The Met Office - not fit for purpose?
Cleverly disguised as a responsible adult
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An intrusion but
BBC NEWS | UK | England | Devon | Weather computer is air polluter
a bit ironic!
From another industry - we have problems with inaccurate forecasts as well!
BBC NEWS | UK | England | Devon | Weather computer is air polluter
a bit ironic!
From another industry - we have problems with inaccurate forecasts as well!
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My point being, with whatever meteorological sources you have, it's much better to evaluate and - if you like - discuss the risks and chances from a healthy mix of raw data and interpreted forecasts and then establish a strategy to cover those risks, rather than insisting on a precise and perfect weather forecast , which for obvious reasons is impossible.
Thanks for your info SIGMET. You are swimming against the tide on this thread; your informed posts are helpful to us all I'm sure.
Any other Metmen, especially aviation Metmen, out there care to offer your thoughts?
Smithy
Last edited by Captain Smithy; 28th Aug 2009 at 06:20. Reason: Spelling error corrected
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The "Barbeque Summer" statement was, as usual, twisted by the British Media, who took it to mean that all Summer was going to be roasting hot and blazing sunshine for months on end. In reality the actual comment used by the Met was something along the lines of "65% odds on for a barbeque Summer"
'The coming summer is 'odds on for a barbecue summer'
If they had been less keen to grab the headlines themselves and instead behaved in a manner more appropriate to a scientific organisation, perhaps the media backlash would have been less severe.
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And that's all it was, a strap line.
All the lazy media did was latch onto the eye-catching title. Not reporting on the whole forecast, but just the line. Yes, the Met press office could be accused of sexing it up, there again that is their job after all. Its how it gets into the public domain in today's world. But all the barbie Summer was was an eye-catching title to draw people to the forecast, which most probably ignored anyway...
...How many of those moaning so much about the "Barbeque Summer" being "wrong" actually read the Summer forecast and understood the limitations behind it?
The press release is hardly the fault of the forecasters, nor is it their fault when people don't read the forecast properly then moan about it being "wrong"... must be a British thing, moan about the weather then blame it on the forecaster because the Wx is cack... obviously too many bloody Daily Mail readers
Smithy
All the lazy media did was latch onto the eye-catching title. Not reporting on the whole forecast, but just the line. Yes, the Met press office could be accused of sexing it up, there again that is their job after all. Its how it gets into the public domain in today's world. But all the barbie Summer was was an eye-catching title to draw people to the forecast, which most probably ignored anyway...
...How many of those moaning so much about the "Barbeque Summer" being "wrong" actually read the Summer forecast and understood the limitations behind it?
The press release is hardly the fault of the forecasters, nor is it their fault when people don't read the forecast properly then moan about it being "wrong"... must be a British thing, moan about the weather then blame it on the forecaster because the Wx is cack... obviously too many bloody Daily Mail readers
Smithy
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How many of those moaning so much about the "Barbeque Summer" being "wrong" actually read the Summer forecast and understood the limitations behind it?
Not sure how many Daily Mail readers there are in the Met Office itself but I'm sure they've a few folk who'd jump at the opportunity to appear on I'm A Celebrity.
heartwarming
Whilst it is cheering to see professionals closing ranks against the layman, my earlier comments on my perception that the weather forecasts available to the public contain less factual information than previously (preventing an independent assessment of what might happen if the forecast assumptions are amiss), and are also less accurate (over a three day period) stand. I believe the 'old' method used to rely on senior metereologists poring over charts trying to match with historical data and the using judgement. Based on my own experience with very sophisticated physics codes and the intricacies of meshing and interpretation (followed invariably by re-runs), if reliance is now placed on cfd codes no further explanation of the reduced utility is necessary.
Strange nobody's posted any actual data. It seems completely pointless to argue on the basis of so-and-so's mum getting drenched - was it last year? - when the nice man said a 60 per cent chance of showers, which isn't *that* much. Bloody BBC, must be the politicians.
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Here's a bit of data for my area (approximately Reading, Berks) for today, 29th August. I am particularly interested in the wind as I have a large radio tower in my garden.
Met Office forecast for Basingstoke (closest location) says wind 15mph gusting 28mph at 4pm
Met Check ditto says 7mph gusting (!) to 8mph for 4pm (No mention of 28mph)
BBC Weather site ditto says 14mph for 4pm (no mention of gusts)
Heathrow TAF suggests 10kts for next 24 hours
Just what does one believe?
Met Office forecast for Basingstoke (closest location) says wind 15mph gusting 28mph at 4pm
Met Check ditto says 7mph gusting (!) to 8mph for 4pm (No mention of 28mph)
BBC Weather site ditto says 14mph for 4pm (no mention of gusts)
Heathrow TAF suggests 10kts for next 24 hours
Just what does one believe?
Plumbum Pendular
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I find it interesting that we have been studying Met for hundreds of years and still struggle to get it right for more than a few days ahead (BTW I think that the Met Office does a great job).
Yet the environmentalists have been studying global warming, sorry I mean climate change, for what, 20 or 30 years but in details only for about 10 and reckon that we should believe their long term forecasts.
If we can't get the Met right for more than 5 days hence, how the hell can we put any faith in the long term forecasts for climate change?
Yet the environmentalists have been studying global warming, sorry I mean climate change, for what, 20 or 30 years but in details only for about 10 and reckon that we should believe their long term forecasts.
If we can't get the Met right for more than 5 days hence, how the hell can we put any faith in the long term forecasts for climate change?
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If we can't get the Met right for more than 5 days hence, how the hell can we put any faith in the long term forecasts for climate change?
In the same way as if I drop a leaf, Anyone can tell you it will fall to the ground.
With a bit more work you can predict how long on average it will take to hit the ground, and how fast.
But it's still virtually impossible to say exactly how that particular leaf will twist and turn as it floats to the ground.
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See my previous post...
2.20pm Met Office now going for gusts of 30mph. Other sites unchanged. Heathrow TAF still going in for 10kts.
A waste of space I feel...
2.20pm Met Office now going for gusts of 30mph. Other sites unchanged. Heathrow TAF still going in for 10kts.
A waste of space I feel...
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How long will it be, before every post on this thread comes accompanied by one of those stupid and pointless BBC weather warnings that they seem to start every weather forecast with?
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How long will it be, before every post on this thread comes accompanied by one of those stupid and pointless BBC weather warnings that they seem to start every weather forecast with?
Discussion done I think, I'm outta here.
Smithy out.
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As a cynic I wouldn't be surprised if the barbecue summer forecast back in April was spin doctored by the New Labour government to encourage the credit-crunch affected Brits to holiday at home!
Prince of Darkness involved?
Prince of Darkness involved?
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if you listen to the Met Office, they can't do that now, either.
Remember, the forecast is always right, it was just the weather that was wrong.
Remember, the forecast is always right, it was just the weather that was wrong.