Some points

The air we fly through normally is not always clean and often contains ppm of volcanic residue. Thi sis known by the large high altitude world wide operators who have to maintain planes and restore ash errosion and contamination (windows, leading edges, engine bleed and oil systems etc.

Through the collective data of the OEMs all operator warnings are in place relative to what is very bad and can lead to completely disabling an aircraft and the onset of the symptoms that forewarn this (see your FCOMs). In bertween this and quite, common in major erruptions, Mt Redobt,, St Helens, Pinatuba etc. are events where the engine or aircraft has to be taken out of service at high cost in order to return it to an airworthiness standard.

To both the aviation safety professionals as well as the operators this can be described as a Red (do not fly zone), Yellow (you may have imapct on your operation) and Green (normal wear and tear).

It was always the objective that the volcanolgists and meteorolgists would model the Red zone and Yellow zones make up in PPM and content and advise the operators where they would be at any given time so that safe and effective fleet management could take place. Obviously this did not happen in an organized way. We all share the responsibility for this in not anticpating this and for me this is especially troubling since I bear a large respionsibility in this.

Now we have the operators themselves absorbing the task by flying test flights to at the same time accepting some risk of increased maintenance costs should they encounter Yellow zones for any length of time. Always the intent is to err on the side of safety so do expect some diversions, and Air-turn-backs. Eventually the forecasters will better be able to antcipate these zones and the operations will be able to operate on schedule.

In is in the interests of all aviation interests to devise means to best meet the challenges including supporting both long terms research as well as short term management of risks.

With regard to all the comments re the safety of airspace to the south of the British isles has it not occured to the posters that the same islands are upstream and in a far more concentrated ash stream than the southern european countries and therefore the continued closure makes sense. Why be the guinea pigs with potentially the most damaging results.

DHL are operating a lot of flights into BRU tonight iso LEJ/EMA. Only problem they are all manned by crews who have been stuck down route since last week and all the replacements are in the UK / LEJ.
Makes me so angry I could throw the phone down :\

MPN11 - easy now I'd say most on here have multiple windows open at the moment.

My real concern is that if the BA's don't divert into 'open' UK airports the media is going to have a field day regarding the decision to launch, the decision to refuse descent, landing clearance etc etc etc. Yes, I know there may be constraint issues in terms of the number of stands at Newcastle or Aberdeen that can take a 747-400/777 etc. But the media won't see that.

And so the Public Relations war gets underway: "heroic" British Airways versus NATS (Govt) et al.

It's no accident that all major news channels are now running headline stories about BA's "determination" to bring 26 flights into the UK tonight. Including Heathrow and Gatwick. The story is being orchestrated direct from BA's Press Office.

Presumably it will be good for BA's business to be seen as the equivalent of an embargo buster. But what kind of signal is that as to the relevance / influence or otherwise of all the agencies and authorities so far involved?

A BA source is now saying that they are not engaged in a act of defience and the 26 flights will not be landing in the UK tonight.

Update on activity

Eruption in Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland

Current events

Deflation - 20 April 2010 13:30

Latest available results from GPS stations around Eyjafjallajökull showed deflation associated with the eruption. This suggested that the volume of eruptive material which has been ejected already, relieves pressure off the volcano.
No movements associated with the Katla volcano are presently observed.
Sound blasts - 20 April 2010 12:30

Heavy sound blasts have been heard and found near Eyjafjallajökull, especially south and east of the mountain, and more clearly after wind speeds became lower.
The viscosity of the magma from Eyjafjallajökull is higher than on Fimmvörðuháls. This enhances the explosive sound effect. Shock- and soundwaves are carried long distances.

Articles < Seismicity < Icelandic Meteorological office

Latest advisory image

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/aviation...1271763280.png

May be of interest to some of you that Heathrow Special are now issuing SVFR clearances for transit of the London CTR for 'normal' (non-emergency) aircraft again for the first time since this all started.

Hope this of interest to someone.

Chronus, there will be no money left to invest in anything. This total farce will finish us all off.

Radio Teelevis Eireann:

I suggest anyone who doubts the presence of the ash in the air goes to their local flying club or training organisation and looks at the piston engined aircraft that have, thankfully for the health of the club, still been regularly flying over the last 5 days in 20K plus visibilities at low level...

Unusual grey propwash shaped streaks and swirls are visible on leading edges and black propellors are grey. Fortunately these aircraft are cutting through the air at not much more than 100 knots and everythings at not much higher than ambient temperature. Air filters designed to cope with dusty grass runways are not presented with a problem.

I'm sure that many of us are presently watching those aircraft holding over the IOM and Liverpool trying to get to LHR (even the anti-spotters are secretly doing it). The commanders of those aircraft all feel that it is safe to land at LHR. Could somebody please explain why it is safe for these aircraft to land at other airports within the 'ash cloud' but not at LHR? Is the ash thicker at LHR than it is at BRU?

Meanwhile, the BA YYC-LHR flight is almost directly overhead a CAVOK LHR on a diversion to god knows where. Is anyone seriously suggesting that landing in Ostend or Brussels is so much safer than landing at LHR?:ugh:

I dunno but BA 038 just touched down in AMS and it appears that BA 206 and BA 9120 just made the turn toward SNN. BA 084 and and BA 284 are holding on either side of Eire.

Meanwhile, looks like the LH and KL flights to the U.S. have resumed...

I am sure there will be a few red faces in the near future in the UK aviation panorama for the decission made these days (or lack of). The press need to be made aware that the UK are using a different forecast to everyone else's this is why there are no flights in the UK. It has nothing to do with scientific measurements...

What would have happenned if 24 BA planes had landed at LHR without clearance??? Well you will never find out but if they had done it the restrictions would have been lifted much faster.

Transport sec and Chair of CAA making statement along the lines that airspace will be reopened from 22:00. Also 'The Met Office confirms that the current indicated no-fly zones do not currently cover the UK'.

Lets hope we can get something down tonight out of the BA 26.

Quick question...

This is getting very political; a battle of wits between BA and NATS/CAA/HMG despite what BA say.

Have been watching BA084 at FL340 in orbit over the Irish sea/IOM for the best part of an hour...whilst others arriving from the USA are heading for Shannon.

Could it be that BA084 is being used by the company as a 'fuel emergency' trial aircraft to force the issue and request a straight in to LHR or MAN?

pp

Watching those BA aorcraft probing the UK FIR with nothing else in the sky reminded me of the opening graphics on Dads Army.

I don't think you can practice hand flying in RVSM airspace these days...:cool:

At least three B744 Speedbirds still in holding, are they waiting for some announcement about opening EGLL? Is someone about to make a decision on opening UK airspace?

...Adonis says the BA flights can land, WW must have applied some pressure tonight.

All airports can reopen.

UPDATE
 

Apparently it has been reported just now on BBC News 24 that LHR will receive BA flights from 2100z tonight. Anyone?

It took two Cobra meetings to achieve this. Now they will start looking into responsabilities...

Well done for BA, at last some good publicity :-)

Breaking News on Sky News.

CAA alllows all British Airports to phased reopen from 10pm tonight.

I think its a case of showing aircraft flying round uk airspace then diverting to most other european Countries surrounding the UK to show the public what BA and others would like to do. No argument about continued flying in ash but one off positioning flights in cavok?> make no mistake the Government can't move the thousands of passengers stuck throughout the world....

BBC News:
BREAKING NEWS:The Civil Aviation Authority [not heard much of them during this] will phase out UK airspace restrictions from 2200 BST

yes indeed, it's a miracle. Five minutes ago it was dangerous and now its safe. This decision should have been made last week. A complete farce:confused:

I still don't believe it was NATS call; look further up the food chain.

theres another ash cloud heading our way....

gordon Nropwn "saftey is paramount"

all airports colsed till tomorrow....

and then....

a cobra meeting with the airline bosses....


Its all fine, you can all go flying. we still know no more about ash densities or AC engine tolerances, but its political suicide now so you can all go flying.

Its either safe or not.

If they were saying it was unsafe today, do we really want to go flying tomorrow just because Gordon Brown is down in the polls and WW is loosing money.

I really don't a few things about where we stand now.

Firstly, the decision to impose zero flow rates was not NATS' alone. It'd be foolish to use the ANSP as a scapegoat.

Secondly, the ash situation is no better in many ways than it was last Friday, yet now the Government, facing an election and some pretty strong pressure from BA et al, decide it's fine to fly now, but not then.

Not rocket science really.

Cynics delight
 

This will of course be most welcome news for all those experts who say that the airspace should never have been shut. Standby for the pious glee of those who never will be in a position to have to make such decisions but nevertheless try to talk as if they knew the answer all along.

Nice disclaimer from the CAA that airlines will need to conduct their own assessments whether to fly.
And about time they did step up to the plate - NATS are merely a service provider - The CAA are the regulatory body and should've been prominent from the beginning

louby

Risk assessment with this is exceedingly difficult because of the lack of concrete information. However, using some arbitrary numbers and a bit of probability theory suggests that the closure isn't the overreaction some believe it to be.

If one assumes that the probability of a serious incident from an ash encounter under these conditions is one in a million; i.e. the probability of an individual flight making it to its destination is 999,999/1,000,000, then you can compute the likelihood of an incident over a given number of flights. You actually compute the odds of having no accident then subtract, but it yields the correct result.

Using this method, while admittedly arbitrary, does yield some interesting results. Over the span of only 25,000 flights, the chances of an incident are around 2.5%. For 50,000, it's 4.9%. Whatever number you use, it is clear that the risk is not negligible. Here, I've assumed that a given flight is 99.9999% likely to fly without having an incident. The numbers get a lot grimmer using lesser figures.

I think what this exercise does do is to demonstrate the difference in perspective between those in government, who have to look at the overall picture, and the individual pilots here who would launch under these conditions. Individually, the risk is seemingly small. However, cumulatively, a somewhat different picture emerges. This result is not entirely dissimilar to the "tragedy of the commons" problem in economics.

Does anyone else think its a bit too much of a coincidence that the airspace opens just as 14 BA longhual AC arrive in european airspace with not a lot of holding fuel, and with WW in a meeting with Cobra?

In the absence of meteorological changes to the weather forecast altering the decision to keep UK airspace shut again tonight, why wouldn't people come to the conclusion that this has been a ridiculous overreaction now they've changed their minds?

How easy it is for you all to shout about over-cautiousness when, thanks to the regulations, there hasn't been a single incident. Well apart from D-CALM running away from some pretty bad stuff during one of it's flights...but that seems to get handily ignored here.

Perhaps those cocksure ladies and gentlemen amongst you, the armchair pilots and decision makers, would be rather more reluctant to scream for heads to roll if, heaven forfend, something came down in an unrestricted, ash-filled airspace, as a result of commercial pressure exerted on non-commercial organisations more interested in safety then profit.

To be honest, it's a little sickening how so many can claim to know so much about such a complex and oft-changing situation. We're clearly blessed with unparalleled levels of aviation expertise. Lucky us.

Incompetence At The Highest Level
 

Adonis (government) and Hutton (CAA/government). live on Sky and BBC. Squirming Liars, attempting to protect their faulty decisions, with the absolute safety mantra.

They and their cohorts deserve to pay a one-way visit to the volcano!

What precisely was the CAA's motive for this supposed over-cautiousness?

Easyjet to Luton
 

This was a test flight conducted by easyjet.

Finally common sense prevails and a huge amount of spin from Adonis there. Also interesting that the 6pm VAAS forecast from the met office hasn't materialised.

Do they need a motive?

Rather than wait for the weather to shift the volcanic ash, the UK government has simply shifted the goalposts regarding the UK policy on volcanic ash operations.