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Originally Posted by birmingham
(Post 10120280)
This notification is simply a statement of fact. The UK government plans a bill to retain EU law for the transition period. The ECJ retains authority over certain matters in the transition period and any transition from EU oversight takes place gradually after that.
BUT ... none of this has been agreed yet. Both the EU and the UK would lose out significantly unless these matters are settled. The assumption is they will be settled. After all, disruption on this scale is unthinkable to both parties. BUT ... they aren't settled yet (or even remotely close to being settled) and we really need to get on with this to avoid chaos. In my personal opinion it will be impossible to do anything other than accept EASA for now. Our pre-EASA bi-lateral agreements no longer apply. Bi-lateral negotiations, open skies agreements etc. will take a long time - there is nothing we can do about other countries parliamentary timescales - and that assumes the political will is there. I think EASA in some shape or form with ECJ involvement in some shape or form is pretty much inevitable. |
Skyjob,
I do take exception to your overall assessment of older people (and on this forum many older ex-pilots!) resenting the EU ! It may be the case for some but certainly not for all! Some of us geriatrics are actually quite pro-EU (obviously some things are not right but that applies to many things!) Please do not generalise!! This is in part why there are so many disagreements. Let us try and get some sense out of it, we all need each other. Bill |
Originally Posted by Bill Macgillivray
(Post 10120585)
I do take exception to your overall assessment of older people (and on this forum many older ex-pilots!) resenting the EU ! It may be the case for some but certainly not for all! Some of us geriatrics are actually quite pro-EU
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Originally Posted by Bill Macgillivray
(Post 10120585)
Please do not generalise!! This is in part why there are so many disagreements.
Like many, I am one of those in a situation where my future at current airline at current location and therefore my livelihood and family life is at stake. And I did not get a vote, having been UK based for 2 decades paying HMRC to fund the economy and support it! But it will be my life, my family's life and livelihood at stake, due no fault nor choice of our own. Thanks you to the Leave Voters, I am sure I will be easily replaced by a UK version instead. |
The whole precess of the UK leaving the EU could be made a lot smoother but the resentment, anger and frustration from the EU side, is still very much palpable. Unless this subsidies, then progress shall be slow and painstaking. Hearing the very recent quotes of Tusk saying he is 'furious' about Brexit and Verhofstadt using such an adjective on BBC as 'stupid' to describe the process, shows the strong level of bitterness that still exists. This will do little to appease the politicians who are staunch supporters of Brexit and especially with the overflow of raw emotion and feeling from the EU side.
I get the feeling that those with any degree of influence and control within the EU, seem to be determined on going out of their way to make the Brexit process as complicated and as painful for the UK, as it possibly can be. The ramifications for the aviation industry could be significant but it doesn't have to be this way. It could be far more harmonious!!! |
Originally Posted by Mister Geezer
(Post 10120633)
The whole precess of the UK leaving the EU could be made a lot smoother but the resentment, anger and frustration from the EU side, is still very much palpable.
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Originally Posted by Gertrude the Wombat
(Post 10120707)
Meanwhile, back in the real world, all they're doing is waiting for the UK to decide what it wants. (Other than the free rainbow coloured flying unicorns which is all we've asked for so far of course.)
The EU will continue to exist regardless of how amicable future negations turn out to be (or not!) but one could be forgiven that the roles have been reversed given on which side the raw feeling seems to be strongest. |
Is it just me, or do a fair number of these Brexit bashers appear to be non UK resident?
Why do they care??? |
I now sum up the propositions which are before you. Our constant aim must be to build and fortify the United Nations Organisation. Under and within that world concept we must recreate the European family in a regional structure called, it may be, the United States of Europe, and the first practical step will be to form a Council of Europe. |
This is not a crisis, it’s just an administrative hiccup. It’s will be solved eventually and a pragmatic solution will be found. It is just a pity that some people find it difficult to accept that a decision taken by the UK electorate will actually be followed up by action. In this case it is to leave the EU. It is just a shame that the EU did not accept that this was a possibility. The writing on the wall was clear when the ink on the signature to the Maastricht treat was still wet. Despite our huge list of faults and failings, the British have a deep desire for personal freedoms and the right to self determination. We are unable to accept being ruled by anybody we can not remove from office. We are very pro-European and have proved this on many an occasion. On 31 December 2006 we made our last payment of £45.5 million clear our WW2 debt to the US and in March 2015 we eventually cleared our WW1 debt of £1.9 billion. And some of my relatives are still in northern France and in the Atlantic.
How we leave the EU is up to negotiation and the intent by both sides. Unfortunately there are many in Europe with short term, vindictive memories who would like to see us punished for leaving but there are also a great number of sensible peope who would like to see a fair and reasonable outcome. A good reason would be that we are the second largest economy in Europe. And damaging our economy means we will all suffer. So with my most optimistic hat on I envisage a reasonable outcome - eventually. But I’m under no illusion that this will happen in a timely fashion. The EASA are not epitome of bureaucratic efficiency. After all, why should they be? They are totally unaccountable and answerable to nobody. Which is possibly one of the reasons... PM |
Originally Posted by polax52
(Post 10121093)
Overflight is not effected in any way. Totally different convention from the EU open skies. I think -Chicago convention from many years prior to any EU agreement.
If one party renounces it (a years notice necessary) they remove overflight/transit rights for themselves as well as for other signatories over their territory. Canada renounced their participation in the ‘80s requiring them to propose revisions to all their existing Air Services agreements to include 1st/2nd freedom rights. That took quite a few years as I recall. |
UKs cards!
In a meeting last year in EU , Junker was making a plan to react to UK.
He looks around the table and asks every EU country to make a list of what they and EU needed from UK in the future. So as to have a list of things EU could not do without ! The room fell silent as everyone worked hard! After a few seconds someone concluded : Nothing! Gone flying! Cpt B |
Surely the UKCAA will issue an amendment to the EASA licence to say that it is now a valid UK licence? A slip of paper is all it would take.
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............and some sticky labels. Mountain - molehill - go!
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OMG
This is disastrous! We might have to stop flying in Europe, like the Americans/ Middle East countries and Australians do..... Hang on a minute............. |
To get back to the real subject which of course is Aerospace related. Whilst the fishing industry will benefit from Brexit, the British Airline industry and community will not. The Aerospace industry is significantly larger than the fishing industry. The phenominal growth of the Airline industry has resulted from the Open skies deal between EU and EEA nations. It is subject to the jurisdiction of the ECJ. The Open Skies deal came about largely because of significant lobbying by the the UK CAA and government.
In electing to Brexit we are making a national choice to leave open skies, EASA and the Jurisdiction of the ECJ. A consortium of British Airports said last year that this was likely to ground 43% of flights. This would lead to difficulties in connecting passengers to and from EU airports travelling long haul out of the UK. It would also create massive logistical problems having so many aircraft grounded. Obviously the final deal with the EU will dictate the survival of the British Aerospace industry. Wishful thinking is however foolish in my view. The decision will be made systemically not rationally. |
Originally Posted by jayteeto
(Post 10123895)
OMG
This is disastrous! We might have to stop flying in Europe, like the Americans/ Middle East countries and Australians do..... Hang on a minute............. Either March 30th 2019 or January 1st 2021, as things currently stand we'll lose everything and be more restricted than the countries you listed. The only exception maybe pre-existing bilateral agreements. |
Will regulation become cheaper or more expensive for the UK? I don't "know" the answer, but I certainly have a view. It is why the ICAO supports regional rather than state regulation.
I have absolutely no doubt that the UKCAA will be a gold standard regulator, but it won't be cheap and therefore "could" put UK carriers at a disadvantage against the shared services of EASA. |
Originally Posted by polax52
(Post 10124088)
To get back to the real subject which of course is Aerospace related. Whilst the fishing industry will benefit from Brexit, the British Airline industry and community will not. The Aerospace industry is significantly larger than the fishing industry. The phenominal growth of the Airline industry has resulted from the Open skies deal between EU and EEA nations. It is subject to the jurisdiction of the ECJ. The Open Skies deal came about largely because of significant lobbying by the the UK CAA and government.
In electing to Brexit we are making a national choice to leave open skies, EASA and the Jurisdiction of the ECJ. A consortium of British Airports said last year that this was likely to ground 43% of flights. This would lead to difficulties in connecting passengers to and from EU airports travelling long haul out of the UK. It would also create massive logistical problems having so many aircraft grounded. Obviously the final deal with the EU will dictate the survival of the British Aerospace industry. Wishful thinking is however foolish in my view. The decision will be made systemically not rationally. Not arguing....But just wondering what the evidence is for that, As far as I'm aware, the only UK airline which has successfully benefited is Easy, and even then to nothing like the extent of O'Leary's Flying Circus. But....How about my $10 against your $10 that not even 4.3%, forget 43%, of UK <> EU flights will suddenly be grounded come BREXIT day. The rest of your post, yes I agree.... |
Originally Posted by Hussar 54
(Post 10124362)
Not arguing....But just wondering what the evidence is for that,
As far as I'm aware, the only UK airline which has successfully benefited is Easy, and even then to nothing like the extent of O'Leary's Flying Circus. But....How about my $10 against your $10 that not even 4.3%, forget 43%, of UK <> EU flights will suddenly be grounded come BREXIT day. The rest of your post, yes I agree.... Regarding your other point, Britain has around 1000 registered commercial Airliners. The majority of those are benefiting from EU open skies. I'm baffled by your first statement, it's wrong. |
Originally Posted by jayteeto
(Post 10123895)
OMG
This is disastrous! We might have to stop flying in Europe, like the Americans/ Middle East countries and Australians do..... Hang on a minute............. |
Looking for the link to my previously mentioned point and found this interesting article:
https://centreforaviation.com/insigh...irlines-380522 |
Originally Posted by BluSdUp
(Post 10122732)
In a meeting last year in EU , Junker was making a plan to react to UK.
He looks around the table and asks every EU country to make a list of what they and EU needed from UK in the future. So as to have a list of things EU could not do without ! The room fell silent as everyone worked hard! After a few seconds someone concluded : Nothing! Gone flying! Cpt B And the UK will be the EU's biggest single export market after Brexit. Any significant loss to that trade will hurt them big time. |
Originally Posted by polax52
(Post 10124413)
That 43% was a figure from a consortium of British Airports, which headlined last year. I'll try to find a link for it. I agree that if agreement is found with the EU, which I suppose it will be(???), then planes will fly. The cost of that agreement would also, I suppose, be high.
Regarding your other point, Britain has around 1000 registered commercial Airliners. The majority of those are benefiting from EU open skies. I'm baffled by your first statement, it's wrong. As for the 1,000 UK aircraft benefiting from EU Open Skies.... Again, not arguing, but in which / what way ? I'm sure someone will come on very quickly and correct me, but at the moment I can only think of Easy who have non-UK bases with permanently based aircraft flying on a UK AOC and with UK crews, who have made the same success of EU Open Skies as, say, Ryanair, Wizz, Germanwings, Transavia, Vueling, etc.... Maybe that's just a UK thing, but EU Open Skies has certainly not helped the majority of UK airlines a whole lot more than good, old, bi-Laterals had the UK never been in the EU. If anything, UK airlines have struggled as bottom feeders from Eastern and Southern Europe have taken huge percentages of the UK <> EU market and beyond the EU. At the end of the day, I reckon aviation in general will not be hugely affected come BREXIT day, despite the EASA announcement EXCEPT crews and engineers who will have to decide whether to stay where they are now ; head for home from wherever they are now ; or up sticks and go to wherever because they like / dislike the impact BREXIT might have on their careers. |
Originally Posted by Hussar 54
(Post 10124518)
You're CAPA link is interesting - some articles definitely thought provoking, some absolutely not.
As for the 1,000 UK aircraft benefiting from EU Open Skies.... Again, not arguing, but in which / what way ? I'm sure someone will come on very quickly and correct me, but at the moment I can only think of Easy who have non-UK bases with permanently based aircraft flying on a UK AOC and with UK crews, who have made the same success of EU Open Skies as, say, Ryanair, Wizz, Germanwings, Transavia, Vueling, etc.... Maybe that's just a UK thing, but EU Open Skies has certainly not helped the majority of UK airlines a whole lot more than good, old, bi-Laterals had the UK never been in the EU. If anything, UK airlines have struggled as bottom feeders from Eastern and Southern Europe have taken huge percentages of the UK <> EU market and beyond the EU. At the end of the day, I reckon aviation in general will not be hugely affected come BREXIT day, despite the EASA announcement EXCEPT crews and engineers who will have to decide whether to stay where they are now ; head for home from wherever they are now ; or up sticks and go to wherever because they like / dislike the impact BREXIT might have on their careers. I agree with your first reply to me that this is unlikely to happen because at any cost we must obviously have a deal with the EU. If not the following Airlines, to name a few, would almost certainly be bankupt; DHL UK Flybe Jet 2 Easyjet UK Ryanair in the UK would stop operations If somebody could tell me that there is some other Bilateral arrangement that I don't know about then I'd be pleased to hear it, because I want to be wrong. If I'm right then for this reason alone, a no deal Brexit is unacceptable. Willie Walsh say's that anybody who believes the above is living on cloud cuckoo land, does he say that because he has to for the sake of the IAG share price? or does he say it because he knows there's going to be a deal? |
Originally Posted by Hussar 54 At the end of the day, I reckon aviation in general will not be hugely affected come BREXIT day, despite the EASA announcement EXCEPT crews and engineers who will have to decide whether to stay where they are now ; head for home from wherever they are now ; or up sticks and go to wherever Next door Ireland IAA might be an option, but heard only good things about Swiss FOCA. Any feedback available about the licensing work of this authorities ? Any authority that has a good level of English, and is relatively expeditious in their administrative work (something that is really not happening at the moment at the UK CAA) would do me fine ? |
Originally Posted by polax52
(Post 10124585)
Willie Walsh say's that anybody who believes the above is living on cloud cuckoo land, does he say that because he has to for the sake of the IAG share price? or does he say it because he knows there's going to be a deal?
I admit I don't know the intricacies of cross-border holdings in Europe, but I suspect they could get their situation sorted a lot easier than some others. That said, I'm pretty sure (well, at least hopeful...), that there will be a deal. |
Originally Posted by polax52
(Post 10124585)
Prior to open skies in Europe, Airlines such as Monarch or Britannia were only able to run charter flights to agreed holiday destinations. They could not just say we're now going to operate a scheduled service from e.g. Gatwick to Malaga. The bilateral that would exist between the UK and Spain would be the agreement that BA can fly a certain number of scheduled services to Madrid and in return Iberia could run a certain number of scheduled services to London. It is that level of relationship we'll start at when Britain leaves the EU.
I agree with your first reply to me that this is unlikely to happen because at any cost we must obviously have a deal with the EU. If not the following Airlines, to name a few, would almost certainly be bankupt; DHL UK Flybe Jet 2 Easyjet UK Ryanair in the UK would stop operations If somebody could tell me that there is some other Bilateral arrangement that I don't know about then I'd be pleased to hear it, because I want to be wrong. If I'm right then for this reason alone, a no deal Brexit is unacceptable. Willie Walsh say's that anybody who believes the above is living on cloud cuckoo land, does he say that because he has to for the sake of the IAG share price? or does he say it because he knows there's going to be a deal? |
zerograv
Could be you should check out the IAA Part-FCL licence transfer programme. Looks like the way to go for a lot of UK CAA licence holders. Irish border question could kill any possible Withdrawal Agreement and hence Transition Agreement, resulting in UK crashing out of the EU, midnight, 29 March 2019. I'd guess you'd want to be ahead of the herd, rather than trampled underfoot? |
Highcirrus
Thanks for the link. :ok: I will check that possibility. |
As I understand, irrespective of everything, the UK pilot licence will still be an ICAO licence after brexit right?
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Yep, but i guess the CAA have some significant work in transitioning from an administrative back to a regulatory organisation.
Alos, a bit screwed flying for a European AOC if you dont hold an EASA licence. Dont see many FAA licence holders flying for European carriers do you? But an FAA ticket is an ICAO licence surely? Estimated 1400 Brexit voters shuffling on a day at the moment. My prediction is we will be exited for 5 years max before the political landscape swings back and Gen X takes its pound of flesh through a reintegration referendum. |
https://ec.europa.eu/transport/sites...ion-safety.pdf
I guess one option would be to remain in EASA without voting rights, having no say in the rules or any influence and therefore having to abide by them. Which would be ridiculous for the country with the largest aviation industry in Europe. And subject to the ECJ, which I suspect the likes of Boris, JRM and others might just have view on. Is that what you Brexiteers voted for? The disaster that is Brexit rolls on. |
Whichever way people voted, I say the disaster is the way it is being negotiated.There doesn’t seem to be a single coherent strategy. |
It was 37.44% of the British Electorate that voted leave, not ‘the people’. But shall we stay on-topic? The Swiss participate in EASA without a vote. That doesn’t stop them from attending and ‘influencing’ the proposals which are voted on. I’m not certain if a consensus is necessary or if it is just a majority that is necessary. That option is open, or you could take your football and go home. |
zz9
I think Airbus will get a nice discount on the wings when they start making alternate plans,,,, Dont You!
Also all the Lego AB gets from a lot of different countries, are certified by EASA or whatever EU rule , not CAA. Any aircraft part is taxfree , so no, Airbus gets plenty of wings. With regards to UK being EUs biggest export market and EU suffering after brexit I think we were told at age 10 in school how that works. No International Master in Business needed for that one: Export and Import between a big country and a small, The big one set the rules! UK used to be a Superpower in aviation ,I read Flight International since ca 1981 and have a fair grasp of Aviation. As Base Captain in Glasgow for a small turboprop operator in 1999 I was in shock how incompetent some UK operators and the CAA was. Now the UK is a sad shade of itself , especially in the Aviation sector. EU has to fight hard for it future, quitters are never treated nice in any club. UK could have made a big difference in rewriting EUs " Future"! But always being a" Besserwisser" has backfired , Dear Old Chap! At best this will slow down Europe, including UK the next say 10 years. Worst case, UK stop existing! Europe will do good, me thinks. Good luck to all Cpt B |
Originally Posted by VinRouge
(Post 10126594)
My prediction is we will be exited for 5 years max before the political landscape swings back and Gen X takes its pound of flesh through a reintegration referendum.
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Originally Posted by FiveGirlKit
(Post 10131592)
Hmm, I wonder if the EU27 would gladly welcome the prodigal son back in 5 years? I predict that once left, it will take a generation before the EU will consider the UK joining again
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I wonder if the EU27 would gladly welcome the prodigal son back in 5 years? |
As a rarity in the UK at present someone who can see some positives and negatives in both sides of the BREXIT debate. I completely agree with the poster about the issue of licences etc as a bit of a storm in a tea cup. Licences will continue to be issued and will be valid. Some agreement will be made. Both sides have too much to lose otherwise. Once we put our one sided sabre rattling down its a very easy concept to understand. We all know that. The polarisation on this thread alone, on just one forum is a replication of the polarisation in society in the UK at present. BREXIT will go down in history as the milestone in the inability of British people to see both sides of an arguement. It's here it's now it's present. The indicator of the is the issue of a very blunt yes or no vote on a massively complex issue. And the reluctance in some quarters to logically and sensibly take a casting vote on the whole issue once we as sensible and logical people and "sabre rattling" "willy waving" and "whatabouterism" on both sides has desisted and genuine decent calm human beings are given time to read and fully understand what the relationship between us and the European will look like going forward. As human beings this is exactly the behaviour that most, other than those unable of critical thinking would do in every single aspect of our lives. Impossible if you are too busy trying to rattle your sabre higher and more vigorously than someone with an alternate view, l know. But the fact remains it's our normal modus operandi in general life. Polarised thought. Not our greatest talent. Anticipating incoming sabres from from both sides. The rare and sadly very small group of balanced observers are sat watching proceedings in berwilderment. It's like witnessing two tribes tearing each other apart. We are, as a nation, hardly covering ourselves in glory. I do not hold much hope for much agreement if the rest of the thread is anything to go by. If so, then just put my thoughts in the "another view" column and carry on the mortal combat. |
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