The Met Office - not fit for purpose?
Join Date: Jun 2000
Location: last time I looked I was still here.
Posts: 4,507
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
"BBC forecast last night said Northern Ireland would have a sunny morning - front not further North than Dublin by late morning, expecting it early evening in Glasgow (7-8pm) "
Surely you are not saying, are you, that jo-public gets notice about the position and movement and speed of fronts, but that has all been removed from the sig wx. chart of us professionals. Regarding the confidence one could have in forecasts, seeing the position of fronts, and their likely direction of travel, gave me much relevant info, especially when on long-haul. However, given that a European average 4 sector day is landing back 11 hours after you've started, it is still relvant info, especially if TS/CB's are forecast. The question about their removal was asked months ago, but I never saw a definitive answer about it. Perhaps Metman & Techno Freak can help.
Surely you are not saying, are you, that jo-public gets notice about the position and movement and speed of fronts, but that has all been removed from the sig wx. chart of us professionals. Regarding the confidence one could have in forecasts, seeing the position of fronts, and their likely direction of travel, gave me much relevant info, especially when on long-haul. However, given that a European average 4 sector day is landing back 11 hours after you've started, it is still relvant info, especially if TS/CB's are forecast. The question about their removal was asked months ago, but I never saw a definitive answer about it. Perhaps Metman & Techno Freak can help.
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: devon
Age: 63
Posts: 9
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Something to do with the fact that sig weather charts are generally high level charts and the depiction of fronts on charts shows their surface position which is not particularly relevant when you are cruising at FL350. Areas of Cb will ,of course, still be depicted. 
Join Date: Jun 2000
Location: last time I looked I was still here.
Posts: 4,507
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Fireball: We are discussing TAF's. The legal limits are for landing, not cruising. I want to know what to expect when I am on the approach and which direction to escape in if it is not good. Thus I want to know if there are fronts around, where they are moving, and how active they are. That's what I want and I can't get it. It has been removed, and I am the customer. The tail is wagging the dog. The info was removed with no consultation with the end user. The service has been diluted and I don't know why. Hence I'm pi#$ed off.
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Not a million miles from EGTF
Age: 68
Posts: 1,579
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
The problem, as I see it, is that TAFs are limited to what one can expect at a destination. The local TAF for me is in a different weather zone to my home airfield.
Looking at Airmet is less than useful as it is full of vague detail.
A few weeks back I flew through a weather zone that was unforecast on the sites I was able to access on my mobile phone. I'd phoned various airfields along the route and all assured me that the TAFs and METARs agreed and that the flight would be safe-ish.
In fact in 'bandit country' between the TAFs was an area of weather that was nothing like the surrounding TAfs were showing.
At my point of departure and arrival all was fine, but for a 15 mile area in the cruise, the weather was marginal, to say the least.
Being a VFR-only pilot that was 'interesting'.....
Looking at Airmet is less than useful as it is full of vague detail.
A few weeks back I flew through a weather zone that was unforecast on the sites I was able to access on my mobile phone. I'd phoned various airfields along the route and all assured me that the TAFs and METARs agreed and that the flight would be safe-ish.
In fact in 'bandit country' between the TAFs was an area of weather that was nothing like the surrounding TAfs were showing.
At my point of departure and arrival all was fine, but for a 15 mile area in the cruise, the weather was marginal, to say the least.
Being a VFR-only pilot that was 'interesting'.....
Join Date: Dec 1999
Location: Berks, UK
Posts: 51
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Robin, I think you need to have a serious think about the information you are using, and what you are using it for. TAF = Terminal Area Forecast... therefore its the forecast for the airfield its written for - nowhere else. Clue is in the title... 
Its not an en-route forecast, so don't treat it as such, otherwise you're just asking for trouble! For your own safety and the safety of others, get a forecast or product thats designed for the job, and don't try to bodge it with local forecasts / observations that tell you nothing about the conditions in between!
I've been out of the frontline Met business for a while now, so I can't really say why fronts have been removed from charts and suchlike - I agree - it seems daft as they are significant features that don't just affect surface weather conditions! So why don't they appear on the SigWx??? What chart number / Metform product is it you're using? Own goal by the Met Office there I feel... It may be a technical issue with some of the newer systems they are using?
Have you tried feeding this back officially and directly to the Met Office?? At least you might get an official explanation and if there is enough feedback saying the same thing, portentially a resolution.
Its not an en-route forecast, so don't treat it as such, otherwise you're just asking for trouble! For your own safety and the safety of others, get a forecast or product thats designed for the job, and don't try to bodge it with local forecasts / observations that tell you nothing about the conditions in between!I've been out of the frontline Met business for a while now, so I can't really say why fronts have been removed from charts and suchlike - I agree - it seems daft as they are significant features that don't just affect surface weather conditions! So why don't they appear on the SigWx??? What chart number / Metform product is it you're using? Own goal by the Met Office there I feel... It may be a technical issue with some of the newer systems they are using?
Have you tried feeding this back officially and directly to the Met Office?? At least you might get an official explanation and if there is enough feedback saying the same thing, portentially a resolution.
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: devon
Posts: 5
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Low level wx charts still have fronts, its only the Sig WX charts that don't. The Met O and the other WAFC in USA produce sig wx weather for ICAO, therefore if ICAO say they don't want fronts, then that's why they were removed, along with cloud types causing the mod ice and turb, and cloud amounts on the euro chart (prehaps to make the charts easier to automate????). However I have heard a rumour - can't remember where from - that due to popular demand, fronts may be making a comeback sometime sooner or later. Perhaps someone from ICAO actually reads these posts and could comment?
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: llantwit major
Posts: 4
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
its the weather
remember back in the '70s at an airfield in germany, asked a forecaster
why the wx disagreed so often with the forecast. He showed me a huge
formula for the basic ground temp....if any of the inputs were wrong,
then so was the wx!
Later, in the '80s, another a/f, 'nother f/cster; gave me a crap deal for the next day....asked for his opinion....new ball game!
After Bracknell got it's NOO KOMPUTA with the latest 12 layer atmosphere..
3rd f/caster said "..it'll be alright if the sky knows it's layered"
so, you pays yer money.........
why the wx disagreed so often with the forecast. He showed me a huge
formula for the basic ground temp....if any of the inputs were wrong,
then so was the wx!
Later, in the '80s, another a/f, 'nother f/cster; gave me a crap deal for the next day....asked for his opinion....new ball game!
After Bracknell got it's NOO KOMPUTA with the latest 12 layer atmosphere..
3rd f/caster said "..it'll be alright if the sky knows it's layered"
so, you pays yer money.........
As ever the complete lack of understanding of the complexity of meteorology is lost on the average Jo. Not fit for purpose? Fair enough, let's have an experiment whereby the Met Office doesn't bother issuing any forecasts for aviation. I wonder what would happen?
The CAA pay the Met O a big lump of £££ for their services and as such the CAA dictates TAF length/code/issue times etc etc. Tom Tom 91 is a case in point. "I don't know if I can go flying tomorrow as there's no TAF for Biggin Hill" Good to see you have a clue......not. Biggin shuts overnight, and hey, whaddya know, when an airfield is CLOSED as Biggin is from about 2100L, then there won't be a TAF valid for it. And there still won't be until the METARs for Biggin appear in the morning. If you want a 24 hour TAF for Biggin go cry to the CAA.
TAFs are not infallible, and the rules for their coding restrict how much can be put in there. Weather is more complex than any of us understand, and in my mind the boys and girls of the Met O do a good job. Heathrow Director.....your successors seem happy enough with the Met product. Short memories some people. It was only two or three years ago that the Met O correctly forecast dense, persistent freezing fog at EGLL, the week before Chrimbo. The first warnings were issued 48-72 hours in advance. Spot-on forecast (I know....blassed up a Chrimbo holiday for me!).
You lot should try using US TAFs......though I doubt many of you would be able to understand them........
The CAA pay the Met O a big lump of £££ for their services and as such the CAA dictates TAF length/code/issue times etc etc. Tom Tom 91 is a case in point. "I don't know if I can go flying tomorrow as there's no TAF for Biggin Hill" Good to see you have a clue......not. Biggin shuts overnight, and hey, whaddya know, when an airfield is CLOSED as Biggin is from about 2100L, then there won't be a TAF valid for it. And there still won't be until the METARs for Biggin appear in the morning. If you want a 24 hour TAF for Biggin go cry to the CAA.
TAFs are not infallible, and the rules for their coding restrict how much can be put in there. Weather is more complex than any of us understand, and in my mind the boys and girls of the Met O do a good job. Heathrow Director.....your successors seem happy enough with the Met product. Short memories some people. It was only two or three years ago that the Met O correctly forecast dense, persistent freezing fog at EGLL, the week before Chrimbo. The first warnings were issued 48-72 hours in advance. Spot-on forecast (I know....blassed up a Chrimbo holiday for me!).
You lot should try using US TAFs......though I doubt many of you would be able to understand them........
Some people should take the time out to look at accuracy of weather reporting. The MET office have an accuracy factor for fronts and cloudbase. Go take a look at what that is and you'll be surprised. Cloudbase can be something like 500' different to the forecast and the front position can be (IIRC) something like 90 miles out.
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: Sussex
Posts: 27
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Paying for met services
How many GA pilots out there pay the additional aviation subcription to the Met office for the additional services?
I have subscribed for two years but now wonder about whether this is worth doing. Some of the subscription information eg. hourly IR and visible satellite pics are available from a different part of the Met office site - free of charge.
5 day pressure charts are available free from other providers.
But perhaps the most useful bits which are only available through subscription - visibility forecast charts, mesoscale charts, lightning charts - all come with a safety warning that they must not be used for flight planning purposes. So what's left.
I've scanned through this thread and apologies to you all if this point has already been made.
I have subscribed for two years but now wonder about whether this is worth doing. Some of the subscription information eg. hourly IR and visible satellite pics are available from a different part of the Met office site - free of charge.
5 day pressure charts are available free from other providers.
But perhaps the most useful bits which are only available through subscription - visibility forecast charts, mesoscale charts, lightning charts - all come with a safety warning that they must not be used for flight planning purposes. So what's left.
I've scanned through this thread and apologies to you all if this point has already been made.
How many GA pilots out there pay the additional aviation subcription to the Met office for the additional services?...But perhaps the most useful bits which are only available through subscription - visibility forecast charts, mesoscale charts, lightning charts - all come with a safety warning that they must not be used for flight planning purposes.
Arrrh! I just love the way the Brits play semantics with their language! They must have very dark, long, cold and boring winters to be so good at their indoor games. The public service bureaucrats almost turn themselves inside out to wield the utmost authority while maintaining the semblance of zero responsibility for the repercussions arising from any decisions they may accidentally take.
"Yes, Minister/Prime Minister" was a particular favourite of mine.
I should add that what the Brit bureaucrats have devised as a smart-ar$e-bully-boy game has been made into an art-form by their Australian colleagues.
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Behind you all the way!
Posts: 359
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
"...is the Met Office fit for purpose...?"
Well based on the quality of the Ladt Met Officers such as Jenny (Brize'), Vicky, (ASI) & Laura (RAF Valley) I would say "Hell!! Yes!!!".
I just wish they'd consider doing a "Calender Girls" calender......
...."Nurse!!!! The screens....QUICK!!!!!"
I just wish they'd consider doing a "Calender Girls" calender......
...."Nurse!!!! The screens....QUICK!!!!!"
They were forecasting winds in the Midlands last night of TEMPO 55kts from the South so loaded some extra fuel. It was no more than 29 kts when we landed and I don't think the wind was much above 35 kts all night!
How can they be so wrong?
How can they be so wrong?
TAF AMD EGNX 132032Z 1320/1418 16025G35KT 9999 -RA SCT012 BKN020
TEMPO 1320/1401 4000 RA BKN007
PROB40 TEMPO 1320/1411 18040G55KT
TEMPO 1408/1414 7000 SHRA
BECMG 1411/1414 24015G25KT=
OK I know PROB 40 means it might not happen so I suppose, technically, the forecast was correct!
SA 14/11/2009 00:20->
METAR EGNX 140020Z 16018KT 8000 RA BKN014 13/11 Q0985=
SA 13/11/2009 23:50->
METAR EGNX 132350Z 17021KT 9999 -RA BKN027 13/11 Q0986=
SA 13/11/2009 23:20->
METAR EGNX 132320Z 17024G35KT 9999 SCT027 14/10 Q0986=
SA 13/11/2009 22:50->
METAR EGNX 132250Z 17021KT 9999 -DZ FEW018 SCT027 BKN035
14/10 Q0987=
SA 13/11/2009 22:20->
METAR EGNX 132220Z 17025G36KT 9999 -DZ FEW018 SCT027 14/10
Q0987=
SA 13/11/2009 21:50->
METAR EGNX 132150Z 17025KT 9999 -DZ SCT019 BKN024 14/10 Q0988=
SA 13/11/2009 21:20->
METAR EGNX 132120Z 17024G36KT 9999 SCT019 BKN024 14/11 Q0988=
SA 13/11/2009 20:50->
METAR EGNX 132050Z 16025G36KT 9999 -RA FEW013 SCT019 BKN024
14/11 Q0989=
SA 13/11/2009 20:20->
METAR EGNX 132020Z 16026KT 9999 RA SCT013 BKN024 14/11 Q0988=
SA 13/11/2009 19:50->
METAR EGNX 131950Z 15022KT 9999 RA FEW005 SCT013 BKN024 13/11
Q0989=
SA 13/11/2009 19:20->
METAR EGNX 131920Z 14016KT 9999 RA FEW005 SCT013 BKN020 12/10
Q0990=
SA 13/11/2009 18:50->
METAR EGNX 131850Z 12016KT 9000 RA BKN005 10/09 Q0991=
SA 13/11/2009 18:20->
METAR EGNX 131820Z 11015KT 9000 RA SCT005 BKN038 10/09 Q0992=
TEMPO 1320/1401 4000 RA BKN007
PROB40 TEMPO 1320/1411 18040G55KT
TEMPO 1408/1414 7000 SHRA
BECMG 1411/1414 24015G25KT=
OK I know PROB 40 means it might not happen so I suppose, technically, the forecast was correct!
SA 14/11/2009 00:20->
METAR EGNX 140020Z 16018KT 8000 RA BKN014 13/11 Q0985=
SA 13/11/2009 23:50->
METAR EGNX 132350Z 17021KT 9999 -RA BKN027 13/11 Q0986=
SA 13/11/2009 23:20->
METAR EGNX 132320Z 17024G35KT 9999 SCT027 14/10 Q0986=
SA 13/11/2009 22:50->
METAR EGNX 132250Z 17021KT 9999 -DZ FEW018 SCT027 BKN035
14/10 Q0987=
SA 13/11/2009 22:20->
METAR EGNX 132220Z 17025G36KT 9999 -DZ FEW018 SCT027 14/10
Q0987=
SA 13/11/2009 21:50->
METAR EGNX 132150Z 17025KT 9999 -DZ SCT019 BKN024 14/10 Q0988=
SA 13/11/2009 21:20->
METAR EGNX 132120Z 17024G36KT 9999 SCT019 BKN024 14/11 Q0988=
SA 13/11/2009 20:50->
METAR EGNX 132050Z 16025G36KT 9999 -RA FEW013 SCT019 BKN024
14/11 Q0989=
SA 13/11/2009 20:20->
METAR EGNX 132020Z 16026KT 9999 RA SCT013 BKN024 14/11 Q0988=
SA 13/11/2009 19:50->
METAR EGNX 131950Z 15022KT 9999 RA FEW005 SCT013 BKN024 13/11
Q0989=
SA 13/11/2009 19:20->
METAR EGNX 131920Z 14016KT 9999 RA FEW005 SCT013 BKN020 12/10
Q0990=
SA 13/11/2009 18:50->
METAR EGNX 131850Z 12016KT 9000 RA BKN005 10/09 Q0991=
SA 13/11/2009 18:20->
METAR EGNX 131820Z 11015KT 9000 RA SCT005 BKN038 10/09 Q0992=
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Wood's Hole (N4131.0 W07041.5)
Posts: 92
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
US METAR - Where's the Problem?
METAR KABC 121755Z AUTO 21016G24KT 180V240 1SM R11/P6000FT -RA BR BKN 015 OVC025 06/04 A2990 RMK A02 PK WND 20032/25 WSHFT 1715 VIS 3/4V1 1/2 VIS 3/4 RWY11 RAB07 CIG 013V017 CIG 017 RWY11 PRESFR SLP 125 P0003 6009 500640036 10066 21012 58033 TSNO $
Cuthere - A US TAF is simple to decode; a USAF issued TAF is a little tricky, particularly if you haven't experienced one before; but it is a detailed (as should be the case) METAR that can take a little time to decode (as above example).
If you want the DECODE parameters for the above METAR, PM me and I will send them to you.
Cuthere - A US TAF is simple to decode; a USAF issued TAF is a little tricky, particularly if you haven't experienced one before; but it is a detailed (as should be the case) METAR that can take a little time to decode (as above example).
If you want the DECODE parameters for the above METAR, PM me and I will send them to you.
Thread Starter
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: UK
Posts: 59
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
What's the point !
As I said on the first post............ not fit for purpose
Glasgow forecast 25G35 and also prob tempos of 40 kts since Friday morning. They kept pushing the timings back but none of the BECMGs appeared - absolutely none. Variable 5kts would have covered most of the last 24 hours.
This was a UK Health and safety forecast but as you know if they can get it this wrong this way they can get it this wrong the other.
Intellicast - Local Weather Forecast, Reports and Maps
Glasgow forecast 25G35 and also prob tempos of 40 kts since Friday morning. They kept pushing the timings back but none of the BECMGs appeared - absolutely none. Variable 5kts would have covered most of the last 24 hours.
This was a UK Health and safety forecast but as you know if they can get it this wrong this way they can get it this wrong the other.
Intellicast - Local Weather Forecast, Reports and Maps
More bang for your buck
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: land of the clanger
Age: 82
Posts: 3,512
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
This is a useful source of recent, current and forecast winds for the UK: Wind Map - Britain Observations
Join Date: May 2008
Location: UK
Posts: 200
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
...meanwhile, people expect them to have any idea about climate change?
I've found the shipping forecast to be as reliable as anything, and far more accurate than anything on BBC TV. Please bring back the synoptic charts!!!!!
ECAM Actions.
I've found the shipping forecast to be as reliable as anything, and far more accurate than anything on BBC TV. Please bring back the synoptic charts!!!!!
ECAM Actions.