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14 day quarantine

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14 day quarantine

Old 1st Jun 2020, 15:09
  #281 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
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Originally Posted by Maninthebar View Post
...and I know...... (actually I do, early 40s mother of 2, off her feet for 10 days). Also we know Dominic and Boris.... but enough of that anecdotal evidence.

You may want to ask yourself why no other jurisdiction has gone down your suggested route. You might also want to read the minutes of SAGE meetings from January onwards in which questions such as yours were considered.
Dom had very slight symptoms and Boris was obese, a known cause of Covid19 mortality. Which is actually what I pointed out.

My problem with the advice from SAGE, is that SAGE contains nobody who is an economist or even looking at the economic consequences of their decisions and it also contained nobody who was in any danger of becoming unemployed by their decisions. Now you can argue that the Government should have been weighing those issues with the advice from SAGE but the political reality is that if SAGE had put forward a recommendation no Government was going to go against that recommendation as the political cost in not 'following the science' would have been too high.

So we are where we are with unemployment going back to 1930's levels and all the misery and death that brings with it.
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Old 1st Jun 2020, 15:16
  #282 (permalink)  
 
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Dom's lips turned blue (allegedly, evidence from spouse)

SAGE is tasked with giving scientific advice, it is true. Reading the minutes is a sobering experience - on March 3rd and 5th SAGE concluded that there was no useful purpose to be served by cancelling mass events, on March 10th SAGE concluded that the evidence of a benefit of such a cancellation was marginal. Cheltenham festival started on March 10th and is now widely seen as a significant occasion of cross infection.

SAGE did consider mental health effects (and the risk, incidentally, of social unrest - they concluded that we are a docile lot :-) )

If you are not prepared to read and consider the Minutes of these meetings then I do recommend that you consider why the course of action you propose has not been adopted elsewhere on the planet. Surely if it is obvious to you......
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Old 2nd Jun 2020, 19:40
  #283 (permalink)  
 
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Air bridges

https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/new...t-end-of-june/

Looks like it's not completely beyond hope. Depends on how the negotiations with the receiving end go though.
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Old 2nd Jun 2020, 19:57
  #284 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
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No its far worse....the UK daily infection rate is currently 8,000
Not sure where you got that from? DM? sky news? The UK has been hovering around 1500-2000 new infections a day and is on a huge decline like most other countries that have had their peak, 1st June was the lowest since around 23rd march. We all know them figures are not very accurate because its based on a tiny percentage anyway, however its still valid as a general guide of increases and decreases. We all know there is very good research that puts the UK total cases at 17-19 million infections since the start, at the start of April NHS England estimated at least 1 Million people in London had already contracted it, and world figures around the 220-250 million mark

This thing is as contagious as a common cold and we did nothing for months you really think its only hit 6.5 million people?

We should be protecting the vulnerable and shielding them as best as possible while the fit and healthy get to work before we all end up in poverty
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Old 2nd Jun 2020, 20:03
  #285 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Livesinafield View Post
Not sure where you got that from? - - - - The UK has been hovering around 1500-2000 new infections a day - -
Not sure where you got that from?
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Old 2nd Jun 2020, 20:06
  #286 (permalink)  
 
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Official testing results published from the UK government each day ?.... 1653 New cases today...1570 Yesterday
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Old 2nd Jun 2020, 20:16
  #287 (permalink)  
 
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Would love to know how so many people every day have managed to infect themselves in a Lockdown. NHS and Key workers removed from stats of course.
Or is that the elephant in the room?
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Old 2nd Jun 2020, 20:18
  #288 (permalink)  
 
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The official figures are one thing actual figures are totally different we all know there are millions and millions more cases than we know, but as long as the official figure decreases from testing then we are getting to a better place
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Old 2nd Jun 2020, 20:20
  #289 (permalink)  
 
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In other words, we have no idea.
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Old 2nd Jun 2020, 20:28
  #290 (permalink)  
 
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Well I guess so yes, the level of deaths is decreasing in the UK which is a good sign, another issue is there are so many people 98% or more that have such mild conditions they are never tested, but are still passing it on
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Old 3rd Jun 2020, 05:25
  #291 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Livesinafield View Post
Official testing results published from the UK government each day ?.... 1653 New cases today...1570 Yesterday
So, this number has no value. How many tests a day?
It would only be possible to know the new cases each day if the whole population was tested every day.

.
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Old 3rd Jun 2020, 09:02
  #292 (permalink)  
 
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Yes exactly, but we can't test the whole pop every day so can only go on what you test, and the numbers of infections from tests are decreasing and so are the deaths and hospital admissions
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Old 3rd Jun 2020, 12:41
  #293 (permalink)  
 
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We could test a random proportion daily, but the government is being devious with its numbers. It is including antibody tests and reference numbers in its capability, sending out batches unasked etc etc, and then includes NHS workers. It is likely they dont have the capacity to do a scientific random survey despite their protestations.

The ONS has a better handle on the number of deaths based on death certificates and as we know the death rate we can work back to give number of cases although there is a fiddle factor because deaths occur from day 7 to 60

At the peak we thought the total infections was 7 times the reported numbers. Now we think it is more like 4 times. So true infections in the UK probably 6000-7000 a day. A couple of papers suggest possibly 60-70% of people who are infected get NO symptoms.

Excess deaths however from Covid 19 in the mid 60,000s and when we add those who will die prematurely from delayed cancer and cardiac treatment we will be well over 100,000
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Old 3rd Jun 2020, 12:57
  #294 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Livesinafield View Post
Yes exactly, but we can't test the whole pop every day so can only go on what you test, and the numbers of infections from tests are decreasing and so are the deaths and hospital admissions
The UK daily positive-test numbers are admittedly of little use as they keep changing the criteria for testing.

However, there is now a population-sample testing scheme that helps us understand epidemic progress, the ONS has reports e.g. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...ilot/28may2020

The result is: the infection rate is currently stable. Not declining, stable. Now, stable isn't bad given that we will be seeing the first effects of the early easings of lockdown coming through now, but it isn't good either - because it isn't declining, and as lockdown is eased further, it may start to go up again.

So why are deaths and hospital admissions falling? - because these indicators lag infection by at least 2 weeks (more like 4 for deaths). If, as the ONS says, we are getting around 50k per week new infections, we will probably see (as our death rate is somewhere 1-2%, probably nearer 1%) around 750 deaths per week in a few weeks time. We aren't down to that level yet, so we should expect it to decrease until it plateaus out around 100 per day. If ONS report is correct.

Some are saying deaths will be zero by July, as far as I can see they are just extrapolating the current trend down. Unless the ONS is very wrong we won't be seeing that - if we were going to then we'd be seeing new infections falling to zero now, whereas ONS says they aren't falling at all.


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Old 3rd Jun 2020, 13:27
  #295 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by homonculus View Post
We could test a random proportion daily, but the government is being devious with its numbers. It is including antibody tests and reference numbers in its capability, sending out batches unasked etc etc, and then includes NHS workers. It is likely they dont have the capacity to do a scientific random survey despite their protestations.
Well ONS claims they've been doing one since April - which is exactly where the 8000-a-day estimates are coming from.

If they'd put more effort into that rather than the pointless pandering to public opinion 100000-a-day target, then we'd have had better data sooner - but public opinion was that "test test test" was most important. Testing of course is useless (actually worse than, as any testing process has risks in itself) unless you are going to do something with the result, and mostly we've just been doing nothing and testing for the sake of testing. Only very recently (outside the random survey) have we started testing the asymptomatic, where you can do something positive - isolation - with a positive test, testing symptomatic who aren't bad enough to need hospital treatment is pointless - they should be isolating anyway, false -ve rate is too high to un-isolate.
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Old 4th Jun 2020, 09:27
  #296 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2019
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MOL speaking sense again.

LONDON (Reuters) - Britain does not have a proper plan for its 14-day international quarantine and the introduction of such a “useless and ineffective” scheme will do untold damage to the country’s tourism industry, the head of Ryanair (RYA.I) said on Thursday.

Britain is due to introduce a 14-day quarantine for international arrivals from June 8 to prevent a second surge in the coronavirus pandemic.

“You don’t have a quarantine, people are going to be allowed to come in next week through Heathrow and Gatwick, they then get on the London Underground, the trains, the busses, the taxis, to get to their destination. They can stop off at the supermarket, they can play a round of golf,” Michael O’Leary told BBC TV.

“This is going to do untold damage to British tourism, the thousands of hotels and restaurants and guest houses all over the UK that depend on European visitors will be deterred by this useless and ineffective quarantine.”
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Old 4th Jun 2020, 09:40
  #297 (permalink)  
 
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So, History will note that the SecondWave arrived by air from June 8th, welcomed by the Government who created a meaningless and unenforceable non-quarantine.
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Old 4th Jun 2020, 10:18
  #298 (permalink)  
 
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O'Leary has his own agenda but if nobody would do any measure that isn't 100% effective we know now that the health service would be overrun and instead of the 10% of CoVid19 patients dying that needs it, it would be 20 or 30%. Quarantine depends on that the sensible 80% of the population follows it. The last 20% there is little we can do with except locking them up for the duration of the pandemic. Most effective way of policing the rest is naming and shaming they who brake it, like Cummings. If Ireland has a 14 day quarantine and O'Leary travels abroad and is swanning around on the golf course when he comes back, hang him in the press. Then hopefully most will stop following his advice on most matters, and others like him.

The best way for the airline industry to get back to something aproaching normal is not by throwing caution to the wind and getting everybody infected. As far as is confirmed less than 4% of the population have had CoVid19. and that leave a lot more to go. Not taking precautions will just create wave after wave and that will not encourage people to travel. And that includes those precautions that inconvenience the travel industry, including airlines. Some precautions might god forbid even cost Ryanair money even though they try their damndest to push those over on the airports.
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Old 4th Jun 2020, 14:13
  #299 (permalink)  
 
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The massive protests in the UK, the USA and multiple other countries aren't that much about human rights any longer, I believe. They are largely a vent for the tension which has built up in society during the last month. Many aren't going there to defend any cause but to vent out their overall frustration with the situation. I hope to be proven wrong but such mass gatherings might as well ignite the mass contagion which we just hoped had been avoided by the lockdown. And they will certainly cause further unrest in the sectors which suffered the worst from all the restrictions. If you can go to a protest with thousands of people, zero social distancing and no masks, then why can't you board an aircraft? Why can't you go to a concert or a sports event? Why do you have to keep denying yourself any contact with other human beings? Especially in the UK, where the road trip of Mr Cummings to Durham already caused a great number of people to ignore lockdown, things can get completely out of hand soon. I hope that the next weeks will prove me wrong, but this is not looking good for now.
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Old 4th Jun 2020, 18:02
  #300 (permalink)  
 
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I'm still curious to know what happens if you return to an airport before 14 days are up for a direct flight home. If one is fit to fly you then cease to be the UK's problem. Surely they wouldn't make you stay.
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