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Ethiopian airliner down in Africa

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Ethiopian airliner down in Africa

Old 10th Mar 2019, 09:36
  #21 (permalink)  
 
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Calibrated Altitude

Calibrated altitude values reflect the aircraft’s altitude above Mean Sea Level, a constant value used in aviation and other applications. 0 feet/meters above Mean Sea Level does not necessarily reflect an aircraft’s altitude above the ground.
https://www.flightradar24.com/blog/t...ar24-glossary/
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Old 10th Mar 2019, 09:53
  #22 (permalink)  
 
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Independent of the cause of the crash, this must be the worst start of any new aircraft or major derivative in modern times in terms of number of deadly crashes and numbers of fatalities divided by cumulative flight hours? It must be worse than the DC-10, and second to the Comet only? Truly an unbelievable bad start for the Max.
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Old 10th Mar 2019, 09:58
  #23 (permalink)  
 
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Takeoff from a high altitude airport with limited performance is a threat, but these guys do this all the time.
As for MCAS issues, are there any MAX pilots out there not familiar with this?
My guess is we are looking at something else this time.
Not good news for the MAX.
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Old 10th Mar 2019, 10:07
  #24 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by SteinarN View Post
Independent of the cause of the crash, this must be the worst start of any new aircraft or major derivative in modern times in terms of number of deadly crashes and numbers of fatalities divided by cumulative flight hours? It must be worse than the DC-10, and second to the Comet only? Truly an unbelievable bad start for the Max.
Indeed. Probably coincidence. But if I had to board a MAX tomorrow I would be slightly concerned. Purely statistically this is pretty much unparalleled in Airliners in the last 40 years...
In Chicago there will be 'panic mode'.
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Old 10th Mar 2019, 10:11
  #25 (permalink)  
 
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We have no ideas beyond some possibly educated guess-work as to what happened here but I do have a question that can be answered by someone with the relevant experience. As a 10,000 + hr career pilot I'm not exactly a newby but have not any experience with the latest sophisticated systems being introduced on modern aircraft.
Q. Is there something preventing pilots of these aircraft from simply hitting a 'disconnect' button, listening for the 'C' tone and then getting on with flying manually ? Not suggesting that this is relevant to this accident.
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Old 10th Mar 2019, 10:13
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Bishoftu is more like 40 Kms SE of Addis. There is a town named Mojo (Yes, I know!) around 60 Kms SE of Addis. Bishoftu itself has an airport with a 2.5 mile long runway.
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Old 10th Mar 2019, 10:15
  #27 (permalink)  
 
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Per avherald:
"The last transponder data were received from position N9.027 E39.153 about 21nm east of Addis Ababa at FL086. Terrain elevation at that point is 8130 feet MSL, FL086 corrected for QNH indicates the aircraft was flying at 8173 feet MSL at that position."

Note that this data is very suspicious to me because corrected for QNH the aircraft hardly reached 500ft AGL at any time on the whole flight.
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Old 10th Mar 2019, 10:17
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In response to SteinarN's post, I initially thought Comet - but that of course was a cycles issue, so didn't manifest until some time later. The Lion Air incident is still being investigated, and this one is far too soon to know anything.

Watching with interest.
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Old 10th Mar 2019, 10:23
  #29 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by LookingForAJob View Post

I’m no expert on FR24, but the screenshots quite clearly show the level as ‘GPS altitude’.
Just for your future understanding of FR24, the type of altitude is listed above the value of the altitude. So it is Calibrated Altitude. The GPS altitude has a lock icon below, it is a premium feature and needs a subscription.
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Old 10th Mar 2019, 10:26
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Unless this accident is quickly proven to be the result of a different cause then the recent Lion Air disaster then its likely to result in a grounding of the type until the defect is fixed. If the cause is the MCAS again then a software update isn’t going to be enough, it’s back to the drawing board and no certification authority is going to allow it back into the air until the rectification is conclusively proven to restore safety.

Airlines are likely to ground their aircraft anyway before being directed by Boeing or their local CAA.
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Old 10th Mar 2019, 10:36
  #31 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by log0008 View Post
Per avherald:
"The last transponder data were received from position N9.027 E39.153 about 21nm east of Addis Ababa at FL086. Terrain elevation at that point is 8130 feet MSL, FL086 corrected for QNH indicates the aircraft was flying at 8173 feet MSL at that position."

Note that this data is very suspicious to me because corrected for QNH the aircraft hardly reached 500ft AGL at any time on the whole flight.
That has been corrected.

The last transponder data were received from position N9.027 E39.153 about 21nm east of Addis Ababa at FL086. Terrain elevation at that point is 8130 feet MSL, FL086 reported by the Mode-S Altimeter (which always measures to standard pressure 1013 QNH) corrected for QNH indicates the aircraft was flying at 9027 feet MSL at that position.
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Old 10th Mar 2019, 10:55
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https://et.usembassy.gov/security-alert-addis-ababa/
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Old 10th Mar 2019, 10:56
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https://et.usembassy.gov/security-al...-8-march-2019/

Event: The U.S. Embassy is aware of calls for a protest to be held on Sunday, March 10, 2019 at Meskel Square. It is unknown whether the protest has been or will be approved by Ethiopian authorities. Protests have already occurred in many parts of the Oromia region since March 6, and additional protests may materialize.U.S. Embassy personnel are advised to avoid Meskel Square and limit movement around Addis Ababa on Sunday, March 10. U.S. Government travelers have been advised not to arrive or depart Bole International Airport on Sunday, March 10, and U.S. Embassy personnel are also temporarily prohibited from traveling to Oromia.Actions to Take:
  • Monitor local media for updates.
  • Avoid crowds
  • Avoid demonstrations.
  • Be aware of your surroundings.
  • Keep a low profile.
Assistance:

U.S. Embassy Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

+251-111-306-000


Also:
Eyewitness: The blast and fire were so strong


Our colleague Jibat Tamirat from BBC Amharic has just spoken with a man, Bekele Gutema, who says he was near the crash site around the town of Bishoftu, which is 60km (37 miles) south-east of the capital.He says: "The blast and the fire were so strong that we couldn’t get near it. Everything is burnt down. The firefighters arrived around 11 and the crash happened around 8. There are four helicopters at the scene now. No one will survive."
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-africa-47513534
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Old 10th Mar 2019, 10:56
  #34 (permalink)  
 
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Unlike many african operators, ethiopian has an excellent reputation and a good safety record.
Was an emergency declared ?, my first guess for a problem so early in a flight would be possible fuel issues but until we know more we really have no idea.
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Old 10th Mar 2019, 10:56
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Originally Posted by brentford77 View Post
There is an interesting tweet purporting to be from the US State Department circulating on Twitter in which it advises American citizens not to arrive or depart from the airport in Addis Ababa on March 10.
I would not put too much stock in that. My American friends in a small Tanzanian town used to get alarmist emails from them on a regular basis.
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Old 10th Mar 2019, 10:59
  #36 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by The Ancient Geek View Post
Unlike many african operators, ethiopian has an excellent reputation and a good safety record.
Was an emergency declared ?, my first guess for a problem so early in a flight would be possible fuel issues but until we know more we really have no idea.
Judging by the FR24 raw data, propulsion or energy-related issues don't seem to be the problem, as the forward speed is rapidly increasing.
The problem seems to lie in the fact they were unable to convert the forward speed into altitude.

(Which may be related to a nose down trim runaway, indeed...)
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Old 10th Mar 2019, 11:02
  #37 (permalink)  
 
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Much confusing 'info' so far.

Flight radar seems to show the flight ending 20 odd miles due E of Addis on flat high plateau terrain at 280Kts having apparently barely achieved 500ft agl in all that distance.

Airline and media report the accident at Debre Zeit/Bishoftu, miles away in a completely different direction. Wouldn't they know where the accident occurred?
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Old 10th Mar 2019, 11:13
  #38 (permalink)  
 
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The RNAV SID calls for 10500' and max speed 215 KT on runway track before turning right.
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Old 10th Mar 2019, 11:18
  #39 (permalink)  
 
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Whilst Ethiopian have a good record they have had a couple when flocks of pigeons were ingested. I am not familiar with this airport but if they are prevalent that could explain the lack of climb
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Old 10th Mar 2019, 11:20
  #40 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by SigWit View Post
IF this is the MCAS fault again, then the consequences will be enormous, probably a grounding of the MAX fleet.
This is only the second 737 Max accidents since the aircraft was launched, so it is premature to be calling for its grounding.

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