PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - Who will survive this and be here in 6 months ?
Old 22nd Apr 2020, 16:02
  #466 (permalink)  
Jetscream 32
 
Join Date: Nov 2001
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It's certainly not about throwing the towel in - it is about the ability to repay the £600 million it has drawn down due for repayment in March 2021 (which will come round very quickly) as required by HMG as part of the credit paper - If you have to dip further into other credit revolver facilities having leveraged yourself before the market recovers to a point of viability then you start to run out of runway very quickly.

Of all the airlines EZY is by far the most viable, along with the Green machine, however, my point being is that absolutely no-one is talking about recovery planning financial forecasts - they are just saying we can last this long based us on having this much money in the bank or that can be drawn upon.

Lasting any amount of time is one thing but saying - when we eventually get airborne again in 'x' months, we expect to utilise 'x' amount of the fleet at 'x' load factor over 'x' amount of time increasing at an average rate of 'x' per quarter - this will then at least demonstrate they have got a handle on reality and confidence that it has been financially modelled, thought about and that the staff will feel confident - this SHOULD be done so that the staff at least know there is a long term future and they are not going to be hung out to dry if the situation didn't go as the board predicted.

Thinking there is going to be some magic snap back to November 2019 normality is not happening anytime soon. We are all desperate for it to and I doubt there is a single person that doesn't want it to happen lightning-quick, but it shouldn't stop anyone being realistic and modelling what a re-start looks like
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