From Eurocontrol via Twitter

Lyon reopening + Paris for intl flights via southern airports with air corridor btw them and Paris see French CAA

Would love to know the hard data from airborne sampling on which these decisions are being made. Can't imagine why Governments aren't publishing it ;) Flying transatlantic on Wednesday (maybe); will be packing my PLB and checking seastates (currently 6ft halfway over).

I can pretty well imagine why the Govt isn't sharing, but I better not tell otherwise you won't be flying Wednesday :)

The decisions are being made based on the Ash charts that are published every 6 hours by the met office.
The same Ash Charts that were used when Scottish and Northern English airspace was 'opened' on an opportune basis as the charts indicated was viable over the past 5 days.

Of course the cynics on here who believe in conspiracy theories etc will try to claim that the Met office is being forced into doctoring the charts because of so called 'test' flights by the likes of BA.

I'd rather believe the charts than take data from one flight by BA as being an indication that is is 100% safe.

This whole episode is reliant on science - one flight over UK airspace is not sound basis for decision making and has nothing to do with airspace becoming available to IFR traffic tomorrow.

Eurocontrol press release
 

Revised approach to air traffic affected
by the volcanic ash cloud
Brussels, Belgium – EUROCONTROL hosted a telephone conference
earlier today between the European Commission, several European
States, Air Navigation Service Providers and technical experts.
The conference concluded that, while the initial reaction by the States
was prudent and reduced risk to an absolute minimum, it was now time
to move towards a harmonized European approach (set out below) that
permitted flights – but only where safety was not compromised.
This conclusion was submitted to the meeting of European Transport
Ministers this afternoon and was adopted.
Accordingly a limited “No-fly zone” will be established by the States
concerned, based on forecasts from the VAAC. EUROCONTROL will
provide the data and the forecast to States every 6 hours.
Aircraft Operators will be permitted to operate outside this zone. In their
decision as to whether to fly, they will be supported by shared data
including advice from the scientific community (meteo, volcanic ash
proliferation etc.) – including safety assessments supported by tests
under the oversight of the competent Safety Authorities.
Member States have been asked to formally confirm their agreement.
Meanwhile EUROCONTROL will start the provisional application of this
approach.
In addition the ICAO European and North Atlantic Office are organising
a meeting to consider the effects on the North Atlantic Region.
These actions will be implemented as soon as possible and, in any
case, by 06:00 UTC tomorrow morning.
The conference also concluded that, in time, it should be possible to
move towards an approach in which full discretion is given to Aircraft
Operators.

From eurocontrol.int

the airlines are crying about losing a bit of money. WAAHH!!!. they obviously dont' care about people's safety.


EU ministers strike deal to reduce ash no-fly zone
"The European Union reached a deal on Monday to cut the size of a no-fly zone caused by a cloud of ash from an Icelandic volcano, under pressure from frustrated airlines losing $250 million a day."

"Expert" PPrune Contributors.
 

A lot of nervy scaremongers have gone very quiet. Now why would that be?

They had all the plausible arguments for the huge risks and dangers attached to going flying within 1000nm of that wicked volcano.

Many of us have operated within 25nm of active volcanoes in theatres of operation like Indonesia, Sicily, and Iceland. Not forgetting Mexico and Western USA/Canada.

I suspect there's not a professional pilot among the naysayers who have suddenly gone mute. And the truth is that there's nothing they resent more than opinions from opinionated pilots which concern operating commercial aircraft. Chumps!:)

Yeah, they just can't wait to start losing aircraft; that's exactly what they are hoping for...

Really, why do these idiots crawl out the woodwork every time something big happens?

ETOPS anyone? 4 engines better.....
 

Airbus girl, on a previous post, invites us to consult Boeing's advice with regard to meeting volcanic contributions to the atmosphere.

Boeing says "Flight crew should note that airborne weather radar is INEFFECTIVE for distinguishing ash and small dust particles.

"If you do fly into volcanic ash, the engines may respond by surging, torching from the tailpipe, and flameouts can occur...."

"If ash fouls the pitot tube, the IAS can decrease or fluctuate erratically...."

So Boeing recommends, if finding oneself in a volcanic ash cloud, the following steps:

1) Reduce thrust
2) Turn off auto throttle
3) Exit, with 180 degree DESCENDING turn
4) Turn on anti- ice systems
5) Start the APU for systems power
6) Crew Oxygen may be needed
7) Try to start the engines
8) Monitor EGT
9) Fly by a/s and pitch attitude.

There you go boys, now you know what to do....

However, as a previous poster has pointed out, the permission for 777 and 767 to fly across vast ocean spaces with 2 engines is relying on past experience of hardly ever having 2 donkeys stop breathing at once.......

Other posters have warned that the gradual failure over time of a jet engine may be greatly accelerated with volcanic glass ingestion, one vulcanologist has compared the action of an Icelandic volcano blasting off under a glacier to pouring water on a chip pan fire, this being one of the reasons not all volcano dust is the same.

If the airlines and the pilots and the pax are just too antsy to wait for the upper winds to change, perhaps would it be wise to stick to 4 engines, two of which are changed after relatively short exposure to interesting conditions, and the other two run for longer.....

Norway FIR has been open for TFC today, and quite a few flights from Keflavik and the US has reached Oslo. Norwegian Air Shuttle is flyging to GCLP at FL400 above the VA with 2 or 3 flights afternoon evening, with SAS stating they will overfly above 370 tomorrow to destinations south if the cloud.

Actually Roy the Finish and German pilots unions in particular are not too happy to be asked to fly.

Mods seem to be very active on this forum, good job.

As I was going to reply to tcmel, Peno and vlieger, I noticed that their post had been deleted.

Yet, fortunately there is no second volcanic eruption going on in Iceland.

I would like to point you at another thread on Pprune about volcanic ash considerations but in relation to helicopter traffic.

Helicopters and Volcanic Ash?

Lets hope the mountain shuts up soon.

latest map from met office

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/aviation...1271698103.png

erupting again to between fl100 and fl150

UPDATE 18.30 CET: Airspace open in CZ Balkans BG HU, southern IT and FR, GR PO PTSL ES TR NO and parts of SE

UPDATE 18.30 CET: Airspace closed in BE DK EE FI DE IR NL RO CH, parts of UA and UK but new process in place to speed up opening

EUROCONTROL via Twitter

Just, five minutes ago had a 737 over the top, looked like inbound Liege - probably TNT. At around 1745 heard a jet overhead but not seen and before that heard what sounded like an An12 droning. This is between Eindhoven and Maastricht in NL between Belgium and Germany.

erupting again to between fl100 and fl150

Yes, but all reports have it as steam/lava primarily, not the odious ash...

Roy Hudd:



The naysayers like me are simply applying the precautionary principle. Would you rather lose a weeks pay or watch your fleet become progressively grounded by a lack of engines with working hot sections and lose all your pay perhaps permanently?

Until you can be satisfied it is safe to do so, and demonstrate that it is not going to be financial suicde from an engine maintenance perspective, you cannot fly.

No one to my knowledge has developed a model of what is a "safe" ash concentration that can be digested by a modern jet engine without unacceptable deleterious effects on hot section life...


Lets load some aircraft with the commentators here who bag Government, Airlines, Aircraft and engine manufacturers, NAT, meteorology bureaux, the ones for call for instant test results and African sand jockey pilots who have flown with Volcano plumes (VFR) and you can all go and do the test flights for us...

Certainly would want to avoid that lava flying around between FL100 and FL150, in fact I don't mind flying around in the ash if that's the alternative:*

I was ridiculed in the pub on Friday...and banned from this site on Saturday for daring to suggest that maybe...just maybe ...the predictions of 'Doom if you fly' were over the top. But that is not an issue to me now (and hopefully not to the admin :ok:)

However,will we ever have a better chance of studying this situation again without the crisis which is still continuing? I doubt it. But hopefully heads will not roll as l'm sure that all the NATS,MET Office etc etc personnal do a fine job and they also need to learn from this...so no witch-hunt please.

I am due to fly from Manchester to Dubai with Emirates on Thursday afternoon.

I have everything crossed :\

3-d or 2-d no-fly zone?
 

It'll be interesting to see what airspace is closed and how big the buffer is - will it be 2-d or 3-d (i.e. only certain FLs) that will be closed?

Boys and Girls a bit of the topic and might be a stupid question, is there such a thing as a PPM (sand) used by engine manufactures for certification. I have never heard of it but I am assured there is.

We will, but you guys won't be satisfied before one/all of our engines goes quiet. You're in for a looong wait there on the ground :ok:

Well, even if it was, it would be completely unrelated, as volcanic ash is not sand, and sand is not volcanic ash. They have vastly different properties in a jet engine.

afterthoughts
 

Now that it looks like we all are a little bit more sure of our jobs, some considerations.

Was the closure a conservative decision?: I think it was.

Was it too conservative?
I think is wasn't; we simply did not no enough about this ash-thing which notably never affected Europe this way since the jet era.

Do we need to improve the way we deal with it in the future and make it more dynamic as per the Eurocontrol press release?
Absolutely, even the beancounters may now be convinced of spending money on that.

However:
CEO's flying "test" flights (without measuring equipment, i.e. if they would have damaged the engines we would not know what concentration and type of ash did that, where and when) may have a case at this time, but consider this:

Suppose the METOffice, NATS, or Eurocontrol would have come up with a plan to create a grid of LIDARs in Europe, have a number of specialized aircraft at standby, and of course hire the people to gather, analyse and conclude from the data they produce. Suppose they would have suggested to pay for this trough an extra "volcanic observation charge". Would the airlines have agreed to this two weeks ago?

Hopefully, they will now, so that we can indeed fly around actual ash in stead of our best possible prediction.

Lets get back to what everyone (ANSPs, METOffice and Eurocontrol included) wants, flying tubes of aluminium through a superheated vapor!

00nix

Very interesting post, but I have a practical question. Most probably will fly again from tomorrow on and this in the "affected" areas. Where do we find updated and accurate charts/pictures/forecasts about this ash cloud over Europe?

There are three key principles we are working on:

1. there can be no compromise on safety;
RIGHT. NOTHING IS MORE IMPORTANT. WELL EXCEPT MAYBE PROFITS.

2. the work must be based on scientific evidence;
AND IF THERE IS NONE THAN THERE IS OBVIOUSLY NO PROBLEM.

3. we must facilite co-ordinated European solutions if we are to find a way forwards.
TRANSLATION: YOU NEED TO DO WHAT THE AIRLINES TELL YOU TO DO OR YOU WILL BE LOOKING FOR ANOTHER JOB.

4. AND IF THE JAA OPENS THE AIRSPACE SAYING IT IS SAFE ENOUGH THE AIRLINES ARE NO LONGER CULPABLE FOR ANY ACCIDENTS. THE GOVERNMENT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY DEATHS, ACCIDENTS OR INJURIES. HEY, THEY ARE THE REGULATORS, THE AIRLINES JUST PROVIDE A SERVICE.

Minedog...try this link to MET Office ash updates

Met Office: Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres

Halfnut,

Did you manage to write that all by yourself or did an idiot help you with it ?

Update to Volcanic Ash Plume — 1855 on Monday 19 April 2010

Volcanic ash can be seen spreading southwards from Iceland (shown as a plume of orange and red colours on the satellite imagery). Up to date information from the Icelandic Met Office suggests the volcano is now erupting ash to a height of between 3 and 5 Km. Issued at 1854 on Mon 19 Apr 2010.

Met Office: Icelandic volcano blog

God save us...
 

... from the "expert" on the early evening news, who said something like "if an aircraft flies through volcanic ash, then all the engines will fail, it will crash and everyone on board will die" - rather an alarmist generalisation, I would suggest :mad:

how much pressure will pilots be under now ? assuming they have final say on safety ? is it still ok these days for a pilot to say no - that route at that time is unsafe ?

mystic meg, I was also shocked by this statement from, I believe, a mechanical engineer! Be interesting to see if the Beeb rerun the clip on the later news.

Eurocrats say "as you were"
 

According to the Times: "Airspace over Britain will progressively reopen tomorrow starting at 7am, with a dramatic reduction in the no-fly zone over Europe agreed by EU transport ministers after a video conference this afternoon. "

Translation: "the cost of the shutdown has now exceeded the cost of a downed aircraft so its time to get back to work - at least until the first one comes down".

Eurocrats on CNN claiming they are opening airspace "on a scientific" basis, as well as claiming unity (and peace?) amongst European nations.

When questioned about the scientific basis, the babble began flowing about how they've managed to defuse any responsibility completely so nobody will know who actually made the decision!!!

Immediately followed by a Guy from Cranfield University that dryly observes that after fligts these last days the ash if anything as become MORE dense up there over the UK. :ok:

BBC News - Iceland volcano in maps

Wonder who was that flying into Denmark.

Roy Hudd et al,

maybe the reason the naysayers have gone quiet is because there is nothing to add at this moment. The reason airspace is becoming available is becasue the Ash Charts, produced every 6 hours, show a reduction in the extent and coverage of the ash cloud.

A reduction that is totally in line with the fact that scientists have been saying over the past two days that the intensity and frequency of eruptions has been falling.

The return of airspace has nothng whatsoever to do with the publicity stunt flight by BA which has as much scientific credential as a Loreal shampoo advert.

Does anyone have any news what the Canadians are doing about their visit from the ash yet?

what do people make of the latest metoffice press release ?

Met Office: Icelandic volcano eruption

Volcanic ash cloud
 

That LHR will likely not reopen on tuesday evening! However, if the wind over Iceland changes as expected tonight then an opening by say wednesday p.m. is probably reasonable.

Cranfield University understanding of "URGENT"
 

AEST,

Cranfield University are known to be somewhat slow, as they have already taken three years to identify the toxic chemicals in visible oil fumes in a BAe 146 on the ground.

The Cranfield University report into airline Cabin Air Quality

Maybe they will tell us on election day - 6th May?

DB :oh: