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MH17 down near Donetsk

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MH17 down near Donetsk

Old 22nd Nov 2014, 01:58
  #1461 (permalink)  
 
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-it seems evident that missile came directly from ahead of the plane
Yes, I understand that. However, the flight path of the missile indicates that at least the initial part of its flight could have quite likely been seen from the aircraft by a pax scanning the ground ahead from a window.
Then there's always the likelihood that someone just happened to be coincidentally videoing or taking a photo inside the cabin at the moment of detonation.

Then there's the interesting point from Nikolay Istomin on his blog ..

SIA351 was very close and the passengers side had the opportunity to observe firsthand the catastrophe.
Of course, there is always the possibility that Russian security forces have been told to search for pax phones and cameras, and to ensure that when found, the phones/cameras and their memories, were "damaged beyond repair".
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Old 22nd Nov 2014, 13:13
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Originally Posted by onetrack
Of course, there is always the possibility that Russian security forces have been told to search for pax phones and cameras, and to ensure that when found, the phones/cameras and their memories, were "damaged beyond repair".
There is a far more mundane, but perhaps no less depressing, explanation for what has happened to victims' mobile phones and credit cards etc.

Humans at Their Worst: MH17 Victims' Credit Cards Used in Ukraine, Phones 'Answered' by Strangers - International Business Times

Any working or repairable phones found in the wreckage will have been wiped and overwritten long ago.
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Old 22nd Nov 2014, 22:02
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There isn't hard evidence that cell phones and cameras have been looted or deliberately damaged by rebels, Russians, Ukrainians or anyone else.

Rumors that rebels turned the black boxes over to the Russians proved to be false.

It is easy for speculation to be turned into accepted knowledge by repetition.
Flight MH17 Victims' Bodies Were Looted. Or Maybe Not. - Bloomberg View

Distorting the truth is easy, and both sides of the controversy are very skilled at that.
Perverted truth: How rebel mourning MH17 victims was turned into looter with trophy ? RT News

The family of Cameron Dalziel, a British victim of the crash, had to issue a statement through the British Foreign Office denying claims of theft. “We have had no notification that either his credit cards or cell phone have been used. They were cancelled for security reasons only, as you would when any card or cellphone is lost,” his family said.
Awaiting truth and closure - The Hindu

The fact that personal belongings were picked up does not prove intent to steal or destroy.
MH17: Looted belongings returned, says IGP | theSundaily

We can't confirm rumors about looting, but we know the investigators are not fully forthcoming about evidence. In some cases we know what they have but not in detail, like the contents of the cockpit voice recorder and flight data recorder. We learned long after that fact that they have recovered 500 foreign objects embedded in bodies and luggage. Even then we don't know the details. We're told that 5% of the objects contains iron, and we know nothing about 95% of the objects. Investigators knew about a victim found wearing an oxygen mask long before that became public knowledge.

We can't rule out the possibility that the investigators have recovered and are analyzing cell phones and cameras. Maybe some day we will know.
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Old 23rd Nov 2014, 01:10
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The Dutch are doing a fantastic job given almost impossible circumstances.

Also, credit goes to at least some of the "rebel" leadership for providing access.
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Old 23rd Nov 2014, 01:36
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Originally Posted by Oakape
I think he is talking about the possibility that someone happened to be filming either out the window or in the cabin at the time of the event. It has happened before & can be useful.
OK now I got it. Just out of curiosity, on which occasion has it already happened? I am interested.
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Old 23rd Nov 2014, 08:16
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RedBullGaveMeWings:

Just out of curiosity, on which occasion has it already happened?
One answer: B707 G-APFE, CAT Accident - Mount Fuji Japan, 5th March 1966

BOAC Flight 911 | Good and Bad Japan

"One of the passengers left an important clue behind. That person, in all the horrific terror that must surely have occurred, managed to shoot an 8mm cine film. Despite the fact that the flight data recorder was destroyed by fire, the film footage somehow survived the accident. It showed that just before the accident the plane was indeed experiencing severe turbulence. Debris was scattered over 16 kilometres. The probable cause given by the Aviation Safety Network was this: ‘The aircraft suddenly encountered abnormally severe turbulence over Gotemba City which imposed a gust load considerably in excess of the design limit'."
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Old 23rd Nov 2014, 17:50
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TE901 (Air New Zealand) at Mt Erebus.
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Old 23rd Nov 2014, 18:10
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.........and a creepy coincidence, the flight number was BA 911.
Even stranger is that after a fatal accident that flight number was retained, I last flew it with a VC10 in 1978 or so.
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Old 23rd Nov 2014, 19:38
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.........and a creepy coincidence, the flight number was BA 911.
Even stranger is that after a fatal accident that flight number was retained, I last flew it with a VC10 in 1978 or so.
Still in use to this day, landed at Heathrow an hour ago from FRA.
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Old 24th Nov 2014, 02:49
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I call BS....

I could be wrong about all this but are the 777 fans not about the same diameter as a 737 fuselage?!

Yet here we have a pic of two (possibly different) intake lips including a guy holding one up with ONE HAND, No matter how strong he is I have trouble believing that these are from a 777.

Imagine a 737 cabin layout in one of the 'crash site' intakes in this post, just look:


Now, realize that the guy next to the 777 in this pic is 6'5" (195.58cm) tall (according to the source)



I don't doubt they're nacelle lips from a crashed aircraft laying in a field which exhibit shrapnel damage but beyond that I remain to be convinced. Don't loose sight of the fact MAS17 isn't the first Jet Transport to be shot down in the region.

Last edited by PPRuNe Towers; 24th Nov 2014 at 03:36. Reason: Page shredding pic removed
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Old 24th Nov 2014, 03:22
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On pictures of recovering starboard side of the cockpit - is engine nacelle in pictures on the previous page from left or right engine? If it's from the left engine, and left wing already has possible missile damage, then the missile could have come down from the right, sawing off the port side of the cockpit and leaving the starboard practically untouched.

They need to reconstruct the trajectory of penetrating pieces to add any weight to this kind of speculations, though.


I mean people seems to be convinced that the missile came from directly ahead while all the damage seems to be concentrated on the port side of things.
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Old 24th Nov 2014, 03:47
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MH 17 had Rolls Royce Trent 800 engines with diameter of 2.8 m so pix on the previous page fit. GE engines are bigger - 3.4 m.
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Old 24th Nov 2014, 05:15
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@BATHIC

1) I think if a radar quided missile would have come from left or right side, it would have aimed more towards the center of the plane and not flying before it's nose.

2) BUK missile does not throw shrapnel backwards, only sideways + missile speed giving forwards movement to the shrapnel. So, the damage on the LEFT side of the plane's nose is not possible if the missile comes from the right side.

So IMO, it's 100% sure that the missile came from ahead.
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Old 24th Nov 2014, 05:32
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@onetrack

So far it seems the missile was launched 30km-35km away of the plane, when the BUK would have used it rocket fuel, it would still be more than 15km away. And there were clouds underneath the MH17. So, I would think it would need a little miracle to see the coming missile.

And the nearest plane was 30km away, above the MH17. After some 60 seconds of the missile explosion the plane flew roughly above the place where MH17 center body was going to hit the ground. If someone would be very carefully observing downwards from side windows, perhaps someone could have seen something in a distance of 5km+. Most likely also cockpit section had gone below clouds at that time.
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Old 24th Nov 2014, 11:11
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1) I think if a radar quided missile would have come from left or right side, it would have aimed more towards the center of the plane and not flying before it's nose.

It could have aimed anywhere, at these speeds an error of one millisecond means about 10 m off the target point.



2) BUK missile does not throw shrapnel backwards, only sideways + missile speed giving forwards movement to the shrapnel. So, the damage on the LEFT side of the plane's nose is not possible if the missile comes from the right side.
For the airplane the shrapnel cloud would look like a cone spreading from maybe 15-20m above the plane and covering plane surface area about 8-10 m in diameter. I can easily imagine this cone covering top and left side of the cockpit and then striking left engine and wing, bypassing everything on the starboard side altogether.


.. it's 100% sure that the missile came from ahead.

This I just can't see, especially the damage to the left wing, about 25 m away from the cockpit, something clearly piercing it at an angle rather than coming from ahead. I'm sure you know the picture I'm talking about.
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Old 24th Nov 2014, 11:19
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Because it has already been made clear by those who know this radar system that it is being misinterpreted. The difference between the unlocked square and diamond is that one predicts the location of the aircraft (which can not be found due to the lost transponder), and the other is the reflection of the no longer transponding aircraft falling to the ground (an active signal return). It only ever shows one aircraft and a prediction, never two.
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Old 25th Nov 2014, 02:41
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The difference between the unlocked square and diamond is that one predicts the location of the aircraft (which can not be found due to the lost transponder), and the other is the reflection of the no longer transponding aircraft falling to the ground (an active signal return). It only ever shows one aircraft and a prediction, never two.


If only that was so easy. Which one, predicted or actual plane, suddenly flew orthogonally to the original course, as seen in Russian radar video, while still being tagged as MAC17?


It is possible that radar kept tracking torn off pieces of the roof, which fell separately and quite far away from the rest of the plane, but that is just ONE possible explanation, not a known fact.


It needs to be tied up to Dutch investigation data - when, where and at what altitude exactly the roof was separated, and whether possible pattern of it falling down matches with what is seen in the video. Was the piece big enough to be caught by radar? Why did it replace the main body of the aircraft?


There's a lot more to either of these scenarios that can make them ultimately implausible.


There could also be information about military planes in the area but Ukraine managed to get veto power over what is released to the public and what is not, don't forget that aspect of investigation, too.
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Old 25th Nov 2014, 06:26
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>There could also be information about military planes in the area

It's 100% sure that there was no military planes above 5km, because radar does not show any.
Dutch investigators recently requested any/every proof from Russia of other scenarios than SAM being used, as they had so far none.
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Old 28th Nov 2014, 08:44
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Here is a video with the engine ring:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MQZn8G28n1s

As there is traces of blue paint I imagine some debris from the cockpit/plane body has hit it at some point.

Can anyone tell if that ring is from right or left side engine?

UPDATE:
btw. the left rear door (I think): http://pierrecrom.nl/mh17#pic-32
(The hole on that door most likely is not caused by shrapnel.)
UPDATE2: it's the right side rear door of the cabin, not left
UPDATE3: The door was left on the field, there, somewhere????:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B3YvSEZIMAAewo9.jpg

Last edited by sotilaspassi; 9th Dec 2014 at 12:40.
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Old 28th Nov 2014, 15:11
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wing-body junction

makes a fair radar corner reflector- especially when tracking from below and ' in front' . Prox fuse could then account for position of missile when detonated - IMHO slIghtly below port side.
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