---

---

---

I'm surprised no one has mentioned the times article reporting that Brussels has banned easa from cooperating with the ukcaa on post Brexit arrangements.

---

---

Thus, we had from The Times the claim that "Brussels bars aviation chiefs from preparing for no-deal", based on an unconfirmed assertion that the European Commission had intervened after the aerospace industry had contacted Barnier, specifically to prevent EASA and the CAA from holding talks.

However, had the paper taken more note of what I had written in my second piece, they would perhaps have understood that – in the absence of a Withdrawal Agreement and the transition period - it is not possible for EASA to enter into talks with the CAA to secure the optimum outcome, a Bilateral Aviation Safety Agreement (BASA).

This, I observed, is a full-blown treaty and can only be negotiated by the EU and the UK government. And, to do that, they need to use the formal procedure set out in Article 218 of the consolidated treaties. Such negotiations are way above the pay scale of the agencies and, as with the broader post-Brexit relationship, the negotiation process can only be undertaken once the UK has left the EU and formally acquired the status of a "third country".

Failing the settlement of a BASA, there is provision within the Basic Regulation (Regulation (EC) No 216/2008) for inter-agency agreements between EASA and the "aeronautical authorities of third countries" (Article 27). But, once again, the qualifying requirement is for the UK to assume the status of a third country.

---

---

Either of the above solutions, of course, as Dr. North says, would only be possible following a negotiated Withdrawal Agreement after which UK would become a "third country" and enter a transition period to 31 December 2020. A "crash out" Hard Brexit with no Agreement and hence no transition period, would lead to Aerospace/Air Transport Armageddon.

---

---

Prior knowledge of airspace and the aviation sector is an advantage but not necessary.

---

---

Even if Mrs May succeeds in managing an “orderly Brexit”, the manufacturer makes clear it will “refrain from extending its UK suppliers and partners base” until it sees how the new relationship with the EU will work.

The prime minister’s promised transition phase that ends in December 2020 does not allow enough time to prevent disruption likely to cost the firm billions of pounds in delays, lost orders and angry customers, Airbus says.

“The clock is ticking. If we decide now that we need one or two months of additional inventory because we are worried about these components getting stuck in the docks of Dover or Calais, then from a contingency point of view I have to do something,” Mr Williams said. “These are decisions we are in the process of making right now. We are in the process of instructing our suppliers to begin ramping up safety stocks of components.”

Looking to future production increases, he said: “The question for me is should I be doing that in the UK with all the uncertainty that I have? Or should we be starting to prepare alternative sources so I can protect the business in the long term? We have to look after our customers and shareholders.” Expanding operations in China was one alternative being prepared, he added.

The company says it laid out its concerns at a private meeting with Mrs May, also attended by Rolls-Royce and others, three weeks ago.

Greg Clark, the business secretary, is understood to have been pressing big companies to go public as he and Philip Hammond, the chancellor, fight moves led by Boris Johnson to push the government into a more aggressive stance in Brexit talks. Mr Clark cited Airbus in a speech yesterday as he underlined the importance of a Brexit that did not stop the movement of highly skilled workers.

A government spokeswoman said: “We have made significant progress towards agreeing a deep and special partnership with the EU to ensure trade remains as free and frictionless as possible, including in aerospace . . . We do not expect a no-deal scenario to arise.”

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

---

Then, there is not only the EASA aerodrome certification to consider. There are also the issues of safety certification of air traffic management and air navigation systems, where mutual recognition is required, and no agreements will be in place if the UK leaves the EU without a deal. Thus, even if it was theoretically possible for EU-based aircraft to land at Heathrow, that is not practically possible without the use of air traffic management and air navigation systems.

On top of this, there are the wider issues of open skies agreements and slot allocations, which also control commercial access to airports such as Heathrow.

Putting the fragmented areas together, it is very hard to see how, in the context of a "no deal" Brexit, aviation agreements with the EU can survive. There is bound to be a very substantial effect on European traffic and, because EU standards are linked with the US and others through bilateral agreements and working arrangements, transatlantic and Asian traffic may also be affected.

There is nothing, of course, that cannot be negotiated with the EU, but in the light of what appear to be deteriorating relations and with no Withdrawal Agreement in sight, the possibility of a "no deal" Brexit cannot be rules out. That would almost certainly bring international traffic at Heathrow (and all other UK airports) to a complete halt.

Getting the airport back in operation though would not be that simple. There is not one agreement to deal with, but a host of issues, including the highly technical safety issues, which require formal procedures to resolve. One would see pressure for emergency action but, if the EU stands its ground, it could be several months before full functionality is restored.

After such a break in operations, and the certainty that UK businesses will be looking elsewhere, it would be unwise to expect traffic volumes be automatically restored. Reduced trade volumes will affect freight and business travellers, while uncertainty over visas and freedom of movement will undoubtedly affect tourism.

---

---

Filip Cornelis, the director of aviation at the Commission’s transport department, advised countries to be ready for the possibility of the U.K. crashing out of the EU without a deal on March 29 next year, saying that they should consider their customs handling capacity and prepare for impacts on security, market access, safety regulations and passenger rights.

---

---

British Airways’ parent company, IAG, has astonished the aviation market by launching a new Vienna-based subsidiary airline with less than three weeks’ notice before flights begin.

---