The Met Office - not fit for purpose?
Just Wondering/ECAM - I take no notice of the WX 'forecast'!
Just landed today @ LPL. Nice!
Are they getting more and more unreliable?! I know cyclic depressions like the one we had today, cannot be accurately predicted, ie, where they track, but is it me, or does technology march forward, but leaves behind the forecasting ability of the met office?!
It's now predicted by a bank of computers, unlike the old days when it was from direct observations from weather stations scattered about the UK and Azores, interpreted by forecasters!
All you get nowadays is 'a chance of showers/rain/snow' etc!
Just landed today @ LPL. Nice!
Are they getting more and more unreliable?! I know cyclic depressions like the one we had today, cannot be accurately predicted, ie, where they track, but is it me, or does technology march forward, but leaves behind the forecasting ability of the met office?!
It's now predicted by a bank of computers, unlike the old days when it was from direct observations from weather stations scattered about the UK and Azores, interpreted by forecasters!
All you get nowadays is 'a chance of showers/rain/snow' etc!
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The super computer must have broken as the Met office website asks...
"Is it snowing in your area? Send your reports to us."
And the heavy snow that the South was forecast to get by mid afternoon today has not happened.
Oh well, keeps Tescos busy as every idiot goes panic buying.
"Is it snowing in your area? Send your reports to us."
And the heavy snow that the South was forecast to get by mid afternoon today has not happened.
Oh well, keeps Tescos busy as every idiot goes panic buying.
well not that bad
I thought the Met Office have actually been better than usual forecasting this snow: bit of a change from a few years back when they seemed to guess (or their computer guessed)..
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I think not. They forecast snow, but got the location of the falls badly wrong, as I found in the weeks before Christmas.
Their problem is that to justify their existence they are pushing the limits of accuracy beyond their ability to deliver.
It would be nice to see a bit of humility from them, but no. I heard a Metman try to explain that winter temperatures so far are (on average) just a little below their predicted levels.
As my dear old dad says, if you are in a deep hole, stop digging.....
Their problem is that to justify their existence they are pushing the limits of accuracy beyond their ability to deliver.
It would be nice to see a bit of humility from them, but no. I heard a Metman try to explain that winter temperatures so far are (on average) just a little below their predicted levels.
As my dear old dad says, if you are in a deep hole, stop digging.....
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This is my first post on this forum having been a lurker for well over 2 years and the weather thread really has prompted my response. I have been an aviator for over 30 years and a weather watcher for longer and I must say, that in my honest opinion, the Met Office IS no longer fit for purpose. I live just 13 miles (on Dartmoor) from the new Met Office and their Super Computer, and believe me, the level of forcasting is, at best, woeful. I look at Meteox24 every day (every 6 hours) and simply see things they do not, for quite simply, they look at a computer model, I look at the weather. They have lost the ability to see the bleedin' obvious..and I fear we have a Fast Finger Freddy as the chief forcaster...and we all know what that means!
And whadya know, wake up to a light dusting of snow and not the original 6 inches. They however had changed their forecast at 6pm last night after the panic forecast at 5pm, so they change their forecasts like a whores drawers on payday..bound to get it right somewhere!
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The level of unprofessionalism shown in many of these threads with regards to aviation meteorology is, frankly, astonishing. I consider the art of Met Bashing has, over the years, developed a significant flight safety hazard culture within the professional and private aviation community. This bad attitude shown by the aviation industry towards meteorology and weather forecasters starts on day 1; I've witnessed many experienced trainers cultivating this unsafe attitude from ab-initio students upwards, both in the civil and military environments. Is the Met Offce fit for purpose? I say whole-heartidly YES. Many of the complaints on this thread with regards to the perceived accuracy of forecasts, stem from the recent changes imposed on the Met Office by the CAA. It is the CAA that is reponsible for the provision of met forecasts and observations within the civil aviation community. I understand the Met Office has simply had to respond to changes inposed on them by CAA bean counters. Send your complants to the CAA.
We all know and understand that met can go wrong, a healthy awareness of that is essential but in my experience the Met Office forecasts (avaition or otherwise) are generally of a very high standard. The service the Met Office provides generally to the UK, in my opinion, is outstanding and is fantastic value to the CAA and general public alike.
Ignore the forecast and bash the met guys at your peril. Flying in accurately forecast out-of-limits weather has been the downfall of many aircrew over the years and will continue to be so into the future if this disgraceful attitude to met, amongst those that should no better, continues. The global meteorological community has played a very significant role in the improvement of flight safety over the years and the Met Office has been one of the key players in this. Heatrow Director, your brain comment is highly disprectful and reflects more about your professionalism than anything about the Met Office.
We all know and understand that met can go wrong, a healthy awareness of that is essential but in my experience the Met Office forecasts (avaition or otherwise) are generally of a very high standard. The service the Met Office provides generally to the UK, in my opinion, is outstanding and is fantastic value to the CAA and general public alike.
Ignore the forecast and bash the met guys at your peril. Flying in accurately forecast out-of-limits weather has been the downfall of many aircrew over the years and will continue to be so into the future if this disgraceful attitude to met, amongst those that should no better, continues. The global meteorological community has played a very significant role in the improvement of flight safety over the years and the Met Office has been one of the key players in this. Heatrow Director, your brain comment is highly disprectful and reflects more about your professionalism than anything about the Met Office.
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I've been critical of UKMO in the past (and still am in regards to their Global Warming propaganda), however they've got it spot on these past few weeks. Much of the criticism here is OTT and unfair.
General Forecast - widespread heavy snowfall, low temps.
Actuals - widespread heavy snowfall, low temps.
Only the British could find something to moan about that.
Smithy
General Forecast - widespread heavy snowfall, low temps.
Actuals - widespread heavy snowfall, low temps.
Only the British could find something to moan about that.
Smithy
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Flying in accurately forecast out-of-limits weather has been the downfall of many aircrew over the years and will continue to be so into the future if this disgraceful attitude to met, amongst those that should no better, continues.
We had a succession of problems over the past year, where a dire forecast failed to turn up in reality. Being cautious and using Met Office data we cancelled planned flights, and then cursed the Met Office when the forecast weather failed to arrive.
On the other hand, just before Christmas I looked at the Met Office forecast and decided it was suitable for flight. Just after I wheeled the aircraft out, an unforecast snow event dumping 4" of snow on the airfield put the mockers on that.
The later TAF then forecast the snow.
On average I think the MO forecasts are OK, but on most days in the year, forecasting is relatively easy, the weather systems being stable for a number of days.
But it is the difficulty of producing accurate and local forecasts on the tricky days that screws their credibility.
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I watched the Head of UK Met's performance on BBC's Newsnight earlier this week with increasing incredulity. This individual brushed aside criticism of his Department's long term forecasting ability and sought to justify his recent 25% increase in salary, on recent short term bad weather predictions.
I imagine most of us would be astonished to learn of the manpower and infrastructure requirements to fulfill these 'successes'. The burgeoning demands for weather forecasting in the media must represent deep satisfaction to the unemployment recruiters! Virtually every TV/Radio channel seems to need two Met predictions for every broadcast, regurgitating the ever fallible Met timing input
So do we have a service fit for purpose? A resounding unconvinced No from me.
The best forecasters are those whose lives and living are dependent upon
an accurate self prediction eg. farmers, fishermen, pilots and the like.
If we had doppler radars together with the reflective variety available on the internet we could 'sacrifice' the bloated Met Office quango that
continually fails to achieve!
I imagine most of us would be astonished to learn of the manpower and infrastructure requirements to fulfill these 'successes'. The burgeoning demands for weather forecasting in the media must represent deep satisfaction to the unemployment recruiters! Virtually every TV/Radio channel seems to need two Met predictions for every broadcast, regurgitating the ever fallible Met timing input
So do we have a service fit for purpose? A resounding unconvinced No from me.
The best forecasters are those whose lives and living are dependent upon
an accurate self prediction eg. farmers, fishermen, pilots and the like.
If we had doppler radars together with the reflective variety available on the internet we could 'sacrifice' the bloated Met Office quango that
continually fails to achieve!
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I read a few pages back, someone complained cause the fog had showed up early. Fair enough.
I think some pilots take these things a bit too literally.
If I look at a TAF and see there's fog forecast at some point, I just think 'oh-oh, going to be foggy later'. I don't really bother about the times. I just think, going to get foggy-better take a bit of extra gas!
Same with a 'windy' TAF, just assume its going to happen when you're there and make whatever provision you need to.
It's pointless complaining that it got windy/ foggy/ CBey or Snowy at some unforecast moment. It's an inexact science.
I just use it as a good excuse to carry some extra gas.
I think some pilots take these things a bit too literally.
If I look at a TAF and see there's fog forecast at some point, I just think 'oh-oh, going to be foggy later'. I don't really bother about the times. I just think, going to get foggy-better take a bit of extra gas!
Same with a 'windy' TAF, just assume its going to happen when you're there and make whatever provision you need to.
It's pointless complaining that it got windy/ foggy/ CBey or Snowy at some unforecast moment. It's an inexact science.
I just use it as a good excuse to carry some extra gas.
I complained on this forum about fog appearing at LGW that was not in the forecast back on page 1.The visibility was below cat 1 for a period but it burnt off. rapidly.Having flown out of the airport for a number of years I was not surprised that it had formed,but in these cost concious days ,the fact that it was not in the forecast meant that it then becomes difficult to justify carrying a bit extra fuel to cater for the situation where the fog does not disappear quickly and the delays start to accumulate.
In the old days when a human being with good local knowledge wrote the forecasts I believe the airfield forecasts were much better,but you cannot build this knowledge into a few silicon chips in Exeter.
I think there is far too much reliance on computer modelling in the Met Office.As the old saying goes-"Rubbish In=Rubbish Out".
In the old days when a human being with good local knowledge wrote the forecasts I believe the airfield forecasts were much better,but you cannot build this knowledge into a few silicon chips in Exeter.
I think there is far too much reliance on computer modelling in the Met Office.As the old saying goes-"Rubbish In=Rubbish Out".
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Its the unforecast changes that catch us out. I have been caught out by unexpected changes in weather over the years, despite keeping a constant watch on the wx through my iPhone and by phoning ahead.
Yes, it is an inexact science - I would say artform - but the MO don't do themselves any favours by pretending to be more accurate that the data and systems will allow and by their *rse-covering PROB30s.
IMHO they should employ more local forecasters and get out more to see how we use their forecasts. At the recent GA visit to Exeter it was clear they are a very introverted group who don't really engage well with the customer base - esp those who don't pay!!
Yes, it is an inexact science - I would say artform - but the MO don't do themselves any favours by pretending to be more accurate that the data and systems will allow and by their *rse-covering PROB30s.
IMHO they should employ more local forecasters and get out more to see how we use their forecasts. At the recent GA visit to Exeter it was clear they are a very introverted group who don't really engage well with the customer base - esp those who don't pay!!
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The Norwegian Met Office site referred to earlier has, in my experience, been more accurate than the UK Met Office when considering the north of England and Scotland.
The BBC forecast for Friday 8th January - from the Met Office - said the high for whole of the UK would be -10C. It was -5 on the drive through Inverness at 0815 that morning. I suspect the expertise exists at the UK Met Office but its managers want to sex up the weather; too many severe weather warnings in my opinion (crying wolf) and elements of the "Fish Factor".
The BBC forecast for Friday 8th January - from the Met Office - said the high for whole of the UK would be -10C. It was -5 on the drive through Inverness at 0815 that morning. I suspect the expertise exists at the UK Met Office but its managers want to sex up the weather; too many severe weather warnings in my opinion (crying wolf) and elements of the "Fish Factor".
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Throughout this cold snap, down here in the South West (Exeter) the Met Office have been posting minimum temperatures for the area/region of -5. Despite me phoning the BBC (Radio Devon) and informing them that at 9.00pm we already had -8, the Met Office still report minimums 0f -5. In fact, the lowest recorded on my patch was -15. This -15 was beaten by a -18 a day later (as reported on BBC radio Devon and to their Met Man) and it took the Met Office 5 days for them to adjust the minimum temperature reports. Last night the Met forcast (again on the National and regional forcasts) said we would have on and off light snow flurries...well if this is what they call light snow flurries then God help us if it starts to snow proper! We have now had over an inch and the roads are now becoming blocked with the snow falling for well over 4 hours now. The Met office is, as the crow flies, 6 miles from where I'm typing this!!
