Go Back  PPRuNe Forums > Flight Deck Forums > Terms and Endearment
Reload this Page >

Who will survive this and be here in 6 months ?

Terms and Endearment The forum the bean counters hoped would never happen. Your news on pay, rostering, allowances, extras and negotiations where you work - scheduled, charter or contract.

Who will survive this and be here in 6 months ?

Old 20th Mar 2020, 15:12
  #261 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2020
Location: London
Posts: 0
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
I'm not so sure that everything will go back to what it was before. The fragility of the supply chains that resulted from globalisation will make a lot of people think whether there is another way to do things, especially when it comes to food security and medical supplies. I think we may well see the re-emergence of 'national champions' that allow countries to keep vital business production within the country.
cashash is offline  
Old 20th Mar 2020, 16:05
  #262 (permalink)  
ZFT
N4790P
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Asia
Age: 72
Posts: 2,192
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Originally Posted by RudderTrimZero View Post
The conclusion is as follows then. Freedom comes at a price. That price is to accept an all powerful but completely out of control and irresponsible media.
.....or not
ZFT is offline  
Old 20th Mar 2020, 16:42
  #263 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: UK
Posts: 1,459
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Originally Posted by cashash View Post
I'm not so sure that everything will go back to what it was before. The fragility of the supply chains that resulted from globalisation will make a lot of people think whether there is another way to do things, especially when it comes to food security and medical supplies. I think we may well see the re-emergence of 'national champions' that allow countries to keep vital business production within the country.
Supply chains have been vulnerable since we stopped doing everything in each village. But that made each village vulnerable to weather and/or crop disease.
cats_five is offline  
Old 20th Mar 2020, 17:01
  #264 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: UK
Age: 67
Posts: 1,332
Received 1 Like on 1 Post
If no one had heard of corona, and there was just another type of 'flu' going around. Would we have known any different? Would the shelves be empty of toilet paper and other
Oh I think we would have noticed an increased death rate. Consider the problems that the Italians are having in their hospitals.
beardy is offline  
Old 20th Mar 2020, 18:04
  #265 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Europe
Posts: 451
Likes: 0
Received 1 Like on 1 Post
Originally Posted by beardy View Post
Oh I think we would have noticed an increased death rate. Consider the problems that the Italians are having in their hospitals.
Thank you. I'm flabbergasted that this isn't obvious to some people.
733driver is online now  
Old 20th Mar 2020, 18:45
  #266 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: LFBZ (for a while)
Posts: 742
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
+1 for Tacho, well +0.5 anyway. imo it's a good idea to have a bit of social distancing etc to slow down the spread, to give the medical system time to prepare a bit and to get a bit more understanding of the virus before it becomes truly pandemic (which it will, no doubt about that).

I've been chatting (at a social distance of course, since we're on different continents) with my brother about it all. He happens to be a virologist. We've agreed that the big problem with all the extrapolations and forecasts of millions dead is that nobody has a clue how many people get infected, have an immune response, but never have symptoms and maybe never become infectious. It's clear that pretty much all children and <20 follow this path.

As for becoming less dependent on China etc - ain't gonna happen, because the lowest price always wins. My favourite subject in that regard is supply of rare earths. They are essential for all sorts of things (notably electric motors) and they all come from China. There are plenty of reserves elsewhere, but every time anyone tries to reopen a mine, they fail because it's cheaper to get it from China. (Actually the last attempt in the US went broke, got bought by a Chinese company, then shut down). Do governments say "this stuff matters, we'll subsidise local production"? Hell no. Rinse and repeat for everything else.

Last edited by n5296s; 20th Mar 2020 at 19:31.
n5296s is online now  
Old 20th Mar 2020, 18:48
  #267 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2020
Location: Bucharest
Posts: 77
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Originally Posted by 733driver View Post
Thank you. I'm flabbergasted that this isn't obvious to some people.
I agree. Calling it "just a flu" is like calling MCAS running amok "just a trim runaway". Interestingly, initial reactions here when the MCAS issues were revealed were similar: "it's just media/social media induced hysteria" or "why is this such a big issue, you just do X".

I think the people downplaying COVID-19 will change their tune when their local hospitals are overwhelmed and long queues start forming at the cemeteries, like it's happening now in Italy.

Yes, technically it's a flu. But a flu that is very easy to spread and has demonstrated its ability to overwhelm healthcare facilities very fast, and seems to be more lethal compared to regular flu. But, since exponential growth is unintuitive to most people, it's hard for many to understand that having a perfectly manageable number of cases today can turn into hell in just a week or so.

Yes, we shouldn't panic, as panic doesn't solve anything. Yes, we should try to protect businesses and the economy. But don't call it "just a flu". It really isn't. And in my opinion the authorities are not overreacting. In fact I think in most cases they are underreacting and not taking strong enough measures until it's too late.
MikeSnow is offline  
Old 20th Mar 2020, 19:02
  #268 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Location: The South
Posts: 234
Received 1 Like on 1 Post
I am amazed at those who still brand this Virus a media hype; oh that it were. Speaking to my doctor the other day he quoted his contacts globally (he is a well connectd multilingual man) and from all the affected areas the feedback is the same. In his words "This is a very nasty virus; make sure you don't get it. If you do, you may have no more than 2 weeks left; that is a common exoerience speaking to doctors in Italy, Iran and the Middle East" So, go on dismissing it as just another flue bug and ignore the restrictions and whilst you may survive you could pass it on to someone who won't. That seems rather selfish.
Timmy Tomkins is offline  
Old 20th Mar 2020, 20:22
  #269 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2009
Location: Malta
Posts: 88
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Originally Posted by Uplinker View Post
According to the CDC, 3,000 people have died from the Covid19 virus but 20,000 people have died from Flu in the current season.

According to a virologist on the radio yesterday: 1/5 of people exposed will catch Covid19. Only 1/5 of those will display symptoms. So that's 4% of people who have been exposed, by my maths, or 1 in 25. Of those, most will just have a fever and a dry cough.

Time to stop panicking.

Wash your hands - with water and soap - more than usual and take multi vitamins and minerals.
I mean quotes like this were where we can start separating the smart from the less so. So much more to it.. UK and the USA. Wed to wake up fast.. and they are not alone.
uberwang is offline  
Old 20th Mar 2020, 21:26
  #270 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Cork
Age: 44
Posts: 38
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Originally Posted by beardy View Post
Oh I think we would have noticed an increased death rate. Consider the problems that the Italians are having in their hospitals.
What's happening in Northern Italy is a example of what could happen in any region if precautions aren't taken. Media hype my arse, the stories coming out of there are frightening.
widebody69 is offline  
Old 20th Mar 2020, 21:37
  #271 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Cork
Age: 44
Posts: 38
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Originally Posted by uberwang View Post
I mean quotes like this were where we can start separating the smart from the less so. So much more to it.. UK and the USA. Wed to wake up fast.. and they are not alone.
+1. The flu is widespread and has killed 20k, covid has only reached a fraction of the population and has killed 3k. Not comparable. I can't understand why people still think this is over hyped when northern Italy is actually demonstrating in front of us what can happen in our own region. Was it a backlog of 132 bodies for a crematorium that can only process 25 a day? That's hardly business as usual ffs.
widebody69 is offline  
Old 20th Mar 2020, 22:03
  #272 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Florida
Posts: 4,567
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
This thread has run amok and has little to do with aviation and more to do with what makes the sky fall.

I caution about listening to false prophets and instead pay attention to applied science to a collection of facts taher than what-ifs or one-offs

Lets get back to the thread subject
lomapaseo is offline  
Old 20th Mar 2020, 23:11
  #273 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: Europe
Posts: 4
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Bergamo - North of Italy

Bergamo is a lovely and very rich city in the North of Italy. Possibly one of the most efficient and beautiful towns on the planet. Bergamo even includes Unesco World Heritage sites. Top quality of life and highly productive across various industries. Very rich. Top of the top in Italy, highly efficient and highly organised. One of the best NHS in the world. Top Consultants. Top equipment.
Bergamo has witnessed military trucks moving coffins out of town. This means that the rest of the world is basically fuc**d.
All countries should take this virus very seriously and before it's too late or we will end up with millions of deaths. 9/11 will look like a non event vs Covid19. Wake up human race.

ILS27LEFT is offline  
Old 20th Mar 2020, 23:42
  #274 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
Location: Tent
Posts: 885
Received 6 Likes on 5 Posts
Originally Posted by lomapaseo View Post
This thread has run amok and has little to do with aviation and more to do with what makes the sky fall.

I caution about listening to false prophets and instead pay attention to applied science to a collection of facts taher than what-ifs or one-offs

Lets get back to the thread subject
Not sure there will be an airline in the world that will survive the next 6 months other than in name. The phoenix will be interesting to see.
Bend alot is offline  
Old 21st Mar 2020, 00:52
  #275 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Botswana
Posts: 872
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Originally Posted by ILS27LEFT View Post
Bergamo is a lovely and very rich city in the North of Italy. Possibly one of the most efficient and beautiful towns on the planet. Bergamo even includes Unesco World Heritage sites. Top quality of life and highly productive across various industries. Very rich. Top of the top in Italy, highly efficient and highly organised. One of the best NHS in the world. Top Consultants. Top equipment.
Bergamo has witnessed military trucks moving coffins out of town. This means that the rest of the world is basically fuc**d.
All countries should take this virus very seriously and before it's too late or we will end up with millions of deaths. 9/11 will look like a non event vs Covid19. Wake up human race.
Whats the mean age of the hospitalisations there and what’s the mode age of the deaths recorded? Genuine question.
RexBanner is offline  
Old 21st Mar 2020, 00:59
  #276 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Canada
Posts: 577
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Originally Posted by RexBanner View Post
Whats the mean age of the hospitalisations there and what’s the mode age of the deaths recorded? Genuine question.

L.A. County confirms 61 new coronavirus cases, says median age among all patients is 47

Yes, Young People Are Falling Seriously Ill From Covid-19

In the U.S., 705 of first 2,500 cases range in age from 20 to 44.
And in Italy
More than 99% of Italy’s coronavirus fatalities were people who suffered from previous medical conditions, according to a study by the country’s national health authority.
Longtimer is offline  
Old 21st Mar 2020, 01:07
  #277 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Botswana
Posts: 872
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
The media are spinning this regardless of how you regard the seriousness of the actual virus. I saw a banner headline the other day of a young guy in his twenties “killed by the Coronavirus”. Buried deeper down in the article somewhere it was revealed that he also had leukaemia (!) That’s disgusting journalism IMHO and is only feeding the frenzy, there’s a huge bit of context there that is being deliberately suppressed.
RexBanner is offline  
Old 21st Mar 2020, 01:12
  #278 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Location: Isla Grande
Posts: 985
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
From the study (Italy) mentioned by Longtimer:
(death toll men, women, total)



gearlever is offline  
Old 21st Mar 2020, 01:16
  #279 (permalink)  
Moderator
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Ontario, Canada
Age: 61
Posts: 5,352
Received 11 Likes on 8 Posts
Lets get back to the thread subject
Yeah... I take:

Who will survive this and be here in 6 months?
The "Who" to be an airline, rather than a person. Let's discuss the airline industry in this thread please. I know we all have our concerns ans beliefs with respect to the virus' effect on people, that's for a discussion elsewhere. Airplanes/Airlines/Pilot jobs here...
Pilot DAR is offline  
Old 21st Mar 2020, 01:19
  #280 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Botswana
Posts: 872
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Originally Posted by ILS27LEFT View Post
Bergamo is a lovely and very rich city in the North of Italy. Possibly one of the most efficient and beautiful towns on the planet. Bergamo even includes Unesco World Heritage sites. Top quality of life and highly productive across various industries. Very rich. Top of the top in Italy, highly efficient and highly organised. One of the best NHS in the world. Top Consultants. Top equipment.
And crap ATC...(to bring it back to aviation )
RexBanner is offline  

Thread Tools
Search this Thread

Contact Us - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service - Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information

Copyright © 2023 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.