocation of expectation.
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Old 18th Apr 2020, 16:31
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I dont know where the cash from the North Sea oil went, we have already established Im not that clever.

So what do you suggest?
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Old 18th Apr 2020, 16:44
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It seems you are in Germany vinrouge, things are different there to the UK I would suggest.
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Old 18th Apr 2020, 16:55
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Originally Posted by MrKipling
It seems you are in Germany vinrouge, things are different there to the UK I would suggest.
no longer. Came back off from military exchange years ago,
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Old 18th Apr 2020, 17:52
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The suggested return to normalisation I’m afraid isn’t an option. What are you trying to preserve for your children? That’s an open question for us all.

A continuation of our current life style choices and way of life will eventually just guarantee a repeat of the current situation. Capitalism only survives with continuous growth, expansion, consumption, market value rules over life. Continual encroachment of pristine rain Forrest, loss of habitat pushing species ever closer together making cross contamination of pathogens ever more likely. It’s nothing new, Jesus even Hollywood managed to predict it 5 years ago.Can you imagine a pathogen with the same incubation period as Covid19, with the mortality rate of MERS? Most of the time a virus will mutate to a less potent state, Ebola has several strains.....if you want to sleep well don’t search for what the worst does...

We need less consumption, less drive for efficiency, less drive for expansion. There are amazingly a myriad of jobs that are literally unneeded, created and sustained to support the system, a bit lit Ryanair putting an airframe on a route that never previously existed, but make it cheap enough and they will come.
I don’t have the answers, I’m not clever enough, but I do know what we’ve got isn’t...

So maybe we don’t need to throw our elderly parents under the bus in the name of a short term return to normality...maybe we need to accept that we’ve got it wrong, and if we don’t our children won’t have any future at all, let alone one that is less than we’d all hoped for....
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Old 18th Apr 2020, 18:00
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Its not just the elderly. What about my friends 16 year old diabetic son, young parents with MS.

It is an incredibly difficult situation for everyone. Personally I would rather do without (I have done before) and keep the people around me safe and trust in those who specialise in dealing with this just like they trust me to do my job properly when I take them on holiday.
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Old 18th Apr 2020, 18:28
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Originally Posted by Fly Better!
Its not just the elderly. What about my friends 16 year old diabetic son, young parents with MS.

It is an incredibly difficult situation for everyone. Personally I would rather do without (I have done before) and keep the people around me safe and trust in those who specialise in dealing with this just like they trust me to do my job properly when I take them on holiday.
If there is a single vulnerable member of the household, as per what I have said before, the whole family Will have to remain on lockdown. But that is no different than the status quo. The difficult decision government will have is if it turns out ethnicity is a significant risk factor. A whole load of moral hazard may be about to rear it’s head.

A point though. No vaccine is 100% effective. Most, around 80%+ fortunately. . So, what do you suggest people do? Stay locked at home indefinitely just in case they are part of the 20% that have no immunity. There will still be residual risk for those with chronic identified conditions, even once the jab has been deployed.
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Old 18th Apr 2020, 18:30
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Originally Posted by Dark Stanley
The suggested return to normalisation I’m afraid isn’t an option. What are you trying to preserve for your children? That’s an open question for us all.
My answer to that would be, did we start wearing sandals, long socks and revert to socialism en masse after 100 million died of Spanish flu In 1918 and then nearly a million globally from the 1957 outbreak (from a much lower global population). Or did we just get on with it? I’ve never suggested throwing the elderly or vulnerable under a bus. But there are more intelligent and effective ways of handling this crisis.

This situation is not unique. The global community has been here before and had it much worse. What has changed is some bizarre notion that we all have a right to live to past 100, despite ignoring scientific advice about smoking, obesity, drinking and type 2 diabetes.

If you want to look for a reason things are going off the rails, it’s not globalisation. It’s too many people on a planet that is past capacity. We don’t have a too much co2 problem for example. We have a too many people emitting Co2 problem. Nature has a pretty good track history of correcting global imbalance.

Most of the time a virus will mutate to a less potent state, Ebola has several strains.....if you want to sleep well don’t search for what the worst does...
I was at the front line of the U.K. response to the last major outbreak on and off for a number of weeks, with flights to West Africa. I saw it first hand In some of the U.K. repatriations and evacuations we were involved in. All UK were caught by testing at a very early symptomatic stage, runny nose that sort of thing. The briefings we had (including some disturbing photosfrom the last stages) made it quite clear you didn’t want to get it. Fortunately, Ebola has a pretty low Transmissivity, certainly much lower than NCov. when foreign assistance first turned up, survival rates were pretty much zero. By the end, it was more like 60-80% in the patients favour. Most of international help cut the outbreak in 2014/15 by education in how to handle dead bodies. There were a lot of cultural norms which were massively increasing transmission and took a lot of work/education to break those norms.


What I would say a lot was learned from that outbreak, more than you will ever know at a deep research level. I hope that some of what has been learned is being deployed in fighting NCov from a potential treatment perspective.



Last edited by VinRouge; 18th Apr 2020 at 19:46.
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Old 18th Apr 2020, 19:53
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Vinrouge you obviously have all the right answers, why not ring Boris when hes back in the office and tell him.

Theres loads of people still working not least the NHS. Maybe the tourist industry is screwed. Being skint isn't the end of the world, I've been there, its character building.

Spanish flu caused a million deaths, would it have been much less if they had all stayed home? Just saying. Who knows?
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Old 18th Apr 2020, 20:07
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Originally Posted by Fly Better!
Vinrouge you obviously have all the right answers, why not ring Boris when hes back in the office and tell him.

Theres loads of people still working not least the NHS. Maybe the tourist industry is screwed. Being skint isn't the end of the world, I've been there, its character building.

Spanish flu caused a million deaths, would it have been much less if they had all stayed home? Just saying. Who knows?
we aren’t talking about being skint though. Just as you think I am downplaying the impact or severity of NCov, you are doing the same with the economic impact. Shutting 90% of
your economy down is going to have a wider impact than tourism. And not temporarily either.

ive done my time being a public servant. 20 years of it and absolutely no interest in going back to inefficiency, waste and poor leadership. I grew up skint as a kid and it was turd, not sure about character building. No thanks.

No use telling these loons. They are the ones that promised the nation sunlit Brexit uplands, whilst not having enough British interest to pick veg and having to beg the international community for ventilators. Mainly in Europe. Let’s also not forget Michael “we are done listening to experts” Gove. It appears that no one is in charge at the moment anyhow.

Coronavirus: Lack of political leader leaves scientists in charge, say Tories

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/coronavirus-lack-of-political-leader-leaves-scientists-in-charge-say-tories-z72sdfcdn

Last edited by VinRouge; 18th Apr 2020 at 20:29.
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Old 18th Apr 2020, 21:20
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Globalisation and over population probably go hand in hand. You seem to welcome the opportunity of a mass extermination of people you deem to be of either the wrong demographic or of a lesser intelligence. It’s not a new view point, the last really big reduction in world population was brought about by similar elitist agendas not by Gaia.

As for reverting to socialism, there are still remote South Pacific islands that exist in perfect harmony with their environment. Not by any other means than coexisting with themselves and nature. Perfect socialism, not that they’d know it.

pulling our socks up isn’t going to cut it anymore. Less consumption, less expansion, more conservation might give us a chance. We have no idea what pathogens are waiting to cross over in pristine Rain Forrests. And that is very Gaia, and very scary....
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