Originally Posted by
Livesinafield
Yes exactly, but we can't test the whole pop every day so can only go on what you test, and the numbers of infections from tests are decreasing and so are the deaths and hospital admissions
The UK daily positive-test numbers are admittedly of little use as they keep changing the criteria for testing.
However, there is now a population-sample testing scheme that helps us understand epidemic progress, the ONS has reports e.g.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...ilot/28may2020
The result is: the infection rate is currently stable. Not declining, stable. Now, stable isn't
bad given that we will be seeing the first effects of the early easings of lockdown coming through now, but it isn't
good either - because it isn't declining, and as lockdown is eased further, it may start to go up again.
So why are deaths and hospital admissions falling? - because these indicators
lag infection by at least 2 weeks (more like 4 for deaths). If, as the ONS says, we are getting around 50k per week new infections, we will probably see (as our death rate is somewhere 1-2%, probably nearer 1%) around 750 deaths per week
in a few weeks time. We aren't down to that level yet, so we should
expect it to decrease until it plateaus out around 100 per day. If ONS report is correct.
Some are saying deaths will be zero by July, as far as I can see they are just extrapolating the current trend down. Unless the ONS is very wrong we won't be seeing that - if we were going to then we'd be seeing new infections falling to zero
now, whereas ONS says they aren't falling at all.