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It seems to me that there are people out there forgetting that there are passengers and crews lives at risk here. Not perhaps today or tomorrow but we just dont know the longterm effects of this stuff on engines. Anyone fancy being 180 mins away from the nearest diversion with the hot sections in both engines melting? I'm not an engineer or pilot but have seen what glass beads and sand can to to hot sections and it isn't pretty. Shoot me down if you like but the it seems to me there is to much guess work going on here. The other problems the airlines have is just how much of any damage to engines if it did happen would be covered by insurance. Big crash yes. knackered engine probably not. Big bills they can hardly afford at this point.
Right. My small rant over. |
Ryanair, Europe's largest low-cost carrier, has cancelled all flights to and from northern Europe until at least mid-Wednesday because of the ash cloud.
The airline's CEO, Michael O'Leary, has said he is "nervous" about the airlines who are seeking compensation because of the volcano. He also said that passengers seeking expenses in such extraordinary circumstances is "ludicrous." BBC News - Ryanair boss Michael O'Leary says expenses "not fair" |
Removed because of an almost identical post just prior to this (Ref NASA DC8)
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So who is ultimately responsible for lifting the ban?
The airspaces were closed by the ATCOs, so they are the ones to open them. It was an easier decision to close them than the much harder decision to open them. With due respect to the ATCOs, they surely do not have the competencies or authority to lift the ban? Are they experts in weather, engine wear, vulcanism and the myriad of related technical fields of expertise? Having said that, I cannot suggest who is competent to make these decisions.
With severe weather, for example, I understand the ATCOs can advise the flight crew but the ultimate safety decision rests with the commander of the flight, not ATCO. Is this event not similar to abnormal weather, in legal terms? It will be a very brave administrator who decrees the airpsaces open; they will tend to be ultra-cautious, for obvious reasons. |
Anyone know anything about a turbine heli (emergency response) that had apparently been flying in the Edinburgh area to emergencies, beetween 1000ft - 2000ft agl for the last few days and is now apparently grounded due to severe engine damage associated with the ash ?? |
Unfortunately nobody knows that just yet. |
FA10 i do have a source and usually very, very reliable but i can't quantify myself with any documents, so hence the question......only seeking the truth as to if it has occurred or not ??
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I have not seen mention here yet (and apologies if I've missed it) but I understood that over the weekend the Met Office were struggling with the question of how to treat the ash cloud(s) in the Monday onwards forecasts.
According to the Met folks the ICAO recommendation is that ash clouds are assumed to have dissipated 60 hrs after the event that created them. The Met Office were concerned that this would mean they should start dropping mentioning/reporting ash from Monday onwards. They felt unsure/unhappy with this as their indications were that the ash cloud would still remain and be extensive. That is if the atmospheric ash represented a danger over the weekend then the same danger would still remain on Monday. But, if they followed the ICAO met reporting standards then they should simply stop reporting the existence of the ash. I'm left wondering if the decisions to open airspace is based on actual measurements or a decision on how to interpret the reporting. |
Some Facts - no opinions
Some FACTS that many here are ignoring:
1) Being a commercial pilot, even a heavy captain with tens of thousands of hours, gives you no special knowledge about the effect of volcanic ash on commercial aircraft and engines. 2) All of the following are telling you the dangers of flying over Europe/UK are unknown: Aircraft manufacturers Engine manufacturers Aerospace engineers Volcanologists Engine repair technicians Metallurgists 3) Geologists and Volcanolgists keep telling this forum there are significant, and lethal, differences between volcanic ash and sand/dust, even the oft mentioned Sahara grit. 4) Geologists and Volcanolgists keep telling this forum there are significant differences between the volcanic ash and ash plume emitted by Icelandic and Italian volcanoes. 5) Geologists and Volcanolgists keep telling this forum that the eruption plume from the Iceland volcano is quite different that those encountered in Indonesian due to the cooling effect of the glaciers. 6) Prior, and recent test flights over the UK have detected significant concentrations of “heavy grit” at various flight levels. 7) The Finnish F-18’s were totally unaware, i.e. no visible indication, of the volcanic ash that damaged their engines. 8) The “unknown airforce” F-16 with ash damaged engine was totally unaware, i.e. no visible indication, of the volcanic ash that damaged their engines. 9) I have found no posting on this forum by any professional or expert with knowledge of the interactions of commercial aircraft/engines and volcanic ash that suggests it is safe to fly in Europe/UK 10) Engine manufactures are telling you to borescope engines after flight into volcanic ash. Engine mechanics are telling you this is an expensive and time consuming process. 11) Volcanic ash related engine damage has repeatedly occurred when commercial flights encountered volcanic ash that was not visible. |
And, if I can add to Danny’s comments. This is a professional pilots forum and obviously a prime news item. Discussion and input from all sources and not just professional pilots is more than welcome. However as a busy topical thread it is attracting a great deal of input from those with little to add, or whose comment, question or observation would be better accommodated on another forum where there are also threads on this same subject currently running.
For those contributors who feel the need to post the same endless links to the same webcams, describe the sunset where they live or the dust that has accumulated on their Ford Fiesta, wet themselves with excitement whenever their virtual radar site shows an aircraft may have taken off from an airport, offer their nuclear weapon solutions to the volcanoes existence, or simply keep repeating their own personal mantra over and over again, then the post is likely to be removed. Again this is a professional pilots forum and that is the target audience. Anybody is welcome to take part if they have something relevant and new to add. However it is not a forum, nor is it a thread for those simply seeking out an audience for otherwise meaningless waffle or irrelevant comment. |
Thunder and lightning, very very frightening:
Photographing Iceland’s Fiery Volcano - Lens Blog - NYTimes.com |
....actually, just wondering, would it not be worth the UK CAA requesting borescopes of the aircraft that have been flying with regularity at the lower levels for the duration of the ash plume ? would answer the questions and concerns raised quite suitably one would think ?
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Thunder and lightning, very very frightening: Photographing Iceland’s Fiery Volcano - Lens Blog - NYTimes.com |
OutsideCAS, that really sounds like a plan!
I have followed this thread (and a german one) for quite a while now, but nobody came up yet with that solution...:ok: |
Well, i do have the odd genius moment.....and would certainly be a better overall result platform than a one off flight, could yield far more purposeful results and be included in future for reference.....heaven forbid it should ever rear it's head.
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A lot happened this evening here in Holland.
KLM have dispatched 3 flights with passengers this evening and hope to operate more then 50% of their schedule tomorrow. According to our Minister of Transport they had a conference call with all the EU ministers today and they decided that the closure of all the airspace within the area charted by the VAAC was unreasonable. They will now divide the airspace in 3 categories instead of 2: No ash. Some ash, but not in quantities that are deemed to be unsafe. A lot of ash. I have not found a new map of the airspace with these 3 zones depicted on it. Nor do I know how they decide what is safe and what is unsafe. This change in rules is permanent, not some temporary measure. The notam for EHAA FIR says that IFR flights are now allowed in VMC and UDP conditions only. |
Heard this morning that some domestic flights in or around Newfoundland, Canada have been stopped due possibility of ash. Anyone got anymore on this?
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Wow I notice now.
And ridiculously, pilots must file pireps after the EACH flight to BOTH [email protected] and [email protected]. How about just forwarding those reports to each other? Pffrt. |
Not sure if this has been posted previously NERC press releases
but might shed some light on what D-CALMs been up over the last few days. |
New Met Map up
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/aviation...1271719538.png
Eurocontrol keeps saying they are basing their new zones on "concentration". This only shows "altitude". Anyone know of any Met posted Met info that addresses ash concentration? |
Government chartered essential flights
Isn't the situation moving towards a 'Merchant Navy' type solution with government chartered aircraft with volunteer crews providing prioritised essential air services to/from the UK?
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too soon?
As much as i wish to see my employer getting their jets back in the skies, i cant help but get the feeling that in a month or so's time we are going to be replacing alot of powerplants. I only hope that the engines on our twins dont suffer their demise at the same time. I'm also thankful that i keep my feet firmly on the ground in my occupation and really do "dof my cap" to any drivers willing to take on nature. sure, there will be a period of time when the media and even maybe some industry insiders will be saying "i told you it would be ok", but will they be saying that in a month or two when they are etops in their twin when both donks start coughing? Best of luck to you all but im going to Butlins for my holiday this year.
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Safety First!
It has taken over three days to view all the threads in this topic...just as well there was a week-end involved :)
I liked the analogy with the Blackwall Tunnel for getting things back to normal, having decided on the ban...could be difficult to decide on the right time. Good post on the reasons for BA, KLM and LH flying their "no problem flights" by Jetex Jim...in which I fully agree. The Engineers seem to have explained the risks pretty well to me...I wouldn't fly in it any more than I would drive through a snow storm with summer tyres on a non-gritted road. Problem is...there is something in the air...that you cannot see...with RADAR or Mk1 eyeball...Engine equivalent of black ice. Change in weather...bit of precipitation and all will be back to normal...but the holes in the cheese lined up to cause an accident...it was spotted early and prevented one. |
Well, at this moment in time, it sounds as though we will start getting under way again at Gatwick from 19.00 tomorrow evening with, supposedly, a “normal” service from Wednesday morning. UK airports north of a line from Teesside to Blackpool are expected to reopen from 07.00 tomorrow.
VS15 Due to depart tomorrow at 1900L and VS29 due to leave at 1930L We had Air Transat due to arrive at 1945L on a turn around Turkish Airlines are requesting an inbound slot of 2300L for their freighter on a turn around. just some info ive picked up getting home from work whether it goes ahead or not who knows |
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Turbo Fan engines= Appears to be no damage
Turbo Jet engines= Damage Is there a connection? :confused: |
We may have dodged a bullet, but for how long? Launching our jets today without the full knowledge of what is really up there could be just short of suicide. Maybe not for a week or two, even a month or two but once the cooling in your turbine blades is clogged up engines are going to fail. I hope im wrong.
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It seems that any engine failure is highly unlikely to be immediate.
This is where us engineers come in. I assume that after your next flight we will doubtless be asked to look at your engines, and if they are damaged, we will tell you, and not release to service. If there is no damage then we will also tell you. (I am probably guilty of a 'sucking eggs' analogy, but, when you are next flying, keep an eye on your TGT/ITT, FF etc. I would assume there would be an unusual increase if any damage has taken place). |
Couple of things not yet discussed much here but especially relevant if any testing involving military (eg. Nimrod or fighter aircraft) is proposed.
What difference in ash vulnerability between various turbine types (straight-through, low-bypass, high-bypass)? Point being that the front fan MIGHT act as a centrifugal separator to get dust particles away from the core of the engine and outwards into the bypass area where it would do nothing. Anyone know if this happens in practice, with dust about the consistency of talcum powder? Most of the discussion here (and news) has focused on turbine damage on the outside of the turbine / stator blades. What is the actual risk of ash getting into the cooling passages inside the blades when there is insufficient ash ppm to cause stall or failure for other reasons? In particular, is the position of the cooling plenum inlet(s) bad or good considering likely paths of heavier-than-air ash particles through the compressor stages? Clearly (?), any cooling air blockage is more likely to cause catastrophic blade failure than deposits of volcanic glass on the outside surface of the blades. Or not :confused:. I obviously don't know enough about turbine designs. And another thing. How long before the volcano vapourises all the ice / water present in the caldera? Once this happens, apparently the character of the eruption will change and the average ash particle size increase a lot. When THAT happens, the ash-cloud will (obviously?) sink to ground / sea much faster and therefore pose less / no threat south of Iceland, whatever the wind conditions. |
The damage you might see would be the fan, compressor and hot section with a borescope inspection but what about the dust that will settle in the balance and signal lines, FCU's and labyrinth seals. How detailed will these inspections need to be to really give it the tick in the box safe to fly approval?
Also the airlines of course want to get up in the air again but what about the leasing companies that own the engines and airframes, are they going to let the airlines fly their equipment if their is still some doubt? |
References and links:-
SKYbrary - Managing the Risk to the Safety of Aircraft in Flight Caused by Volcanic Ash |
Taken from NATS
Statement on Icelandic volcanic eruption: Tuesday April 20, 0245 Since our last statement at 2100 yesterday, the volcano eruption in Iceland has strengthened and a new ash cloud is spreading south and east towards the UK. This demonstrates the dynamic and rapidly changing conditions in which we are working. Latest information from the Met Office shows that the situation is variable. The information shows that Scottish airports should be available from 0700 and more airspace over England may become available from 1300 although not as far south as the main London airports. We will continue to monitor Met Office information and the situation is likely to change during the course of the day. We will make a further statement at approximately 0900 (local time), today, Tuesday 20 April. NATS is maintaining close dialogue with the Met Office and with the UK's safety regulator, the CAA, in respect of the international civil aviation policy we follow in applying restrictions to use of airspace. We are working closely with Government, airports and airlines, and airframe and aero engine manufacturers to get a better understanding of the effects of the ash cloud and to seek solutions. |
Taken from NATS
Word for word (save the update time) identical to their previous statement. Least they're taking a "wait and see" approach, I guess. |
Search of previous incidents with volcanic ash cloud addressed by NTSB reveals only one since 1962 (based on searches for volcanic and for ash). Looks like KLM should be dusting off the procedures they put in place after this event.
NTSB Identification: ANC90FA020 . The docket is stored on NTSB microfiche number 41866. Scheduled 14 CFR KLM ROYAL DUTCH AIRLINES Accident occurred Friday, December 15, 1989 in ANCHORAGE, AK Probable Cause Approval Date: 6/30/1992 Aircraft: BOEING 747-400, registration: PHBFC Injuries: 245 Uninjured.BFR TKOF, CREW OF KLM FLT 867 ADZD OF VOLCANIC ERUPTION ABT 100 MI SW OF DESTN. EN ROUTE, FLT ADZD OF ANOTHER ERUPTION. FOR ARR, FLT CLRD TO DSCND FM FL390 AT PLT'S DISCRETION; VCTR GIVEN TO AVOID LAST KNOWN AREA OF ASH CLD. DRG DSCNT THRU FL260, FLT ENCTRD ASH CLD; ASH/SMOKE ENTERED COCKPIT/CABIN. CREW DONNED O2 MASKS; USED MAX PWR TO CLB. 1 MIN LTR, ALL ENGS LOST PWR (TO 28%-30% RPM); THERE WAS ELEC PWR INTRPN, LOSS OF AIRSPD INDCN, FIRE WARNING ALARM FOR FWD CARGO AREA. AFTER 8-9 ATMTS & DSCNT TO 13,300', ALL ENGS RESTARTED & FLT CONTD TO SAFE LDNG. DMG FND ON EXTERNAL SFCS OF ACFT & IN HI PRES TURBINES OF ALL ENGS. BOEING OMB #747-B2-4, ADZD TO AVOID VOLCANIC ACTIVITY; BUT IF ENCTRD, RETARDING THRUST TO IDLE WLD RDC BLDUP IN ENG & IMPROVE STALL MARGIN. ATC RADAR COULD ONLY DETECT VOLCANIC ASH FOR 5-10 MIN AFTER ERUPTION; ACFT RADAR NOT DESIGNED TO DETECT ASH. ASH CLD FCST TO MOV NNE AT 60 KTS; REVIEW OF SATELLITE DATA SHOWED IT ACTUALLY MOVED AT ABT 120 KTS. KLM HAD NO PROC FOR 747 ENCTR WITH ASH CLD & NO ADNL INSTRNS WERE GIVEN TO KLM CREWS. The National Transportation Safety Board determines the probable cause(s) of this accident as follows: INADVERTENT ENCOUNTER WITH VOLCANIC ASH CLOUD, WHICH RESULTED IN DAMAGE FROM FOREIGN MATERIAL (FOREIGN OBJECT) AND SUBSEQUENT COMPRESSOR STALLING OF ALL ENGINES. A FACTOR RELATED TO THE ACCIDENT WAS: THE LACK OF AVAILABLE INFORMATION ABOUT THE ASH CLOUD TO ALL PERSONNEL INVOLVED. |
Insurance liability
I've heard a lot of talk about the decision of the airlines to start flying again, but what about the role of the aircraft insurers in this scenario?
I would've thought that they would be wary of covering aircraft that will be flying into ash clouds, or maybe they would increase their premiums? |
We are not totally without information on plume penetration. A very special NASA DC-8 documented ash levels, sizes, and gas concentrations and the details are all there for those who have the time to read it.Here
I quote from the report on the inadvertent ash incident with the NASA DC-8, a fully instrumented airborne science research test bed. More than 100 commercial aircraft have unexpectedly encountered volcanic ash in flight and at airports in the past 20 years. Eight of these encounters caused varying degrees of in-flight loss of jet engine power (ref. 1) Reference 5 explains that a range of damage may occur to aircraft that fly through an eruption cloud depending on the concentration of volcanic ash and gas aerosols in the cloud, the length of time the aircraft actually spends in the cloud, and the actions taken by the pilots to exit the cloud The airplane was re-engined with four CFM56-2 engines prior to delivery to NASA. |
Compared with this time yesterday, the live webcam Eyjafjallajökull frá Hvolsvelli suggests a considerable weakening of the plume
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@carmel
I expect that the insurance companies don't really have much of a say. It would be impossible for them to examine and risk-assess each and every flight every day and in all conditions, so the only practical way would be for them to cover all flights 'provided they are being operated "in accordance the regulations in force". It's very unlikely that they have any form of veto. If heavens forbid something went wrong they might try to recover losses from the authorities _if_ they could prove they were negligent in setting the regulations. |
Looks pretty tame this morning from this angle too - Picasa Web Albums - eyjafjallajokull_... - Eyjafjallajok... (as it did last night ... which seems to run against the NATS statements, but presumably they know better)
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Well presumeably all S UK airspace is not closed having just watched a KL 747 sail majestically along headed for AMS . Is it just certain levels or just departures? Or are we letting the cloggies do a bit of guinea pig work for us ?
As its track will take it right over London I am sure a lot of people will wonder whats going on PB |
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