ATC services eye 20 April for re-opening airspace
 

European air navigation providers are recommending re-opening of airspace and the resumption of flights by 08:00UTC tomorrow.

The recommendation has been put forward during an operational teleconference involving air traffic control providers today, says air navigation services organisation CANSO.

"They have suggested there is enough information to begin resuming flights tomorrow," says a spokesman for CANSO.

CANSO states that the statement is only a recommendation, and that a final decision must be taken at government level.

Director general Graham Lake adds: "We should caution that it will take several days for operations to return to normal."

He adds that there is no clear indication as to the extent to which airspace will be re-opened.

UK air navigation service NATS states that meteorological advisories state that the Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajoekull is "less active than previously", although UK airspace will remain shut at least until midnight on 20 April.

Source: Air Transport Intelligence news

@ fruitbat ... Sources and/or links are helpful. ;)

Northern Italy airspace was open early this morning. We flew TLV to BGY.(cargo)
On decent the controller was telling some aircraft that Milan FIR was closed but we were cleared to continue and landed at 0756z.
So I think the closure was from 0800z.
No problems, but the cloud over the alps looked a bit like you see when there's an inversion over a city. ie. a bit brownish.
Now stuck here.

Thought for the day
 

The following is from Tagesschau, German TV News; Forscher: Vulkanasche stellt Gefahr für Flugzeuge dar | tagesschau.de,
translated by Google: Google Nachricht

Why it's different this time.
 

VictorVector said: Volcanos have erupted before and this action has not been taken before. I am unaware of any incidents except of those flying directly into dense cloud. +++ The reason it's different now is that this volcano erupted under a glacier. The hot rock hitting the ice generated lots of ash pushed higher up in the atmosphere than a 'normal' eruption from other volcanos. Now that the ice is melted, and the meltwater isn't running into the caldera, the ash is not being ejected so high, and not being made in such large quantities. The amount of ash being ejected, and how high it goes also depends on the type of eruption: there are lots of different types - ranging from the slow ooze (Hawai'i) to the big bang (Mt. St Helens, Krakatoa). There were worries about the current eruption that the type of lava was changing from basaltic to something else with a higher gas content, but I've not seen anything on that recently. You'd have to ask a vulcanologist about the different types of eruptions to get more details. This time really is different.

How much mica do you think is generated by a forest fire? A comparable analogy would be comparing a thin layer of stratus to a monster CuNim - cloud is cloud...

Not according to their website which says :

It seems quite a rapid decision by CANSO to resume flights ......I work in a UK University where we have some specialists in this area, with links to staff "on the ground" in Iceland.

It appears that the eruption IS entering 'another phase', but exactly what that is remains to be seen. It should be remembered that when Eyjafjallajökull erupted in 1821, the eruption continued on-and-off until 1823, and this also triggered the 1823 eruption of the neighbouring volcano Katla.

As I understand it, the ash production in the current eruption is due to the fact that the volcano is melting the glacier, causing rapid cooling and fragmenting of the magma.

See this article from Dr David Rothery, of the Department of Earth & Environmental Sciences, at The Open University :

Times Online - Eureka Zone - WBLG: Ash plume shows first signs of dying down

"The reason behind the apparent dying down of the ash production is likely to be that the volcano has been cut off from the supply of meltwater, which has until now been pouring into the volcano vent. When the magma hits the ice and water, it cools down incredibly quickly leading it to shatter into tiny fragments, which shatter into fine ash light enough to be carried high into the atmosphere. The evaporating steam helps power the ash up into the sky.
Volcanologists have been predicting that as walls of solid magma build up around the vent the volcano less melt water will feed into the eruption. It looks as though this could have happened now.

"There is no guarantee that the situation will not revert to what was happening Thursday-Sunday, but there are grounds for cautious optimism," said Dr Rothery"

"BA seeks state aid amid £20m a day volcano costs - Times Online"

Haven't BA ever heard of Business Interruption insurance?

Most business can't use the EU as a contribution-less insurance policy.

Chuntering around the UK west country on Saturday in a spam can at 5,000' proved to leave a less than desirable taste/sensation in the mouth, throat, nose and, to a much lesser degree, the eyes.

A quite acrid and somewhat irritant product, to say the least and not one I'd recommend on a regular basis.

It took several cans of Blackthorn more than usual to dissipate said taste. :ok:

Actually they have very quickly done a U turn and stated they have delayed the decision on Tues until later as there is some hope for Tues. Fingers crossed.

Re Tornado/RAF probe flights
 

Sorry spamcan,
As an ex-F3 driver who lectures on jet engines - forget it. High level in a Hawk for huge amounts of danger money maybe, at least there's a chance of gliding somewhere. The best bet for lower levels may be a piston Tutor - easier to fit with the samplers if they aren't heavy. Other than that I think earlier suggestions about Nimrod sound best. You can at least stooge around with two engines shut down, then start them if the in-use engines go. Plus they are sitting around doing nowt at present. Any kipper fleet/R1 drivers care to comment?

Makes sense so is there a procedure of shutting one engine down (on a 2 engine plane) if you fly into the volcanic dust? Seems sensible rather than risking both.

Over 28 aircraft showing-up, currently flying through the "Volcanic Cloud"

Not too many "falling out of the sky"

Clearly someone needs to get the ducks lined up pretty soon, before this turns into a total farce.

Channel Island airspace still closed
 

I reported yesterday that Channel Island airspace was open for inter-island ( Jersey, Guernsey, Alderney for anyone searching using keywords) flights, including commercial flights (mostly Trilanders), but CLOSED for all movements into and out of the zone. On Friday a VFR corridor was created to 50 North and worked well. However it appears that there was an airprox in Jersey with a Challenger jet and this has created general paranoia about the legal consequences of allowing VFR. There is hardly any traffic without commercial flights so why the large numbers of highly qualified ATC staff cant figure out a way of organising lanes with recommended heights N/S bound and speed limiting etc is completely beyond me and my contacts in the GA community. The problem is now having dug themselves a legal hole they are unlikely to change without loss of face.
This is now off the volcano topic, it there a better thread on legal, airspace, madness issues?

STOP PRESS UPDATE 1430z NOTAM is coming out allowing SVFR!!
Someone has rattled the cage in the assylum, or they have no faces to lose?

Handouts for BA et all ?
 

I wondered what you guys thought of the notion that BA is somehow entitled to a bailout ( in the eyes of Willie Walsh as published in the times ) ? Would government money be a good or bad thing for aviation and should funds potentially be applied equally or on a case by case basis, would that create distortion and an uneven playing field.

Try "Airlines, Airports and Routes" ... you may even find a Thread in existence. And with luck someone else from GSY and JSY will read it! :cool:

MPN11, on The Bigger Rock :ok:

Very good graph of dust/ash concentration in real time is presented on the homepage of the meteoroligical station at Mt. Sonnblick in Austria (elev. 3106m):

www.sonnblick.net/portal/

So the ash IS there - it peaked on the 17th, today it is rising again.

Good luck to all of the operators, who are risking engines, airframes and lives - maybe not with a single flight in contaminated air. But who knows?
That´s not the "safe course of action" we were used to follow until a few days ago!

Hugely irresponsible
 

Well so far we have 2x USAF F16's, a Belgian F18 with engine damage plus a UK Cranfield atmospheric test ac with significant ash found and seemingly another similar result from the Swiss earlier today.

And yet due to pressure from the airline finance depts talk of LHR opening tomorrow with no evidence that it is safe to do so, none whatsoever...

I don't like where this is going one bit. We all know that if we suffer a double engine failure on a 2 engine civil transport the chances of ever seeing your wife and kids again are as good as nil. The BA 777 at LHR lost his engines 60 seconds from a runway perfectly lined up 3 miles out and everyone agrees it was nothing short of a miracle that didn't end up a smoking hole in the ground...

Personally I don't want to breathe this stuff, I don't want to fly through it and I see no evidence that the problem has been resolved, just that the accountants are pressing for resumption of flight.

ONe point everyone seems to be missing is that a 3 hour jaunt for Willie Walsh in no way compares to the 12-14 hours use per day that most civil aircraft are put to. Within a week I will be taking over an aircraft with 70hrs flying in ash with no means of verifying if there is engine damage or not...

Personally I am praying NATS keeps its nerve.

Desk-pilot

More sizemic activity on Eyjafjallajokull big brother Mt. Katla...

Órói á stöðvum við Eyjafjallajökul

Chemin
 

As you wrote...

"What I should have said was "ash" of course. Silly me. I was going to mention, but didn't, soot from the Kuwait oilfields that were ignited during the gulf war, which along with blowing sand, caused huge amounts of "clag" in the area, but did not stop operations.
However, if you think we are not dealing with "grit" and "silicon" what do you suggest it is that has been deposited on my car this morning?"

The danger is of the silicates, not silicon, melting and solidifying as they pass through a jet engine. The point is that if you are at the level where you think the precise composition of the stuff is unimportant, and that the effects of volcanic silicates are similar to those of desert sands or silicon and those of volcanic ash are similar to those of hydrocarbon ash, that suggests to me that you're not really engaging meaningfully with the problem.

My experience is that the melting behaviour of silicates is hugely variable, and that it would be essential to know what exactly was up there before trying to predict its effects on an engine.

No idea if this has anything to do with the colcanic ash, but I think it has not been mentioned that a Wideroe Dash 8-100 had an inflight engine shutdown today:

http://www.avherald.com/h?article=42a53334&opt=0

So Desk-pilot, what is your take on the "30 plus and rising" aircraft, from various airlines and various countries that are now showing up flying through the very heart of the "Volcanic Cloud"

It specifically says that it does not have anything to do with ash. The crew shut down because of oil pressure fluctuations.
Edit: the Widerøe that is ;)

Whippersnapper
 

Oh, now I understand. Will that be the reason that there has been so much damage reported to engines involved in the "test flights" ?
Dust/sand storms contain particles of greatly varying size, from recognizable "sand" at lower levels to dust particles measuring a few microns at 20,000 feet or more. So yes, I do believe it is a relevant analogy. Of course the different composition of a plume could have the results you mentioned, but happily, in these circumstances, it hasn't.

According to Eurocontrol the EU will come with a "plan" later today.
The "plan" will be in effect from 0600Z tomorrow. There is no further information at the moment.

re jim french flybe and willie(sack em all)walsh comments
 

further to my post
http://www.pprune.org/5644985-post1559.html

Jim French head of Flybe airlines at Exeter on BBC breakfast and Radio 5 this morning...
Quoted as saying the ash can be seen on aircraft radar...er since when?

Then just now Willie (sack em all) Walsh of BA said the no-fly ban is
unnecessary but in the next breath BBC says 4 NATO fighter jets damaged this morning because they flew through the ash clouds.

pffft

presumably if no damage was found on the flight yesterday (the test flight) - they'll be able to give a formal statement to that effect ?

BBC report that LH allowed to operate 50 a/c back to Germany with PAX.

Anyone have more details?

Ireland
 

Some talk around the IAA that Ireland my have some airspace restrictions lifted late am 2morrow

Sky news just indicated that Luththansa have been given permission to fly 50 passenger flights back to Germany.they have not said where from?!

From Airbus' own Flight Ops Briefing Notes:

" Nine VAAC have been designated by international organisations to provide expert advice to Meterological Watch Offices regarding the location and expected movement of volcanic ash clouds."

It would seem a paradox to set up an internationally recognised group of experts and then ignore their advice. Mind you it wouldn't be the first time!

It appears that due to commercial pressure from airlines, the resolve is beginning to crack.

It will be interesting to see how history judges this albeit continuing situation.

My totally unqualified judgment, based simply on the both appalling and laughable history of the MET Services and the crippling, pathetic directives from the Health and Safety bodies, that this will collapse, thrashing its little legs, straight into the same little box.

Belgian F18 or ASAF F16's apart, lets wait and see what "catastrophic" effects occur to the rapidly increasing number of civil aircraft currently ploughing their weary way through the "Volcanic Cloud"

Any down yet ???

Also uk airspace planned to be opened up from 06.00 (scottish airspace)Midlands at 12.00 and southern uk at 18.00 following the reduction in volcanic activity!
Not set in stone...just maximising a potential window....

Nice choice of words (Pompeii in mind...)

I suppose these early pioneers will have the engines borescoped pretty regularly - the 'airtests' of yesterday were only of a few hours duration. The cumulative effects of 20, 50, 100 hours flying will be the proof of the pudding.

The only slight concern is that all engines on each a/c will have operated in the same conditions, so if one were to suffer contam. the others would be in a similar state.

Here's hoping that all will be well.

Belgium does not have F18's it was a Finnish one.

in these situations - if an airline asks for flights to go ahead - is it still the captains final decision on whether that particular flight is safe or not ?

Bruce Wayne


Finally some data to put things in perspective:ok:

The safety first crowd and running a business with maintainence related decision making can finally come to an agreement with data and a risk management approach.

The aviation industry, manufacturers, operators and regulators know how to manage safety and what data is necessary. Unfortunately it is taking too long to sort this out but we will get there.

We just seem to get conflicting view points in discussion forums like this from folks who have no experience in risk management.

The cloud is neither black nor white

I'm glad to see they are going to open it up in "stages." This will give the guys in SAR a chance to grab a bite to eat in the middle of their very busy day.

Someone should strap a 737 to their ass and go out to fly a full day of simulated air carrier operations around Europe for the day. At night the boys in maintenance get the plane. Do this for at least three days and then release the rest of the fleet. Bird number one would always get extra special handling each night for the next month or two because it would be the bird in the mine.

Problem with this theory is PW, RR & GE only have so many spare parts. If the entire fleet runs out of engine parts in a month or two everyone will really be up in arms except PW, RR & GE who will tack on an extra 100% to every "expedited" part.