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AF 447 Thread no. 4

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AF 447 Thread no. 4

Old 6th Jul 2011, 17:11
  #881 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by bearfoil
takata
howdy sir. I think the CVR reports thus: (2:10:16?)
PF: "So, the speeds are lost."
PNF: "Alternate Law"
Usual Tunnel reading?
Originally Posted by BEA
At 2 h 10 min 16, the PNF said "so, we’ve lost the speeds" then "alternate law […]".
Not a single word from the PF, hence this is an imaginatory mutual aknowledgement of the problem!
Those informations are displayed on the pilot flying PFD though. And this would be shown at 0210:05 from the DFDR tracks (alternate law prot lost, loss of speed function for caracteristic speed computation, etc.).
Please, don't make up the few data we have in order to fit your theories.
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Old 6th Jul 2011, 17:14
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Question raised 3 days ago by bubbers44:

They were cruising at M .80 at FL350 so how much static pressure change with a climb would it take to go above mach limit with a blocked pitot tube?
Assuming a blocked pitot (business end + drain) and total pressure trapped inside the tube at FL350 / 275 KCAS / M 0.808 yelds:

FL375 / 302 KCAS / M 0.922
FL380 / 306 KCAS / M 0.944

NB: corrected from an erroneous previous post which I deleted.
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Old 6th Jul 2011, 17:49
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Dropped cats and water glasses

Try to think about they "why" of the mostly NU inputs during the deep stall ride down I realized I do not have a real "feel" for what the PF was sensing as opposed to seeing on his displays.

So the question to those who know how to calculate such things are:

A: What was the force vector through the PF's seat during the descent given the pitch and other forces?

Aka what would the water in a glass do, we all know where the cat would go (firmly atached to nearest scalp by all available claws).

B:How does this compare to the "real" forces experienced during simulator sessions where due to movement limits some forces (such as acceleration) are simulated by brief movements followed by pitch?

Looking for why the extreme pitch up being indicated may have been disregarded by the PF.
(PF's remark at 02:12:02: "I don't have any more indications" ?)

Could he have been (against training of course) be fooled into thinking the plane was in level flight.

Aplogies in advance if I have missed this I have read most of the posts as they arrive but could have missed some, please provide a link if this has been analyzed before.
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Old 6th Jul 2011, 18:00
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Originally Posted by CONF iture
From my personal experience, I just don't know what my partner is doing with his sidestick. At best, and it's not necessarily better, I'm guessing ...
And we know you don't like it - lord knows we've heard it enough times... Doesn't mean it's necessarily worse either.

When the captain came back, he probably took the middle jumpseat, from where, you hardly see any of the sidesticks ... How can he evaluate the flight control inputs ?
He could definitely see the fact that they were nose-high, which was clearly visible on the ADI indicators - that should have given him a hint. To my eyes it also looks pretty difficult to judge a traditional airliner yoke fore/aft position from the angle of that seat, so I'm dubious as to how much difference it would have made. Please don't try to make the situation fit your particular gripes with the aircraft.

And forget about falling asleep at that time. Did the captain fall asleep as well after entering the cockpit ? Is it why the BEA could not publish any comment from him ...
Note I said "perhaps" - by which I meant I'm speculating way out in left field. I'm not saying that's what happened, I'm not even saying it was likely. But given that we've exhausted what we can glean from the data at hand and we're into equally left-field suggestions of byzantine software failures and the like, I thought it should be mentioned as a possibility.

It's amazing that the design and systems (and by implication those that designed and built them) can come in for all kinds of bashing from those who do not know or understand them and it is accepted as normal, yet advance the possibility that a pilot may have lost focus, or the miniscule possibility that he might have fallen asleep and some people are up in arms.
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Old 6th Jul 2011, 18:06
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With respect, takata, I don't think you understood what I was talking about.

It would be useful to consider what the reaction to stall warning training is and how it is done. (Or was). Some pages back, a very useful description of the 2005 vintage of that procedure was linked to.

The condition/response set isn't the same issue to address as "reaction to UAS training," which is a malfunction of a lesser order.

EDIT for clarity: what the crew was confronted with is the classic training challenge of dealing with cascading and / or compound malfunctions/emergencies. (Note: some will argue that the more dire may have been a crew induced, but that doesn't change what problems they were faced with solving).
Here's your situation, handle it like a good crew should, oh, and here's another on top of that, off you go ... In situations like that, how you train has substantial influence on how you act (and don't act) in the air.

Perhaps best to leave the tunnel analysis in the Alps, near the Brenner Pass.

Last edited by Lonewolf_50; 6th Jul 2011 at 20:25.
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Old 6th Jul 2011, 18:07
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Hello CJ;
When the air data part of an ADIRU goes 'belly-up' (in this case because of UAS) does that mean that the possibly still valid data such as altitude and vertical speed (static pressure data only) are also thrown out with the bathwater, or are there separate 'flags' (F/Ws) for separate data such as IAS, Mach, TAT, Alt and VS ?
Vertical speed is a baro-inertial computation. The display is normally inertially-based but the VS based upon barometric computations can be displayed in "degraded mode". Altitude is also a baro-inertial computation, the complexities of which, from what I have read, would take the rest of the thread to convey - but I suspect that both VS and Altitude information would be displayed as depicted in the picture of the PFD just posted. The problem I had in thinking it out was, although the static ports are unaffected and so the source data for baro readings would be available, I just don't know whether an ADR would still transmit valid information while not transmitting invalid information, or whether the entire ADR shuts down. I strongly suspect the former.



The diagram below shows all cautions and warning flags which may be displayed on the PFD.

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Old 6th Jul 2011, 18:09
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I'm confident BEA will put the main fault upon the pilot(s), beside some training and A/C design recommendations, to make AB look good.

In turn, this may raise the question, which planes (AB or B) were subject of a hull loss due to "overstress" (AA 587) or simply "not to understand" (A320 XL Airways) the aircraft.
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Old 6th Jul 2011, 18:09
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ADIRU.

In addition to questions raised and answers given.

The lowest speed value on the speed scale = 60 knots.
CAS set itself on 0 and invalid (NCD) if CAS < 30 Knots (SPD FLAG).
MACH will be 0 and invalid (NCD) if M < .1 = (MACH FLAG).

ADIRU 3 data (normally ISIS) can be used by LH or RH PFD by means of rotary switch.
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Old 6th Jul 2011, 19:11
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In respect of Capt, IMO he realized exact what was going on!
After entering cockpit ordered or pulled T/L into IDLE and ordered ND inputs! see LINK

But - if F/CTL SD page was not selected -he was unable to see THS position from this 3rd seat.

Last edited by Jetdriver; 6th Jul 2011 at 20:21.
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Old 6th Jul 2011, 19:12
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Originally Posted by MurphyWasRight
So the question to those who know how to calculate such things are:

A: What was the force vector through the PF's seat during the descent given the pitch and other forces?
Here we have to make a simplification, because we have no real data about the decelleration of the AC during the descent.
If we assume a linear decelleration from 400kts to 110 kts during ~200s
we have a horizontal decelleration of 0,075g.

Then we have to add the effect of the attitude:
If we take the attitude as being 15° we would see:
~0,96g vertically
~0,25g horizontally
with regard to his seat.
From the horizontal 0,25g we have to subtract the 0,075 *0,96 so we end up with +0,18g felt horizontal acceleration with regard to the seat axis and close to 1g vertically.

All in all the pilots should have felt a relatively stable acceleration feeling with normal vertical g during the descent phase after reaching the -10kfpm
Taking into consideration that the decelleration might have been degressively, the acceleration feeling could have been progressive to some extent.
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Old 6th Jul 2011, 19:22
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DozyWannabe,

That I like it or not does not really matter, that the sidesticks as implemented by Airbus deprive a multicrew from 'very nice to know' information is a fact that you're apparently not in the best position to fully appreciate.

To my eyes it also looks pretty difficult to judge a traditional airliner yoke fore/aft position from the angle of that seat
Let me tell you your eyes are pretty wrong here.

It's amazing that the design and systems (and by implication those that designed and built them) can come in for all kinds of bashing from those who do not know or understand them and it is accepted as normal, yet advance the possibility that a pilot may have lost focus, or the miniscule possibility that he might have fallen asleep and some people are up in arms.
That 3 pilots got very confused seems obvious - At least we'd like to see the full data, not tomorrow, but yesterday.
There is no free bashing, only constructed critics, but you don't seem to be ready to even consider.

A bit scary to think, and I'm not shy to acknowledge, that after 12 years I still don't know or understand my equipment ... or is the equipment a bit complex after all ?
Never mind, I'll take the next 12 hours at 350 to open my books ... and try to get rid of that ignorance.
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Old 6th Jul 2011, 19:25
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Question raised 3 days ago by bubbers44:


Quote:
They were cruising at M .80 at FL350 so how much static pressure change with a climb would it take to go above mach limit with a blocked pitot tube?

Assuming a blocked pitot (business end + drain) and total pressure trapped inside the tube at FL350 / 275 KCAS / M 0.808 yelds:

FL375 / 302 KCAS / M 0.922
FL380 / 306 KCAS / M 0.944

NB: corrected from an erroneous previous post which I deleted.

Thanks DJ77. The only reason I brought this up is to explain why he pulled the nose up. Your data confirms that they had an overspeed warning due to the climb with frozen pitot tubes causing the overspeed warning when static pressure reduced to the lower pressure.

Doesn't this explain how this accident happened the way it did? The PF started a climb when the AP disconnected, got an overspeed and pulled up into a deep stall.
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Old 6th Jul 2011, 19:33
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Re forces, yep once at terminal velocity for the attitude there is no vertical acceleration, in other words the forces up and down match so drag/lift component vertically = 1g. Gravity is pulling your backside down with 1g and the reaction from the a/c via the seat is 1g. Same as in cruise. 40 degree roll excursion may spill some water though.

If a ND input acted to increase vertical speed, sensation of weight would have decreased as you accelerated downwards reaction from seat < 1g as the difference gives the net acceleration. So if the stall warner sounded then you might conclude you were on the verge of stalling. If you think that then clearly you can't be stalled now can you.
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Old 6th Jul 2011, 19:36
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bubbers44
Thanks DJ77. The only reason I brought this up is to explain why he pulled the nose up. Your data confirms that they had an overspeed warning due to the climb with frozen pitot tubes causing the overspeed warning when static pressure reduced to the lower pressure.

Doesn't this explain how this accident happened the way it did? The PF started a climb when the AP disconnected, got an overspeed and pulled up into a deep stall.
And how do you explain TOGA in an overspeed?
Just curious.
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Old 6th Jul 2011, 19:39
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@A33Zab - you're quoting CONF, not me...

Originally Posted by CONF iture
A bit scary to think, and I'm not shy to acknowledge, that after 12 years I still don't know or understand my equipment ... or is the equipment a bit complex after all?
I suspect you'd understand it better if you didn't have such a problem with it since 1988. If you hate the Airbus FBW flightdeck so much, why haven't you transferred to Boeing?

Originally Posted by bubbers44
Your data confirms that they had an overspeed warning due to the climb with frozen pitot tubes causing the overspeed warning when static pressure reduced to the lower pressure.
No it does not. The numbers are threre to trigger the overspeed warning *if the numbers are valid*. The numbers at that time were not valid, and so if the design flows the way I think it does, the overspeed warning is inhibited.

Last edited by DozyWannabe; 6th Jul 2011 at 20:28.
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Old 6th Jul 2011, 20:08
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Originally Posted by PJ2
someone else said the aircraft was still at about 215kts and not stalled at the apogee
Just in case my post #792 (p.40) was unclear:
Originally Posted by HN39
At that point they had about 215 kCAS and were not stalled.
I was referring to the point where v/s had been reduced to 700 fpm, before climb was resumed. I believe stall occurred around 02:11:00 just before apogee, speed at apogee would have been about M.6/185 kCAS (BEA data 2:11:06).
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Old 6th Jul 2011, 20:14
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Thank you HN39...I do recall now.
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Old 6th Jul 2011, 20:33
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A33Zab, pls be a little patient with this SLF but where is the evidence for a sustained ND input ? The whole discussion about the relative authority of the elevators v THS seemed to be along the lines that failure to manually trim frustrated the efforts to get the nose down. I didn't understand any of that from what I have read as I didn't see a sustained attempt at ND, and in any case there was a post claiming that the elevator design does provide enough authority (although in that dirty air who can be sure).

Sorry if I have misrepresented your argument.
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Old 6th Jul 2011, 20:48
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A33Zab:

In respect of Capt, IMO he realized exact what was going on!
After entering cockpit ordered or pulled T/L into IDLE and ordered ND inputs! see LINK
I don't see it quite as definitively, but I suspect you may be right on the TL's to idle. If the ND inputs were ordered I'm surprised (but only a bit) that the BEA didn't include the CVR for that exchange - in my opinion that would be quite significant.

BEA:
At around 2 h 11 min 40, the Captain re-entered the cockpit. During the following seconds, all of the recorded speeds became invalid and the stall warning stopped.

The altitude was then about 35,000 ft, the angle of attack exceeded 40 degrees and the vertical speed was about -10,000 ft/min. The airplane’s pitch attitude did not exceed 15 degrees and the engines’ N1’s were close to 100%. The airplane was subject to roll oscillations that sometimes reached 40 degrees. The PF made an input on the sidestick to the left and nose-up stops, which lasted about 30 seconds.

At 2 h 12 min 02, the PF said "I don’t have any more indications", and the PNF said "we have no valid indications". At that moment, the thrust levers were in the IDLE detent and the engines’ N1’s were at 55%. Around fifteen seconds later, the PF made pitch-down inputs. In the following moments, the angle of attack decreased, the speeds became valid again and the stall warning sounded again.

At 2 h 13 min 32, the PF said "we’re going to arrive at level one hundred". About fifteen seconds later, simultaneous inputs by both pilots on the sidesticks were recorded and the PF said "go ahead you have the controls".
Immediately following the Pilot's arrival, we have 30 seconds of sustained NU though.
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Old 6th Jul 2011, 21:07
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@ HN39

stall occurred around 02:11:00

Just for the record.
Totally agree with this.



I like to add that 2nd Speed drop took place around @ 2:11:50
and triggered the NAV ADR DISAGREE message after 10 sec and
FPV Flags on both PFDs.
This event was not caused by Pitot Icing but due to the insensivity of a
pitot probe at hi AOA and pitch (40 + 15) and air flow disturbance due to
fuselage at such a flight path.


"At around 2 h 11 min 40 ,the Captain re-entered the cockpit.
During the following seconds, all of the recorded
speeds became invalid and the stall warning stopped.

Note: When the measured speeds are below 60 kt, the measured
angle of attack values are considered invalid and are not taken into
account by the systems.
When they are below 30 kt, the speed values themselves are considered
invalid.

The altitude was then about 35,000 ft, the angle of attack
exceeded 40 degrees.... The airplane’s pitch attitude did
not exceed 15 degrees......

At 2 h 12 min 02, the PF said
"I don’t have any more indications", and the PNF said "we
have no valid indications".

Around fifteen seconds later, the PF made pitch-down inputs.
In the following moments, the angle of attack
decreased, the speeds became valid again and the
stall warning sounded again.
........
The angle of attack, when it was valid, always remained
above 35 degrees. "
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