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Yes Katla is linked geologically to the volcano that's erupting now. When one goes so does the other. But time is very misleading in geology. Katla is due to erupt but that could be next year or in 500 years. Still a mere blink in geological terms. The behemoth of a volcano under yellowstone national park is overdue by a couple of centuries. Mount St Helens is due to erupt some time soon. But again what is soon in geological terms. 1000 years is just like a pico second in our relative terms
Yes the last 3 katla eruptions have happened soon ish (18 months to 2 years) after the current volcano but we only know of a definite link going back to the 10th century. Before then we're not sure. I guess what I'm really saying is yes we must prepare but don't expect the bigun next week. It'll happen but first katla has to burn through 700' of glacial ice so we'll know about it. Even if the media isn't bothered to start with. The Icelandic president's words are quite prophetic though. "this is but a small dress rehersal for the big event." As someone working in the industry I've never been worried about instant catostrophic engine failures but I am worried the general erosion of safety factors as are some egineers in my company. But hey political expediency is probably more important at the moment. I'm no expert in engine design/ wear and tear/ damage but the politicians/ceo's/ bean counters aren't either and they'll probably have more say than anyone |
Flights cancelled to Belfast International
Taken from belfast int website....
Disruption to Flights (Tue 04 May) Following further movement in the ash cloud emanating from the Icelandic volcano and after consultation with the Met Office and National Air Traffic Services (NATS), the UK CAA has issued a notice closing airspace over Northern Ireland with effect from 7AM on Tuesday 04 May until further notice. This will mean that no flights will be operating into or out of Belfast International Airport during this period. Under these circumstances we would once again urge all intending passengers to check the status of their flight directly with their airline before committing to travel to the airport. We will update our website as further information becomes available from the authorities. Passengers travelling with Thomas Cook Airlines should contact 01274 724363. Click here for airline contact numbers Continue to the site © Belfast International Airport 2010. All Rights Reserved. |
Here we go again. CAA statement says all Northern Ireland airports closed from 7.00 am tomorrow morning. :ugh:
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EI Premier, the dispersion model used by the London VAAC has the information (what there is) provided by the Icelandic Met Office as its starting point. From there, NWP models forecast the movement of the cloud.
But, it's a FORECAST using the best model available. Unfortunately, meteorological time machines do not yet exist for someone to pop over to tomorrow or the next day to see where the ash is; nor do governments, airlines, nor the taxpayer want to shell out more money to make the model and observational data better than currently available. Yet again, the Met Office/VAAC merely fulfil the brief given them by ICAO to FORECAST the movement of ash. It's up the Aviation Authorities to judge wether airspace should be shut. As pointed out earlier, FAAM will be sending up a research flight later to find out how much (if any) ash is up there. Until then, there's no point getting one's knickers in a twist. Perhaps, instead of asking so many questions, you could suggest some possible solutions? |
CO have now also cancelled both of their EWR-EDI as well as their EWR-GLA flights on 4 May. Assume they think its possible that these airports may also be affected.
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Something happening right now ....
This is an image from the monitors in the area right now - and the cam is looking very odd at the moment too ....
Earthquakes - Iceland |
London VAAC - ´Models
Hi,
does anyone know a link to the London Ash Model ? Would like to try it out, get to know some details. Thanks Klaus |
EI Premier:
This whole situation is getting extremely annoying now. I was stranded two weeks ago on the continent and it took a lot of time, effort and cash to get back to Ireland. Now there are a few points I wish to make. Firstly, how do the UK Met Office/London VAAC know of the concentration of the supposed ash plume that's approaching when they have not sent up any test flights etc and ash concentrations couldn't even be verified at the volcano site up to this morning? Only yesterday the London VAAC charts indicated the main risk area some 200 miles to the west of Ireland stretching down the Atlantic - now everything has been altered again. What is the difference between a flight departing DUB tomorrow morning at 06.59 and 07.00? It's complete rubbish. The ash cloud is not going to suddenly envelope the skies above the airfield within the period of one minute or anything like that. Let's say two aircraft depart at the same time and fly northwards from RWY 34 - the fallacy of the principle of a blanket closure at 07.00 is already evident. The truth is that the IAA/London VAAC do NOT know the concentration of the ash with accuracy and therefore this is all again precautionary. I'm all for safety by every means and fully respect the need to maintain passenger/crew safety above all else, however this whole situation is going to have to be organised quite a lot better. If this should continue even on this scale, continuous economic damage will be done. If there is the eventual much spoken of eruption of Katla anytime within the next 18 months - it will drive the at least the European economy into a major recession, much worse than recent times because inflation in relation to land transportation will soar upwards. The entire situation is also getting extremely concerning right now, not just for those who are directly impacted by the airspace restrictions. You can't possibly be serious about requiring an airline to risk its investment in engines and aircraft just to deliver one planeload of passengers? Do you expect the insurers to accept an unknown risk? Are you going to sue if an aircraft goes down with one of your family on board thanks to a dicky Ash forecast? To put it another way, if it isn't safe for a whole year then you won't be flying for a whole year, period. The precautionary principle has to apply. And I have a Son who is going to be trying to get to Antigua from Britain on business next week, so don't think I'm not concerned. |
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Hello JetII
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I Need Clarification (TO FLY OR NOT TO FLY)
Airspace Restrictions over Ireland
I just can't figure out this industry. Not going into the initial release of volcanic ash and resulting airspaces clousures, but as a result of that, we now introduced a "NO FLY ZONE" so as to minimise airspace closures. What really annoys me now is that the IAA and also reports in the press seem to indicate that airports will reopen this afternoon on the 4th May. Click the below link, charts issued by VAAC this morning, can anyone tell me how the HELL they came to this decision: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/aviation...1272949726.png Parts of Ireland and the irish sea (SFC to FL200) are still within this NO FLY ZONE. What am I missing here? If this is the IAA giving into commercial pressures or maybe just not taking this seriously enough, I am out of this industry Your Comments Please HighLow |
Suggest you click Fleecy's link.
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Yes it is extremely annoying. What do you propose? Writing to the volcano? You can't possibly be serious about requiring an airline to risk its investment in engines and aircraft just to deliver one planeload of passengers? Do you expect the insurers to accept an unknown risk? Are you going to sue if an aircraft goes down with one of your family on board thanks to a dicky Ash forecast? To put it another way, if it isn't safe for a whole year then you won't be flying for a whole year, period. The precautionary principle has to apply. And I have a Son who is going to be trying to get to Antigua from Britain on business next week, so don't think I'm not concerned. I FULLY agree with everyone's points on safety and wholly respect the need for caution. I'm a frequent flyer myself and would not want any aircraft to enter into a situation in where it was in risk just for the sake of getting pax somewhere. However, my point about the difference between 06.57 for example or 06.59 and 07.00 still stands. Now apply that principle to what we have seen today: Even though Ireland is STILL within the red boundary zone on the UK Met Office/London VAAC charts, airspace is re-opening from 01.00PM today.. Yet at 01.00PM DUB for example will still firmly be in the restricted zone. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/aviation...1272949726.png Even on the ash concentration charts, airports like ORK and DUB are not in the zone in which concentrations are expected to exceed the agreed limits - even at 06.00 Hours this morning. There is no consistent approach from the IAA on this and in their media briefings they seem to have very little knowledge of what they are even talking about.. Comments like: 'A plume of ash extending from Donegal to Port Laoise' - I mean really, they can tell its periphery lies exactly over Port Laoise at the time of the broadcast? If the European governments thought that bank-bailouts were expensive, the purse-strings are going to have to loosen quite an amount again in the next while in my opinion, as this will cause severe hardship for airlines and many businesses alike. EI Premier |
Hi Premier, as so kindly pointed out to me recently, refer to Fleecy's link.
The Ryanair chart (issued by the VAAC) doesn't paint exactly what is going on here. It is the BLACK areas indicated on the chart that represent areas of ash density that exceed recommendations from engine manufacturers. HighLow |
Hi Premier, as so kindly pointed out to me recently, refer to Fleecy's link. The Ryanair chart (issued by the VAAC) doesn't paint exactly what is going on here. It is the BLACK areas indicated on the chart that represent areas of ash density that exceed recommendations from engine manufacturers. HighLow Many thanks for that and to Fleecy for posting the link. My main point also is that even in relation to this series of charts, you can see that neither ORK or DUB are within the black areas even at 06.00 Hours this morning.. Hopefully everything will get back to normal this afternoon, but I would say the risk of another closure into Wednesday is very high. Regards, EI Premier |
this is a good (and freely available) introduction to the type of procedure employed at the various VAACs However, the presentation includes: The use of last generation models would improve notably the confidence of the Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) forecasts Either way, it still seems that there is no remote sensing technology that gives dependable information about average particle SIZE and DENSITY of ash per cubic metre of air over a large geographic area (eg. UK and Ireland). Sorry to keep mentioning this..... but it's up to the operators to collect and pool data post-flight about ash encounters, so that there is at least a backstop for imprecise modelling, if not a method to calibrate the model in near real-time. Given the wind forecast for the rest of this week, it looks like the industry is going to get ANOTHER wake-up call (as if it should need one!!!). Now it all depends on the volcano. Pity CAA / EASA / ??? have not seen fit to issue any directive including data collection and sharing. |
Can I ask the guys flying commercially; has there been any guidance from your company with regard to flying within the BUFFER ZONE. It just seems non-intuitive to me, a BUFFER is something you keep between two objects. Can anyone tell me the chart below, is this red area a BUFFER Zone or something else. The chart pointed out by Fleecy gives much more detail. With regard to the chart below, what are we looking at here exactly?
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/aviation...1272949726.png Thanks HighLow |
Hello JetII
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EI-Premier, Eurocontrol/the CAA have stipulated a 60NM buffer zone around the greatest concentrations of ash (I dare say to cater for potential model inaccuracies).
As such, DUB and ORK are within this buffer, and are therefore subject to airspace closure. |
This is all very strange. The data available from Eurocontrol show the ash cloud is over Ireland and moving towards North Western UK. If the data was enough to close the airspace this morning; nothing has changed.
Has this been an over reaction on the part of the IAA causing a knock-on effect with the UK CAA regarding Northern Ireland? Have the airlines put pressure on the IAA/CAA ? Who feels comfortable being the first to launch at 1300? Next chart should be out in 10mins |
F14,
It maybe worth reading at least the last page before you post. Goto Fleecy's link previous page and all will be revealed. ;) |
IAA Message
The IAA has cleared Irish Airports to open for full operations from 1300 hrs local time today Tuesday 4th May. Dublin, Shannon, Cork, Knock, Donegal, Waterford, Kerry, Galway and Sligo may resume normal operations.
Current Information from the VAAC confirms this information. We expect operations to be normal at all Irish Airports for the rest of today. Ireland will not fall within the predicted area of ash concentrations that exceed acceptable engine manufacturer tolerance levels. Our decision to close earlier today was based solely on the safety risks to crews and passengers as a result of the drift south of the volcanic ash cloud caused by the north easterly winds. The situation will be reviewed as the week goes on. Winds are forecast to continue coming from a Northerly direction for the next few days and this could lead to further problems. There will be a further update on the IAA website at 20.00hrs tonight, Tuesday 4th May, 2010. ENDS |
I have seen fleecy's link. I fail to see how the red area has moved away until tonight. The black area was never a threat over the last 12 hours. However rain is forecast in the Irish FIR this afternoon.
I have been monitoring this page:- Met Office: Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres Tomorrow could be different. |
and this one.
http://www.eurocontrol-at-atcglobal....10_0600UTC.pdf should be able to change the title to 1200UTC soon. At the moment chart hasn't be issued. |
F14,
The black area at 0600 is significant enough for the airspace closures that have occurred. The red area as far as I know is not an issue as the density is not high enough for it to be a factor. The two charts you have linked to do not show the areas in which ash is forecast to be above the manufacturers tolerance level. I agree the next few days could be interesting. |
F14 check this site out:
Met Office: Icelandic volcano - Ash concentration charts It could explain things if this is what is being used. |
This volcano has become very active again its spewing out very black ash compared to a white cloud over the weekend. Check out this live link third picture down.
Link: Mulakot - myndavelar |
Beginning to wonder if th IAA read the wrong chart last night as the Met Office charts showing red zone , black zone and buffer do not extend as far as Ireland and the CFMU chart including buffer is similar. Were they using the basic ash chart with red zone only?
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The IAA were most definitely using the right chart for 06:00 this morning which clearly had a black area across Northern Ireland sufficient to cause the closures seen this morning. The 12:00 forecast issued at the same time showed no black areas so most people were hopeful that the closures would be short.
Whether or not there really was a high concentration as per the forecast is a different matter but there was ample time to arrange flights to sample it so hopefully by now somebody knows how accurate the forecast was. |
well not so strange...
after all...
only that a lot of pro's still dont get it.. F14 wrote: This is all very strange. The data available from Eurocontrol show the ash cloud is over Ireland and moving towards North Western UK. If the data was enough to close the airspace this morning; nothing has changed. The VAAC charts ( Aviation Color Red) are the ONLY official and ICAO conform way to tell where there is a "Danger Zone".. These official VAAC Charts ( Aviation Color Red) are the basis for the SIGMETs. If you as a PIC fly into or just plan your flight into an area designated by a SIGMET and nothing happens, well that's fine.. IF HOWEVER something happens, you, as a "PILOT IN COMMAND " are toast... No airline boss will bail you out.. and no politician either.. The new charts ( color black) depicting "no fly zones" are a political vehicle to lure everybody into thinking that outside of the "black area" flying is safe.. It is NOT by any national or international standards which by themselves are based on ICAO rules..in any legal way Those ICAO rules STILL APPLY... So let's hope all crews in the front end of all those airliners are aware of that fact ... It is nevertheless their rear end out on the line... |
Following the latest update to forecasts from the UK Met Office, the CAA has issued guidance to operators announcing that airspace over Scotland and Northern Ireland will be closed from 07:00 local time tomorrow (Wednesday) morning.
CAA statement |
Following the latest update to forecasts from the UK Met Office, the CAA has issued guidance to operators announcing that airspace over Scotland and Northern Ireland will be closed from 07:00 local time tomorrow (Wednesday) morning. |
2100 update now showing Scottish airspace closed tomorrow (05/05) and reports are saying that airspace over north west UK and north Wales could be affected by 1200 tomorrow.
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Well, wonder if Servisair will send out another letter advising staff that the company could cease operations at any time - due to the volcano... :ugh:
Lots of dedicated staff in the regions who are now worried sick that they may end up unemployed, and by the tone of the letter, Servisair are not kidding. Prepared to sacrafice some big customer contracts, and shed loads of hard working staff. :mad: |
Business interruption insurance
I must say it baffles me that more companies don't carry business interruption insurance to protect them in times like this? It's commonly available after all. I also think any business that is making noises about going down the tubes after only a few days stoppage simply isn't well run - I mean equating it to a household it's like one of us taking a week unpaid leave isn't it?
Anyway my best wishes to all the Servisair guys and gals. Desk-pilot |
it baffles me Even assuming an insurer could be found that was prepared to quote for the sky-high cover you suggest, the company's profits need to be large enough to pay the premiums. I think you'll find that starting from where we are (insuring against a risk - ie. volcanic activity combined with particular weather conditions -with unknown probability but proven consequences costing billions) there's no way now that this risk could ever be covered. Far too open-ended. Insurance companies are not charities: they're in business only to make money. |
Why some cxld and some not?
Anyone got any idea as to why BA and AF have cancelled all flights into EDI from LHR, LGW and CDG but others such as EZY, BE etc on similar routes are flying normally? (note I'm not even mentioning FR.... )
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Forecast for weekend
Hi Guys, grateful for some advice. My boss is due to fly Luton to Galway on Friday returning Saturday. Appreciate that nobody can know for sure about the ash, but are the winds likley to be from the NE over that period, thus increasing the possibility of disruption?:confused:
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By the end of the late shift @ EDI last night, seems like most airlines were preparing for the worst for today (Wednesday), as most had their engine covers fitted etc. Ryanair, along with one or two other airlines like BA, seemed to take the view that EDI would be shut first thing today and cancelled their early morning flights and put a notice to that effect on their website yesterday evening. This morning however, EDI remained open and the airlines that had decided to play a "wait and see" strategy seem to be operating normally. RYR interestingly enough said that Edinburgh would be open for Ryanair flights from 1500 hours today.
Not sure what they told the passengers at the airport who saw most other airlines operating normally ........ :) |
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